The Fade: DraftKings Wild Card Weekend 

With only four games on the docket, Wild Card weekend can seem like a breeze at first glance. While it's certainly much more manageable than a full slate of games, it can be anything but a breeze to put together a lineup capable of making some noise in a GPP. A limited player pool will lead to plenty of overlap among lineups as the 'must-plays' and 'can't miss' players are readily apparent to everyone, making it all the more difficult to create a lineup that stands out from the crowd.

Even on this limited slate, we'll have to take a pass on some of the week's chalk plays and replace them with some lower owned players with comparable upside to give our lineups a fighting chance. It can be pretty tough to fade some of the top plays of the week with such a limited player pool, but the good news is we don't have to fade them all. Players that you have your heart set on should certainly take up residence in your lineups while you seek out some uniqueness elsewhere.

This week's edition of The Fade walks through all four of this weekend's Wild Card games to point out the players who will be on the short list for lineup consideration of many DFSers. Here's a sneak peek at our breakdown of the week's projected most popular quarterbacks:

QUARTERBACKS

Ben Roethlisberger, $7,200

It’s neck-and-neck between the week’s two most expensive quarterbacks for the top fade candidate spot, but we’ll give the nod to Ben Roethlisberger over Russell Wilson by a nose. The high-powered Steelers offense is one of the most attractive targets for DFS purposes due to their ability to accumulate a plethora of yardage and points. As mentioned earlier, the absence of DeAngelo Williams may actually result in an increase in interest for Roethlisberger, who will be expected to be in full-on air it out mode to compensate for the uncertainty at running back. Roethlisberger looks tough to pass on at first glance, but if we dig into the two previous meetings with the Bengals we’ll find that he’s only thrown for one score versus four picks. He may very well deliver a much better return this Saturday Night, but if we’re looking for a spot to separate our lineups from the pack, quarterback is always a great place to start.

Other QB’s That Deserve Fade Consideration

Russell Wilson, $7,000: The allure of a repeat of Week 13’s 34.06-point outing against these same Vikings will be a little too much to pass on for many DFSers this weekend.

Kirk Cousins, $5,900: Cousins is on a roll and comes in at a very reasonable price, which will inspire many to click the plus sign next to his name while finalizing lineups.      

You can check out the rest of this week's top fade candidates here. 

 

The Fade: DraftKings Week 17 

The final week of the regular season is upon us and it shapes up to be a challenging one with plenty of question marks on playing time for starters and motivations for teams that have been eliminated from contention. Despite the week's challenges, we can still find some success by following the same principles we have used to guide us through Weeks 1 through 16, including which players we may want to take a pass on. Here's a sneak peek at one of Week 17's top fade candidates:

Devonta Freeman, $7,600

The highest-priced running back of the week may actually be in line to justify his price tag in the expected shootout between the Saints and Falcons. Although Freeman has cooled considerably from his blistering pace in Weeks 3 through 6, he still offers tremendous upside and brings an average of 22.4 points per game to the table. The Saints defense has resembled a sieve for much of the season, including Week 6 when Freeman contributed 156 combined yards and two scores for a cool 38.6 points. Despite the hefty price tag, Freeman will be highly owned and for good reason – there’s a solid chance that he comes in as Week 17’s most productive running back. Difficult as it may be, we’ll have to consider fading Freeman for a little differentiation for our lineups. 

You can check out the rest of Week 17's fade candidates here.  

The Fade: DraftKings Week 16 

Each week, The Fade walks through the games, matchups and situations that will capture a ton of interest from a DFS perspective, in addition to the week's top fade candidates. Here's an example of one of Week 16's top candidates to consider taking a pass on:

Blake Bortles, $6,500

The forecast in the Superdome calls for points and Blake Bortles should have a big hand in helping that come to fruition. Sunday’s matchup between the Saints and Jaguars comes in with the highest projected total of the week at 52 points. Add in the fact that the Saints have been one of the most defensively-challenged squads in the NFL and interest will be sky-high from a DFS perspective. As a result, we have to consider Bortles as a fade candidate for Week 16. Matchup aside, Bortles would make for an interesting play as he’s been playing at an extremely high-level and is averaging 28.8 points per game over his past four. Bortles is one of those players that will be pretty tough to fade, but to capture a little uniqueness, we’ll have to consider going with a lower-owned signal caller. 

You can check out the rest of Week 16's selections here.       

The Fade: DraftKings Week 15

Still trying to decide which of this week's chalk plays you should take a pass on? Then check out The Fade for Week 15 where we go through each position to help you zero in on the players who will be among the highest owned at their positions. We also take a look at several of the key factors that will have a huge impact on this week's ownership percentages. Here's a sneak peek at one of Week 15's top fade candidates:

Devonta Freeman, $7,500

Remember when Devonta Freeman was lighting up the league and scoring 35+ points at a clip? I do too. We can fondly reminisce about Weeks 3 through 6 of the 2015 fantasy season, but the reality is that we are in Week 15 and Freeman has only reached 20+ points twice since then. We’re still being charged a premium for employing Freeman’s services on a weekly basis as he comes in as the most expensive running back for Week 15. Many will swing for the fences and hope that Freeman can capture a little lightning in a bottle against the Jaguars, but we’ll take a pass and save some much-needed salary cap space by pivoting to a back that’s been more consistent of late.

You can check out the rest of this week's fade candidates here. 

The Fade: DraftKings Week 14 

Trying to decide which players' ownership percentages will be through the roof in Week 14? Then check out The Fade where we help you answer that question for each position and take a look at several of the key factors and situations that will have a huge bearing on ownership percentages. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's top fade candidates:

Jameis Winston, $5,500

Winston and the Buccaneers have a date with the Saints, the darlings of the DFS world on a weekly basis for the opportunity provided to opposing offenses. The Saints have been absolutely torched by opposing quarterbacks in 2015 to the tune of 35 passing touchdowns allowed and an average of 301.4 yards per game surrendered. An improving Winston could have a field day on Sunday and will be a popular choice, leading us to consider him as one the week’s top fade candidates. The affordable price is extremely tempting, but there is a ton of value available this week (and every week) that allows you to zero in on your quarterback of choice. We’ll look for a lesser-owned quarterback in a solid spot to help separate our lineups from the pack.

You can check out the rest of Week 14's fade candidates here.

The Fade: DraftKings Week 13

Trying to figure out which players will be among the week's highest-owned? Then check out The Fade for Week 13 where we go through each position and analyze some of the most popular selections of the week. We also walk through several of the key factors and situations that will have a huge impact on ownership percentages for this week and how you can apply it to your lineup building process. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's top fade candidates:

DeAngelo Williams, $5,600

Williams remains affordably priced and will be a popular target along with the rest of the Steelers offense for a potentially high-scoring game against the Colts, who have actually held opposing running backs in check over the course of their three-game winning streak. Against the Seahawks last week, Williams contributed 117 combined yards and a touchdown, good enough for 24.7 points. Similar production this week would provide a solid return of 4.4x value – certainly nothing to sneeze at, but you’ll need to look elsewhere to capture a little differentiation for your lineups.  

You can check out the rest of this week's fade candidates here. 

The Fade: DraftKings Week 12 

Trying to decide which chalk plays to take a pass on for Week 12? Then check out The Fade where we go through each position and analyze some of the most popular selections of the week. We also walk through several of the key factors and situations that will have a huge impact on ownership percentages for this week and how you can apply it to your lineup building process. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's top fade candidates:

Brian Hoyer, $5,000

The highest-projected scoring game of the week coupled with the Saints struggles on defense will bring a lot of attention to Hoyer and the Texans passing game. A note of caution: we’ve seen several examples this season of struggling teams that come back off of their bye week and put forth an inspired performance. While I’m not expecting any miracles with the Saints defense, we can’t completely rule it out – especially with the Texans seeming to be such a chalk play for Week 12.

You can check out the full article here.

The Fade: DraftKings Week 11

Each week, The Fade goes position by position to identify some of the players who are expected to be among the highest-owned players at their respective positions. Taking a pass on a chalk play and instead rostering a less popular selection with similar upside can provide some nice returns if everything pans out correctly. Of course, fading a chalk play carries some risk. If that chalk play delivers a high-level performance and is nowhere to be found on your rosters, you'll come down with a serious case of Monday Morning second-guessing.

So how do we decide which chalk plays to fade and which ones really are must-plays? You can check out this week's article for the answer and a full list of players that deserve consideration for your fade list for Week 11. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's candidates:

Charcandrick West, $4,500

Speaking of value, West looks to be criminally underpriced on DraftKings for this week. For $4,500, you can purchase a back that will carry the ball 20+ times, receive a few targets and produce solid numbers. Yes, please! Unfortunately, West is no longer flying under the radar and should be one of the more popular selections at running back. He has seized control of the Chiefs backfield and is averaging 25.73 points per game since taking over the lead back role. The misprice will not go unnoticed by many as West is being widely touted as a must-play for Week 11. At $4,500, it’s pretty hard to argue against that moniker and West looks like a tough player to fade.

This screams out as being one of the selections that will cause a ton of reflection when all is said and done. Perhaps let the rest of your lineup for this week be your guide. If you have several high-priced players that you just have to have, West may be a no-brainer as he’ll produce and provide you with a ton of flexibility. On the other hand, if you have some under the radar low-cost gems that you’re all about for Week 11, take a pass on West and be prepared to explain your decision when it comes time to reflect on your lineups for the week.

You can check out the rest of this week's selections here.

The Fade: DraftKings Week 10

The Fade returns for Week 10 to help you zero in on some players you may want to consider taking a pass on. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's candidates for the fade list:

Drew Brees, $7,400

With the way Brees has been rolling for the past few weeks, he’s pretty tough to take a pass on. Over the past two weeks, he has thrown for 892 yards and 10 touchdowns. Washington also offers up a favorable matchup as they have allowed two touchdown passes in each of their last three games. Add in a projected total of 50 points and we find ourselves staring at one of the most popular plays of the week.

For the case against Brees as a top producer, we can look to the fact that the game is away from the comforts of the Superdome and that he is one of the most expensive signal callers of the week. Can we save some salary and find similar upside? A little south on the salary charts we have Eli Manning at $6,700 in a potentially high-scoring game against the Patriots and MVP candidate Andy Dalton at $6,500 as he prepares for a Monday Night affair against the Texans. We could even gain some exposure to this game and go contrarian by selecting Kirk Cousins at $5,200. Brees is a great candidate for this week’s fade list as we can find similar upside at cheaper price points.  

You can check out the full article here.

The Fade: DraftKings Week 9 

Worried that your lineup may have a few too many chalk plays this week? Then check out The Fade for Week 9 where we go position by position to help you find some players you may want to consider taking a pass on this week. A lineup full of chalk plays will likely not make too much noise on the leaderboards while a lineup full of under the radar plays is a very boom-bust strategy. Balance is the key and The Fade will help you get there. You can check out this week's article here.

The Fade: DraftKings Week 8 

The Fade returns for Week 8 to help you identify some candidates to consider fading for this week's tournaments over on DraftKings. Each week, we have several chalk plays that look too good to pass up and end up being among the highest-owned players for the week. Last week, Devonta Freeman and Todd Gurley looked to be stellar picks at the running back position. This fact was not lost on many and they were highly owned in last week's Millionaire Maker - Freeman at 44.7% and Gurley at 67.1%. Coincidentally, both players are at the top of the charts heading into this week as well. Is this the week to fade one or both? What would have been the optimal move for last week and how can we apply that going forward? You can check out this week's article here to find out the answers and to fine some more candidates for the fade list for Week 8.        

The Fade: DraftKings Week 7 

The Fade is back for Week 7 to help you find some players that you might want to take a pass on this week. Some of these players may be among the highest-owned players for the week. Choosing the right few to take a pass on and replacing them with some lower-owned players with similar or better upside can pay some nice dividends and help you shoot up the leaderboard. You can check out this week's article here and see if there are some players you might want to include on your fade list for this week.

The Fade: DraftKings Week 6 

Before setting your lineups for the week, be sure to check out this week's edition of The Fade. Each week, we go through each position to find the players you might want to consider taking a pass on. There are some tough choices in front of us again this week, but making the right calls on which players to fade can make a ton of difference for your lineups. You can check out this week's article here.

The Fade: DraftKings Week 5 

The Fade returns for Week 5 to take a look at some players who you might want to leave on the sidelines when setting your lineups this week. There are some tough choices in front of us as always as we have some top players in what look to be some pretty tantalizing matchups. When's a good time to take a pass on these type of players? The Fade has the answers. Each week, we go position by position to help you find the players to consider for your fade list for the week. You don't have to fade all of them, but fading just a few of them and replacing them with some under the radar plays can make a world of difference for your lineups. You can check out this week's article here. 

The Fade: DraftKings Week 4 

The Fade is back for Week 4 to help you find some players you might want to take a pass on this week. Last week, we suggested fading a top quarterback in an outstanding matchup. Tough choice, but ultimately it worked out pretty well. He produced but didn't deliver an earth-shattering performance. This week we face a similar situation with another top quarterback, but this time we may want to think twice before taking a pass. We explain the difference in this week's article. We also go position by position to help you identify players for the fade list. You can check out this week's edition of The Fade here.  

The Fade: DraftKings Week 3 

Each week, there are several situations that look pretty hard to pass up when building our rosters. This week is no different and there are several players that have earned the dreaded must-start label who will find themselves in many DFS lineups this Sunday. These players are perfect candidates to consider fading this week.

Passing on a must-play can be pretty tough as you fear you'll be missing out on a ton of points if you bypass that player. As last week reinforced, there are no sure things and some of the higher-owned players had off weeks. For DFS, the entries that looked the other way on these must-plays had some pretty good weeks.

Each week, The Fade goes through each position to help you find the players you may want to consider taking a pass on. Often these players are among the highest-owned players of the week, sometimes they're simply players whose matchups might not be as good as they appear at first glance. Some pretty tough choices this week, you can check out the article here to see who you might want to leave on the sidelines when setting your lineups.

The Fade: DraftKings Week 2 

Time to get our lineups set and also time to start zeroing in who will be the most highly owned players of Week 2. Typically these players will be those that are regarded as the week's can't-miss or must-start plays. Sometimes these picks turn out well, other times they turn out like Greg Olsen last Sunday.

The Fade provides you with additional information to consider while building your rosters and tries to point out plays that might not be all they are cracked up to be. Last week, The Fade pointed out that we might want to take a pass on Andrew Luck as he was going up against a strong defense in front of a rejuvenated fan base. That worked out pretty well. Luck produced 19.72 points on DraftKings - not terrible, but not enough to justify spending $8,300 on his salary.

New week, new set of players to drill into. You can read this week's article here and find some players that may be best left on the sidelines this weekend.