Tuesday, December 29, 2015

DraftKings Adds Lineup Uploader

DraftKings Adds Lineup Uploader

So this week, DraftKings added a new feature to their lineup management capabilities.  If you go to your My Lineups section, you will now see a new button labeled "Upload Lineups".  See Figure 1 below:

Figure 1:  The Upload Lineups Button (Upper Right)

After you click that button, you get to choose the sport and the slate of games from this menu:

Figure 2:  Sport and Slate Selection

Finally, the spreadsheet template is downloaded.  Just open it up (See Figure 3) and fill out your lineups, then save it. Once you have it all filled out, the "Upload CSV" file button will be in play from Figure 2.

Figure 3:  Creating a CSV list of lineups

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Week 16 Red Zone Receiving Outlook

Just like last week, let's take a run through the best red zone receiving outlooks Week 16 has to offer, according to my projection model. The goal, as always, is to identify the guys with the best chances of finding the end zone today and tomorrow. (Check last week's entry at the link for an explanation of the factors that spit out these expectations.)


G. Tate 4 24 9 5 1.08
D. Baldwin 4 22 11 6 1.00
J. Maclin 4 9 5 3 0.95
E. Decker 4 24 11 3 0.88
B. Marshall 4 24 6 3 0.80
A. Brown 4 22 7 3 0.75
C. Johnson 4 24 6 3 0.72
A. Robinson 4 24 5 3 0.67
S. Watkins 4 12 4 2 0.56
T.Y. Hilton 4 23 4 2 0.55
D. Thomas 4 21 7 3 0.51
M. Wheaton 4 22 7 2 0.50

Some Observations

  • Golden Tate is atop this list on the back of some good red zone usage, but also an unusually high success rate. The league average for red zone targets that become TDs in just a hair over 20%, and Tate has converted 56% over the last four weeks. Historically speaking, that's not really Tate's strength. There's a lot to like about Tate, but these results can skew his GPP appeal. He's more of a cash option than one from whom we can confidently expect a wild, multi-TD game.
  • This chart assumes Doug Baldwin will suit up and play a full complement of snaps. If that doesn't happen, expect Tyler Lockett, who's just off this list at 0.41 TDs, to see an uptick. He's already operating in an offense that much prefers to throw near the goal line; if he's the No. 1 wideout for the day, he's chalk you need to follow at just $4,500.
  • I like Michael Floyd as a GPP idea, but I can't help but note that he hasn't been a red zone presence at all over the last month. That's why I prefer John Brown, who's seen more looks from inside the 20 over that span than Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald combined.
  • It's odd that Dorial Green-Beckham has yet to see a red zone target during his four-game mini-breakout. But the imposing touchdown maker has to break out at some point. If he can paid a TD with 4-5 basic receptions, he'll hold tournament value.


R. Gronkowski 4 9 3 2 0.69
D. Walker 4 11 4 2 0.64
J. Thomas 4 35 7 3 0.61
G. Barnidge 4 31 8 3 0.57
B. Watson 4 30 11 2 0.51
W. Tye 4 25 4 2 0.42

Some Observations
  • Yes, you want Rob Gronkowski.
  • Gary Barnidge has an awful matchup with a Kansas City defense that can erase a TE, but he's a legitimate touchdown machine who should benefit from game flow. And Johnny Manziel has been throwing like a maniac in the red zone.
  • Two red zone giants in theory, Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph, have disappointed mightily in the TD column of late. But I like Rudolph's outlook against a Giants defense that struggles with tight ends, and Kelce is the kind of gifted option that can be squeezed into just about any GPP.

The Contrarian: DraftKings Week 16 

As the season grows long in the tooth, finding the week's hidden gems can become that much more challenging. That's where The Contrarian comes in to help. Each week, we provide you with the top contrarian plays at each position and also dig into the games. matchups and situations that just may scare off the masses and provide the opportunity to snag a high upside player with a low ownership percentage. Here's one of Week 16's top contrarian selections:

Eli Manning, $5,600
The absence of Odell Beckham Jr. will keep Eli Manning well of the radar this week, but the underrated Manning just may surprise many and continue on his recent hot streak. Over his past two games, Manning has thrown for eight touchdowns versus only one pick, 582 yards - good enough for an average of 28.24 points per game. Granted, those numbers occurred with Beckham at his disposal, but Manning has some other weapons to lean on, namely Rueben Randle and Will Tye. Neither player will ever be confused with Beckham, but they have combined for four of Manning’s eight touchdown tosses over the past two and figure to see a healthy bump in targets against the Vikings. Both receiving options come in at a low price of $3,500, offering the opportunity for a low cost, under the radar stack that may be one of the top contrarian options of Week 16.      

You can check out the rest of this week's top contrarian selections here

Week 16 Cost Efficiency Breakdown

Don't miss the Week 16 Cost Efficiency Breakdown, overflowing with DFS productivity nuggets like this one:

Doug Baldwin is still on the outer edges of value, but probably not while dinged up with a pesky hamstring ailment. He may even miss the game entirely. In any case, teammate Tyler Lockett is the preferred option by a mile. He costs $2,200 less despite likely similar usage – his respectable 19.8% target share over the last four games is likely to grow with Baldwin limited or out. Besides, Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson is adept at funneling the ball to secondary targets.

Short-Yardage and Touchdown Breakdown, Week 16

Since we crave touchdowns to swing our DFS tournaments, let's take a look through the top short-yardage (inside the 10-yard line) rushing projections for Week 16, based on the projection model I discussed last week:

J. Bell 4 6 22 4 2 1.03
D. Johnson 3 4 9 3 2 0.85
D. Williams 4 11 2 9 4 0.67
M. Forte 4 8 11 6 2 0.58
T. Gurley 4 6 7 5 2 0.53
S. Ware 2 4 8 2 1 0.50
J. Hill 4 18 3 13 3 0.50
T. Hightower 2 7 13 5 1 0.49
A. Peterson 4 5 4 3 2 0.46
I. Crowell 4 8 5 8 2 0.43
A. Blue 4 2 5 2 1 0.40

Some Observations
  • DeAngelo Williams looks to me like the easiest and safest back on the board, and the bulk of that confidence comes from his goal line capabilities. No RB has taken more short-yardage rushes over their last four representative games. And as a 10-point favorite, Williams is most likely looking at a game script that blows squarely his way. He'll be involved through all four quarters, and on all levels of the field.
  • Joique Bell may be back to relevance; he's the clear short-yardage preference in Detroit, and the Week 16 matchup is just golden. Over the last month, the 49ers have faced more short-yardage runs than any other team by a mile; opponents just can't help stumbling into the red zone. Bell isn't a strong bet for yardage, but his multi-touchdown upside makes him a deep GPP option.
  • Charcandrick West is the trendy Week 16 play, but Spencer West looks like a great TD bet if his snaps aren't limited by injury. He's been explosive up and down the field and successful near the goal line; there's real two-TD upside in a run-based offense looking at a very positive script outlook.
  • Some of the week's trendiest picks lack the strong goal line usage we crave. David Johnson has yet to see a rush from inside the 10 through his three starts. Neither of the Patriots' co-hammer backs (Brandon Bolden and Joey Iosefa) took a goal line carry last week, and Steven Jackson has been added to the mix, so have fun diagnosing that. And without Marshawn Lynch, Seattle has eschewed running the ball near the end zone, so we don't know how to valuate its RB options either. But all of that uncertainty makes me appreciate James White all the more - he's one of the few high-usage passing down backs who's also involved in the red zone ground game.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

DraftKings Value Plays for Week 16

Looking to maximize value for your DraftKings lineup this weekend? The staff at Footballguys.com is willing to help! Check out the DraftKings Week 16 Value Plays for all the help that you need.

Here are a couple sample picks:

Will Grant - David Johnson is still a great play at RB for cash games, even though his salary continues to climb. He's taken over the primary RB duties in Arizona and they are playing strong with a shot at home field advantage in the playoffs. He's a great play at home this week against the Packers.

Chad Parsons - The Browns have allowed the fifth-most points to opposing wide receivers over the last three weeks. Jeremy Maclin is reasonably-priced outside the top-20 receivers and has nine or more targets each of the last four games. 

Chris Feery - Randle has found the end zone for two consecutive weeks and will see a healthy bump in targets with the absence of Odell Beckham Jr. If he takes advantage of the opportunity in front of him, he could be one of the steals of the week with his low salary.

Justin Howe - This is still way too cheap. (Ryan) Fitzpatrick has been excellent at feeding his elite wideouts, especially in the red zone, and he projects to solid attempt and scoring totals in a mini-shootout with the Patriots

Check out the full article here

"Tips and Picks," Week 16 Edition

Every week, Footballguy John "tipandpick" Lee spends hours upon hours researching recent NFL trends, personnel matchups, injury situations, and various statistical databases to compile a list of players who are worthy of your attention on DraftKings.com. John evaluates those players and their respective projections to divide them into either cash game or tournament plays based on their salaries and game strategy. The result is a 5,000-word article that not only identifies the players that are most attractive, but details why they made the final cut. Footballguys Subscriber PRO members can read the entire article HERE, but, first, a snippet from the article to give you an idea of what to expect:

The Fade: DraftKings Week 16 

Each week, The Fade walks through the games, matchups and situations that will capture a ton of interest from a DFS perspective, in addition to the week's top fade candidates. Here's an example of one of Week 16's top candidates to consider taking a pass on:

Blake Bortles, $6,500
The forecast in the Superdome calls for points and Blake Bortles should have a big hand in helping that come to fruition. Sunday’s matchup between the Saints and Jaguars comes in with the highest projected total of the week at 52 points. Add in the fact that the Saints have been one of the most defensively-challenged squads in the NFL and interest will be sky-high from a DFS perspective. As a result, we have to consider Bortles as a fade candidate for Week 16. Matchup aside, Bortles would make for an interesting play as he’s been playing at an extremely high-level and is averaging 28.8 points per game over his past four. Bortles is one of those players that will be pretty tough to fade, but to capture a little uniqueness, we’ll have to consider going with a lower-owned signal caller. 

You can check out the rest of Week 16's selections here      

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 16

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of this week's player analysis:

Zach Miller - $4,000 @ TAM (5% Owned or Less)
With Alshon Jeffery listed as doubtful,and both Martellus Bennett and Marquess Wilson on injured reserve, Jay Cutler’s receiving options have all but dried up. It leaves Miller (who has recorded 19.5 and 11.7 fantasy points in his last two games respectively) a safe bet for six to eight targets against a Lovie Smith Tampa-2 scheme that historically leaves tight ends open to roam the seam between the outside linebackers and cornerbacks. For Miller to hit his target score in GPPs (16 points), he’ll likely need to score a touchdown. Chicago hasn’t been a frequent visitor to the red zone lately, but Tampa Bay has given up the eighth-most red zone scoring attempts per game this year and Miller has seen 33% of Chicago’s red zone targets over the last four weeks.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Christmas Eve DraftKings Sample Lineups for Tonight

Open your presents from Footballguys.com a little early with our Thursday Sample Lineups for Draftkings.com Cash Games (50/50 and Double Up).

Here's an appetizer to start out your lineups right:

QBS: Alex Smith and David Carr

RBS: Danny Woodhead and DeAngelo Williams

WRs: Jeremy Maclin, Doug Baldwin and Michael Floyd

TEs: Jordan Reed and Antonio Gates

Def: Titans and Steelers.

Don't miss out on a chance to put some extra cash in your stocking with DraftKings Christmas Eve contests.

Check out the other Christmas week DraftKings content that we have from Footballguys.com

Week 16 Punt Plays

Week 16 Punt Plays

Every week John Lee, Cecil Lammey and I (Jeff Pasquino) discuss our punt plays for DraftKings on The Audible to close out our weekly DFS DraftKings podcast.  These are players that we are looking at to fill in a last spot on our lineups that are relatively cheap.  We have all been there - we have only a few bucks left and 1-2 spots to go in our roster, and we need a good value play to fill in that gap.  The rules we play by are that the player must not cost more than $3,500.

Just like always, I can only use one on the show - and I am not going to steal the thunder from our three picks that make the airwaves - but I will share a few guys that did not make it for the final cut.  Last week I was off with my Vernon Davis pick, but I did go back to the tight end position this week.  Who is it?  You have to listen!  John did well last week with Reuben Randle, who now seems like a cash play this week with OBJ / ODB suspended.  So, tune in for my pick this week, and give the following list of additional punt plays for this week a read and tell me what you think, either in the comments or on twitter (@JeffPasquino).   Here goes:

Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers ($3,300) -  Chicago cannot defend the pass, and Sims offers value as a receiver out of the backfield and can run it as well.  I like his upside.

Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks ($3,200) - Russell Wilson is red hot and the Rams are not, so why not consider a cheap piece of that offense?

Nate Washington, WR, Texans ($3,200) - Houston has to throw the ball, and DeAndre Hopkins cannot catch every pass.  Washington gets a lot of targets in this offense, and if he scores, well, that's a 3x or 4x event right there.  (Yes, this is a recording)

Thanks for reading as always, and be sure to check out The DraftKings' Audible episode every week, and subscribe to The Audible on iTunes.  Good luck this week!

Monday, December 21, 2015

First Look at Week 16 Motivation

In the final two weeks of the season, figuring out which teams will be most motivated to win and which will consider resting players can be key to fantasy success. Here's an early look at what is at stake in each game on the Week 16 Slate:

San Diego at Oakland: Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs and just playing out the string. Oakland's ascending young team should be more motivated than the beat-up Chargers.

Washington at Philadelphia: This game should have a playoff atmosphere and both teams have everything to play for. Washington will clinch the NFC East with a win. Philadelphia needs to beat Washington and then the Giants in Week 17 to clinch the division.

New England at NY Jets: The Jets are fighting for their playoff lives and would face an uphill battle should they lose to the Patriots. The Patriots can clinch the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs with a win in either of their final two games.

Houston at Tennessee: Tennessee has long been eliminated and could end up with the first overall pick. Houston will be highly motivated however as a win would clinch the AFC South title. A loss and Houston would potentially face a win-or-go-home matchup with Jacksonville in Week 17.

Cleveland at Kansas City: Cleveland has nothing to play for but Mike Pettine is coaching for his job and Johnny Manziel may be playing for his as well. Kansas City badly needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the Jets and Steelers in the Wild Card race. The Chiefs also could steal the division away from the Broncos should Denver slip up once more and the Chiefs win out.

Indianapolis at Miami: Indianapolis needs to win out and get plenty of help to make the playoffs (Houston losses to Tennessee and Jacksonville). Miami has already been eliminated.

San Francisco at Detroit: Both teams are playing for pride at this point.

Dallas at Buffalo: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention and motivation could be hard to muster.

Chicago at Tampa Bay: Neither team has anything to play for.

Carolina at Atlanta: Carolina still needs one more win (or an Arizona loss) to clinch the top seed in the NFC. A win at Atlanta would allow the Panthers to rest their stars in Week 17. Atlanta maintains very slim playoff hopes. In addition to winning out, the Falcons would need a number of other games to go their way (including a Rams upset of the Seahawks and a Giants upset of the Vikings).

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The Steelers are well-positioned to make the playoffs with only trips to Baltimore and Cleveland standing between them and a top-five seed in the AFC. Baltimore would love nothing more than to play spoiler against their hated rival and should be up for this game (at least to start).

Jacksonville at New Orleans: The Saints are eliminated and Jacksonville is hanging on by a thread. A win by either Houston or Indianapolis in the early games would officially eliminate the Jaguars from the AFC South race.

Saint Louis at Seattle: The Seahawks will be motivated to keep winning to stay ahead of the Vikings for the 5th seed in the NFC. A trip to take on the NFC East champ is much more appealing than a likely trip to Lambeau to face the Packers in the first round. Saint Louis is eliminated from contention.

Green Bay at Arizona: Arizona needs to beat either Green Bay or Seattle in the final two weeks to to lock up a first round bye. A win would allow Arizona to rest players in Week 17. The NFC North will likely come down to the Week 17 matchup between the Vikings and Packers regardless of the outcome of this game (assuming Minnesota handles the Giants). However, Green Bay could keep their hopes of a bye alive with an upset in Week 16. If Green Bay falls behind by multiple scores, it's possible they'd rest some injured players in the second half to prepare for the big Week 17 matchup.

New York Giants at Minnesota: The Giants may be eliminated before kickoff if Washington wins. Or they could be very much alive in the NFC East race should Philadelphia win. For Minnesota, this matchup could be almost meaningless should the afternoon games go as expected. The Vikings should clinch a playoff spot before kickoff. Regardless, they should be motivated with the game at home and the possibility of favorable seeding slightly increased with a win.

Cincinnati at Denver: Another game that should have a playoff atmosphere, both teams will have a lot at stake. Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North and a first-round bye with a victory. Denver would put itself in the driver's seat for a first round bye with the win. The Broncos still have work to do just to make the playoffs and have a lot at stake in the final two weeks.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Week 15 Cost Efficiency Breakdown

Don't miss the Week 15 Cost Efficiency Breakdown, for a tour through the true value plays - expensive and cheap, high-ceiling and high-floor - within the weekend's slate. Here's an exclusive Cracking DraftKings sneak peek:

·         David Johnson will be in every cash lineup of mine that doesn’t feature Carson Palmer. He’s a near-every-down back in arguably the league’s best offense, facing an opponent that’s allowed 96+ rushing yards in 11 of 13 games, including the last four. I’d like to see some red zone usage, but I’m confident enough that the matchup will allow him to rack up 20+ touches. And Johnson is explosive enough in both aspects of the offense to create fireworks from that.

The Contrarian: DraftKings Week 15 

Still searching for some hidden gems to round out your Week 15 lineups? Then check out The Contrarian where we dig into each position to identify some potential diamonds in the rough. We also take a look at the games and matchups that just may be flying a bit too much under the radar in Week 15 and offer up some of the week's best contrarian opportunities. Here's a sneak peek at one of the players that made the cut for this week:

Ben Roethlisberger, $6,400
We touched on the Broncos pass defense allowing its fair share of touchdowns of late earlier. The high-powered Steelers offense could be a sneaky good play this week, especially when factoring in the possibility of a healthy amount of three and outs from Brock Osweiler and Co. The plethora of weapons at Roethlisberger’s disposal should be able to take full advantage of some tired legs on defense. As one of last week’s disappointments and with an imposing defense up next on the docket, many will bypass Roethlisberger this week, leading us to an intriguing contrarian candidate with plenty of upside. 
You can check out the rest of Week 15's top contrarian candidates here.

Red zone Receiving Outlook, Week 15

Yesterday, I ran through the top short-yardage rushing situations for Week 15 to identify the best bets for touchdowns. Let's take a similar look at Week 15's red zone passing outlook, with an eye on receivers who over over- or underwhelming in the red zone - and who'll find themselves in the end zone this weekend.

Note that the figures on the tables carry the same meanings as yesterday, with two exceptions: (1) TmRZAtPj refers to the number of red zone passes I expect that player's team to throw; and (2) I track targets from within the entire red zone, not just inside the 10. The numbers are gathered from each player's last 1-4 representative games (again, see yesterday's post for details).


Doug Baldwin 4 21 5.4 9 4 1.31
Golden Tate 4 23 5.1 9 3 1.04
Calvin Johnson 4 23 5.1 6 3 0.94
Allen Robinson 4 28 6.1 8 3 0.79
DeAndre Hopkins 4 17 5.3 3 2 0.60
Jeremy Maclin 4 12 3.3 5 2 0.60
Antonio Brown 4 27 5.4 8 3 0.50
Tyler Lockett 2 13 5.4 2 1 0.48
T.Y. Hilton 4 27 6.5 4 2 0.45
John Brown 4 19 5.7 5 1 0.40
Sammy Watkins 4 11 3.7 2 1 0.39
Brandon LaFell 4 18 5.2 4 0 0.37
Michael Crabtree 4 14 3.3 3 1 0.34
Ted Ginn Jr. 4 24 5.2 3 2 0.33

  • The bottom will eventually fall out, and the Seahawks Passing Parade will wind down. But the red zone connection between Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin has been so strong that the numbers want us to bank on it again. It makes sense against the Joe Haden-less Browns, and Baldwin is still priced a bit below his ceiling, so indulge for one more week. By this time Sunday afternoon, he'll be either priced out of his stratosphere or back on earth in a cheaper pool of boom-or-bust WR3s.
  • Calvin Johnson should be one of the chalkiest plays of the week, and I'm fine with it - he projects to 0.94 short TDs, the third-best outlook of anyone. But he'll draw a lot of doubling, and Golden Tate looks poised to benefit, even in the red zone. Note that Tate's projection is skewed a bit by a wild, dive-for-the-deflection touchdown grab from Week 12. It was an impressive play, of course, but it doesn't give us the best picture of Tate as a red zone threat. Take it out of this equation, and Tate would slot behind Allen Robinson at a 0.69-TD projection. That's still high, but it's not the top-rung number it appears to be. Tate is still an easy top-10 value option with or without the nutty catch.
  • Robinson isn't on a single roster of mine; his date with Desmond Trufant really dings his outlook. He's been awesome in the red zone, but I'm not paying $7,600 - more than I'd be charged for Alshon Jeffery - to hope Robinson can beat an elite cornerback that's allowed just one TD pass all year.
  • Surprisingly, Odell Beckham, Jr. slots 35th out of 43 in red zone TD projection, at just 0.17. The Giants have spread the wealth near the goal line, and while Beckham has dominated the ball everywhere else, he's been just another face in the red zone (just four of 23 team targets). A matchup with All-World Josh Norman won't boost that outlook.


Gary Barnidge 3 27 7.1 7 2 0.53
Julius Thomas 4 28 6.1 6 2 0.44
Antonio Gates 4 21 4.8 4 2 0.41
Jordan Reed 4 7 2.5 3 1 0.36
Rob Gronkowski1 4 16 5.2 3 1 0.33
Zach Miller 4 15 4.8 2 2 0.29
Zach Ertz 4 13 4.0 2 1 0.28
Delanie Walker 4 10 2.5 3 1 0.25
Travis Kelce 4 12 3.3 2 1 0.25

  • Antonio Gates has been ignored by DFS players lately - though not exactly by Philip Rivers. He's drawn a healthy 20.9% of team targets over his last four games, and nearly the same number in the red zone, A few touchdown-less weeks have torpedoed his ownership, but he'll likely lead the Chargers' high-volume passing game in usage, both in and out of the red zone. He projects to 0.41 touchdowns today, but in such an injury-depleted offense, that looks like a floor expectation rather than a ceiling one.
  • Gary Barnidge has been one of the league's most successful red zone targets all year, and it's carried over to his connection with Johnny Manziel. Over Manziel's three recent starts, Barnidge has drawn seven of the team's 27 red zone targets, scoring twice. The Seahawks field a fine defense1, as you know, but covering TEs has long been a weakness. Barnidge has as strong of a Week 15 ceiling as anyone not named Gronkowski.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

The Fade: DraftKings Week 15

Still trying to decide which of this week's chalk plays you should take a pass on? Then check out The Fade for Week 15 where we go through each position to help you zero in on the players who will be among the highest owned at their positions. We also take a look at several of the key factors that will have a huge impact on this week's ownership percentages. Here's a sneak peek at one of Week 15's top fade candidates:

Devonta Freeman, $7,500
Remember when Devonta Freeman was lighting up the league and scoring 35+ points at a clip? I do too. We can fondly reminisce about Weeks 3 through 6 of the 2015 fantasy season, but the reality is that we are in Week 15 and Freeman has only reached 20+ points twice since then. We’re still being charged a premium for employing Freeman’s services on a weekly basis as he comes in as the most expensive running back for Week 15. Many will swing for the fences and hope that Freeman can capture a little lightning in a bottle against the Jaguars, but we’ll take a pass and save some much-needed salary cap space by pivoting to a back that’s been more consistent of late.
You can check out the rest of this week's fade candidates here

Tips and Picks, Week 15 Edition

Every week, Footballguy John "tipandpick" Lee spends hours upon hours researching recent NFL trends, personnel matchups, injury situations, and various statistical databases to compile a list of players who are worthy of your attention on DraftKings.com. John evaluates those players and their respective projections to divide them into either cash game or tournament plays based on their salaries and game strategy. The result is a 5,000-word article that not only identifies the players that are most attractive, but details why they made the final cut. Footballguys Subscriber PRO members can read the entire article HERE, but, first, a snippet from the article to give you an idea of what to expect:

Starting Stacks

Are you trying to determine the best stack to use in your DraftKings GPP contests this weekend? Make sure you have some exposure to the Saints/Lions game as it has the highest total of the week with 51 points. Matt Stafford and Drew Brees are both attractive options in this potential shoot-out. Here is a preview of the article which reviews the Lions matchup:

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints, Team Total 23.75 points
QB Matt Stafford $6,100-WR Calvin Johnson $6,900 Total Stack $13,000 (26% of salary)
QB Matt Stafford $6,100-WR Golden Tate $5,500 Total Stack $11,600 (23.2% of salary)
The Lions are 3 point road underdogs at the Saints. The game total is currently the highest of the weekend at 50.5 points. Matt Stafford will be a popular option due to his low DraftKings salary and his matchup. The Saints have allowed a league-leading 30.5/points per game with 36 passing touchdowns this season. Golden Tate will be a popular option to stack with Stafford after his 2 touchdown performance. I prefer Calvin Johnson in this matchup. Don't underestimate the red questionable tag next to Johnson's name on DraftKings. This will help keep his ownership level down. I envision Johnson having a couple of games this season to pad his overall receiving stats. On Thanksgiving, Johnson had 8 receptions for 93 yards with 3 touchdowns, good for 35.3 fantasy points. Johnson will flourish again this week in the bright lights of Monday Night Football.

Here is the entire article which reviews some chalk plays and some under the radar plays for this weekend:

Short-yardage Breakdown, Week 15

My goal in chasing fantasy success has always been evaluating touchdown potential. Touchdowns simply swing contests - especially GPPs - in a way that yardage can't, and they're actually more predictable than many think. Studying the trends and suggested probabilities in the short-yardage (inside the 10-yard line) game gives us a leg up in piling up points.

A quick primer on the numbers you're looking at: over the span of the last 1-4 representative games*, I leverage a running back's
  • team's rushes from inside the 10-yard line (Tm10Ru)
  • own rushes and touchdowns from inside the 10 (10Ru & 10TD)
  • projected rushing touchdowns from inside the 10, based upon the above numbers and defensive numbers for his opponent (10TDPrj)
* A representative game is one in which a player played the same role for all or most of a game that he's likely to play this week. We obviously don't care how many carries Tim Hightower was getting when he was third on the depth chart.

This data has been a pretty accurate measure of touchdown potential, and it gives us a good picture of
Since many RBs need a touchdown to reach cash or GPP value, it's a helpful tool in separating the more dependable scorers from the guys who'll need huge yardage totals to produce for you.

Here's a breakdown of Week 15's top probabilities at finding the end zone:

Gm Tm10Ru 10Ru 10TD 10TDPrj
Adrian Peterson 4 4 4 3 0.90
Tim Hightower 1 3 2 1 0.83
Jeremy Hill 4 15 8 3 0.79
Matt Forte 3 8 6 2 0.70
James White 4 8 4 2 0.53
D. Williams 4 15 11 3 0.51
Shaun Draughn 4 2 2 1 0.50
Ryan Mathews 3 12 4 2 0.50
Isaiah Crowell 4 7 7 2 0.47
Latavius Murray 4 10 6 2 0.46
Alfred Blue 4 4 4 1 0.43
Eddie Lacy 3 5 2 1 0.42

  • Adrian Peterson has dominated this category for much of the year, thanks to 22 rushes from inside the 10 as the dominant cog in a successful offense. But he's struggled to spin that opportunity into gold - among backs with 15+ attempts, he's turned in the third-lowest touchdown rate (22.7%). It's trending up, though, at 75% over the last four weeks. As a favorite against a porous Bears defense, it would be an upset if Peterson didn't find the end zone; I'd set the over/under at 1.5.
  • The amount of rushing opportunity near the goal line in Cincinnati is just nutty, hence Jeremy Hill's sparkling TD outlook. Assuming A.J. McCarron can keep the offense afloat against a pitiful defense, Hill should find himself taking several handoffs from in close.
  • There's really no backfield behind Williams, so he's as every-down as they come, and his dominance carries over into the red zone. The Bengals are tied with the Steelers in short-yardage rushes over their last four games, but DeAngelo Williams stands alone with 11 of his own. The Broncos corral rushing yardage exceptionally well, but aren't immune to touchdowns (13 allowed on the year) and receiving production from the backfield. That matchup could turn high-scoring and high-volume, so Williams is an important piece to consider.
  • Don't overvalue James White's rushing role, even without LeGarrette Blount on board. But Brandon Bolden profiles much better as a short-yardage back, and the Patriots prefer to throw near the goal line anyway. White could be a league-winner, but it won't come from short TDs.
  • If we look at the opposite end of the spectrum, we see a troublesome hole in the outlook of value poster boy David Johnson - he projects to just 0.02 short TDs. Over his two starts, Johnson is yet to take a rush from inside the 10 - he was pulled for Stepfan Taylor for the Cardinals' only attempt. It's less of a concern, however, when we note that he saw three second-half runs from there against the 49ers three weeks ago. He's bound to get back toward the mean soon, and as a favorite in a high-volume matchup, this looks like a solid time to expect it.

Friday, December 18, 2015

DraftKings Sunday Games Roundtable - Week 15

This week's discussion focused on punt plays, candidates to receive the DraftKings performance bonuses for yardage, chalk plays, and tough issues facing elite wide receivers. It was a great session with the DraftKings staff and should give our readers plenty of insight heading into their contests their week.

Check out  full article here.

Week 15 Punt Plays

Week 15 Punt Plays

Every week John Lee, Cecil Lammey and I (Jeff Pasquino) discuss our punt plays for DraftKings on The Audible to close out our weekly DFS DraftKings podcast.  These are players that we are looking at to fill in a last spot on our lineups that are relatively cheap.  We have all been there - we have only a few bucks left and 1-2 spots to go in our roster, and we need a good value play to fill in that gap.  The rules we play by are that the player must not cost more than $3,500.

Just like always, I can only use one on the show - and I am not going to steal the thunder from our three picks that make the airwaves - but I will share a few guys that did not make it for the final cut.  Last week I was solid again with Bilal Powell, but Cecil Lammey also connected big with Rueben Randle.  Did we do it again? Tune in for my pick this week.  So give the following list of additional punt plays for this week a read and tell me what you think, either in the comments or on twitter (@JeffPasquino).   Here goes:

Bilal Powell, RB, Jets ($3,600) -  Yes, I am cheating a little, but the pricing is tighter this week.   I still like Powell as a solid PPR play.

Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers ($3,500) - Someone has to catch the passes from Phillip Rivers this week.  Why not Floyd?

Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers ($3,400) - Big Ben is red hot, and while Denver is a tough matchup, I have a good feeling that Pittsburgh is going to put up a solid fight.  A long touchdown and Wheaton hits cash and GPP value in one big play.

Nate Washington, WR, Texans ($3,400) - Houston has to throw the ball, and DeAndre Hopkins cannot catch every pass.  Washington gets a lot of targets in this offense, and if he scores, well, that's a 3x or 4x event right there.

Seth Roberts, WR, Raiders ($3,300) - Oakland might fall behind quickly to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, which leads right to the Raiders having to throw.  Roberts is their solid WR3 option and he has been productive of late.

Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($3,-00) - See Malcom Floyd's comments above.

Thanks for reading as always, and be sure to check out The DraftKings' Audible episode every week, and subscribe to The Audible on iTunes.  Good luck this week!

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Thursday Morning Overlay Watch, Week 15

The $50K Play Action asks for just a $3 entry fee that will more than triple with a score in the top 5%. It's a multi-entry stab (or series of stabs) at solid money with little risk involved, and with less than 14 hours to go, it's less than 50% full.

One of my favorite GPPs, the $70K Slant, is less than half full. A finish within the top 7.5% will more than triple your $9 investment.

The Thursday Millionaire Maker SUPERSatellites aren't filling very quickly. The $1 contest is a little over 50% full, and the $3 game is less than 35% full. I prefer the latter, which will grant Millionaire Maker tickets to the top 13% of its entrants. Get in on these.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

DraftKings Lineup Construction Week 14: Results

Last week on Saturday, I walked through a Cash Lineup Construction for DraftKings.com. I entered this lineup into an actual $1 Double-Up Cash game and was happy to see that it performed pretty well. Here are the results of that lineup

Last Minute Pivot

Here is the original lineup that I entered on Saturday:

But on Sunday morning. the Saints announced that Tim Hightower would receive the bulk of the carries and that C.J. Spiller would retain his 'change of pace' status. I wrote up a quick blog suggesting that people pivot from Spiller to Hightower since they were both just $3000.  That turned out to be a smart choice because Hightower had a significantly better statline:

Spiller - 3 Carries for 2 Yards, 3 Receptions for 7 Yards. 0 TDS.  3.9 Pts on DraftKings
Hightower - 28 Carries for 85 Yards, 1 Reception for 10 Yards. 1 TD. 16.5 Pts on DraftKings

With Hightower in the lineup for me, here is how it performed: 

This lineup finished with 164.38 points. Target Points for Cash games is 150 points (3X value of the 50,000 salary). The cash line for this particular Double-Up was 143.3 pts.

This lineup clearly had some over achieving players, but here's a little more detail into why it was successful.

Players that reached 3X value:

Wilson - 6300. Target 18.9 pts. Total 32.28 pts
Hightower - 3000. Target 9 pts. Total 16.5 pts
Beckham Jr - 9100. Target 27.3 pts. Total 38.6 pts
Marshall - 7600. Target 22.8 pts. Total 27.5 pts
49ers - 2100. Target 6.3 pts Total 8 pts.

Clearly Wilson was the big boost here. His 5 Passing TD performance this week pushed him up to 5x value. Wilson would have made a great GPP play as well this week. The pivot to Hightower was a big boost. If I'd have left Spiller in the lineup, I still would have beaten the 143.3 pay line, but watching the Sunday morning news and switching to Hightower really gave me a boost. The 49er defense wasn't anything special, but their super low price of 2100 made them still a good cash play against the Browns this week. Marshall and Beckham Jr. both had over 100 receiving yards this week and both reached the end zone.

Players that did not reach 3x value

Brown - 8900. Target 26.7 pts. Total 15.7 pts
Maclin - 5500. Target 16.5 pts. Total 12.6 pts
Draughn - 4800. Target 14.4 pts. Total 7.1 pts
ASJ - 2700. Target 8.1 pts. Total 6.1 pts

Brown was the biggest let down of this lineup, but part of that was due to the big lead that Pittsburgh built in the game against he Bengals and after Andy Dalton went down, he Steelers never looked back. Ben Roethlisberger didn't have a passing TD in the game and the Steelers still put 33 points on the board. The Kansas City - San Diego game turned into a snooze fest, and although Maclin had nine targets for the day, he only turned in six receptions for 68 yards. Draughn wasn't a sexy pick by any stretch, but he should have been able to reach his target 3x based on volume. The 49ers struggled the entire game against Cleveland this weekend, and Draughn was barely able to grind out a couple points. ASJ nearly reached value, turning his second 3 reception for 31 yard day. The game script indicated that he should have performed much better against a weak New Orleans defense, but the Saints jumped out early and held Tampa in check all day. Mike Evans finished with a nearly identical stat line (3 receptions, 39 yards) so I don't feel bad about this at all. Again, at 2700, ASJ didn't need much to come through.

Overall a solid Cash lineup. I don't regret any of the picks that I made. Games don't always follow the game script, but hopefully it works out where the players super cheap like ASJ or the 49er defense, or that the player still has a high enough floor to not be a total but like Antonio Brown.

Check back this Saturday for this week's DraftKings cash lineup.