DraftKings Sunday Games Roundtable - Week 15

This week's discussion focused on punt plays, candidates to receive the DraftKings performance bonuses for yardage, chalk plays, and tough issues facing elite wide receivers. It was a great session with the DraftKings staff and should give our readers plenty of insight heading into their contests their week.

Check out  full article here.

DraftKings Week 14 Roundtable

This week's discussion focused on replacement running backs, budget quarterbacks, defense/special teams plays, and off-script games. It was a great session with the DraftKings staff and should give our readers plenty of insight heading into their Week 11 contests.

Some excerpts are below, and the full article is here.

Squeaky Wheel
We discussed the idea of playing Julio Jones this week despite his poor matchup due to his voicing his displeasure with the team's red zone game-planning.

Jeff Haseley: He might be a candidate to receive more red zone looks, but this isn't the best week to expect big things from Jones. In his last four games against Carolina, Jones has struggled to produce big numbers. Josh Norman's presence, especially recently, is a big reason for that. Norman hasn't shadowed many receivers this season, but he has focused his efforts on containing Jones in the past. There has been considerable hype from Panthers camp about Norman covering Jones. I'd venture a guess that Norman plays a lot of man coverage on Jones this week.

Jones vs. Carolina (Last Four Meetings)

2014
Week 17 - 4 recs, 58 yards
Week 11 - 6 recs, 59 yards

2013
No games vs. CAR (injury)

2012
Week 14 - 5 recs, 66 yards, 1 TD
Week 4 - 1 rec, 30 yards

Stacking in Cash Games
Here, we discussed a "game theory" question of whether stacking players on the same team was a beneficial strategy in the low-volatility world of cash game roster-building. Come for the discussion, stay for the coining of the term "Power Stack!"

Justin Howe: A cash stack is only viable if you're talking about a reliably high-usage and high-impact receiver. By that, I mean one who dominates targets and elevates his quarterback's game. Otherwise, you'll be moving away from the highly owned and high-floor options and banking on suboptimal outcomes -- the unexpected coming to life. And that's strictly a GPP principle, spending your QB and a WR slot on an under-the-radar combo with an outside chance of producing. In cash games, we need to be following the chalk (for the most part) and, more importantly, seeking floors, not ceilings.

[Stacking players like Kirk Cousins and Pierre Garcon is] a far cry from what Ryan calls a "Power Stack." Say you're stacking [Ben] Roethlisberger and [Antonio] Brown. Chasing their floors, we can reasonably expect something around 280 yards and 1.5 touchdowns from Roethlisberger (17.2 points) and six receptions, 80 yards line from Brown (14 points). Allow for even a slight increase from those low-ball numbers (in either yardage or touchdowns), and you're cashing easily on them.

GPP Pivots
In this question, I discussed another game theory/strategy topic but asked the gang to apply this week's players and prices to the situation. Generally, a good GPP strategy is to find the "chalk" player(s) and pivot to other more high-upside plays in their same price range. Will had some nice insight on the tight end position.

Will Grant: Scott Chandler was a big play at TE last week because Rob Gronkowski was out. Chandler had a decent week with 16 points including a touchdown, so his salary took a big jump from $2,500 to $3,800. That should get people to back off a bit, but he'll probably still see a high ownership percentage this week. Consider pivoting to Tampa Bay's Austin Seferian-Jenkins instead. He is back in the lineup now, and he had three catches for 31 yards last week. That kept his salary low at $2,700, but this week he's going against the Saints, who have given up playing defense this season. Opposing tight ends have been mauling them the last four weeks Greg Olsen scored 23.9 points last week; Ryan Griffin had 17.2 the week before; Jordan Reed had 17.9 before that; and Delanie Walker had 30.50 (along with teammate Anthony Fasano putting up 12.3) the week before that. At $2,700, Seferian-Jenkins has some big upside. He'll give you an extra $1,100 in salary over Chandler as well.

Dirt Cheap Quarterbacks
This question focused on Blaine Gabbert and Johnny Manziel in the San Francisco-Cleveland game. I asked the guys to discuss whether or not they would use either of those low-priced options to build up the rest of their lineups. And if not, I asked them to provide other low-priced alternatives.

John Mamula: I will have limited exposure to Manziel and Gabbert this weekend. The game total of 41 points is scaring me off of these offenses. I agree with Jeff that Taylor is in a good spot this weekend. But the low-priced quarterback that I am targeting is Jameis Winston ($5,500) vs. the Saints. The Bucs-Saints game has the highest projected game total of the week at 50.5 points. Winston is a couple of weeks removed from his five-touchdown performance vs. the Eagles. The Saints allowed five more passing touchdowns last week, which brings their season total up to a staggering 35 passing touchdowns allowed. To put that in perspective, the Eagles have allowed the second most passing touchdowns (28), and then it levels off with a few teams at 25 and 24 passing touchdowns allowed. Vegas is projecting this game to turn into a shootout, which provides Winston with a floor of two passing touchdowns. Barring injury, Winston will achieve 4x value this week on DraftKings.

For GPPs, I will still have about 60-70% exposure to West because I suspect he will be 40-50% owned; I always want to roster players I like at a rate higher than the masses while getting less exposure to players I dislike (when compared to global ownership percentages). If I am entering just one GPP lineup, I think you have to roster West and try to beat the field elsewhere because of his upside and likely ownership.

Enjoy the full article. It was a great week of discussion!  

Footballguys RoundTable on DraftKings Sunday Games Week 13

The staff at Footballguys.com got together this week to talk about the Sunday NFL games on DraftKings.com. Here are some of the topics that they discussed and a couple snips of the conversation.

We've reached the part of the season where Divisional rematches are occurring? Do you have concerns using players against familiar divisional foes (especially those that they've already seen earlier this season)?

In your opinion, are certain positions more impacted (positively or negatively) in rematches than others?

John Lee: I will be honest here and say that I have never done an exhaustive analysis of fantasy scoring with divisional rematches; however, my good friend and FantasyLabs co-founder, Jonathan Bales, has done this type of study, and the data are compelling. A couple caveats before we dive in: 1) These data are not my own and belong to FantasyLabs, 2) These data are only for quarterback scoring; I do not know if the following trends are consistent across all skill positions, 3) These data are correlative, rather than causative, meaning that other interpretations are possible.

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At just $3,400, is there any reason to fade Arizona's David Johnson if Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are out for this week at St. Louis?

Phil Alexander: The only merit to fading Johnson as Arizona's starter would be the leverage you gain on about 50% of the field in GPPs if he somehow has a bad (or even average) game. While fading the chalk in large field tournaments is typically my standard operating procedure, Johnson is just too great a value to pass up at only $3,400.

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Tell us which game on the slate you feel most confident will go OVER the projected Vegas point total. Which player(s) in that game will contribute the most to their owners' lineups?

John Mamula: The game that I feel the most confident going over the projected Vegas total is Carolina-New Orleans, which has the highest game total of the week at 50 points. The Saints have surrendered a league leading 30 points per game at home this season. The Panthers offense should have no problem moving the ball on Sunday. The last time these teams met was during Week 3 when the Panthers won 27-22. (49 total points)

The Saints offense has been better at home both this season and in past years under Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Here are Brees split stats this season:

• Home (5 games): 74.4% completion percentage, 343.6 passing yards per game, 14 touchdowns, four interceptions
• Away (6 games): 65.0% completion percentage, 272.0 passing yards per game, 6 touchdowns, seven interceptions

Brees seems to be more comfortable playing at home in the Superdome. The Saints will have extra motivation this week as they will be trying to hand their division rival their first loss of the season. This game has the potential to turn into a shoot-out similar to the last two Saints home games (Week 8 Saints 52-49 Giants and Week 9 Titans 34-28 Saints), which comfortably both went over the Vegas total.

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HOUSTON AND HOPKINS

DeAndre Hopkins let many owners down last week. Part of what is hurting Hopkins is that Houston has only been trailing for 22.2% of their snaps and is running 10.8 fewer plays per game since they were crushed in Miami (hat tip Rich Hribar). Hopkins averaging 2.5 fewer catches and 34.7 fewer yards per game.

Considering the difference in game flow recently, is Hopkins ($8,800) still a strong cash game receiver this week at Buffalo?

Jeff Haseley: We have seen a small downward trend in Hopkins production lately that really showed against an exploitable Saints defense. I wouldn't write off Hopkins at all, because I don't see his lull as a performance-based ordeal. He'll bounce back soon enough, but I don't like his matchup this week at Buffalo. He's been labeled as a match-up proof receiver, but I'd rather spend big on other positions this week. I don't trust Brown against Vontae Davis, but I'd take Brown over Hopkins in a cash game. Like Phil said, Hopkins would be an excellent low owned target for tournament play. One receiver I will be targeting this week is Brandon Marshall against the struggling Giants secondary. He's coming off a two-touchdown game and looks to have put his ankle woes behind him.

There's plenty of great commentary and additional DraftKings insight on Sunday's games. Check out the rest of the discussion at Footballguys.com.

Follow @FBGWILL

Week 9 DraftKings Fantasy Roundtable

This week's discussion focused on replacement running backs, budget quarterbacks, defense/special teams plays, and off-script games. It was a great session with the DraftKings staff and should give our readers plenty of insight heading into their Week 9 contests.

Some excerpts are below, and the full article is here.

Williams a Lock?
This topic discussed DeAngelo Williams and if he represents a good value play at his $5,500 price tag.

Chris Feery: I agree with everyone so far. Williams is far from a lock this week and will probably be very highly-owned. Also, as the others have mentioned, the better approach to attacking the Raiders would be through the air, making Roethlisberger and company an appealing target. Will just mentioned a great alternative in Jeremy Langford at $4,000, and there are few others we can look at in the same price range as Williams. A little to the north on the salary scale, we have Doug Martin at $5,700. Martin was underwhelming last week, but prior to that he had scored 23+ points for three consecutive weeks. As a cheaper alternative, consider Danny Woodhead at $4,800. Woodhead is another player coming off of a down game, but could see a nice bump in opportunities as the Chargers sort through their injury issues. 

Budget QBs
This discussion centered around Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota as they are the next opponents for the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints, respectively. But the guys took this one in other directions and recommended other low-priced quarterbacks with better prospects this week.

John Lee: ...and this is why we play DFS! I agree with Dan that Carr is intriguing in the same price range as Winston and Mariota, but I am not fond of John's Fitzpatrick selection. Both will face suspect secondaries, but I suspect the Jets will try to protect Fitzpatrick and any chance they have at a wild-card bid this year; if he aggravates the thumb injury while sitting in the pocket looking for a receiver against the Jaguars, nobody is going to forgive first year head coach for allowing it to happen. Instead, I expect a run-first approach from the Jets, although I do agree it is a tough matchup against a very stout rush defense.

Defense Plays
This topic discussed team defenses for this week, particularly as compared to Atlanta, who gets to face a very weak San Francisco team starting Blaine Gabbert this week.

Dan Hindery: The choice of defense for Week 9 is going to be a tough one, and I do not know if a real consensus play will end up emerging by Sunday morning or if there will be a cluster of defenses all ranked similarly. My shortlist top-five for Week 9 includes:

New Orleans ($2,200) - Sure they just got torched for 49 points. But the Tennessee offense is a mess, and they are projected to score fewer than 20 points this week by Vegas. Perhaps it is a better GPP play than a cash game option, but the extra $1,000 or so in savings compared to the top defenses could really provide a boost to a cash game lineup as well. There is also an interesting precedent here; Houston got torched for 42 first half points in Week 7 and came back against Tennessee in Week 8 and held them to six points, notched seven sacks, and collected three turnovers.

New England ($3,300) - New England is favored by 14 points, which means Washington will almost certainly be playing from behind and forced to go pass-heavy. Kirk Cousins has been turnover-prone throughout his career. New England has been one of the better D/ST options all season with 26 sacks in seven games. But they have yet to score a touchdown, which is the only thing that has kept them from having a big week. At some point, they are due to find the end zone.

Off-Script Games
Here, we discussed how we use Vegas to help us project games but that they're sometimes wrong. We're trying to identify the Week 9 games that won't go according to script.

John Mamula: I was surprised to see the Vegas projection of 49 total points in the Chicago Bears-San Diego Chargers game. I see this game coming in about six or seven points fewer than what Vegas is projecting. I do not see either offense producing as they have done in the past without their key playmakers.

Philip Rivers is leading the league in passing with 2,695 passing yards and 336 passing yards per game this season. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every home game this season. However, Rivers has lost his number one passing target, Keenan Allen. Through eight games, Allen had 67 receptions for 725 yards. This loss will have an effect on the entire offense and limits Rivers' upside. On the other side of the field, the Chicago Bears will be without the centerpiece of their offense, Matt Forte. Alshon Jeffery should be held in check by up-and-coming cornerback, Jason Verrett.

Enjoy the full article. It was a great week of discussion!  

Footballguys Roundtable on DraftKings Sunday Lineups

Looking for help in constructing your Sunday DraftKings lineups? The staff of Footballguys.com sat down this week to discuss different topics about who to start on Sunday and why.

Here's a sample of some of the questions that were discussed in our DraftKings Roundtable.

100-YARD RECEIVERS

As you know, DraftKings offers a three-point bonus for 100-yard rushing and receiving performances. Rank the following WRs in order of their likelihood to reach 100 receiving yards:

• Julio Jones ($9,200) vs Tampa Bay
• DeAndre Hopkins ($8,700) vs Tennessee
• Odell Beckham Jr ($8,500) at New Orleans
• Antonio Brown ($7,800) vs Cincinnati
• Larry Fitzgerald ($7,700) at Cleveland

Phil Alexander: Here is how I would rank those five:

1. Antonio Brown: Brown is tied with Hopkins for most 100 yard games this season. The Bengals defense can be exploited – especially by WR1s. However, if Ben Roethlisberger sits again, I'd drop Brown all the way to fifth on this list.
2. DeAndre Hopkins: He is averaging 14% more targets per game than the next closest wide receiver. Titans cornerbacks are banged up and not very good to begin with.
3. Julio Jones: Jones looks healthy again. Coming into last week, Football Outsiders ranked Tampa Bay dead last at defending opposing WR1s.
4. Odell Beckham Jr: T.Y. Hilton showed last week how easy it can be to get behind the Saints defensive backs. His lingering hamstring injury is the only concern.
5. Larry Fitzgerald: Fitzgerald should once again approach double digit targets, but Carson Palmer has been spreading around the production recently.

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OK then, guys, which receiver(s) not listed do you think has the best chance to reach 100 yards?

VanderWoude: Mike Evans looks completely healthy and is starting to click with rookie Jameis Winston. The Falcons have had trouble containing number one receivers (Jordan Mathews 10/102, Odell Beckham Jr 7/146, DeAndre Hopkins 9/157), and Evans presents a severe mismatch with his wide catch radius and ability to out leap defenders on jump balls. He's reached 100 yards in two of his first four games. 

...

Pasquino: Other wideouts I see with good chances of 100 or more yards are Steve Smith, Keenan Allen, A.J. Green, and Nate Washington.

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Which tight end do you give the best chance to reach the century mark?

Alexander: At tight end, I like Greg Olsen to go over 100 yards for the third time this season. The Colts have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, and they've let up more receptions of 20+ yards than any team in the NFL.

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STEELERS OFFENSE

It's looking like Ben Roethlisberger will return this week. How will the Pittsburgh offense respond? On one hand, their star quarterback returns. On the other hand, they have a divisional game against a difficult opponent in Cincinnati.

...

Dan Hindery: In regards to their middling statistics, the Bengals have been jumping out to big first-half leads pretty consistently. Thus, the overall defensive numbers are a bit misleading. The Bengals have given up quite a bit of “garbage time” yardage that does not reflect how strong the defense has been when it mattered. For example, the Bengals have only given up two first-half touchdowns the entire season.

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MCFADDEN’S RESURGENCE

Darren McFadden looked like a fully healthy, younger version of himself on Sunday. Coach Jason Garrett has said that McFadden has earned more playing time.

With Joseph Randle potentially still nursing his injury and Christine Michael still not getting a real chance, would you take a chance on McFadden at his low price ($3,800) despite a tough matchup vs. Seattle?

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Jeff Pasquino: Last week, I correctly predicted that the Cowboys would try and run the ball on the Giants (pats myself on the back) to protect Matt Cassel and also rely on their strength in their offensive line. Seattle is in the top 10 in yards per game against for their rushing defense, far better than the 21st-ranked Giants defense. Seattle is going to stack the box and force Cassel to beat them, and I doubt that he will. As Phil and Scott have accurately pointed out, McFadden is an okay cash game option, but his ceiling is too low against the Seahawks for tournament consideration.

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GARBAGE TIME PRODUCTION

Week 7 was littered with garbage time production. Houston, Indianapolis, and San Diego were all teams who were losing and put up big stats against soft defenses. While most fantasy analysts will say that we shouldn't rely on garbage time, sometimes it can be predicted by looking at possible game scripts.

Which Week 8 game (or games) do you see as potential blowouts where the losing team can still produce valuable fantasy numbers?

Dan Hindery: Predicting the blowouts can be pretty tough. Indianapolis and San Diego were both healthy home favorites but surprisingly fell behind by 20+ points early in their games. Houston vs. Miami was not supposed to be a lopsided game either.

However, I do think we’ve seen in recent years where certain teams (and specific players) have regularly fallen behind and then been able to put up big numbers in comeback attempts. A few years back, Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford put up career seasons and some monster games when their porous defense put them in big holes early. Last year, Kelvin Benjamin was a regular beneficiary of garbage time touchdown catches.

To view the full article and all of the great footballguys staff discussion on these topics, check out this week's Footballguys Sunday Roundtable for DraftKings.

Follow @FBGWILL

Week 6 Fantasy Roundtable

This week, we had some great discussion, including a long breakdown of the biggest #NarrativeStreet story of the week (and perhaps the season) in New England traveling to Indianapolis. We even had a somewhat contrarian opinion on using too many Patriots players this week (see below).

Here are topics and some notable excerpts. But if you want to skip straight to the full article, please do!

New England Breakdown

Dan Hindery: It’s interesting to see some of the astronomical predictions for the Patriots offense. Of course the Patriots would love to go out and put up silly numbers against Indianapolis (and it’s possible they do it). But every team would love to go out and score 50 points on any given Sunday, and it rarely happens. I’d be very wary of going overboard with narrative versus sticking to the fundamentals of an analytical approach.

The most likely outcome is probably much more like what we just saw against Dallas. The Vegas Team Total has been hovering right around 31 (give or take a point). That’s one more than New England just scored against Dallas (which led to solid but unspectacular fantasy production). Stephen Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 made field goals per game (7.5 points from field goals), so that takes the offensive scoring total down from 31 to ~23.5. The Patriots defense/special teams has a decent shot at a score and that probably accounts for ~2.5 points, which takes the offensive scoring projection down to almost exactly three touchdowns (21 points).

Shootout Stacks

Jeff Pasquino: Another game with a lot of possible offense is in Green Bay, where the Packers host the Chargers. The over/under is over 50 right now, and I can easily see that coming to fruition with Aaron Rodgers lighting up a San Diego team on short rest after a bad home loss to the Steelers. Giving up 24 points at home to a Michael Vick-led squad is rough, so just imagine what Rodgers can do.

Monday Night Hangovers?

Scott Bischoff: The Steelers take on the Arizona Cardinals at home this week, a very formidable foe, and they will likely be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger again. The Cardinals deploy a confusing type of defense, and I can't see backup quarterback Michael Vick doing much through the air in this game. The Steelers offense will be carried by running back LeVeon Bell. More importantly, the Cardinals offense is rolling right now, and overall it is not the best timing for the Steelers to take on the Cardinals.

Replacing Charles

Jeff Haseley: Put me in the camp that believes Knile Davis will eventually win this role. It wasn't long ago that Davis was considered an RB1 fantasy play when Charles was out, and that was with Reid as head coach. Could West be the guy to earn substantial playing time? Sure, but at least we know what Davis is capable of and that Reid has relied on him before with a successful result. I don't love either of these backs, but if I had to guess who would perform the best when called upon, it would be Davis. I am not targeting either back this week for cash games. In GPPs, I may take a chance on West, because it looks like he has the lead on the role at this time. This week the percentages are in his favor, but an injury or ineffectiveness will change that momentum over to Davis quickly.

Enjoy the article. It's a long read, but it's well worth the time. These are some of the greatest minds fantasy football (and especially Daily Fantasy Football) has to offer. I make a lot of my own DraftKings lineup decisions based on how this group of individuals answers my questions. Enjoy!
Follow @RyanHester13

Footballguys Roundtable on DraftKings Sunday Lineps

Looking for help in constructing your Sunday DraftKings lineups? The staff of Footballguys.com sat down this week to discuss different topics about who to start on Sunday and why.

Here's a sample of some of the questions that were discussed in our DraftKings Roundtable.

LeVeon Bell appears to have picked up right where he left off last season, registering 26.2 and 31.0 fantasy points in his two games this season. This week, he’ll cost you a whopping $700 more than the second-highest running back.

Is Bell worth it? If you’re paying up for him, where are you sacrificing elsewhere?

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Last week, the game script question was an enlightening one in that it showed just how difficult it can be to predict NFL games. Let’s see if this week’s round of staffers can nail a few games.

So please pick a game on the slate this week and tell us how you think it will play out. Which player(s) will benefit from this script? Which become values?

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Are Tom Brady ($7,800) and Aaron Rodgers ($7,900) actually somewhat contrarian plays this week? With Peyton Manning ($7,000) vs Oakland’s horrific secondary, Eli Manning ($6,800) vs San Francisco’s poor group, and Philip Rivers ($6,200) vs. Pittsburgh’s poor pass defense, do you foresee “the masses” not wanting to pay up at quarterback?

Even matchups like New Orleans-Philadelphia with Drew Brees ($7,200) and Sam Bradford ($6,000) and Chicago-Kansas City with Jay Cutler ($5,300) and Alex Smith ($5,500) provide attractive-for-the-price options.

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Devonta Freeman’s salary has risen from $4,200 (Week 2) to $4,600 (Week 3) to $5,200 (Week 4) and is now sitting at $6,300 for this week.

Last week, Freeman torched a previously good rush defense at home. Is he still a solid cash game play for one more week despite another tough run matchup and the increased salary?

Check out our DraftKings Sunday Roundtable this week. As an added bonus, all Footballguys.com DraftKings content is free this week.