Close Call Report: Who's on the verge of producing more touchdowns in Week 6?

Touchdowns rule the roost in our GPP lineups, so it's important we track the scoring trends before they happen. With that in mind, I take frequent looks at the guys who are coming up just short of the end zone. Going down inside the 2-yard line is a pretty 50/50 proposition - a lot of those could just as easily wind up touchdowns, so for projection purposes, they matter going forward. And there's some standout data that can help us identify Week 6's underappreciated scoring threats.

• Dion Lewis is generally regarded as the passing down back in New England, but he's still seeing plenty of work near the goal line. He's scored twice from the red zone and been tackled inside the 2 four more times. It's just a point to file away when we roll the dice on a Patriots back. LeGarrette Blount's value is restricted to one type of game - a Patriots blowout - but Lewis's universal utilization gives him a strong outlook in any script.
• Frank Gore already has three touchdowns, but could easily have five; he's having a particularly hard time getting into the end zone. He's been brought down inside the 2 five times, including losing an opportunity on a goal line fumble. It's hard to project much ground success this week, but assuming the Colts can work their way inside the 5 or twice, Gore looks like a fairly safe bet to score.
• Chris Johnson hasn't had much goal line success, which makes sense: he's never been much of a short-yardage threat. But he's seeing plenty of runs from there (five from inside the 5) in a high-powered offense, giving him a solid touchdown outlook if the holes begin to clear.
• The absence of Justin Forsett on this list is a bit of a red flag: it suggests that his measly one touchdown isn't a fluke. He just isn't being used much in the red zone (only two carries, with just one near the goal line). He offers solid yardage and PPR value, but his GPP upside is limited by the lack of an awesome TD outlook.
• The Jordan Mathews dam could (somewhat) burst soon. His rookie season (16 red zone targets) hinted at strong usage in close, and it's important to note that while he's caught just one touchdown thus far, he's been brought down at the 1 twice. With the high-tempo Eagles offense churning out heavy snaps and pass attempts, Matthews will find the end zone more and more as the season progresses. A high-scoring home matchup with the secondary-deficient Giants looks like a fine time to break out.
• Two top options in struggling offenses - Jarvis Landry and Anquan Boldin - are also candidates to find the end zone this week. They've seen six and five targets from inside the 5 and look ready to convert a short TD or two soon.

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Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 6

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Anquan Boldin - $4,300 vs. BAL (6%-10% Projected Ownership)

Yes, there’s the revenge game factor. And yes, Boldin does seem like the type of competitor who would enjoy sticking it to his former team. But the real reasons to love Boldin this week are not narrative driven. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. More specifically, Baltimore is allowing 3.6 red zone scoring attempts per game, which ranks in the bottom third of the league. Surprisingly enough, the 49ers have run the second-most offensive plays that began in the red zone this season. Boldin’s 11 red zone targets not only represent a team-high 41% market share, they rank third in the entire NFL, behind only DeAndre Hopkins and Jarvis Landry. Colin Kaepernick got back on on track in a plus road match-up with the Giants last week and should be able to keep the ball rolling downhill at home, in an equally enticing spot. A second straight 25+ point performance for Boldin would not come as a shock.

Week 6 Fantasy Roundtable

This week, we had some great discussion, including a long breakdown of the biggest #NarrativeStreet story of the week (and perhaps the season) in New England traveling to Indianapolis. We even had a somewhat contrarian opinion on using too many Patriots players this week (see below).

Here are topics and some notable excerpts. But if you want to skip straight to the full article, please do!

New England Breakdown

Dan Hindery: It’s interesting to see some of the astronomical predictions for the Patriots offense. Of course the Patriots would love to go out and put up silly numbers against Indianapolis (and it’s possible they do it). But every team would love to go out and score 50 points on any given Sunday, and it rarely happens. I’d be very wary of going overboard with narrative versus sticking to the fundamentals of an analytical approach.

The most likely outcome is probably much more like what we just saw against Dallas. The Vegas Team Total has been hovering right around 31 (give or take a point). That’s one more than New England just scored against Dallas (which led to solid but unspectacular fantasy production). Stephen Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 made field goals per game (7.5 points from field goals), so that takes the offensive scoring total down from 31 to ~23.5. The Patriots defense/special teams has a decent shot at a score and that probably accounts for ~2.5 points, which takes the offensive scoring projection down to almost exactly three touchdowns (21 points).

Shootout Stacks

Jeff Pasquino: Another game with a lot of possible offense is in Green Bay, where the Packers host the Chargers. The over/under is over 50 right now, and I can easily see that coming to fruition with Aaron Rodgers lighting up a San Diego team on short rest after a bad home loss to the Steelers. Giving up 24 points at home to a Michael Vick-led squad is rough, so just imagine what Rodgers can do.

Monday Night Hangovers?

Scott Bischoff: The Steelers take on the Arizona Cardinals at home this week, a very formidable foe, and they will likely be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger again. The Cardinals deploy a confusing type of defense, and I can't see backup quarterback Michael Vick doing much through the air in this game. The Steelers offense will be carried by running back LeVeon Bell. More importantly, the Cardinals offense is rolling right now, and overall it is not the best timing for the Steelers to take on the Cardinals.

Replacing Charles

Jeff Haseley: Put me in the camp that believes Knile Davis will eventually win this role. It wasn't long ago that Davis was considered an RB1 fantasy play when Charles was out, and that was with Reid as head coach. Could West be the guy to earn substantial playing time? Sure, but at least we know what Davis is capable of and that Reid has relied on him before with a successful result. I don't love either of these backs, but if I had to guess who would perform the best when called upon, it would be Davis. I am not targeting either back this week for cash games. In GPPs, I may take a chance on West, because it looks like he has the lead on the role at this time. This week the percentages are in his favor, but an injury or ineffectiveness will change that momentum over to Davis quickly.

Enjoy the article. It's a long read, but it's well worth the time. These are some of the greatest minds fantasy football (and especially Daily Fantasy Football) has to offer. I make a lot of my own DraftKings lineup decisions based on how this group of individuals answers my questions. Enjoy!
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