Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 6

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Anquan Boldin - $4,300 vs. BAL (6%-10% Projected Ownership)

Yes, there’s the revenge game factor. And yes, Boldin does seem like the type of competitor who would enjoy sticking it to his former team. But the real reasons to love Boldin this week are not narrative driven. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. More specifically, Baltimore is allowing 3.6 red zone scoring attempts per game, which ranks in the bottom third of the league. Surprisingly enough, the 49ers have run the second-most offensive plays that began in the red zone this season. Boldin’s 11 red zone targets not only represent a team-high 41% market share, they rank third in the entire NFL, behind only DeAndre Hopkins and Jarvis Landry. Colin Kaepernick got back on on track in a plus road match-up with the Giants last week and should be able to keep the ball rolling downhill at home, in an equally enticing spot. A second straight 25+ point performance for Boldin would not come as a shock.