Saturday, October 3, 2015

Trust or Fade: Sunday Injury Expectations

Earlier in the week, I made a trust or fade recommendation for the injured players at risk at being limited on Sunday for those constructing lineups for the Thursday night DraftKings slate. After Friday's practice participation report, media interviews, and some Saturday updates, those recommendations sometimes change.

Here's the Sunday morning update on which game time decisions are safe to roster on the DraftKings Sunday slate and which situations you should fade.

I believe Julio Jones, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb, Devonta Freeman, T.Y. Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Doug Martin, John Brown, Ladarius Green, and Allen Hurns will see their usual workload today. Your decision to roster them at FanDuel should be based on value and expectation, with little concern for injury.

I'm more pessimistic on Chris Ivory, Demarco Murray, and Dwayne Allen, who may be active but aren't healthy enough to be heavily used. Eric Decker and Davante Adams haven't been ruled out yet, but are not expected to play. None of these players should be in your DFS lineup.

900 ET: Decker is active this morning but is still a clear fade.

That leaves a short list, but all four situations here are critical. I'll update these recommendations with any breaking news Sunday morning.

ANDREW LUCK | 9100 | Shoulder injury | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE FADE

You can read my extended thoughts on Luck above the subscriber fold in my Sunday Expectations feature at Footballguys.

In short, until we hear otherwise, I see more reasons to fade Luck this morning than roster him. However, if Luck is healthy enough to convince the medical staff and coaches to start him today, the matchup and upside will change both recommendations above to LEAN TRUST.

900 ET: Luck will not play today per multiple media sources.

ARIAN FOSTER | 8000 | Groin strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

Since the details of Foster's surgery were reported, I've written I expect Foster to return between Week 2 and Week 4, with Week 4 the most likely return to play date. I do think Foster meets that expectation today. However, I also wrote that I expected Foster to be immediately ready for a full workload upon his return. I don't think Foster meets that expectation today.

Foster isn't a lock to be active, but his Friday media comments strongly suggested he'll play. Unfortunately, Foster also hinted he'd rotate with Alfred Blue and try to stay as fresh as possible for the Texans' Thursday night game against Indianapolis in four days. There's a slim chance Foster feels good early and is too effective to keep off the field. But I think 7-12 touches is much more likely than 15-20+ today.

MARSHAWN LYNCH | 8600 | Calf strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

I don't think Lynch will be active on Monday night. I don't think there's enough upside to put him in your flex spot in the hope he's a surprise active. And it's too much salary to leave on the table to pivot to Ameer Abdullah or Thomas Rawls and I don't think Calvin Johnson is a reasonable swap either. Avoid Lynch today.

DREW BREES | 8400 | Shoulder contusion | Probable
Cash: LEAN FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

Brees managed three consecutive limited practices and throwing sessions without a setback this week and is expected to play. However, the risk of in-game fatigue or setback or general ineffectiveness due to the injury and time off is just high enough to recommend avoiding Brees in all contests this week.

Hope variance shines on you today in your DraftKings contests. Footballguys Insiders can read my full breakdown of today's injury expectations.

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