Saturday, October 17, 2015

Close Call Report: Who's on the verge of producing more touchdowns in Week 6?

Touchdowns rule the roost in our GPP lineups, so it's important we track the scoring trends before they happen. With that in mind, I take frequent looks at the guys who are coming up just short of the end zone. Going down inside the 2-yard line is a pretty 50/50 proposition - a lot of those could just as easily wind up touchdowns, so for projection purposes, they matter going forward. And there's some standout data that can help us identify Week 6's underappreciated scoring threats.

  • Dion Lewis is generally regarded as the passing down back in New England, but he's still seeing plenty of work near the goal line. He's scored twice from the red zone and been tackled inside the 2 four more times. It's just a point to file away when we roll the dice on a Patriots back. LeGarrette Blount's value is restricted to one type of game - a Patriots blowout - but Lewis's universal utilization gives him a strong outlook in any script.
  • Frank Gore already has three touchdowns, but could easily have five; he's having a particularly hard time getting into the end zone. He's been brought down inside the 2 five times, including losing an opportunity on a goal line fumble. It's hard to project much ground success this week, but assuming the Colts can work their way inside the 5 or twice, Gore looks like a fairly safe bet to score.
  • Chris Johnson hasn't had much goal line success, which makes sense: he's never been much of a short-yardage threat. But he's seeing plenty of runs from there (five from inside the 5) in a high-powered offense, giving him a solid touchdown outlook if the holes begin to clear.
  • The absence of Justin Forsett on this list is a bit of a red flag: it suggests that his measly one touchdown isn't a fluke. He just isn't being used much in the red zone (only two carries, with just one near the goal line). He offers solid yardage and PPR value, but his GPP upside is limited by the lack of an awesome TD outlook.
  • The Jordan Mathews dam could (somewhat) burst soon. His rookie season (16 red zone targets) hinted at strong usage in close, and it's important to note that while he's caught just one touchdown thus far, he's been brought down at the 1 twice. With the high-tempo Eagles offense churning out heavy snaps and pass attempts, Matthews will find the end zone more and more as the season progresses. A high-scoring home matchup with the secondary-deficient Giants looks like a fine time to break out.
  • Two top options in struggling offenses - Jarvis Landry and Anquan Boldin - are also candidates to find the end zone this week. They've seen six and five targets from inside the 5 and look ready to convert a short TD or two soon.

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