Friday, October 2, 2015

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 4

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned."

And the player insight:

Carlos Hyde - $5,100 vs. GB (Less Than 5% Owned)
Hyde is an interesting high-risk/high-reward play this week. The reasons to remove him completely from your player pool are obvious. San Francisco's defense has been terrible in their last two games, we’ve seen Hyde adversely affected by the resulting negative game scripts, and the 49ers play host to a Green Bay Packers team averaging over 32 points per game. So why play Hyde in GPPs -- besides the fact he’s unlikely to appear on more than 3% of your opponent’s rosters? The Packers could come out flat for this game after traveling on a short week. San Francisco played with intensity on both sides of the ball in their only other home game this year. Their plan will be to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands, which can only be accomplished by sustaining drives with large doses of Hyde. It’s worth noting the Packers rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA metric, which accounts for down, distance, and situation. It will get ugly for Hyde quickly if Rodgers remains white-hot and the Niners defense lays down again, but his ceiling is a 5x return on his salary if San Francisco can stay competitive at home.

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