Friday, October 2, 2015

College Football Weather Watch

We're starting to see some tangible impact on the college football lines with Hurricane Joaquin. The good news is that it no longer looks as though Joaquin is going to make landfall on the United States East Coast. However, even if the Hurricane does indeed stay out to sea as current models suggest, the East Coast is still expected to see a major impact with wet and windy conditions. The areas that will catch the biggest brunt of the storm are Virginia and the Carolinas, but the impact will be felt beyond just that narrow stretch of the country.

The Louisville at North Carolina State game is an example of the impact weather can have on expected scoring. The opening line had a game total of 54 but that crept lower and lower all week before hitting 46 and now rebounding just slightly to 47. The negative impact of the weather on overall scoring in this game might not be a deciding factor in lineup decisions however as this game's top options are arguably dual threat QB Lamar Jackson ($5,700) of Louisville and NC State running back Matthew Dayes ($5,300) and the game script on a wet and windy day doesn't terribly hurt their outlooks.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech has also seen a major downward shift in game total, from an opening line of 52 down to 46. Virginia Tech's quarterback Brendan Motley ($5,700) stacked with his top WR, Isaiah Ford ($4,500) seemed like a nice inexpensive GPP stack with upside. However, the forecast with a 70% chance of rain and 15-25 MPH winds really puts a damper on excitement about passing success in this game.

It's not just the coastal locations that are being impacted and an example can be found in the weekend's highest profile game, Alabama at Georgia. The opening line had a game total of 55 which has now fallen to 51. Alabama WR Ardarius Stewart ($4,200) was an intriguing option with Alabama expected to pass more. However, with a 60% chance of rain and gusting winds expected to be 12-22MPH, the passing game projections have to be adjusted downward somewhat.

Weather is always a factor and should at the very least serve as a tie-breaker between close roster decisions. Be sure to keep a close eye on the latest forecasts (see here) tomorrow morning when setting and adjusting your lineups because a wet, windy day along much of the eastern half of the country could have a tangible outcome on the games.


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