Friday, October 23, 2015

CFB Team Totals for the Saturday Early Slate on DraftKings

Team  Spread Game Total Team Total Opponent Run  Pass
Baylor -37 80 58.5 Iowa State 5 5
Oklahoma -14.5 73.5 44 Texas Tech 5 4
Michigan St -16.5 63.5 40 Indiana 4 4
Arizona -7.5 72 39.75 Wash State 5 3
Houston -21.5 57 39.25 Central FL 4 4
N Carolina -17.5 61 39.25 Virginia 4 3
Toledo -14 62.5 38.25 U Mass 4 3
Bowling Green -14 59 36.5 Kent St 4 2
Alabama -15.5 54 34.75 Tennessee 4 3
Wash State 7.5 72 32.25 Arizona 2 5
Clemson -6.5 56 31.25 Miami (FL) 3 4
Nebraska -7.5 51.5 29.5 Northwestern 3 3
Texas Tech 14.5 73.5 29.5 Oklahoma 2 4
Texas -6.5 50.5 28.5 Kansas State 3 2
Arkansas -5.5 51 28.25 Auburn 4 2
Pitt -7 49 28 Syracuse 3 2
Penn State -6.5 47 26.75 Maryland 3 2
Wisconsin -6.5 46 26.25 Illinois 3 2
Miami (FL) 6.5 56 24.75 Clemson 3 2
U Mass 14 62.5 24.25 Toledo 1 4
Indiana 16.5 63.5 23.5 Michigan St 2 3
VA Tech -2.5 43.5 23 Duke 2 2
Auburn 5.5 51 22.75 Arkansas 3 1
Kent St 14 59 22.5 Bowling Green 2 2
Northwestern 7.5 51.5 22 Nebraska 2 1
Kansas State 6.5 50.5 22 Texas 2 1
Virginia 17.5 61 21.75 N Carolina 1 2
Iowa State 37 80 21.5 Baylor 2 2
Syracuse 7 49 21 Pitt 1 1
Duke 2.5 43.5 20.5 VA Tech 2 1
Maryland 6.5 47 20.25 Penn State 1 1
Illinois 6.5 46 19.75 Wisconsin 1 2
Tennessee 15.5 54 19.25 Alabama 2 1
Central FL 21.5 57 17.75 Houston 1 1


Baylor Run and Pass- Baylor is leading the nation with both 7.1 yards per rush and 12.2 yards per attempt. Iowa State's defense ranks in the bottom half nationally against both the run and the pass. With a team total of 58.5, Baylor should approach season averages of 336 rushing yards and 371 passing yards. The key to whether Baylor's offensive stars are a great play or merely a good play will be whether Iowa State's offense can do enough to force Baylor to play it's starters into the fourth quarter. 
Oklahoma State Pass- The Cowboys are averaging 308 passing yards per game and face a horrible Kansas defense allowing 311 passing yards per game. Oklahoma State could pass for 400+ yards if motivated to do so or if Kansas' offense is able to keep the game competitive into the second half. Neither of those things are guaranteed, so there is some risk in investing too heavily in the Cowboys passing offense. But also real upside as this is a major mismatch on paper and the team total points to a big day for the Oklahoma State offense.
Oklahoma Pass- The Sooners have been incredibly efficient throwing the ball (9.7 yards per attempt) and have averaged 330 passing yards per game. Tech is giving up 285 passing yards per game and a healthy 8.1 per attempt. Expect Oklahoma to pick up big chunks of yardage through the air and to exceed their season average with 350+ passing yards. Baker Mayfield and Sterling Sharpe are very nice options Saturday.
Washington State Pass- The Cougars are underdogs after a pair of impressive victories. Washington State is the most pass-heavy team in the nation (73% pass and 57 passing attempts per game) and is averaging 417 passing yards per game. Arizona is vulnerable against the pass (allowing 7 yards per attempt) and the game script points to the Cougars having to be aggressive through the air. Luke Falk, Dom Williams, and Gabe Marks should have big games. 
Arizona Run- The Wildcats rank 8th nationally with 5.8 yards per rush and are also 8th nationally with 266 rushing yards per game. Washington State is giving up a healthy 5.0 yards per rush and over 200 yards rushing per game. With a team total of ~40, expect Arizona to put up big numbers on the ground. 
Houston Run- The Cougars are 6th nationally with 282 rushing yards per game. With dual threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. and tough back Kenneth Farrow, Houston presents matchup problems for all opposing rush defenses. UCF is a slightly below average rush defense and does not have the talent to take away both Ward and Farrow, so at least one of the two should have a big game on the ground on Saturday.
Toledo Run- The Rockets are averaging 205 rushing yards per game and face a horrible UMass defense that has allowed 231 rushing yards per game. As two touchdown favorites, the game script should be favorable for Toledo to rack up 250+ rushing yards with the duo of Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson leading the way.


Bowling Green Pass- Bowling Green leads the nation with 432 passing yards per game. Kent State has a strong defense that should be able to hold the Falcons below their season averages, but BGSU's high-paced offense and deep, talented crew of pass catchers are always going to get theirs. Matt Johnson is always a top quarterback options as is Roger Lewis at wide receiver.
Oklahoma Run- Oklahoma's offense has been very balanced with a 53-47 run-to-pass ratio. However, the Sooners are averaging a surprisingly poor 3.8 yards per rush. Texas Tech hasn't stopped anyone and have given up 5.6 yards per rush and a ridiculous 255 rushing yards per game. If Oklahoma can build an early lead through the air as expected, they should have success with Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon on the ground if they try to slow it down a little and play keep away from the high-octane Red Raiders offense. With a huge 44 point team total, a few rushing touchdowns are likely as well.
Michigan State Run and Pass- Can the Spartans avoid a hangover after their stunning upset over Michigan? If they can, the offense should have a field day against a weak Indiana defense that just gave up 55 points to Rutgers last week. Michigan State would probably like to just pound the ball on the ground with LJ Scott; against an Indiana defense giving up 4.8 yards per rush, they should have some success doing just that. However, Indiana has shown that as underdogs they like to load the box and force teams to beat them through the air. The Spartans are averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and against an incredibly young Indiana secondary, Connor Cook and Aaron Burbridge should be able to do whatever they want. 
Alabama Run- Tennessee is just an average rushing defense. Alabama has been very successfull lately running the ball with Derrick Henry and rank in the top 30 nationally with 199 rushing yards per game. As more than two touchdown favorites, Alabama's offense could become especially run-heavy if they can build an early lead.
Arkansas Run- Auburn’s giving up a ridiculous 5.5 yards per carry and 205 rushing yards per game. Arkansas has ran the ball well this season with 4.8 yards per carry in a run-heavy offense (55% run ratio). Despite the lower team total, this is a sneaky good matchup and Alex Collins should have a big game.
North Carolina Run- The Tar Heels have been a force on the ground. UNC ranks 3rd nationally with 6.8 yards per rush. Virginia is giving up 4.8 yards per rushing attempt and are unlikely to slow dual-threat quarterback Marqise Williams and running backs Elijah Hood and  T.J. Logan. With so many likely focused upon the Greg Ward Jr., Seth Russell and some of the other big-name quarterbacks, Williams makes an especially intriguing GPP option.

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