Friday, October 2, 2015

Sunday Games Roundtable: Week 4

Need a little break from your work day? Check out the DraftKings Roundtable for Week 4. Staffers Scott Bischoff, Dan Hindery, Justin Howe, Jeff Pasquino, and BJ VanderWoude discuss five topics that will help you fill out the best lineups and make some cash this weekend!

Below are the topics discussed with some excerpts from the discussions:

Top-Notch Wide Receivers
Justin Howe: I've been on the "roster two of Jones, Brown, and Beckham every week" bandwagon all season, but now looks like a good time to scale that back. I won a solid haul in Week 2 by making it a point to play two of those guys in every lineup, but I backed off a bit last week – only one in most of my lineups – and still managed to succeed. Now, I don't advocate doing so for the sole purpose of squeezing some shaky top-eight(ish) running back into your lineup....

...But it's not quite as necessary right now. A few guys in the next two price tiers are developing strong weekly top-six outlooks. Brandon Marshall will absolutely dominate opportunity while Eric Decker and Chris Ivory are hobbled and/or sitting out; DeAndre Hopkins is the unquestioned leader and star of the league's most pass-happy offense, and he's been predictably great in the red zone. A.J. Green and Randall Cobb are high-salaried, but they're always capable of a top-tier stat line. Any of those guys carry strong weekly potential to reach 4x value but also have insanely high floors. They're all solid options to sub for one of the “Big Three” in a cash setting.
Game Scripts
Jeff Pasquino: I think the simplest game to break down will be Dallas and New Orleans. Dallas is going to run the ball – all game, non-stop. The Saints are averaging 126 yards against on the ground (26th in the league), and Dallas just ran the ball a ton last week against Atlanta and had four rushing touchdowns – and then forgot to finish the game on the ground. Dallas won't let that happen this week as they have to continue to minimize the passing game without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and possibly little to no Jason Witten. That's a recipe that calls for 40 rushing plays and several dump-off passes to Lance Dunbar (who had 10 receptions for 100 yards last week).
Oakland vs. Tight Ends
Dan Hindery: It depends upon whether or not Jay Cutler is back. If Jimmy Clausen is starting, I will not own any Bears, no matter how enticing the matchup looks on paper. Clausen completed only 9 passes last week for 63 yards and we’ve seen enough of him over the years to know he is not a good NFL quarterback.
Running Back Matchups
Scott Bischoff: Staying in Atlanta, Devonta Freeman is an intriguing option. I see the Texans as likely trying to stop wide receiver Julio Jones as a primary part of their game plan, and it should open up the underbelly of the defense to screen passes to Freeman. Vegas likes this as a high scoring game, and I see Freeman chipping away as a pass catcher.
Value Running Backs
BJ VanderWoude: All signs point to Mark Ingram being in for a big day, although I am concerned with his lack of touches in the run game. Coming into Week 3, he is averaging 13 rushes per game, with a yards per carry average of 3.3. While he has left a lot to be desired running the ball, Ingram has stepped it up as a receiver. In the four years preceding 2015, Ingram had caught more than three passes only once in his career. This year he has caught nine, three and five balls respectively, for a solid 9.5 yards per reception. The Saints need to give the ball to Ingram 20+ times to have a shot at beating the Cowboys, which is something I am banking on when I put him in play this week. He needs that rush-volume to hit his ceiling, but it is comforting to know that he is capable of reaching his floor through the passing game.
As you can see, this week's Roundtable had five questions, compared to the usual four. This week, the guys provided some great information and opinions. Their information was educational, even to me, a fellow Staffer. Give it a read and then set your lineups accordingly!

Also, be sure to check out all of our FanDuel content at Footballguys.com this week for the wildly affordable price of FREE. The guys over at the Cracking FanDuel blog have full details.

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