Friday, October 30, 2015

Footballguys Roundtable on DraftKings Sunday Lineups

Looking for help in constructing your Sunday DraftKings lineups? The staff of sat down this week to discuss different topics about who to start on Sunday and why.

Here's a sample of some of the questions that were discussed in our DraftKings Roundtable.


As you know, DraftKings offers a three-point bonus for 100-yard rushing and receiving performances. Rank the following WRs in order of their likelihood to reach 100 receiving yards:
Phil Alexander: Here is how I would rank those five:
  1. Antonio Brown: Brown is tied with Hopkins for most 100 yard games this season. The Bengals defense can be exploited – especially by WR1s. However, if Ben Roethlisberger sits again, I'd drop Brown all the way to fifth on this list.
  2. DeAndre Hopkins: He is averaging 14% more targets per game than the next closest wide receiver. Titans cornerbacks are banged up and not very good to begin with.
  3. Julio Jones: Jones looks healthy again. Coming into last week, Football Outsiders ranked Tampa Bay dead last at defending opposing WR1s.
  4. Odell Beckham JrT.Y. Hilton showed last week how easy it can be to get behind the Saints defensive backs. His lingering hamstring injury is the only concern.
  5. Larry Fitzgerald: Fitzgerald should once again approach double digit targets, but Carson Palmer has been spreading around the production recently.
OK then, guys, which receiver(s) not listed do you think has the best chance to reach 100 yards?
VanderWoude: Mike Evans looks completely healthy and is starting to click with rookie Jameis Winston. The Falcons have had trouble containing number one receivers (Jordan Mathews 10/102, Odell Beckham Jr 7/146, DeAndre Hopkins 9/157), and Evans presents a severe mismatch with his wide catch radius and ability to out leap defenders on jump balls. He's reached 100 yards in two of his first four games. 
Pasquino: Other wideouts I see with good chances of 100 or more yards are Steve SmithKeenan AllenA.J. Green, and Nate Washington.
Which tight end do you give the best chance to reach the century mark?
Alexander: At tight end, I like Greg Olsen to go over 100 yards for the third time this season. The Colts have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, and they've let up more receptions of 20+ yards than any team in the NFL.


It's looking like Ben Roethlisberger will return this week. How will the Pittsburgh offense respond? On one hand, their star quarterback returns. On the other hand, they have a divisional game against a difficult opponent in Cincinnati.
Dan Hindery: In regards to their middling statistics, the Bengals have been jumping out to big first-half leads pretty consistently. Thus, the overall defensive numbers are a bit misleading. The Bengals have given up quite a bit of “garbage time” yardage that does not reflect how strong the defense has been when it mattered. For example, the Bengals have only given up two first-half touchdowns the entire season.


Darren McFadden looked like a fully healthy, younger version of himself on Sunday. Coach Jason Garrett has said that McFadden has earned more playing time.
With Joseph Randle potentially still nursing his injury and Christine Michael still not getting a real chance, would you take a chance on McFadden at his low price ($3,800) despite a tough matchup vs. Seattle?
Jeff Pasquino: Last week, I correctly predicted that the Cowboys would try and run the ball on the Giants (pats myself on the back) to protect Matt Cassel and also rely on their strength in their offensive line. Seattle is in the top 10 in yards per game against for their rushing defense, far better than the 21st-ranked Giants defense. Seattle is going to stack the box and force Cassel to beat them, and I doubt that he will. As Phil and Scott have accurately pointed out, McFadden is an okay cash game option, but his ceiling is too low against the Seahawks for tournament consideration.


Week 7 was littered with garbage time production. Houston, Indianapolis, and San Diego were all teams who were losing and put up big stats against soft defenses. While most fantasy analysts will say that we shouldn't rely on garbage time, sometimes it can be predicted by looking at possible game scripts.
Which Week 8 game (or games) do you see as potential blowouts where the losing team can still produce valuable fantasy numbers?
Dan Hindery: Predicting the blowouts can be pretty tough. Indianapolis and San Diego were both healthy home favorites but surprisingly fell behind by 20+ points early in their games. Houston vs. Miami was not supposed to be a lopsided game either.
However, I do think we’ve seen in recent years where certain teams (and specific players) have regularly fallen behind and then been able to put up big numbers in comeback attempts. A few years back, Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford put up career seasons and some monster games when their porous defense put them in big holes early. Last year, Kelvin Benjamin was a regular beneficiary of garbage time touchdown catches.

To view the full article and all of the great footballguys staff discussion on these topics, check out this week's Footballguys Sunday Roundtable for DraftKings.

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