Sunday, October 18, 2015

Trust or Fade: Sunday Injury Expectations

Earlier in the week, I made a trust or fade recommendation for the injured players at risk at being limited on Sunday for those constructing lineups for the Thursday night DraftKings slate. After Friday's practice participation report, media interviews, and some Saturday updates, those recommendations sometimes change.

Here's the Sunday morning update on which game time decisions are safe to roster on the DraftKings Sunday slate and which situations you should fade.

There are a few players on the injury report I expect to see close to their full workload despite a small risk of an in-game aggravation. They include Randall Cobb, Blake Bortles, Carlos Hyde, Charles Clay, Allen Hurns, Cecil Shorts, Mike Wallace, and T.Y. Hilton. While Steve Smith, Alshon Jeffery, and LeSean McCoy will reportedly be active today, neither are healthy enough to trust today. And I don't expect to see Tyrod Taylor, T.J. Yeldon, Davante Adams, Matt Jones, Theo Riddick, or Stevie Johnson.

ODELL BECKHAM | 8900 | Hamstring | Questionable
Cash: FADE

The Giants have yet to rule Beckham out for tomorrow night's game. But he's not been close to practicing this week and has a long history of slow-to-heal hamstring strains. It's possible Beckham is closer to full strength than it appears, but all signs suggest he's doubtful to play effectively on Monday night.

ANDREW LUCK | 7600 | Shoulder | Questionable
Cash: FADE

The tone of this week's practice reports, coaching comments, and media reports on Luck have been universally positive. But it's clear the Colts will not allow Luck to play until his shoulder is at full strength and not at risk of fatigue and aggravating whatever has caused the soreness and decreased range of motion in his shoulder. I'm swayed by the full Friday practice, however, and would lean toward Luck playing tonight.

DION LEWIS | 5800 | Abdomen | Questionable

Media reports on Lewis are positive, with multiple trustworthy beat writers reporting that Lewis' injury is a non-issue. There are no guarantees on Lewis' health or the Patriots' game plan. There are reassuring tweets from Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport this morning about Lewis' availability, though he'll reportedly test his injury during warmups to be sure. Proceed with caution here, and make sure you're available to use Legarrette Blount as a late swap if needed.

JUSTIN FORSETT | 6400 | Ankle | Questionable
Cash: FADE

I'm on record all week -- in our articles and our podcasts -- with my belief Forsett has a low grade high ankle sprain and was unlikely to play this week. After managing only a limited Friday practice, the Ravens added a running back to the active roster Saturday. According to both Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport, Forsett is optimistic he'll play but will test the ankle during pregame before deciding. I don't see Forsett as a viable contrarian GPP play, but if you roster him, make sure you have a late swap plan in place should his pregame warmup go poorly.

ARIAN FOSTER | 7000 | Groin | Probable

Foster had nearly 30 touches last week and fully practiced on Thursday and Friday. He's still trying to put his injury out of his mind and will continue to be at risk of a setback during the game, but expect Foster to get as many touches as he can handle.

MARSHAWN LYNCH | 6900 | Hamstring | Questionable

Lynch fully practiced this week and will play today. He may not be fully reconditioned yet, however, and is always at risk of pregame back spasms. It's also possible the Seahawks will rotate Thomas Rawls more heavily than usual today.

MARTELLUS BENNETT | 4800 | Quad | Questionable
Cash: FADE

If midweek muscle strains are a red flag, a Friday quad strain for a big-bodied skill position player is a bright crimson concern. Should Bennett play, there's a good chance he'll be used on certain third down and red zone situations only. Don't expect enough volume for DFS value.

Hope variance shines on you today in your DraftKings contests. Footballguys Insiders can read my full breakdown of today's injury expectations.

No comments:

Post a Comment