Sunday, November 29, 2015

DraftKings Value Plays From Footballguys.com for Week 12

Looking for some last minute DraftKings lineup help this week? The staff at Footballguys.com have come up with some great value plays this week to help you fill our your lineup. Check out the Footballguys.com DraftKing Value Plays for Week 12.

Here are some examples:

Chad Parsons - With Charcandrick West inactive against Buffalo, Ware sees the start after a promising showing late in Week 11. At $3,800 (Spencer) Ware is a quality combination of salary and high-floor usage. 

Justin Howe - The Patriots' leader in target share over the last four weeks, (Brandon) LaFell's outlook brightens even further with Danny Amendola unlikely to play. Even a neutral or positive game script aligns LaFell for solid volume (8-10 targets) at worst.

Chris Feery - (Josh) McCown returns to the helm for the Browns and shapes up to be one of the top value plays of the week. The Ravens have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in seven of their ten games this season, look for McCown to make it eight of eleven

Will Grant - With Josh McCown back at QB and the Browns playing a damaged Raven team, look for (Gary) Barnidge to have a solid game on Monday night. He's a nice alternative to higher-priced TEs this weekend. 

Get the rest of the article here and see the rest of the great Footballguys.com DraftKings Content for Week 12

The Contrarian: Week 12 

Looking for a hidden gem or two to help round out your lineups? Then check out The Contrarian for Week 12 where we go through each position to help identify some of this week's top under the radar plays. We also take a look at several situations that may have a few diamonds in the rough that will be lowly owned for Week 12. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's top contrarian selections:

DeAngelo Williams, $5,700
We touched on the strength of the Seahawks rushing defense earlier and how that will lead many to shy away from opposing running backs. While the Seahawks remain strong against the run, stronger teams have had some success – the Panthers in Week 6 and the Cardinals in Week 10. The Steelers may not be quite at that level, but they remain in control of the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. Williams has filled in admirably since assuming the lead back role and he could be in line for a sneaky good performance on Sunday. The Steelers have too many weapons for a slipping Seahawks defense to completely hold them in check.  
You can check out the full article here

The Fade: DraftKings Week 12 

Trying to decide which chalk plays to take a pass on for Week 12? Then check out The Fade where we go through each position and analyze some of the most popular selections of the week. We also walk through several of the key factors and situations that will have a huge impact on ownership percentages for this week and how you can apply it to your lineup building process. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's top fade candidates:

Brian Hoyer, $5,000
The highest-projected scoring game of the week coupled with the Saints struggles on defense will bring a lot of attention to Hoyer and the Texans passing game. A note of caution: we’ve seen several examples this season of struggling teams that come back off of their bye week and put forth an inspired performance. While I’m not expecting any miracles with the Saints defense, we can’t completely rule it out – especially with the Texans seeming to be such a chalk play for Week 12.

You can check out the full article here.

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Week 12 Starting Stacks

Are you trying to determine who to start in your DraftKings GPP tournaments this weekend? Many will be on Thomas Rawls but a Russell Wilson/Jimmy Graham stack will have a much lower ownership percentage and a favorable matchup.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS, TEAM TOTAL 24.75 POINTS


QB Russell Wilson $6,000-TE Jimmy Graham $4,800 Total Stack $10,800 (21.6% of salary)
The Seattle Seahawks are 4.5 point home favorites vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. The game total has risen since opening at 44 points and currently sits at 46 points. The Steelers have allowed the 5th most/passing yards per game (278.4) in the league. The Steelers defense has struggled to contain tight ends this season. Rob Gronkowski had 3 touchdowns in week 1 andAntonio Gates had 2 touchdowns in week 5. Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham both carry attractive DraftKings salaries that allow you to fit in some elite talent at the RB and WR positions. Wilson had 3 touchdowns last week and the 5-5 Seahawks need a win to keep pace in the NFC playoff race


Here is a link to the article which reviews some popular chalk stacks and some more "under the radar" stacks:



Week 12 Cost Efficiency Report

This week, I sought to put together a viable cash lineup that features the highest-projected running back play and the top two wideouts on the universal board. How did it turn out?

Get the rundown on the true value of the top-salaried guys, as well as the mid-range glue guys that keep your cash lineups together, in the Week 12 Cost Efficiency Report. Here's a snippet:

He’s not exciting, but Doug Baldwin ($3,800) is the week’s best bet under the $4,000 mark. Baldwin’s not strictly a punt play – he’s drawn 22 targets and averaged 76.3 yards over his last three. Just a 5-catch, 68-yard line would hold value; if his inclusion in your lineup can squeeze aboard Jones and Hopkins, it’s a low-risk, high-upside combination.


The Daily Grind - DraftKings Changes

In case you missed, it, DraftKings made some changes last week for high volume players.  On Footballguys, I write a weekly column / article that covers the state of DFS and what is going on in the news there every week entitled "The Daily Grind".  This topic and more were covered last week, but here is an excerpt for you on this topic:

DRAFTKINGS CHANGES POLICIES

Earlier this week, DraftKings sent out a statement to its registered users that they were changing their policies regarding the amount of entries each player was allowed at lower level stakes.  Here is the statement:

Hello (UserName),

We wanted to make you aware of some changes to our contest entry limits going forward at DraftKings. 

1. Non-guaranteed Contest Entry Limits 
These limits apply to single-entry non-guaranteed contests (includes all H2H and league contests). They do NOT apply to our guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests.

For the past 2+ years, our limits have been a max of 40 single-entry non-guaranteed contests per game set at $1 and $2 stakes. 

Beginning with contests posted on Monday, November 23, our new limits will be 50 single-entry non-guaranteed contests per game set at $1, $2, $5, and $10 stakes. For example, you can have 50 entries of H2Hs at each of those stakes - i.e. 200 entries total - but any further single-entry non-guaranteed contest entries would need to be at stakes greater than $10.

2. Multi-entry Limits in Guaranteed ContestsWe have thoroughly re-evaluated our multi-entry limits in guaranteed contests at all stakes and have implemented changes that will result in lower multi-entry limits in most contests types, especially at lower stakes, with a maximum of 3% of the field across the board. These limits apply to all contests posted on or after Monday, November 23. 

Please note contests that were posted before today may still reflect the previous entry limits. If you have any questions please contact support@draftkings.com

Best regards,
The DraftKings Team 
This is a good step towards protecting the smaller and middle-sized bankroll players.  Sharks and Pros will now be strongly encouraged to play above the $10 line if they want to get more money in play, so fewer games will be scooped up by big bankroll players.  This seems like DraftKings is both listening to their users and also taking some action towards complying suggestions made by the Massachusetts Attorney General to protect the newer and smaller stakes players.

For more coverage of DFS, be sure to read The Daily Grind every week at Footballguys, and also sign up for our daily emails as this article is emailed to members every week!

Tips and Picks, Week 12 Edition

It's Saturday, which means that John "tipandpick" Lee's weekly article, "Tips and Picks" goes live on Footballguys' Subscriber PRO content. Each and every week, John scours various databases and box scores looking for trends, key injury situations, and personnel matchups to exploit before making salary-based decisions on players to complete your DFS rosters. This week, there are some interesting nuggets that John found in his research and you will want to ensure that you have read all of them prior to clicking 'submit' on your DFS lineups. One such stance is shared below...you can find the rest of the article HERE.




Week 12 Punt Plays

Week 12 Punt Plays


Every week John Lee, Cecil Lammey and I (Jeff Pasquino) discuss our punt plays for DraftKings on The Audible to close out our weekly DFS DraftKings podcast.  These are players that we are looking at to fill in a last spot on our lineups that are relatively cheap.  We have all been there - we have only a few bucks left and 1-2 spots to go in our roster, and we need a good value play to fill in that gap.  The rules we play by are that the player must not cost more than $3,500.

Just like always, I can only use one on the show - and I am not going to steal the thunder from our three picks that make the airwaves - but I will share a few guys that did not make it for the final cut.  Some of them look pretty solid this week, so give them a read and tell me what you think, either in the comments or on twitter (@JeffPasquino).  Here goes:

Robert Woods, WR, Bills ($3,400) - A big, home run hitting wide receiver against the worst team in defending wide receivers (Kansas City)?  Sounds good to me.  

Bilal Powell, RB, Jets ($3,300) - Miami is not good against the run, and Powell offers value as a rusher and a receiver.  Good upside here.

Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers ($3,500) - Jameis Winston is heating up and the Colts will have their hands full with Doug Martin and Sims.  Sims has value as a runner and a receiver against a weak defense in great conditions in a dome here.

Chris Thompson, RB, Washington ($3,200) - Washington still thinks that they have a playoff chance, and throwing is the way to beat the Giants.  Thompson is their best third down back.

David Cobb, RB, Titans ($3,400) - Is this the week that Tennessee finally gets Cobb going?

Thanks for reading as always, and be sure to check out The DraftKings' Audible episode every week, and subscribe to The Audible on iTunes.  Good luck this week!

Saturday Sleepers and GPP Plays: Week 13

The regular season is quickly winding down, but thankfully we have another huge Saturday of College Football and a lobby full of games on DraftKings to keep us busy. There's a ton of ground to cover with 25 games spread across two main slates and while that can seem a bit overwhelming at first glance, having a clear plan of attack can get you through your research in no time and on your way to building some successful lineups.

That's where Saturday Sleepers and GPP Plays comes in handy. We go through both main slates and identify the games to key in on, players that need to be on your radar and the low-cost value plays that can help round out your rosters.This week, there are 29 players included in our analysis - 29 players that you can plug in and build your full lineups with or simply use as building blocks to spread around a hidden gem or two that may be on your radar for this week. You can check out this week's article here and be sure to check out Footballguys for all the info you need to build some winning lineups.

Friday, November 27, 2015

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 12

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of the player insight:

Chris Ivory - $5,800 vs. MIA (6%-10% Projected Ownership)

Ivory’s price is down $300 after he posted a season-low 5.5 fantasy points in the Jets’ road loss to Houston. New York returns home this week, where Ivory is averaging nearly twice as many fantasy points per game as he does on the road. The Dolphins enter this game hemorrhaging fantasy points to opposing running backs. Over the last five weeks they’ve let up over 48% more fantasy points per game to the position than the league average. Vegas has the Jets favored by 3.5 points, which is another split in Ivory’s favor. In the three games New York has been a favorite of at least 3.5 points, Ivory’s fantasy points per game increase by more than 102%.

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Exposed Week 12

Here we take a look at wide receivers and tight ends and examine how defenses will deploy to stop them. We look at some cheaper options that will allow you to load up your roster elsewhere, and some pricier ones that we think you should pay for. We also look at a few wide receivers and tight ends that we don't like this week.

We give consideration to the script of each of the games to determine how these games will likely play out. We also look at players that are injured, or those coming back from injury and all of this helps us to target plays that we like and a few that we don’t.


With the help of our defensive guru Aaron Rudnicki, let’s take a look at players that we both like and a few that we would avoid this week.
You can read Exposed right here.

Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour hosted by RotoGrinders, Week 12

The Lee brothers are back in Week 12 with RotoGrinders' very own, Dan Back, to discuss the Week 12 DFS slate. Austin and John break down the injury situations that are most relevant and potentially impactful for your DFS decisions in the upcoming week. They also discuss Week 11 performances and the resultant recency biases that could result before jumping into their weekly "Over/Under" segment where John and Dan take sides in the Denver-New England Sunday night game. The guys round out the show with the best WR-CB matchups to exploit before closing out with their "Bold Predictions" for the week. Oh yeah...Austin Lee pays off an "ironic" dubsmash that you do not want to miss!




DraftKings Thursday Only Lineups from Footballguys

Looking for your Turkey Day Only lineups on DraftKings today? The Footballguys.com staff have given a sample of their Thursday Only lineups.

What's the most popular defense to use this week?

Is Aaron Rodgers the best QB to have in your lineup?

What QB-WR stacks are the most popular for GPP play?

If you're looking for last minute Thursday lineup ideas, check out Footballguys Thursday Sample Lineups.

Good Luck today and Happy Thanksgiving!


Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Thanksgiving NFL Analysis

On Wednesday evening, John "tipandpick" Lee sat down for a quick Periscope session, where he went through each of the three NFL games for the Thanksgiving DFS slate. In the 25-minute segment, John discussed his takes on each game, including cash game and GPP selections; he also described optimal game strategy that should be employed for tournaments with a limited game set. If you missed the Periscope session, you can check out everything John had to say about the Turkey Day slate HERE.

NOTE: Martellus Bennett has been announced at OUT for the Green Bay-Chicago game--do NOT roster him in any format!







CFB Recap Week 12: SEC Conference

Our conference recaps are a great place to begin preparing for the week ahead in College Football as we take an in depth look at the week that was and dig into the situations that bear monitoring. Who's hot? Who's not? What are some situations to key in on or avoid? You can find the answers inside this week's recaps. Here's a sneak peek at our analysis of one of Week 12's games in the SEC:

MISSISSIPPI STATE @ ARKANSAS
Game Recap: It was a wild back and forth affair that saw stellar play from quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Brandon Allen, 14 total touchdowns and a walk-off win on a blocked field goal as Mississippi State prevailed 51-50.  
Key Players: Mississippi State – We’re running out of superlatives to describe the play of Dak Prescott, who was simply amazing again on Saturday. Prescott threw for 508 yards, five touchdowns and a pick and added on 46 rushing yards and two scores on the ground for good measure. As a whole, the Bulldogs had 631 total yards of offense. Brandon Holloway chipped in 164 combined yards and a score. Fred Ross and DeRunnya Wilson hauled in 10 passes apiece, with Ross contributing 154 yards and two touchdowns while Wilson had 93 yards and found the end zone once.  
Arkansas: The Razorbacks leaned heavily on the passing game and Brandon Allen delivered – and then some. Allen completed 30 of 43 for 406 yards, seven touchdowns and no picks. The running was mostly held in check in Saturday’s shootout as the team combined for 73 yards on the ground, mainly thanks to Alex Collins, who carried the ball 19 times for 53 yards. Tight end Hunter Henry led all receivers with seven catches for 129 yards and two scores, Drew Morgan chipped in 7/84/1 and Jared Cornelius contributed 5/81/1. Junior tight end Jeremy Sprinkle broke out with six catches for 47 yards and three touchdowns.  
Key Injuries: None.
Players to Watch: Mississippi State – The Bulldogs welcome Ole Miss to town for the Egg Bowl and what should be a highly-entertaining game this week. Prescott remains at the top of the short list for DFS and will likely be a popular target for what could be a high-scoring affair. Holloway should be considered as a GPP flier, while Wilson and Ross will work nicely as a stack with Prescott, with a nod to Wilson as the top receiving option.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks have a tough matchup with Missouri this Friday. Although Missouri can be tough defensively, it’s hard to disregard Allen with the way he has played this season. Collins is a little easier to take a pass on but still deserves consideration, although there will likely be more affordable options in better spots. Henry and Morgan remain the top options for a stack with Allen, but monitor the news on Morgan as he appeared to be playing in pain this past week.
You can check out the full SEC Conference recap for Week 12 here

Sunday, November 22, 2015

DraftKings Value Plays and Lineups Week 11

Looking for last minute DraftKings lineup help? Footballguys.com has just what you are looking for.

Footballguys staff has created their weekly DraftKings Value Plays and has plenty of lineup suggestions for you such as:

Ryan Hester - In the absence of Julian Edelman, Amendola will get more volume. He isn't likely to get Edelman's full role, but the part of predominant target on New England's offensive machine is one that should be priced higher than this

Chad Parsons - The Chiefs have been gouged by opposing receivers this season, allowing five 100-yard performances with seven more above 80 yards. Johnson is the best remaining Chargers option after Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd's injuries.

Will Grant - Julian Edelman is done for the season, which means the other receivers are going to pick up the slack. Most people like Amendola, but I'm going the other way. I think Brandon LaFell benefits this most this week

Justin Howe - (Cam Newton) The rushing TDs are high, but not necessarily fluky - he's taken 7 rushes from inside the 10 over the last four weeks. And his passing matchup is juicy this week. His strong discount from Tom Brady makes him quite possibly the top cash play of the week.

If you are looking for sample lineups, Footballguys has those as well.

QBs like Newton and Carson Palmer

RBs like Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart

WRs Brandon Lafell and Stevie Johnson 

And lots of other options

Check out other great DraftKings Content  from Footballguys.com.


Saturday, November 21, 2015

Exposed for Week 11

With the help of our defensive guru Aaron Rudnicki, we take a look at wide receivers and tight ends and examine how defenses will deploy to stop them. We look at some cheaper options that will allow you to load up your roster elsewhere, and some pricier ones that we think you should pay for. We also look at a few wide receivers and tight ends that we don't like this week.

The Contrarian: DraftKings Week 11

Last week was one of the most contrarian weeks in recent memory as we saw several big upsets and numerous games that went totally off course from their anticipated game scripts. Going forward, how can we identify games that just might play out a little differently? This week's article has the answer. We also go through each position to help you identify some of this week's potential hidden gems. Here's a sneak peek at one our selections for Week 11:

Travis Kelce, $4,700
The Chiefs have turned things around and are in the midst of a three game winning streak as they enter the stretch run. Kelce is averaging 13.8 points per game and has been pretty quiet this year, especially in relation to the proverbial leap forward he was expected to take. Look for Kelce to join in on the fun this week as the Chargers have struggled against opposing tight ends. The emerging Charcandrick West should also open things up for the passing game, for which Kelce is a solid No.2 target behind Jeremy Maclin.
You can check out the rest of this week's selections here

The Fade: DraftKings Week 11

Each week, The Fade goes position by position to identify some of the players who are expected to be among the highest-owned players at their respective positions. Taking a pass on a chalk play and instead rostering a less popular selection with similar upside can provide some nice returns if everything pans out correctly. Of course, fading a chalk play carries some risk. If that chalk play delivers a high-level performance and is nowhere to be found on your rosters, you'll come down with a serious case of Monday Morning second-guessing.

So how do we decide which chalk plays to fade and which ones really are must-plays? You can check out this week's article for the answer and a full list of players that deserve consideration for your fade list for Week 11. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's candidates:

Charcandrick West, $4,500
Speaking of value, West looks to be criminally underpriced on DraftKings for this week. For $4,500, you can purchase a back that will carry the ball 20+ times, receive a few targets and produce solid numbers. Yes, please! Unfortunately, West is no longer flying under the radar and should be one of the more popular selections at running back. He has seized control of the Chiefs backfield and is averaging 25.73 points per game since taking over the lead back role. The misprice will not go unnoticed by many as West is being widely touted as a must-play for Week 11. At $4,500, it’s pretty hard to argue against that moniker and West looks like a tough player to fade.
This screams out as being one of the selections that will cause a ton of reflection when all is said and done. Perhaps let the rest of your lineup for this week be your guide. If you have several high-priced players that you just have to have, West may be a no-brainer as he’ll produce and provide you with a ton of flexibility. On the other hand, if you have some under the radar low-cost gems that you’re all about for Week 11, take a pass on West and be prepared to explain your decision when it comes time to reflect on your lineups for the week.

You can check out the rest of this week's selections here.

Tips and Picks, Week 11 Edition

It's Saturday...which means it's time for John "tipandpick" Lee's weekly article, "Tips and Picks" to be released as Subscriber PRO content on Footballguys.com. This week, John identifies 34 different cash game and GPP selections to help you build your DFS lineups for DraftKings in Week 11. On a week where three of the bottom-ranked defenses (NO, CLE, NYG) are not playing and the Steelers' strong offense is also resting, the value is more difficult to identify...particularly when many of the most reliable wide receivers are going to be blanketed by the best coverage cornerbacks in the league. Luckily for Subscriber PRO members, that information has all been distilled into a single, but comprehensive 5,000-word article. Do not enter a single lineup on Sunday without weighing your picks against "Tips and Picks!" Click HERE for the full version, but first see below for a snippet for the Week 11 edition:





Week 11 Tournament Starting Stacks

Six backup QBs starting this week! Who do you stack and who do you sit? Here is one stack that should have a low ownership percentage:

Mark Sanchez and the Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Team Total 25.5 points
QB Mark Sanchez $5,000-WR Jordan Matthews $6,000 Total Stack $11,000 (22.0% of salary)
QB Mark Sanchez $5,000-TE Zach Ertz $3,100 Total Stack 8,100 (16.2% of salary)
The Philadelphia Eagles are a 5.5 point home favorite vs. the Tampa Bay Bucs. The game total is a modest 45.5 points. Mark Sanchez will start his first game of the season for the injured Sam Bradford. Sanchez carries a minimum DraftKings salary and has good  fantasy history playing in Chip Kelly's offense. Sanchez threw multiple touchdowns in 6 of his 9 games played in this offense in 2014. He showed a chemistry with Jordan Matthews who benefited with three 100+ yard receiving games and six touchdowns. Zach Ertz is a cheap option to stack with at least four receptions over his past five games. The Bucs defense is allowing 26.3 points per game this season and has shown lapses in defensive coverage this season. 

Check out  the entire article here and good luck this week:

Week 11 Stacks

Saturday Sleepers and GPP Plays: Week 12

The College Football regular season is quickly winding down, but thankfully we have another huge Saturday of wall-to-wall action right in front of us. DraftKings is doing their part to help us wind down the regular season in style as they have their usual lobby full of games available to fit any budget.

We have two main slates to dig into with 28 games in total - 15 for the early slate and 13 for the late slate. That's a ton of information to digest, but we've got you covered with a plan of attack. Saturday Sleepers and GPP Plays breaks down both main slates and tells you which games to key in on, players that need to be on your radar and gives you a bunch of value plays to help round out your lineups.

You can check out this week's article here and be sure to visit Footballguys for all the tools and info you need to build some winning lineups.

Friday, November 20, 2015

Week 11 Punt Plays

Week 11 Punt Plays


Every week John Lee, Cecil Lammey and I (Jeff Pasquino) discuss our punt plays for DraftKings on The Audible to close out our weekly DFS DraftKings podcast.  These are players that we are looking at to fill in a last spot on our lineups that are relatively cheap.  We have all been there - we have only a few bucks left and 1-2 spots to go in our roster, and we need a good value play to fill in that gap.  The rules we play by are that the player must not cost more than $3,500.

So who made my short list for this week?  Well, I can only use one on the show - and I am not going to steal the thunder from our three picks that make the airwaves - but I will share a few guys that did not make it for the final cut.  Some of them look pretty solid this week, so give them a read and tell me what you think, either in the comments or on twitter (@JeffPasquino).  Here goes:

Robert Woods, WR, Bills ($3,400) - A big, home run hitting wide receiver on Monday Night Football against the Patriots?  Sounds like a reasonable gamble, especially in the game with the biggest Las Vegas total at 49 points.

Dontrell Inman, WR, Chargers ($3,000) - No truth to the rumors that the Chargers were having open tryouts at wide receiver on their bye week, but what is true is that San Diego has limited options again this week against Kansas City.  The Chiefs are terrible against wide receivers, and Inman could be the WR2 this week starting for San Diego.

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks ($3,500) - Props to Cecil Lammey who wanted this as his punt play for the week, but we talked him up too much on the show!  Great pick if you can squeeze him in as the top wideout for Seattle in a game where they should coast and be able to do pretty much whatever they want on offense.

David Givens, WR, Ravens ($3,200) - Joe Flacco has to throw to someone, right?  The Rams are not the easiest secondary to face, but Givens did find the end zone last week and he could do it again.


Thanks for reading as always, and be sure to check out The DraftKings' Audible episode every week, and subscribe to The Audible on iTunes.  Good luck this week!

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour hosted by RotoGrinders, Week 11

Every Wednesday night, RotoGrinders' very own, Dan Back, hosts an hour-long show with Footballguys Austin and John Lee to discuss everything and anything related to NFL DFS. This week, the guys opened the show with injury situations and their DFS implications, followed up by a review of Week 10 fantasy performances; after discussing recency biases and how DFS players might exploit them, the crew debated a series of "Over/Unders," where they take sides on key performances for the upcoming week. Week 11 is particularly intriguing because many of the top receivers are expected to receive top cornerback coverage--the Footballguys ponder which options are still in play and which ones we should avoid before tackling the Thursday night football game and finishing off the show with their patented bold predictions.

Regular viewers will know that a friendly wager is placed each week on a "dubsmash" and this week's loser was John "tipandpick" Lee, who did his best Barry Gibbs' impression; check out the entire episode and let us know what you thought on Twitter!




CFB Recap Week 11: SEC Conference 

The College Football season may be quickly winding down but there's still plenty of situations to monitor that can directly impact your DFS lineups for this week. Our conference recaps are a great place to start your weekly research as we go game-by-game through all of the major teams to let you know who's hot, who's not and which players are emerging as threats. You can check out this week's recap of the SEC Conference here and be sure to check out Footballguys for all of the info you need to build some winning lineups.  

Week 11 red zone outlooks


Nothing matters to us more than the red zone, and here are some quarterback notes as I finish my Week 11 projections:
  • Matthew Stafford got the message from his Week 5 mini-benching; he's looked downright competent over his last four starts. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of them, and his outlook for extending that streak is white-hot. Dating back to Week 6, only the Saints have allowed more red zone TD passes than the Raiders. Stafford himself has thrown well in the red zone, and the Lions are home underdogs. As a result, my model gives him the week's best red zone TD projection (1.78).
  • Andy Dalton has been remarkably efficient in the red zone, turning 17 red zone passes into touchdowns over his last four games. That's not the kind of volume we want from our QB, and it's hard to keep up such strong efficiency. but it's a fair GPP stab in Dalton's case. He's an underrated passer and his weapons are very real, but the narratives and inching-up salary should keep his ownership pretty low.
  • Over a four-game span, only Tyrod Taylor has thrown as few passes in the red zone (9) as Russell Wilson. The Seahawks offense is sputtering, keeping Wilson from short-yardage opportunity while sharing a backfield with Marshawn Lynch. And in a devastating twist of post-Super Bowl irony, the Seahawks just aren't interested in using Wilson's arm near the goal line. The Jimmy Graham connection isn't being explored, and Wilson hasn't thrown 2+ touchdowns since Week 2. That won't shift soon, especially in a divisional battle with a 49ers defense that's allowed just two red zone TD passes since Week 6.
Keep checking our running Week 11 content to synthesize all of this into your lineup process!


Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Week 12 College Football MACtion Tuesday-Wednesday Slate Breakdown

It's hard to believe the season is coming to a close. If you haven't tried out college football, this should be a fun two day slate with some high scoring exciting games.

Quarterbacks-

1) Matt Johnson- $8,800- Bowling Green is one of the premiere offenses in the country and Toledo has a great run defense. Where Toledo is weak is the secondary allowing 261 yards per game passing, which should open up some great opportunities for Johnson. The issue is that he is going to be difficult to fit into your roster due to his price. However, if you pair him up with Ryan Graham, the price becomes much more manageable and he is a great cash game play due to this game projected to be very high scoring.

2) Phillip Ely$7,000- If you were to take out the game that Phillip Ely had against Northern Illinois, he has 335 yards passing and 3.7 touchdowns per game over those three previous games. This game is projected to be a high scoring game, and Bowling Green is allowing 270 yards per game which should allow Ely to have tremendous upside. There is some risk though as Toledo has a very balanced offense at times, but Ely has thrown for 35.5 attempts per game since Hunt returned, which as long as he is getting that volume should make him safe for cash games and GPP's. 

3) Ryan Graham- $5,700- Graham is the top punt play on the slate, as he did not see his price increase this week. Making his first home start, Graham should be able to use his dual-threat ability to make value on the ground and through the air. Graham does not have enough upside for GPP's, but should be a nice punt for cash games.

4) Zach Terrell- $7,600- Zach Terrell has not been the same over the last two games, and things don't get any easier this week as he is going on the road to face a Northern Illinois defense that is better than the past two defenses than he has faced. At this price, he is a GPP play only as while he still does have upside based on having two great wide receivers, he is not a cash game play this week.

5) Derrius Vick (If Active)- $5,400- Ball State is 120th in total defense, Derrius Vick is a quarterback who has started running the ball more as ran for 107 yards last week. He is questionable this week, but if he plays he makes a good GPP play.

Running Backs


1) Joel Bouagnon- $7,000- Joel Bouagnon is one of the most consistent running backs in college football as he has ran for over 100 yards in each of his last five games, and has scored a touchdown in all but one game this season. Western Michigan's defense showed how poor they were against the run last week when Travis Greene had the best game of his season with 170 yards and 3 touchdowns.

2) Kareem Hunt- $7,400- Kareem Hunt has returned to 2014 form, as over the last two games he is averaging 127 yards and two touchdowns per game. Bowling Green's defense is not great as they allow 169 yards rushing per game, and Hunt should continue having success. He is a great GPP and cash game play this week.

3) Jamauri Bogan- $5,600- Jamauri has taken over the running back position for Western Michigan as he is averaging 20 carries in each of the last two games. What is even more impressive is that the 5'7'' 174 pound running back has scored 10 touchdowns in his last four games. He runs with a tremendous amount of power and should have a great day this week.

4) Travis Greene- $7,000- Travis Greene burned us last week, as we had him as a GPP only play and he went off for 170 yards and three touchdowns. We aren't letting recency bias factor in here, as we still recommend him only as a GPP play this week, as he is facing a Toledo team that is one of the best run defenses in the country allowing only 114 yards per game on the ground. Greene is finally healthy after dealing with injury most of the season, but due to the matchup we are recommending other plays this week.

Wide Receivers-

1) Roger Lewis- $7,600- If you spend up on Roger Lewis, you're paying for consistency, in seven of his last eight games he has gone over 25 points, which at a discounted $7,600 makes for a great play this week. He is the top option for cash game and GPP's due to his 200 yard upside. Toledo has a very strong run defense, which will force Bowling Green to throw the ball more than the last few weeks in order to score.

2) Kenny Golladay-$6,600- Golladay has taken a major step forward since a key injury to Tommylee Lewis who is questionable for this game although it is looking like he is unlikely to play. Over the last two games, Golladay has is averaging seven receptions for 135 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. He faces a Western Michigan team that has been one of the better teams in the MAC against the pass, but still has a high enough target % rate that he is a top play for this slate.

3) Corey Davis- $7,200- Corey Davis from an actual game standpoint has been tremendous. The issue is for fantasy is that he is not getting into the end zone. He had a three touchdown game two weeks ago and followed that back up with a 13 catch 159 yard performance last week, but without the touchdown upside the floor for Corey Davis is lower than comparable wide receivers such as Roger Lewis. We like Davis a lot due to seeing a high number of targets, but when you're comparing these elite wide receivers you have to differentiate between the smallest thing. The matchup is also worse as he is facing a Northern Illinois team that only allows 222 yards passing per game compared to Toledo's 260 yards per game. He is a tremendous GPP play as he will be under-owned compared to Roger Lewis, but we are not recommending using him in cash games this week.

4) Sebastian Smith $4,900- Sebastian Smith has had a minimum of 11.9 points over his last five games and has had 17 or more points in seven of his last nine games. Ball State has one of the worst defenses in college football allowing 300 yards passing per game, which while we do not expect Ohio to have over 300 yards passing, it still presents a great opportunity for Sebastian to continue the trend of having 17 or more points which would be a great value on this slate.

Cheap Flex Plays Under $4,500
1) Argeros Turner- $4,200

2) Cody Thompson- $3,900
3) Antwan Dixon- $3,900
4) A.J Ouellette- $3,500
4) Ryan Burbrink- $4,500
5) Kevonn Mabon- $4,100
6) Jordan Huff- $3,800

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @ohiostate241 or check out the Footballguys message boards where we will have slate discussion prior to tonight’s games. Good luck everybody.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

DraftKings Sunday Value Plays

Looking for value plays in your Sunday DraftKings lineups? The staff at footballguys.com have complied their list of sleeper picks for this weekend.

Check out Footballguys DraftKings Value Plays if you need a sleeper pick or two.

Here are a couple comments from the article:

Alessandro Miglio - This price is downright silly. Blake Bortles is a top-10 fantasy quarterback on the year, and the Baltimore defense has given up the second-most fantasy PPG to opposing quarterbacks. Talk about a chalk play...

Will Grant - McFadden is still a solid value play this week against Tampa Bay. He's basically the workhorse back in Dallas and he's running with purpose behind that massive offensive line. The passing game is still struggling for the Cowboys, so McFadden should have plenty of touches this week as well.

Justin Howe - Shorts is a fine minimum play, even as he (likely) shares time with Nate Washington. He's averaged nine targets per game when healthy, and the Texans will fall behind Cincinnati early. 

Phil Alexander - Since Week 5, Murray is averaging 23.75 total touches per game, which is up from 13.33 over his first three games. Miami has let up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, and are fresh off a game in which Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy both went over a hundred yards and scored a touchdown against them.

Check out the full article here

The Contrarian: DraftKings Week 10

Looking for some hidden gems to round out your lineups? Then check out The Contrarian for Week 10 where we go through each position to help you find some players that just might be flying under the radar this week - but shouldn't be. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's candidates:

DeMarco Murray, $6,200
Don’t look now but Murray may finally be fitting into the Eagles offense. He has scored 24+ points in three of his last four games and even found the end zone three times over that span. After a stellar start to the Dan Campbell experience down in Miami, the Dolphins have come back to earth. Just last week, they allowed 222 rushing yards and three scores to the Bills. DFSers that were burned several times in the early part of the season may have a hard time coming back, but Murray makes for a great investment this week at a reasonable price.
Hitting on a few selections that are less than 10% owned can really separate your lineups from the pack. You can check out this week's article here

Ask tipandpick @ 11 AM

The Footballguys are proud to announced a new weekly feature, "Ask tipandpick." Simply put, you ask a question, you get an answer LIVE via Periscope. The process is simple: Head to our DFS forum, ask the question that is most bothering you leading into Week 10's game slate, and John "tipandpick" Lee will read through the thread at 11 AM (EST) to answer as many questions as possible in 30 minutes. Here is the link for the "Ask tipandpick" thread.



Best of luck in your contests this weekend!

Saturday, November 14, 2015

The Fade: DraftKings Week 10

The Fade returns for Week 10 to help you zero in on some players you may want to consider taking a pass on. Here's a sneak peek at one of this week's candidates for the fade list:

Drew Brees, $7,400
With the way Brees has been rolling for the past few weeks, he’s pretty tough to take a pass on. Over the past two weeks, he has thrown for 892 yards and 10 touchdowns. Washington also offers up a favorable matchup as they have allowed two touchdown passes in each of their last three games. Add in a projected total of 50 points and we find ourselves staring at one of the most popular plays of the week.
For the case against Brees as a top producer, we can look to the fact that the game is away from the comforts of the Superdome and that he is one of the most expensive signal callers of the week. Can we save some salary and find similar upside? A little south on the salary charts we have Eli Manning at $6,700 in a potentially high-scoring game against the Patriots and MVP candidate Andy Dalton at $6,500 as he prepares for a Monday Night affair against the Texans. We could even gain some exposure to this game and go contrarian by selecting Kirk Cousins at $5,200. Brees is a great candidate for this week’s fade list as we can find similar upside at cheaper price points.  
You can check out the full article here.



Tips and Picks, Week 10 Edition

Each week, Footballguys staffer, John "tipandpick" Lee, studies box scores, trends, and personnel changes to identify value-based plays for DraftKings' daily games. This week is no different, as John discusses over 30 players you should be considering for your cash games and tournament plays for the Week 10 slate. If you are risking your hard-earned money in DraftKings' games, you would be doing yourself a disservice if you do not read this column beforehand...here is just one snippet from this week's edition:


For similar content delivered directly to your Twitter feed:

Week 10 Cost Efficiency Report

We know what Matt Cassel is (and isn't), but is there enough value in his matchup to throw him into a GPP stack with the recharged Dez Bryant?

Is there a Broncos running back worth rolling the dice on in a Vegas-approved home matchup?

Which minimum-salaried receiver has a reasonable path to the 12 points he'd need to serve as a successful punt play?

Is Gary Barnidge over?

These explanations and more are available in Week 10's Cost Efficiency Report, which does the math for you to identify the shrewd low-cost plays.