Saturday, November 7, 2015

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 9

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Aaron Rodgers - $7,400 @ CAR

It would be shocking to see more than 2% of the field pay up for Rodgers as the QB2 in a tough on-paper matchup with the Panthers -- especially after his disastrous 77 yard passing performance in a nationally televised game. But Rodgers is the best quarterback in the world, he’s likely to have a chip on his shoulder after getting embarrassed in the national spotlight, and the Packers are in a sneaky good spot this week. Carolina’s defense has to be a little worn out coming off an exhausting overtime win over the Colts on Monday night, and now they have to prepare to face Rodgers on a short week. Vegas has the Packers favored by 2.5 points on the road and their implied team total of 24.25 points suggests Rodgers still has his usual three touchdown upside. In a week where the masses will flock to Tom BradyPhilip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Eli Manning, Rodgers is a high upside lineup differentiator.

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