Saturday, November 14, 2015

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 10

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of the player insight:

Calvin Johnson - $7500 @ GB (6% to 10% Projected Ownership)

Johnson underwhelmed and got banged up in his last game before the Lions bye week. He shouldn’t be a popular play with guys like Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery (groin injury notwithstanding) available for slightly less. Green Bay ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA to opposing WR1s. Their top cornerback -- Sam Shields -- missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury, and even if he can return this week to match up with Johnson, there’s concern about his ability to extend his arm upwards. Johnson always seems to get up for Packers games. Since 2011, his fantasy points per game have increased by 14% against Green Bay. In his last three trips to Lambeau Field, Johnson has averaged a monstrous 8-134-1 receiving line.

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