Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Week 11 College Football MACtion Tuesday-Wednesday Slate Breakdown

As we are now into the last quarter of the season, baseball is finally over which means one thing, MACtion. For those of you who have not played college football before, MACtion is described as the mid-week games between Mid-American Conference opponents which have a history of being very high scoring and very popular among daily fantasy players due to being fun games to watch.

This is the first week where we have a full four game slate, so this should be a great slate to tryout some small conference football if you have not done so previously. 


1) Matt Johnson- $9,500- Matt Johnson continues to be the most consistent quarterback in college football this season, but the price has finally caught up to him where he is no longer a must play. Johnson has thrown for 300+ yards in every game this season and has thrown for four or more touchdowns in four straight games. If you are able to make it work with his salary he is the most consistent player of this slate, and is likely going to reach 30+ points again this week. The challenge is with how few punt plays there are this week being able to fit him into your lineup.

2) Cooper Rush$5,600- Cooper Rush is likely the safest value quarterback on the board this week primarily driven by total volume in the passing game compared to the other options on this slate. Cooper has thrown for 300+ yards in five of the team’s nine games this season including three of his last four. He has also thrown for two or more touchdowns in five straight games, which provides a nice floor compared to the other options this week at the quarterback position. While he is unlikely to score more than Terrell, he is a better value than Terrell thus slotting him into our #2 ranked quarterback for this week. 

3) Zach Terrell- $8,000 Zach Terrell is not a better overall play than Matt Johnson, but the $1,500 that you’ll save by going with Terrell could potentially allow you to go and get a player like Roger Lewis. Terrell has thrown for three or more touchdowns in four of his last five games, and while he is not going to put up the yardage that Matt Johnson has the potential to, he is averaging 30 yards rushing which is equivalent to an extra 75 yards passing. The matchup is a great one for Terrell, as Bowling Green is allowing 268 yards passing per game which is second most in the MAC. With an over/under of 75, Terrell makes for a great play this week particularly in GPP’s, as it is a nice pivot off of Johnson who is likely to be one of the higher owned plays of the day.

4) Ryan Graham- $5,700- While I actually saw Ryan Graham play in high school, we still know very little about the Freshman Ryan Graham, but in the one half that we saw him play, he fits the mold of the typical Northern Illinois quarterback as he has that dual-threat that we have come to know in Dekalb. Filling in for Hare, Graham played great rushing for 41 yards and passing for 132 and a touchdown against a good defensive Toledo team. This week the freshman takes on a Buffalo team that has been vulnerable against both the pass and the run. Northern Illinois is projected to score the third most points on this slate, and while the usage rate of Graham will be less than other quarterbacks due to the strong running game at Northern Illinois, he will have an opportunity to have a big game this week and is a great tournament play or a pivot off of Cooper Rush as one of the top values on this slate.

Running Backs

1) Joel Bouagnon- $6,000- Joel Bouagnon’s broke a streak of four straight 100 yard games last week, but was still able to continue his touchdown streak which has now extended to six straight games and eight of his teams nine games this season. While Buffalo has great numbers on paper against running backs, they really have not faced a running back of Bouagnon’s quality all season, and have allowed three running backs to go over 100 yards on the year. Bouagnon should see the most volume of any running back on this slate particularly now that Tommylee Lewis is questionable and starting quarterback Drew Hare is out for the game. Bouagnon is a premiere cash game option for this slate.

2) Kareem Hunt- $6,600- Finally we are starting to see Kareem Hunt’s health improve to a point where he is seeing back to back weeks of 20 touches. For those of that are new to college football Hunt averaged 8.0 yards per carry and while he has not returned to that level due to primarily health reasons, he is still averaging 5.1 yards per carry over his last two games. The matchup is a difficult one as Central Michigan has held opponents to 135 yards per game, and he is still sharing carries with Terry Swanson, so while he has great GPP upside, he is a difficult start in cash games.

3) Anthone Taylor- $5,300- The Buffalo Bulls are welcoming back Anthone Taylor to their starting lineup after being limited for the past few weeks and it couldn’t have come at a better time. He is stepping in to face a Northern Illinois team that allowed 291 yards rushing last week to Toledo, and on the year has allowed 161 yards per game rushing. If we could be guaranteed that Taylor is 100% healthy he would easily be the number one play on the day at this value, but he did see 16 carries last week and surpassed the Jordan Johnson who only had 14. While he did not do much in a tough matchup against a good Kent State run defense, this will be the best opportunity for him to return to early season form that he has left in the season. He is a great GPP play, and at the value should be strongly considered for cash games just note that the injury may still exist, so he may not see more than 15-20 carries, but that is all he should need to reach value this week.

4) Jamauri Bogan- $5,600 If we were to be asked name a running back that won’t lose his job in 2015, Jarvion Franklin would likely be on the top of that list, as he had 300 carries last year for 1551 yards. However Bogan as a true freshman continues to take carries away from Franklin on a weekly basis and for strong reason. Bogan is averaging 6.5 yards per carry compared to Franklin’s 4.9, and has scored eight touchdowns over the last three games. Watching the 5’7 174 pound Bogan has the speed, but also enough power to break a few tackles and get goal line work. There is some risk here, as he is not receiving the volume of carries as other running backs such as Bouagnon, but Bogan has been one of the hottest running backs in college football and with an over/under of 75, he should be safe to find the end zone at least once.

5) Travis Greene- $6,500- Last week we were burned by Travis Greene’s three touchdown game, which he had on only 13 carries. Prior to last week, Greene only had scored three touchdowns in his last six total weeks. While we don’t believe Greene will ever get back to his 2013 numbers, we just have to accept him for what he is at this point and that is a running back who is going to get 13-17 carries per game. Western Michigan has been vulnerable against the run this season allowing 168 yards per game on the ground, and while everyone in this game is in play, the price increase to $6,500 is too much for us to safely use him this week. He should be considered a GPP play only.

Wide Receivers-

1) Corey Davis- $6,700 Finally we are seeing the Corey Davis that we saw last year, as he had 78 receptions for 1,408 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. While he got off to a slow start, he now has three straight games over 100 yards, and last week scored three touchdowns. This is the premiere matchup of the day, as the over/under is 75. Corey Davis is a must play in cash games and 

2) Roger Lewis- $7,900 
Outside of Corey Coleman, Roger Lewis might be the best wide receiver in college football. In seven of the last eight games, Lewis has gone over 100 yards with a touchdown. He has three games this season with 200+ yards. The matchup this week is a good one, as this game is projected to be a high scoring game with an over/under of 75. Lewis is expensive and maybe tough to fit into your lineup, but if you’re able to fit him in makes for a great play this week.

3) Kenny Golladay-$6,000- With Tommylee Lewis out, Golladay returned to having a great game last week. With Tommylee Lewis questionable and looking unlikely to play, Golladay should be in for another big role this week. In the three games that Lewis has been limited, Golladay has 485 yards and three touchdowns. Buffalo has allowed three 300+ yard passers in their last four games, so the matchup is a good one for Golladay to continue his big game trend. If Lewis is playing he immediately becomes one of the top value options for the slate and downgrades Golladay.

4) Sebastian Smith $5,200- Most people have never heard of Sebastian Smith, and to be honest they’re missing out on a very good football player. The issue is offensively, Ohio is just a bad football team, and he doesn’t get a lot of end zone looks compared to other players in the MAC. Over his last four games, Sebastian Smith has 9+ receptions in three of these four games with two touchdowns. While the matchup is not ideal on paper as Kent State has only allowed 209 yards passing per game, they did allow 430 yards passing to Bowling Green two weeks ago, and with Smith being the only consistent receiver on the team we expect him to see a significant number of targets.

5) Daniel Braverman $7,200- Braverman's production has really fallen off over the last two weeks, but he still is second in overall catches, 9th in total yardage, and 7th in touchdowns. In a game with an over/under of 75, we would expect a wide receiver like this to typically be very highly owned and recommended. However, over the last two games he has burned many people as he is only averaging five receptions for 75 yards and no touchdowns. This presents a great GPP option, as many people are going to go with the cheaper Corey Davis based on recent production, and we are right there with them. If Braverman returns to form due to his ownership percentage he can win you a GPP, as he has five games this season with 13 or more receptions.

Cheap Flex Plays Under $4,500
1) Anthony Rice- $4,400

2) Mark Chapman- $4,100
3) Matt Weiser- $4,200
4) Tommylee Lewis (If Active)- $4,000
5) Corey Willis- $3,100
6) Raekwon James- $3,900

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @ohiostate241 or check out the Footballguys message boards where we will have slate discussion prior to tonight’s games. Good luck everybody.

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