Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Week 11 red zone outlooks

Nothing matters to us more than the red zone, and here are some quarterback notes as I finish my Week 11 projections:
  • Matthew Stafford got the message from his Week 5 mini-benching; he's looked downright competent over his last four starts. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of them, and his outlook for extending that streak is white-hot. Dating back to Week 6, only the Saints have allowed more red zone TD passes than the Raiders. Stafford himself has thrown well in the red zone, and the Lions are home underdogs. As a result, my model gives him the week's best red zone TD projection (1.78).
  • Andy Dalton has been remarkably efficient in the red zone, turning 17 red zone passes into touchdowns over his last four games. That's not the kind of volume we want from our QB, and it's hard to keep up such strong efficiency. but it's a fair GPP stab in Dalton's case. He's an underrated passer and his weapons are very real, but the narratives and inching-up salary should keep his ownership pretty low.
  • Over a four-game span, only Tyrod Taylor has thrown as few passes in the red zone (9) as Russell Wilson. The Seahawks offense is sputtering, keeping Wilson from short-yardage opportunity while sharing a backfield with Marshawn Lynch. And in a devastating twist of post-Super Bowl irony, the Seahawks just aren't interested in using Wilson's arm near the goal line. The Jimmy Graham connection isn't being explored, and Wilson hasn't thrown 2+ touchdowns since Week 2. That won't shift soon, especially in a divisional battle with a 49ers defense that's allowed just two red zone TD passes since Week 6.
Keep checking our running Week 11 content to synthesize all of this into your lineup process!

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