Championship Round Cost Efficiency Breakdown

Check in with the Championship Round Cost Efficiency Breakdown before lineup lock. On a tiny slate with two volatile matchups, you'll need to create your edge by squeezing every drop of delicious value-nectar from what DraftKings' pricing algorithm has drummed up. Find out which team's wideouts are the likeliest cheat code, which aged quarterback to avoid, and which bottom-salaried running back has a flicker of potential to lead his team in touches.

Follow @JustinHoweFF

Conference Championship Round GPP Breakdown: AFC

Some quick notes before diving into this week's slate:

• DraftKings is still offering head-to-heads and 50-50s this week. If you were still playing cash games the last two weeks, you likely found yourself in plenty of scenarios where three or less players decided the outcome of your contest due to roster overlap between you and your opponents. With two less games to choose players from this week, the overlap will be amplified. Any edge you had over your opponents no longer exists due to the razor thin player pool. More so than with the wildcard and divisional rounds, this is a week for GPPs only -- and even then you should be playing mostly for fun.
• To that end, DraftKings is running some lucrative large field tournaments -- the $1 Million Conference Championship ($20 entry, 57K person field) and $1.25 Million Play Action ($3 entry, 479K person field) both pay $100,000 to the winner. Play what your bankroll allows, but if you were the type of player to enter two $20 GPPs per week during the regular season, I would suggest taking that $40 and spreading it out over 20 or so entries into smaller tournaments. To make a deep run this week, your margin for error is literally zero. If you don't get every single player who has a big game into your lineup, you'll be buried in the standings. Unless you get incredibly lucky, it's going to take a few variations to hit the right combination of players.
• It's the last week of anything resembling NFL DFS until preseason starts up more than six months from now. Enjoy the last taste, but it's worth repeating -- even the best player's edge is minimal to non-existent on this slate. Don't give back the winnings you worked so hard to pile up this season just because this is the last action you'll see for awhile. 

Huge thanks to all the readers and Footballguys subscribers for making work a pleasure this year, and good luck on Sunday!

Patriots

Denver ranked inside the top-8 in all of the pertinent pass defense metrics -- DVOA (1st), opponent completion percentage (8th), passing yards per game (2nd), passing touchdown percentage (8th), yards per pass attempt (1st), and sack percentage (1st). As a result, Vegas has shown the Broncos defense respect by setting New England's implied team total at 23.5 points. It's a number I envision Tom Brady ($7,400) and company cruising past fairly easily. The Patriots scored at least 27 points in every one of Julian Edelman's nine starts this season, and Brady finished with less than 23 fantasy points in only one of those nine games. New England had the sixth highest passing play percentage in the league, and we saw them slant heavily towards the pass last week against Kansas City (only seven rushing attempts by running backs). I'd expect the Patriots to once again play to their strengths against a Denver rush defense that let up a league-low 3.3 yards per attempt this season. It should also help Brady's cause that Broncos stud cornerback Chris Harris played with one arm the whole game against the Steelers last week.

With New England's offense in pass-only mode against the Chiefs, James White ($4,600) saw 72% of the running back snaps -- substantially higher than the 35%-40% he had been playing recently. It didn't result in much production (6.4 fantasy points), but on the chance White sees similar field time against Denver, I'll have him in about 30% of my lineups. For what it's worth, the Broncos gave up the eighth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Pricing is tight enough that fitting both Jonathan Stewart and David Johnson into a lineup is difficult, so White won't exactly be a contrarian play, but he will certainly check in lower owned than the NFC backs and probably C.J. Anderson as well. Steven Jackson ($3,000) played on 29% of the snaps and had six carries for 16 yards last week, putting him under 2.8 yards per carry in all three of his appearances as a Patriot. I suppose Jackson has touchdown upside, but I'm not sure I can bring myself to roster him. Even if Peyton Manning self destructs and New England gets out to a big lead, I don't expect expect Bill Belichick to start running Jackson into a brick wall -- especially if Brady has the short passing game humming. Brandon Bolden ($2,600) will be under 2% owned, but justifiably so after seeing only 7% of the backfield snaps last week.

Julian Edelman ($7,500) is the highest-priced wide receiver on the slate and very likely to be the highest-owned after returning from a two-month layoff to drop 24.1 fantasy points on the Chiefs. Nothing we've seen all season suggests Edelman won't once again act as Brady's primary chain mover on short and intermediate routes, which puts the chances he finishes with less than 15 fantasy points extremely low (it happened once in the eight games Edelman finished this year). Brandon LaFell ($3,300) is awful, but he profiles as a worthy contrarian play this week. He was out there on 90% of the snaps vs. Kansas City and was targeted a respectable five times. Denver is going to have to focus their coverage on Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, which should leave LaFell in soft spots where Brady can find him. Keshawn Martin ($2,600) hooked up with Brady for a 42 yard gain last week, but was in on only 17% of the wide receiver snaps. I won't argue against using him (or anyone really) to construct a unique roster, but I'd rather take my chances with someone like LaFell, who will at least be on the field. Danny Amendola ($4,400) will see a lot of Harris' coverage in the slot. If Harris' shoulder injury hampers him as much as it did last week, Amendola at least stands a chance. But like LaFell, he's an uninspiring contrarian option whose best selling point is that he'll be on the field.

Rob Gronkowski ($7,600) is the biggest fantasy difference maker on the slate and is priced accordingly at $100 more than Edelman. When New England and Denver met in Week 12, Gronk caught six passes for 88 yards and a touchdown. Dating back to 2011, he has 40 catches for 516 yards and six touchdowns in six games against the Broncos. With Greg Olsen only $500 less, there's no question I'll have more exposure to Gronkowski and his GPP-winning ceiling than Olsen (who I still like quite a bit) this week.

The Patriots Defense ($3,100) provides a bit of much needed cap relief and has upside in this matchup against Peyton Manning. Manning wasn't terrible last week against the Steelers, but he didn't do anything to prove the guy who threw 17 interceptions through the season's first nine games isn't still lurking behind that orange #18 jersey.

Broncos

Speaking of Peyton Manning ($5,500), there are contrarian plays, and then there are just bad plays. Manning -- who completed only 56.8% of his passes against a notoriously leaky Pittsburgh pass defense last week -- qualifies as the latter. If he couldn't turn in a serviceable day at home against the Steelers, I have no faith he can do so against a Patriots team that should be able to pressure him (New England's 2.9 sacks per game trailed only Denver's 3.2 for the league lead). I also can't imagine Gary Kubiak's game plan is to beat New England through the air. 35+ pass attempts for Manning would probably mean Kubiak's (and Broncos fans) worst nightmare has come true.

Even in a down game for Manning, both Demaryius Thomas ($7,000) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6,300) were able to reach low double digit fantasy points against the Steelers. Neither receiver faces a particularly exploitable cornerback matchup, but they both qualify as high-floor options who have demonstrated 30 point ceilings. There aren't many players you can say that about on this week's slate, making both receivers viable options. It's worth noting when these teams met in Week 12 (with Brock Osweiler at quarterback) Thomas was limited to one catch for 36 yards, while Sanders posted a 6-113-0 line. Pro Football Focus grades New England's Leonard Johnson as the worst cornerback on this week's slate, but there's no mismatch we can exploit as a result. Jordan Norwood ($2,100) and Andre Caldwell ($2,000) split Denver's slot snaps pretty evenly, effectively cancelling each other out.

C.J. Anderson's ($4,400) price is up $700 from last week after he turned 17 touches into 16.3 fantasy points against a tough Steelers run defense. Anderson has run for less than 4.8 yards per carry in a game just once since Week 8, and has five games with over six yards per carry over that span. It's also encouraging his best game of the season came against New England in Week 12 (15-113-2 plus another 4-40 receiving). While Anderson is the far superior option to Ronnie Hillman ($3,900), the Broncos 50-50 backfield timeshare is here to stay, which caps the upside of both backs against New England's top 10 rush defense (DVOA). Ultimately, it will be difficult to avoid rostering Anderson due to his price and recent production, but Hillman makes for an interesting contrarian play as the cheapest source of 15 touches on the slate. I also don't hate the idea of pairing both Denver running backs with the Broncos defense in a unique roster construction. We can't rule out Denver winning this game at home, and the only way that happens is if the Broncos keep the ball out of Brady's hands by controlling the clock with the run and playing great defense.

Playing Owen Daniels ($2,300) on a two-game slate when Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen are your other options is, um, not optimal. Daniels was on the field for 70% of the snaps last week -- making him the clear play over Vernon Davis ($2,200) and Virgil Green ($2,100) -- but it resulted in two catches for 10 yards against Pittsburgh. If you're really trying to talk yourself into Daniels, I guess you can make a case for New England struggling against tight ends in recent weeks. The Patriots allowed four tight end touchdowns in their last five games of the regular season to the combination of Zach Ertz, Delanie Walker, and Jordan Cameron -- and Travis Kelce probably would have had a touchdown against them last week if Alex Smith hadn't overthrown him in the end-zone.

The Broncos Defense ($3,300) is absolutely dominant and probably comes with a six point floor due to their league-leading sack rate. I just don't see how they can win you a GPP this week against a Patriots offense that has rolled in every game they were completely healthy. There's also a greater than zero chance Manning implodes and leaves them climbing an uphill battle against poor field position. I'll have some exposure to the Broncos, but like most people I'll be going heaviest on Carolina's defense in hopes they keep up their dominant play at home.

Check back on the blog Saturday for the NFC breakdown.

Follow @PhilTWR

Divisional Round GPP Breakdown: Sunday Games

If you missed my breakdown of the New England vs. Kansas City and Arizona vs. Green Bay games (along with some notes on how we can learn from week's Millionaire Maker results when constructing lineups this week), click here. Otherwise, go ahead and dig right in to the Sunday games.

Seahawks

I'm having a tough time deciding whether Seattle @ Carolina ends in a 13-10 defensive slug-fest, or a 30-27 shootout. Vegas landed in the middle, setting the over/under at 44 points, meaning neither team has an implied total above the 24 point mark I usually prefer to target. The line is fair -- Carolina allowed only 17 points per game at home (third-lowest in the league), with both of their late season shootouts coming on the road at the Saints and Giants respectively. I'd like Russell Wilson ($6,800) and the Seahawks offense much more if this game were being played in Seattle, but I do think Wilson warrants a spot on about 15% of your tournament rosters. He'll be lower-owned than Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, and Tom Brady, yet his demonstrated ceiling of 38 fantasy points is right there with each of them. Wilson has averaged 36.6 rushing yards per game in three meetings with Carolina over the last two years, which is nearly the equivalent of an extra passing touchdown per game on DraftKings. Prior to last week's impossible weather game at Minnesota, Wilson had scored at least 21 fantasy points in seven straight contests.

Barring any further surprises, Marshawn Lynch ($6,400) will be active for the first time since Week 10. With the running back position razor thin behind David Johnson, it's tempting to pencil Lynch into lineups, but I'm keeping my expectations in check. Carolina ranks 6th in rush defense DVOA, we have no idea what type of workload Lynch is ready for after such a long layoff, and with Christine Michael ($5,500) running well the last few weeks, it's entirely possible we see the two form some sort of rotation. Lynch is certainly viable on this slate due to his touchdown upside, but if he doesn't score, I'd bet you're looking at about seven fantasy points. I'd rather punt RB2 with someone like Fitzgerald Toussaint or one of the Denver backs, and spend the extra money at wide receiver (or even tight end). If you're looking for a strong case to play Lynch, check out what Dan Hindery wrote in this week's Roundtable.

The Doug Baldwin ($6,800) regression refuses to ever come. This season's cumulative WR7 is once again a strong play despite the tough matchup with Carolina's elite secondary. Baldwin runs 83% of his routes from the slot (per Pro Football Focus), which means he should avoid Josh Norman on the majority of his routes (Norman ventured into the slot on only 2% of his snaps this season). After catching a red zone touchdown last week, Baldwin now has five red zone scores in his last five games on the strength of an NFL leading 61% red zone target market share over that span. Tyler Lockett ($4,400) figures to see the most of Norman's coverage, which limits his appeal (even as a contrarian stacking option in the return game when paired with Seattle's defense). Jermaine Kearse ($3,200) is an interesting low-owned flyer for the second straight week. Before throwing up a dud in last week's ice bowl, Kearse had scored double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six games. Of the three Seattle receivers, he has by far the best one-on-one matchup with Carolina cornerback Robert McClain.

With Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce, Heath Miller (and even Richard Rodgers) on the slate, there is no reason to roster Cooper Helfet ($2,500) or Chase Coffman ($2,800). 

It feels strange to say the Seahawks Defense ($4,100) isn't a top play, but considering their price and bad spot (on the road against a 15-1 team who employs the best quarterback in the NFL this season), there are better options.

Panthers

If I were making 10 GPP lineups this week, Carson Palmer would be on four of them and Cam Newton ($7,500) would be on three. Your number one goal when constructing rosters this week is to assemble a team that can score the most raw points (as opposed to targeting the best point per dollar values at each position). Very simply, Newton has demonstrated the ability to score more points than any other quarterback, and there's a decent chance you'll need him to run deep in tournaments, despite the bad on-paper matchup. It's worth noting Newton's fantasy points per game average increased by about 16% in home games this season.

Jonathan Stewart ($5,800) will be active for the first time since Week 14, and we should see his ownership depressed a bit due to the injury layoff, bad matchup, and steep price tag (he's only $200 less than David Johnson). While Seattle does rank third in rush defense DVOA, Stewart has had their number. He posted a 20-78-2 line on the Seahawaks in their Week 6 meeting, and he reached 70 yards on only 13 carries in Carolina's blowout loss to Seattle in last year's playoffs. There's always the chance Stewart gets poached by Cam Newton at the goal line, but the narrative he doesn't have touchdown upside is a fallacy. From Week 6 (after he came back healthy from the Panthers bye week) through 14 (his last game played before getting injured), Stewart led the league in carries and touchdowns from inside the opponent's five yard line. As one of the few backs on this slate guaranteed at least 15 touches, Stewart is absolutely in play.

With Rob Gronkowski's murky injury situation, Greg Olsen ($6,900) is easily the safest tight end on the slate. I'm expecting him to be one of the three highest-owned players this week, but like Jordan Reed last week, this doesn't look like the spot to fade him. Seattle was exposed by tight ends on several occasions this season. They ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight ends and allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position. When these teams met in Week 6, Olsen exploited the matchup to the tune of seven catches, 131 receiving yards and a touchdown.

The rest of Carolina's receivers will either hold the key to a GPP win or sink your lineup completely. If you believe Cam Newton is going to look every bit like the league MVP in a tough matchup, it makes sense to pair him with flyers like Corey Brown ($3,500), or Jerricho Cotchery ($3,000) who will go under 5% owned. Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,000) found himself on several winning GPP lineups late in the season thanks to his deep ball skills. I don't like his chances of catching a bomb against a Seattle secondary that allowed the fourth-fewest pass plays of 20+ yards. If I had to choose a Panthers wide receiver to roster it would be either Cotchery (who has a plus matchup in the slot with Seattle cornerback Deshawn Shead), or Devin Funchess ($3,400). Funchess isn't guaranteed playing time, but he's proven himself as a playmaker in just about every opportunity he's gotten this season, and Carolina Head Coach Ron Rivera recently referred to his as the team's X-Factor for the playoffs.

Steelers @ Broncos Speed Round

It doesn't look like I have enough time left to give you my full thoughts on this game, and get it out in time to do you any good, so we're going lightning round on the final game of the weekend...

• Ben Roethlisberger ($7,000) - The latest reports on Roethlisberger stated he was a full participant in Friday's practice and his arm strength looked the same as usual. The matchup is ugly, Roethlisberger's road splits are not promising, and he'll be missing his best weapon, but that report is encouraging enough for me to get at least one Steelers stack into the portfolio. The rest of the field will be scared to death to use Roethlisberger and there's a chance he can be set-up with numerous short fields if Peyton Manning looks anything like he did early in the season.
• Fitzgerald Toussaint ($4,200) - The narrative states that with Antonio Brown out and Roethlisberger's arm at less than full strength, Toussaint should clean up in the short passing game. I buy it -- Toussaint was targeted eight times last week and generated 10 of his 15.8 fantasy points via the receiving game. Denver allowed the eighth-most receptions to opposing running backs during the regular season.
• Jordan Todman ($3,800) - I've always liked Todman as a runner and he showed why last week with 65 yards on 11 carries against a tough run defense. But with Denver now favored by 7.5, the implied game script heavily favors Toussaint who played 66% of Pittsburgh's running back snaps last week. The only spot I'll have Todman is in a contrarian lineup that features both Pittsburgh backs, where I'm looking for the low priced combination to net me about 25 combined fantasy points.
• Martavis Bryant ($6,000) - Bryant can score from anywhere on the field regardless of who he's lined up against. He belongs in your tournament lineups every week, and this game is no different. The Steelers have been trying to get the ball in Bryant's hands on short slants (and even rushes) in recent weeks, so he might not be ruined if Roethlisberger can't throw downfield. He'll also likely see an uptick in targets with Brown sidelined.
• Markus Wheaton ($4,300) - Wheaton will take on an expanded role with Brown out, but I'm convinced he's a terrible player and he'll have to deal with shutdown corner Chris Harris on the majority of his routes. If having zero exposure to Wheaton is the reason I don't win money this week, I'm fine with that.
• Heath Miller ($3,200) - Can Miller get you the 10-12 fantasy points you need for him to pay off his price tag -- especially with Brown sidelined? Of course. But the floor here is low and the ceiling not high enough for me to justify using him over Gronk, Olsen, Kelce, or my preferred tight end sleeper, Richard Rodgers.
• Steelers Defense ($3,600) - This is a super-sneaky contrarian play that I'll be looking to get into at least 30% of my lineups. Everyone will be using a defense from a big home favorite, which will leave the Steelers under-owned in a matchup with Peyton Manning. Manning has an awful playoff track record, and threw 17 interceptions in nine games before getting injured. Pittsburgh may very well have the best on paper matchup of any D/ST on the slate.
• Peyton Manning ($6,000) - I'm incredibly conflicted on Manning this week. I've already mentioned his suspect history in playoff games and how bad he's been this season. However, the weakness of Pittsburgh's defense is in their secondary, and Denver's receivers match-up with the Steelers corners so well it's hard not to like Manning at this price tag (and low ownership). Ultimately, I think Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are good enough to bring Manning along for the ride. I'll have 15%-20% exposure.
• C.J. Anderson ($3,700) - Anderson has averaged over six yards per carry in five out of his last six games. He's been the better runner than Ronnie Hillman over the second half of the season, but unfortunately Anderson is no lock to receive more carries than his platoon-mate. Considering Anderson's recent explosiveness and the implied game script, there's a case to be made for him as the RB2 on this slate behind David Johnson.
• Ronnie Hillman ($4,100) - I like Hillman a lot less than Anderson, but since the Broncos insist on trotting him out there for 15 touches per game, I'll be forced to split my Anderson and Hillman shares down the middle. You should too. It can easily be Hillman who benefits most if the Broncos get out to an early lead and take the air out of the ball late in the game.
• Demaryius Thomas ($7,000) - Thomas is a nightmare for the Pittsburgh secondary, as evidenced by his two-touchdown performance against the Steelers in Week 15. He averaged 93.3 receiving yards per game in his 10 games with Manning this season, compared to 61.8 in the six games Manning missed. Given the matchup and Antonio Brown's absence, Thomas' ceiling on this slate is WR1.
• Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800) - Sanders will be matched up against Antwon Blake, PFFs lowest graded cornerback on the slate. When Sanders last faced his old team in Week 15, he exploited the matchup to the tune of a season-high 39.5 fantasy points. The monster performance counted as Sanders' sixth 20+ point fantasy game this season, proving his ceiling is plenty high to help you land in a GPP winner's circle. I'll have lots of lineups that feature both Thomas and Sanders.
• Owen Daniels ($2,500)/Vernon Davis ($2,900) - Don't do this to your rosters.
• Broncos Defense ($3,900) - Denver is my favorite D/ST play of the week. Pittsburgh is not the same team on the road (21.8 points per game away vs. 30.6 at home). They have to face one of the best defenses in the league without two of their best weapons, and their quarterback may not be able to throw past the line of scrimmage. Denver has sacked enemy quarterbacks on 8.32% of their plays this season, the highest rate in the league. If Roethlisberger gets blown up and lands on his shoulder, there's a strong possibility we'll see Landry Jones for extended action. That is a recipe for a deep tournament run.

Follow @PhilTWR

Cost Efficiency Breakdown, Divisional Playoffs

Don't let the slate start up without checking in on the Divisional Round Cost Efficiency Breakdown. Find the hidden gems and otherwise shrewd plays, salary-wise, for the NFL weekend.

Here's a sample breakdown:

It’s hard to go wrong choosing between Michael Floyd and John Brown, two elite big-play threats on the league’s most dynamic offense. But the week’s largest Vegas scoring projection deserves representation in your lineup, and luckily for us, both come very cheaply (either would need 15 points to cash). Floyd, the safer and preferred cash game target, closed the season with an absolute flourish, topping 100 yards five times from Weeks 10-16 and building a moderately solid volume outlook (eight targets per game over that span), as well. Brown hasn’t been breaking open downfield much, but he’s been an elite red zone producer of late, finding the end zone in each of the Cardinals’ last three meaningful games. He deserves real GPP consideration, but doesn’t look cash-ready.

Follow @JustinHoweFF

Cost Efficiency on Wild Card Weekend

Don't let your contests kick off before you've hit the Wild Card Cost Efficiency Breakdown. It'll guide you through the weekend's true value plays, like this guy:

Kansas City has all but sworn off throwing the ball in the red zone (just seven attempts over the past four weeks). That means their backs, specifically short-yardage option Spencer Ware, are always firmly in play for GPPs. Ware is a bit overpriced for his floor – he does split touches with a more talented Charcandrick West – but a game favoring Kansas City would suggest plenty of rushes and red zone trips to go around. If he can find the end zone twice against Houston, Ware would only need 25-35 scrimmage yards to reach GPP value. And he finished the season with a TD flourish, scoring six times over his final eight games.

Get that and every other cost-based value at the link above, and stick around for the rest of our comprehensive weekly DraftKings coverage!

Follow @JustinHoweFF

Wildcard Weekend Contrarian Plays

The weekly column I wrote for Footballguys subscribers this season focused on why projecting ownership percentage in large field GPPs is important, which players to target based on low ownership, and which highly owned players shouldn’t be faded despite their popularity.

For playoff contests, I felt the need to do things a bit differently. The concept of ownership percentage takes on added importance when constructing lineups on a four game slate. With the player pool so thin, even casual entrants can easily construct a roster made up of the most reliable and/or highest upside players. Whereas on a 16 game slate these “chalk plays” (think Antonio Brown this week) might be around 30% owned, on a short slate we can expect them to appear on 50%-70% of rosters (or more).

More so than in a normal GPP, missing out on just one highly-owned player who has a big day will dig your team a hole too deep to climb out of. And even if you have that player in your lineup, they’ll be lighting it up for nearly every other team in the tournament. So while getting a 40 point game from Antonio Brown this week is great, it will only keep you afloat -- not get you to the top of the standings. If you want to have any shot at a deep run in tournaments this week, you’ll need to surround your core of chalk plays with at least two under-the-radar players (think 20% owned or less on such a short slate) and probably more depending on the size of the field.

If you’re familiar with GPP game theory, none of this is earth shattering. But since the importance of hitting on low-owned players is amplified in playoff contests, that’s where I want to place my focus over the next few weeks. Here is one high variance option from each team that can help separate your rosters from the pack:

Packers @ Redskins

James Jones - $4,100

When I began researching the slate, Jones jumped out to me as a glaring value. Unfortunately, after jumping on some Roundtable discussions with the other Footballguys (namely John Lee) it became apparent I wasn’t alone, which leaves me guessing Jones will be a more popular play than I first anticipated. That being said, I’m still going out of my way to roster him. Jones has quietly become Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver over the last four weeks (not coincidentally since Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties). He leads Green Bay in target market share (27.97%), red zone targets (six), receiving yards (279), and yards per reception (14.7) in that span. Football Outsiders ranks Washington 30th against WR2s in their pass defense DVOA metric, and Jones will run the majority of his routes against undrafted free agent rookie Quentin Dunbar, who Pro Football Focus grades as the third-worst cornerback on the slate. Washington has been burned for pass plays of 20+ yards 58 times this season (sixth-most in the league), while Jones’ 18 receptions of 20+ yards rank him 11th among pass catchers.

Pierre Garcon - $4,200

I’m planning on having low exposure to all Washington players, so coming up with one to write about was a struggle. My gut tells me Kirk Cousins will come crashing down to earth against a strong Green Bay defense and Aaron Rodgers will right the ship (to a degree), leading Green Bay to an easy win in Washington. Jordan Reed will get a lot of traffic based on his recent usage and production (rightfully so), but if he’s 50% owned, going in a different direction at tight end is an easy way to differentiate from the field. Garcon is no great shakes in this matchup, but he’s second on the team in targets over the last four weeks and has caught a touchdown in each of the last three games (two of which came on six red zone targets). As of Thursday, Sam Shields (Green Bay’s best cornerback by a wide margin) was surprisingly still in the league’s concussion protocol after missing three consecutive games. If Shields is once again forced to sit, Garcon becomes far more interesting.

Seahawks @ Vikings

Jermaine Kearse - $3,300

Russell Wilson is likely to be right there with Ben Roethlisberger as most popular quarterback this weekend, but Kearse will check in behind both Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett in terms of ownership. Not only is Kearse the cheapest and most unique way to gain exposure to Wilson, he might be the best option outside of Baldwin. Kearse and Lockett’s target share and fantasy point totals are nearly identical over the last four games. Since Week 12, Kearse has failed to score double digit fantasy points only once, and on the season he’s the second-most frequently targeted Seahawks receiver in the red zone. There’s clear risk here as Kearse was held completely out of the box score in his last meeting with Minnesota, but the Vikings have made a habit of allowing big games to complementary wide receivers in recent weeks, and Kearse is coming in hot. Out of all the players listed in this article, I’ll have the heaviest exposure to Kearse and James Jones.

Kyle Rudolph - $3,500

I’m expecting Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and Travis Kelce to account for about 80% of the tight end ownership, which means you’d really be cutting the chalk with Rudolph. While Rudolph might not have a high ceiling (and definitely has a scary low floor), he does have touchdown potential which is all you can ask for at his price and projected ownership. The Vikings may not pass much in the red zone, but when they do Teddy Bridgewater looks to Rudolph first. Rudolph’s 41% red zone target market share ranks fifth-highest in the NFL (albeit on only 11 targets), and four out of his five touchdowns this season have come in home games. Seattle ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA vs. tight ends and have allowed eight touchdowns to the position (10th-most in the league), so the matchup is favorable. I’m also expecting Seattle to put up plenty of points in this game, which should force Bridgewater to pass more frequently than usual. Jerick McKinnon also makes sense as a low exposure dart throw for Minnesota on the chance Adrian Peterson re-injures his back or ankle early in the game.

Chiefs @ Texans

Albert Wilson - $3,500

The case for Wilson is admittedly a little thin, but outside of Jeremy Maclin (who will be high-owned in a terrible matchup) and Travis Kelce (who isn’t a chalk play, but won’t be low-owned either), it’s tough to find a player on the Chiefs worth rostering. Wilson has at least been involved in Kansas City’s game plan recently. His target share over the last four weeks is above 20%, which has worked out to between four and six looks per game. We also know he’ll be on the field, as his snap count hasn’t dipped below 70% in any of the past four games. Wilson has played well this season (relative to the Chiefs run-first offense), and he flashed the 18 point ceiling we’re looking for at his price tag in Week 14 against San Diego. His primary one-one-one matchup with Texans cornerback Kevin Johnson is winnable -- according to Pro Football Focus, Johnson has allowed the second most fantasy points per route defended on this week’s slate. I expect Alex Smith to be forced to pass more than usual for the Chiefs to win on the road, which would lead to extra opportunity for all of Kansas City’s pass catchers.

Jaelen Strong - $3,000

The intriguing rookie out of Arizona State has begun to show up in box scores, with double-digit fantasy point performances in two of his last three games. The bump in production can be attributed to increased playing time due to recent injuries to Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington. Shorts should make it back this week, but Washington was still limited to side work at Thursday’s practice after suffering a hip injury in Week 17. If Washington doesn’t play, Strong will work opposite DeAndre Hopkins on the perimeter where the Chiefs have been burned by wide receivers for the majority of the season. Four game slates rarely require entrants to drop down to minimum salary plays when constructing lineups, which will keep Strong hidden from the masses. His upside is mostly theoretical at this point, but Strong goes 6’2’’, 217 lbs, showed off elite athleticism at the scouting combine, and has a multi-touchdown NFL game to his credit despite playing limited reps all season. If Washington suits up, it’s probably best to forget Strong. Alfred Blue is the least expensive source of 15-20 touches on the slate and makes sense as another against the grain option from the Texans, if you trust their defense will dominate Kansas City at home.

Steelers @ Bengals

Marvin Jones - $3,700

Those looking to invest in Bengals pass catchers will be shooting for A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, which should leave Jones a forgotten man. Since A.J. McCarron took over as the Bengals starter, Jones and Green have each seen an identical 26 targets. Jones’ target share will likely dip a bit with Eifert’s return to the lineup, but he’ll still enjoy favorable coverage as the Steelers focus on stopping Green (who has a history of destroying them). Something similar to the 6-61-0 line Jones posted when the Bengals and Steelers met in Week 14 is well within his range of outcomes, and the upside is there for more against a Pittsburgh team that led the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers.

Martavis Bryant - $5,600

I’ll be very interested to see Bryant’s ownership in tournaments this weekend. The limited number of available wide receiver options guarantees he won’t be super low-owned, but how many entrants will be willing to take the risk on a player with a combined two receptions and four yards over his last two games? Here’s hoping recency bias is a factor because I plan on having about 35% exposure to Bryant. A high total point ceiling is all you should be concerned with when constructing lineups this week (as opposed to traditional point per dollar value at each roster spot). Bryant has a proven ceiling as high as any receiver’s on this slate, and that includes Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. I loved hearing Bryant get called out by Ben Roethlisberger this week and after Bryant accepted his quarterback’s challenge, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t motivated to bounceback. One thing’s for certain -- Bryant has the physical tools to dominate Cincinnati cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. Heath Miller’s two best fantasy games both came against the Bengals this season, if you’re looking for a true contrarian play from the Steelers.

Follow @PhilTWR

Week 17 Cost Efficiency Breakdown

As always, I took a long look at Week 17 from a cost-efficiency standpoint - who actually produces the most value for your DFS dollar? You'll find the full breakdown here, but take a peek at one of the week's top value plays:

As always, there’s little downside and monstrous upside in Julio Jones, who draws the Saints for Week 17. New Orleans has gotten better cornerback play of late, with youngster Devin Breaux shining in coverage, but we still have to consider Jones the favorite there. Needing 25.5 to cash, Jones is a bit of a stretch in a meaningless game against a talented young cornerback. But his talent level and deep-seeded involvement in his offense ensure that matchup is never a real concern. After all, he notched 140% of that 25.5 cash marker against Josh Norman and the suffocating Panthers last week, and 110% of it against the Vontae Davis-led Colts in Week 11.

Follow @JustinHoweFF

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 17

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of this week's player analysis:

Aaron Rodgers - $6,800 vs. MIN (5% Owned or Less)

Trusting the Packers offense has gotten me in plenty of trouble this year, but I can’t resist rostering Rodgers at $1,800 less than his Week 1 price. Despite his struggles this year, Rodgers still ranks as the cumulative QB8 and Green Bay is in a great bounceback spot after getting slaughtered on the road in Arizona last week. The stench of that ugly loss will keep most entrants off Rodgers, but he’s playing at home (where his fantasy points per game have increased by 25% over the last two seasons), the Packers are favored to win, and their implied team total of 25 points is enough to allow for a big game. Minnesota’s pass defense is solid, but 76% of the touchdowns they’ve allowed this season have come via the pass (third-highest in the league).

Week 16 Red Zone Receiving Outlook

Just like last week, let's take a run through the best red zone receiving outlooks Week 16 has to offer, according to my projection model. The goal, as always, is to identify the guys with the best chances of finding the end zone today and tomorrow. (Check last week's entry at the link for an explanation of the factors that spit out these expectations.)

WIDE RECEIVER

	Gm	TmRZAt	RZTg	RZTD	RZTDPj
G. Tate	4	24	9	5	1.08
D. Baldwin	4	22	11	6	1.00
J. Maclin	4	9	5	3	0.95
E. Decker	4	24	11	3	0.88
B. Marshall	4	24	6	3	0.80
A. Brown	4	22	7	3	0.75
C. Johnson	4	24	6	3	0.72
A. Robinson	4	24	5	3	0.67
S. Watkins	4	12	4	2	0.56
T.Y. Hilton	4	23	4	2	0.55
D. Thomas	4	21	7	3	0.51
M. Wheaton	4	22	7	2	0.50

Some Observations

• Golden Tate is atop this list on the back of some good red zone usage, but also an unusually high success rate. The league average for red zone targets that become TDs in just a hair over 20%, and Tate has converted 56% over the last four weeks. Historically speaking, that's not really Tate's strength. There's a lot to like about Tate, but these results can skew his GPP appeal. He's more of a cash option than one from whom we can confidently expect a wild, multi-TD game.
• This chart assumes Doug Baldwin will suit up and play a full complement of snaps. If that doesn't happen, expect Tyler Lockett, who's just off this list at 0.41 TDs, to see an uptick. He's already operating in an offense that much prefers to throw near the goal line; if he's the No. 1 wideout for the day, he's chalk you need to follow at just $4,500.
• I like Michael Floyd as a GPP idea, but I can't help but note that he hasn't been a red zone presence at all over the last month. That's why I prefer John Brown, who's seen more looks from inside the 20 over that span than Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald combined.
• It's odd that Dorial Green-Beckham has yet to see a red zone target during his four-game mini-breakout. But the imposing touchdown maker has to break out at some point. If he can paid a TD with 4-5 basic receptions, he'll hold tournament value.

TIGHT END

	Gm	TmRZAt	RZTg	RZTD	RZTDPj
R. Gronkowski	4	9	3	2	0.69
D. Walker	4	11	4	2	0.64
J. Thomas	4	35	7	3	0.61
G. Barnidge	4	31	8	3	0.57
B. Watson	4	30	11	2	0.51
W. Tye	4	25	4	2	0.42

Some Observations

• Yes, you want Rob Gronkowski.
• Gary Barnidge has an awful matchup with a Kansas City defense that can erase a TE, but he's a legitimate touchdown machine who should benefit from game flow. And Johnny Manziel has been throwing like a maniac in the red zone.
• Two red zone giants in theory, Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph, have disappointed mightily in the TD column of late. But I like Rudolph's outlook against a Giants defense that struggles with tight ends, and Kelce is the kind of gifted option that can be squeezed into just about any GPP.

Follow @JustinHoweFF

Week 16 Cost Efficiency Breakdown

Don't miss the Week 16 Cost Efficiency Breakdown, overflowing with DFS productivity nuggets like this one:

Doug Baldwin is still on the outer edges of value, but probably not while dinged up with a pesky hamstring ailment. He may even miss the game entirely. In any case, teammate Tyler Lockett is the preferred option by a mile. He costs $2,200 less despite likely similar usage – his respectable 19.8% target share over the last four games is likely to grow with Baldwin limited or out. Besides, Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson is adept at funneling the ball to secondary targets.

Follow @JustinHoweFF

Short-Yardage and Touchdown Breakdown, Week 16

Since we crave touchdowns to swing our DFS tournaments, let's take a look through the top short-yardage (inside the 10-yard line) rushing projections for Week 16, based on the projection model I discussed last week:

	Gm	TmSYRu	OpSYRu	SYRu	SYTD	SYTDPj
J. Bell	4	6	22	4	2	1.03
D. Johnson	3	4	9	3	2	0.85
D. Williams	4	11	2	9	4	0.67
M. Forte	4	8	11	6	2	0.58
T. Gurley	4	6	7	5	2	0.53
S. Ware	2	4	8	2	1	0.50
J. Hill	4	18	3	13	3	0.50
T. Hightower	2	7	13	5	1	0.49
A. Peterson	4	5	4	3	2	0.46
I. Crowell	4	8	5	8	2	0.43
A. Blue	4	2	5	2	1	0.40

Some Observations

• DeAngelo Williams looks to me like the easiest and safest back on the board, and the bulk of that confidence comes from his goal line capabilities. No RB has taken more short-yardage rushes over their last four representative games. And as a 10-point favorite, Williams is most likely looking at a game script that blows squarely his way. He'll be involved through all four quarters, and on all levels of the field.
• Joique Bell may be back to relevance; he's the clear short-yardage preference in Detroit, and the Week 16 matchup is just golden. Over the last month, the 49ers have faced more short-yardage runs than any other team by a mile; opponents just can't help stumbling into the red zone. Bell isn't a strong bet for yardage, but his multi-touchdown upside makes him a deep GPP option.
• Charcandrick West is the trendy Week 16 play, but Spencer West looks like a great TD bet if his snaps aren't limited by injury. He's been explosive up and down the field and successful near the goal line; there's real two-TD upside in a run-based offense looking at a very positive script outlook.
• Some of the week's trendiest picks lack the strong goal line usage we crave. David Johnson has yet to see a rush from inside the 10 through his three starts. Neither of the Patriots' co-hammer backs (Brandon Bolden and Joey Iosefa) took a goal line carry last week, and Steven Jackson has been added to the mix, so have fun diagnosing that. And without Marshawn Lynch, Seattle has eschewed running the ball near the end zone, so we don't know how to valuate its RB options either. But all of that uncertainty makes me appreciate James White all the more - he's one of the few high-usage passing down backs who's also involved in the red zone ground game.

Follow @JustinHoweFF

DraftKings Value Plays for Week 16

Looking to maximize value for your DraftKings lineup this weekend? The staff at Footballguys.com is willing to help! Check out the DraftKings Week 16 Value Plays for all the help that you need.

Here are a couple sample picks:

Will Grant - David Johnson is still a great play at RB for cash games, even though his salary continues to climb. He's taken over the primary RB duties in Arizona and they are playing strong with a shot at home field advantage in the playoffs. He's a great play at home this week against the Packers.

Chad Parsons - The Browns have allowed the fifth-most points to opposing wide receivers over the last three weeks. Jeremy Maclin is reasonably-priced outside the top-20 receivers and has nine or more targets each of the last four games. 

Chris Feery - Randle has found the end zone for two consecutive weeks and will see a healthy bump in targets with the absence of Odell Beckham Jr. If he takes advantage of the opportunity in front of him, he could be one of the steals of the week with his low salary.

Justin Howe - This is still way too cheap. (Ryan) Fitzpatrick has been excellent at feeding his elite wideouts, especially in the red zone, and he projects to solid attempt and scoring totals in a mini-shootout with the Patriots

Check out the full article here


Follow @FBGWILL

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 16

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of this week's player analysis:

Zach Miller - $4,000 @ TAM (5% Owned or Less)

With Alshon Jeffery listed as doubtful,and both Martellus Bennett and Marquess Wilson on injured reserve, Jay Cutler’s receiving options have all but dried up. It leaves Miller (who has recorded 19.5 and 11.7 fantasy points in his last two games respectively) a safe bet for six to eight targets against a Lovie Smith Tampa-2 scheme that historically leaves tight ends open to roam the seam between the outside linebackers and cornerbacks. For Miller to hit his target score in GPPs (16 points), he’ll likely need to score a touchdown. Chicago hasn’t been a frequent visitor to the red zone lately, but Tampa Bay has given up the eighth-most red zone scoring attempts per game this year and Miller has seen 33% of Chicago’s red zone targets over the last four weeks.

Christmas Eve DraftKings Sample Lineups for Tonight

Open your presents from Footballguys.com a little early with our Thursday Sample Lineups for Draftkings.com Cash Games (50/50 and Double Up).

Here's an appetizer to start out your lineups right:

QBS: Alex Smith and David Carr

RBS: Danny Woodhead and DeAngelo Williams

WRs: Jeremy Maclin, Doug Baldwin and Michael Floyd

TEs: Jordan Reed and Antonio Gates

Def: Titans and Steelers.

Don't miss out on a chance to put some extra cash in your stocking with DraftKings Christmas Eve contests.

Check out the other Christmas week DraftKings content that we have from Footballguys.com


Follow @FBGWILL

First Look at Week 16 Motivation

In the final two weeks of the season, figuring out which teams will be most motivated to win and which will consider resting players can be key to fantasy success. Here's an early look at what is at stake in each game on the Week 16 Slate:

San Diego at Oakland: Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs and just playing out the string. Oakland's ascending young team should be more motivated than the beat-up Chargers.

Washington at Philadelphia: This game should have a playoff atmosphere and both teams have everything to play for. Washington will clinch the NFC East with a win. Philadelphia needs to beat Washington and then the Giants in Week 17 to clinch the division.

New England at NY Jets: The Jets are fighting for their playoff lives and would face an uphill battle should they lose to the Patriots. The Patriots can clinch the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs with a win in either of their final two games.

Houston at Tennessee: Tennessee has long been eliminated and could end up with the first overall pick. Houston will be highly motivated however as a win would clinch the AFC South title. A loss and Houston would potentially face a win-or-go-home matchup with Jacksonville in Week 17.

Cleveland at Kansas City: Cleveland has nothing to play for but Mike Pettine is coaching for his job and Johnny Manziel may be playing for his as well. Kansas City badly needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the Jets and Steelers in the Wild Card race. The Chiefs also could steal the division away from the Broncos should Denver slip up once more and the Chiefs win out.

Indianapolis at Miami: Indianapolis needs to win out and get plenty of help to make the playoffs (Houston losses to Tennessee and Jacksonville). Miami has already been eliminated.

San Francisco at Detroit: Both teams are playing for pride at this point.

Dallas at Buffalo: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention and motivation could be hard to muster.

Chicago at Tampa Bay: Neither team has anything to play for.

Carolina at Atlanta: Carolina still needs one more win (or an Arizona loss) to clinch the top seed in the NFC. A win at Atlanta would allow the Panthers to rest their stars in Week 17. Atlanta maintains very slim playoff hopes. In addition to winning out, the Falcons would need a number of other games to go their way (including a Rams upset of the Seahawks and a Giants upset of the Vikings).

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The Steelers are well-positioned to make the playoffs with only trips to Baltimore and Cleveland standing between them and a top-five seed in the AFC. Baltimore would love nothing more than to play spoiler against their hated rival and should be up for this game (at least to start).

Jacksonville at New Orleans: The Saints are eliminated and Jacksonville is hanging on by a thread. A win by either Houston or Indianapolis in the early games would officially eliminate the Jaguars from the AFC South race.

Saint Louis at Seattle: The Seahawks will be motivated to keep winning to stay ahead of the Vikings for the 5th seed in the NFC. A trip to take on the NFC East champ is much more appealing than a likely trip to Lambeau to face the Packers in the first round. Saint Louis is eliminated from contention.

Green Bay at Arizona: Arizona needs to beat either Green Bay or Seattle in the final two weeks to to lock up a first round bye. A win would allow Arizona to rest players in Week 17. The NFC North will likely come down to the Week 17 matchup between the Vikings and Packers regardless of the outcome of this game (assuming Minnesota handles the Giants). However, Green Bay could keep their hopes of a bye alive with an upset in Week 16. If Green Bay falls behind by multiple scores, it's possible they'd rest some injured players in the second half to prepare for the big Week 17 matchup.

New York Giants at Minnesota: The Giants may be eliminated before kickoff if Washington wins. Or they could be very much alive in the NFC East race should Philadelphia win. For Minnesota, this matchup could be almost meaningless should the afternoon games go as expected. The Vikings should clinch a playoff spot before kickoff. Regardless, they should be motivated with the game at home and the possibility of favorable seeding slightly increased with a win.

Cincinnati at Denver: Another game that should have a playoff atmosphere, both teams will have a lot at stake. Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North and a first-round bye with a victory. Denver would put itself in the driver's seat for a first round bye with the win. The Broncos still have work to do just to make the playoffs and have a lot at stake in the final two weeks.