Sunday, December 27, 2015

Week 16 Red Zone Receiving Outlook

Just like last week, let's take a run through the best red zone receiving outlooks Week 16 has to offer, according to my projection model. The goal, as always, is to identify the guys with the best chances of finding the end zone today and tomorrow. (Check last week's entry at the link for an explanation of the factors that spit out these expectations.)

WIDE RECEIVER

Gm TmRZAt RZTg RZTD RZTDPj
G. Tate 4 24 9 5 1.08
D. Baldwin 4 22 11 6 1.00
J. Maclin 4 9 5 3 0.95
E. Decker 4 24 11 3 0.88
B. Marshall 4 24 6 3 0.80
A. Brown 4 22 7 3 0.75
C. Johnson 4 24 6 3 0.72
A. Robinson 4 24 5 3 0.67
S. Watkins 4 12 4 2 0.56
T.Y. Hilton 4 23 4 2 0.55
D. Thomas 4 21 7 3 0.51
M. Wheaton 4 22 7 2 0.50

Some Observations

  • Golden Tate is atop this list on the back of some good red zone usage, but also an unusually high success rate. The league average for red zone targets that become TDs in just a hair over 20%, and Tate has converted 56% over the last four weeks. Historically speaking, that's not really Tate's strength. There's a lot to like about Tate, but these results can skew his GPP appeal. He's more of a cash option than one from whom we can confidently expect a wild, multi-TD game.
  • This chart assumes Doug Baldwin will suit up and play a full complement of snaps. If that doesn't happen, expect Tyler Lockett, who's just off this list at 0.41 TDs, to see an uptick. He's already operating in an offense that much prefers to throw near the goal line; if he's the No. 1 wideout for the day, he's chalk you need to follow at just $4,500.
  • I like Michael Floyd as a GPP idea, but I can't help but note that he hasn't been a red zone presence at all over the last month. That's why I prefer John Brown, who's seen more looks from inside the 20 over that span than Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald combined.
  • It's odd that Dorial Green-Beckham has yet to see a red zone target during his four-game mini-breakout. But the imposing touchdown maker has to break out at some point. If he can paid a TD with 4-5 basic receptions, he'll hold tournament value.

TIGHT END

Gm TmRZAt RZTg RZTD RZTDPj
R. Gronkowski 4 9 3 2 0.69
D. Walker 4 11 4 2 0.64
J. Thomas 4 35 7 3 0.61
G. Barnidge 4 31 8 3 0.57
B. Watson 4 30 11 2 0.51
W. Tye 4 25 4 2 0.42

Some Observations
  • Yes, you want Rob Gronkowski.
  • Gary Barnidge has an awful matchup with a Kansas City defense that can erase a TE, but he's a legitimate touchdown machine who should benefit from game flow. And Johnny Manziel has been throwing like a maniac in the red zone.
  • Two red zone giants in theory, Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph, have disappointed mightily in the TD column of late. But I like Rudolph's outlook against a Giants defense that struggles with tight ends, and Kelce is the kind of gifted option that can be squeezed into just about any GPP.

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