Saturday, December 5, 2015

Footballguys RoundTable on DraftKings Sunday Games Week 13

The staff at got together this week to talk about the Sunday NFL games on Here are some of the topics that they discussed and a couple snips of the conversation.

We've reached the part of the season where Divisional rematches are occurring? Do you have concerns using players against familiar divisional foes (especially those that they've already seen earlier this season)?
In your opinion, are certain positions more impacted (positively or negatively) in rematches than others?
John Lee: I will be honest here and say that I have never done an exhaustive analysis of fantasy scoring with divisional rematches; however, my good friend and FantasyLabs co-founder, Jonathan Bales, has done this type of study, and the data are compelling. A couple caveats before we dive in: 1) These data are not my own and belong to FantasyLabs, 2) These data are only for quarterback scoring; I do not know if the following trends are consistent across all skill positions, 3) These data are correlative, rather than causative, meaning that other interpretations are possible.
At just $3,400, is there any reason to fade Arizona's David Johnson if Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are out for this week at St. Louis?
Phil Alexander: The only merit to fading Johnson as Arizona's starter would be the leverage you gain on about 50% of the field in GPPs if he somehow has a bad (or even average) game. While fading the chalk in large field tournaments is typically my standard operating procedure, Johnson is just too great a value to pass up at only $3,400.
Tell us which game on the slate you feel most confident will go OVER the projected Vegas point total. Which player(s) in that game will contribute the most to their owners' lineups?
John Mamula: The game that I feel the most confident going over the projected Vegas total is Carolina-New Orleans, which has the highest game total of the week at 50 points. The Saints have surrendered a league leading 30 points per game at home this season. The Panthers offense should have no problem moving the ball on Sunday. The last time these teams met was during Week 3 when the Panthers won 27-22. (49 total points)
The Saints offense has been better at home both this season and in past years under Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Here are Brees split stats this season:
  • Home (5 games): 74.4% completion percentage, 343.6 passing yards per game, 14 touchdowns, four interceptions
  • Away (6 games): 65.0% completion percentage, 272.0 passing yards per game, 6 touchdowns, seven interceptions
Brees seems to be more comfortable playing at home in the Superdome. The Saints will have extra motivation this week as they will be trying to hand their division rival their first loss of the season. This game has the potential to turn into a shoot-out similar to the last two Saints home games (Week 8 Saints 52-49 Giants and Week 9 Titans 34-28 Saints), which comfortably both went over the Vegas total.


DeAndre Hopkins let many owners down last week. Part of what is hurting Hopkins is that Houston has only been trailing for 22.2% of their snaps and is running 10.8 fewer plays per game since they were crushed in Miami (hat tip Rich Hribar). Hopkins averaging 2.5 fewer catches and 34.7 fewer yards per game.
Considering the difference in game flow recently, is Hopkins ($8,800) still a strong cash game receiver this week at Buffalo?
Jeff Haseley: We have seen a small downward trend in Hopkins production lately that really showed against an exploitable Saints defense. I wouldn't write off Hopkins at all, because I don't see his lull as a performance-based ordeal. He'll bounce back soon enough, but I don't like his matchup this week at Buffalo. He's been labeled as a match-up proof receiver, but I'd rather spend big on other positions this week. I don't trust Brown against Vontae Davis, but I'd take Brown over Hopkins in a cash game. Like Phil said, Hopkins would be an excellent low owned target for tournament play. One receiver I will be targeting this week is Brandon Marshall against the struggling Giants secondary. He's coming off a two-touchdown game and looks to have put his ankle woes behind him.

There's plenty of great commentary and additional DraftKings insight on Sunday's games. Check out the rest of the discussion at

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