Tuesday, December 15, 2015

DraftKings Lineup Construction Week 14: Results

Last week on Saturday, I walked through a Cash Lineup Construction for DraftKings.com. I entered this lineup into an actual $1 Double-Up Cash game and was happy to see that it performed pretty well. Here are the results of that lineup

Last Minute Pivot

Here is the original lineup that I entered on Saturday:


But on Sunday morning. the Saints announced that Tim Hightower would receive the bulk of the carries and that C.J. Spiller would retain his 'change of pace' status. I wrote up a quick blog suggesting that people pivot from Spiller to Hightower since they were both just $3000.  That turned out to be a smart choice because Hightower had a significantly better statline:

Spiller - 3 Carries for 2 Yards, 3 Receptions for 7 Yards. 0 TDS.  3.9 Pts on DraftKings
Hightower - 28 Carries for 85 Yards, 1 Reception for 10 Yards. 1 TD. 16.5 Pts on DraftKings

With Hightower in the lineup for me, here is how it performed: 


This lineup finished with 164.38 points. Target Points for Cash games is 150 points (3X value of the 50,000 salary). The cash line for this particular Double-Up was 143.3 pts.

This lineup clearly had some over achieving players, but here's a little more detail into why it was successful.

Players that reached 3X value:

Wilson - 6300. Target 18.9 pts. Total 32.28 pts
Hightower - 3000. Target 9 pts. Total 16.5 pts
Beckham Jr - 9100. Target 27.3 pts. Total 38.6 pts
Marshall - 7600. Target 22.8 pts. Total 27.5 pts
49ers - 2100. Target 6.3 pts Total 8 pts.

Clearly Wilson was the big boost here. His 5 Passing TD performance this week pushed him up to 5x value. Wilson would have made a great GPP play as well this week. The pivot to Hightower was a big boost. If I'd have left Spiller in the lineup, I still would have beaten the 143.3 pay line, but watching the Sunday morning news and switching to Hightower really gave me a boost. The 49er defense wasn't anything special, but their super low price of 2100 made them still a good cash play against the Browns this week. Marshall and Beckham Jr. both had over 100 receiving yards this week and both reached the end zone.

Players that did not reach 3x value

Brown - 8900. Target 26.7 pts. Total 15.7 pts
Maclin - 5500. Target 16.5 pts. Total 12.6 pts
Draughn - 4800. Target 14.4 pts. Total 7.1 pts
ASJ - 2700. Target 8.1 pts. Total 6.1 pts

Brown was the biggest let down of this lineup, but part of that was due to the big lead that Pittsburgh built in the game against he Bengals and after Andy Dalton went down, he Steelers never looked back. Ben Roethlisberger didn't have a passing TD in the game and the Steelers still put 33 points on the board. The Kansas City - San Diego game turned into a snooze fest, and although Maclin had nine targets for the day, he only turned in six receptions for 68 yards. Draughn wasn't a sexy pick by any stretch, but he should have been able to reach his target 3x based on volume. The 49ers struggled the entire game against Cleveland this weekend, and Draughn was barely able to grind out a couple points. ASJ nearly reached value, turning his second 3 reception for 31 yard day. The game script indicated that he should have performed much better against a weak New Orleans defense, but the Saints jumped out early and held Tampa in check all day. Mike Evans finished with a nearly identical stat line (3 receptions, 39 yards) so I don't feel bad about this at all. Again, at 2700, ASJ didn't need much to come through.

Overall a solid Cash lineup. I don't regret any of the picks that I made. Games don't always follow the game script, but hopefully it works out where the players super cheap like ASJ or the 49er defense, or that the player still has a high enough floor to not be a total but like Antonio Brown.

Check back this Saturday for this week's DraftKings cash lineup.




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