Friday, December 11, 2015

DraftKings Week 14 Roundtable

This week's discussion focused on replacement running backs, budget quarterbacks, defense/special teams plays, and off-script games. It was a great session with the DraftKings staff and should give our readers plenty of insight heading into their Week 11 contests.

Some excerpts are below, and the full article is here.

Squeaky Wheel
We discussed the idea of playing Julio Jones this week despite his poor matchup due to his voicing his displeasure with the team's red zone game-planning.
Jeff Haseley: He might be a candidate to receive more red zone looks, but this isn't the best week to expect big things from Jones. In his last four games against Carolina, Jones has struggled to produce big numbers. Josh Norman's presence, especially recently, is a big reason for that. Norman hasn't shadowed many receivers this season, but he has focused his efforts on containing Jones in the past. There has been considerable hype from Panthers camp about Norman covering Jones. I'd venture a guess that Norman plays a lot of man coverage on Jones this week.

Jones vs. Carolina (Last Four Meetings)

2014
Week 17 - 4 recs, 58 yards
Week 11 - 6 recs, 59 yards

2013
No games vs. CAR (injury)

2012
Week 14 - 5 recs, 66 yards, 1 TD
Week 4 - 1 rec, 30 yards
Stacking in Cash Games
Here, we discussed a "game theory" question of whether stacking players on the same team was a beneficial strategy in the low-volatility world of cash game roster-building. Come for the discussion, stay for the coining of the term "Power Stack!"
Justin Howe: A cash stack is only viable if you're talking about a reliably high-usage and high-impact receiver. By that, I mean one who dominates targets and elevates his quarterback's game. Otherwise, you'll be moving away from the highly owned and high-floor options and banking on suboptimal outcomes -- the unexpected coming to life. And that's strictly a GPP principle, spending your QB and a WR slot on an under-the-radar combo with an outside chance of producing. In cash games, we need to be following the chalk (for the most part) and, more importantly, seeking floors, not ceilings.
[Stacking players like Kirk Cousins and Pierre Garcon is] a far cry from what Ryan calls a "Power Stack." Say you're stacking [Ben] Roethlisberger and [Antonio] Brown. Chasing their floors, we can reasonably expect something around 280 yards and 1.5 touchdowns from Roethlisberger (17.2 points) and six receptions, 80 yards line from Brown (14 points). Allow for even a slight increase from those low-ball numbers (in either yardage or touchdowns), and you're cashing easily on them.
GPP Pivots
In this question, I discussed another game theory/strategy topic but asked the gang to apply this week's players and prices to the situation. Generally, a good GPP strategy is to find the "chalk" player(s) and pivot to other more high-upside plays in their same price range. Will had some nice insight on the tight end position.
Will Grant: Scott Chandler was a big play at TE last week because Rob Gronkowski was out. Chandler had a decent week with 16 points including a touchdown, so his salary took a big jump from $2,500 to $3,800. That should get people to back off a bit, but he'll probably still see a high ownership percentage this week. Consider pivoting to Tampa Bay's Austin Seferian-Jenkins instead. He is back in the lineup now, and he had three catches for 31 yards last week. That kept his salary low at $2,700, but this week he's going against the Saints, who have given up playing defense this season. Opposing tight ends have been mauling them the last four weeks Greg Olsen scored 23.9 points last week; Ryan Griffin had 17.2 the week before; Jordan Reed had 17.9 before that; and Delanie Walker had 30.50 (along with teammate Anthony Fasano putting up 12.3) the week before that. At $2,700, Seferian-Jenkins has some big upside. He'll give you an extra $1,100 in salary over Chandler as well.
Dirt Cheap Quarterbacks
This question focused on Blaine Gabbert and Johnny Manziel in the San Francisco-Cleveland game. I asked the guys to discuss whether or not they would use either of those low-priced options to build up the rest of their lineups. And if not, I asked them to provide other low-priced alternatives.
John Mamula: I will have limited exposure to Manziel and Gabbert this weekend. The game total of 41 points is scaring me off of these offenses. I agree with Jeff that Taylor is in a good spot this weekend. But the low-priced quarterback that I am targeting is Jameis Winston ($5,500) vs. the Saints. The Bucs-Saints game has the highest projected game total of the week at 50.5 points. Winston is a couple of weeks removed from his five-touchdown performance vs. the Eagles. The Saints allowed five more passing touchdowns last week, which brings their season total up to a staggering 35 passing touchdowns allowed. To put that in perspective, the Eagles have allowed the second most passing touchdowns (28), and then it levels off with a few teams at 25 and 24 passing touchdowns allowed. Vegas is projecting this game to turn into a shootout, which provides Winston with a floor of two passing touchdowns. Barring injury, Winston will achieve 4x value this week on DraftKings.
For GPPs, I will still have about 60-70% exposure to West because I suspect he will be 40-50% owned; I always want to roster players I like at a rate higher than the masses while getting less exposure to players I dislike (when compared to global ownership percentages). If I am entering just one GPP lineup, I think you have to roster West and try to beat the field elsewhere because of his upside and likely ownership.
Enjoy the full article. It was a great week of discussion!  

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