DraftKings Sunday Games Roundtable - Week 15

This week's discussion focused on punt plays, candidates to receive the DraftKings performance bonuses for yardage, chalk plays, and tough issues facing elite wide receivers. It was a great session with the DraftKings staff and should give our readers plenty of insight heading into their contests their week.

Check out  full article here.

DraftKings Week 14 Roundtable

This week's discussion focused on replacement running backs, budget quarterbacks, defense/special teams plays, and off-script games. It was a great session with the DraftKings staff and should give our readers plenty of insight heading into their Week 11 contests.

Some excerpts are below, and the full article is here.

Squeaky Wheel
We discussed the idea of playing Julio Jones this week despite his poor matchup due to his voicing his displeasure with the team's red zone game-planning.

Jeff Haseley: He might be a candidate to receive more red zone looks, but this isn't the best week to expect big things from Jones. In his last four games against Carolina, Jones has struggled to produce big numbers. Josh Norman's presence, especially recently, is a big reason for that. Norman hasn't shadowed many receivers this season, but he has focused his efforts on containing Jones in the past. There has been considerable hype from Panthers camp about Norman covering Jones. I'd venture a guess that Norman plays a lot of man coverage on Jones this week.

Jones vs. Carolina (Last Four Meetings)

2014
Week 17 - 4 recs, 58 yards
Week 11 - 6 recs, 59 yards

2013
No games vs. CAR (injury)

2012
Week 14 - 5 recs, 66 yards, 1 TD
Week 4 - 1 rec, 30 yards

Stacking in Cash Games
Here, we discussed a "game theory" question of whether stacking players on the same team was a beneficial strategy in the low-volatility world of cash game roster-building. Come for the discussion, stay for the coining of the term "Power Stack!"

Justin Howe: A cash stack is only viable if you're talking about a reliably high-usage and high-impact receiver. By that, I mean one who dominates targets and elevates his quarterback's game. Otherwise, you'll be moving away from the highly owned and high-floor options and banking on suboptimal outcomes -- the unexpected coming to life. And that's strictly a GPP principle, spending your QB and a WR slot on an under-the-radar combo with an outside chance of producing. In cash games, we need to be following the chalk (for the most part) and, more importantly, seeking floors, not ceilings.

[Stacking players like Kirk Cousins and Pierre Garcon is] a far cry from what Ryan calls a "Power Stack." Say you're stacking [Ben] Roethlisberger and [Antonio] Brown. Chasing their floors, we can reasonably expect something around 280 yards and 1.5 touchdowns from Roethlisberger (17.2 points) and six receptions, 80 yards line from Brown (14 points). Allow for even a slight increase from those low-ball numbers (in either yardage or touchdowns), and you're cashing easily on them.

GPP Pivots
In this question, I discussed another game theory/strategy topic but asked the gang to apply this week's players and prices to the situation. Generally, a good GPP strategy is to find the "chalk" player(s) and pivot to other more high-upside plays in their same price range. Will had some nice insight on the tight end position.

Will Grant: Scott Chandler was a big play at TE last week because Rob Gronkowski was out. Chandler had a decent week with 16 points including a touchdown, so his salary took a big jump from $2,500 to $3,800. That should get people to back off a bit, but he'll probably still see a high ownership percentage this week. Consider pivoting to Tampa Bay's Austin Seferian-Jenkins instead. He is back in the lineup now, and he had three catches for 31 yards last week. That kept his salary low at $2,700, but this week he's going against the Saints, who have given up playing defense this season. Opposing tight ends have been mauling them the last four weeks Greg Olsen scored 23.9 points last week; Ryan Griffin had 17.2 the week before; Jordan Reed had 17.9 before that; and Delanie Walker had 30.50 (along with teammate Anthony Fasano putting up 12.3) the week before that. At $2,700, Seferian-Jenkins has some big upside. He'll give you an extra $1,100 in salary over Chandler as well.

Dirt Cheap Quarterbacks
This question focused on Blaine Gabbert and Johnny Manziel in the San Francisco-Cleveland game. I asked the guys to discuss whether or not they would use either of those low-priced options to build up the rest of their lineups. And if not, I asked them to provide other low-priced alternatives.

John Mamula: I will have limited exposure to Manziel and Gabbert this weekend. The game total of 41 points is scaring me off of these offenses. I agree with Jeff that Taylor is in a good spot this weekend. But the low-priced quarterback that I am targeting is Jameis Winston ($5,500) vs. the Saints. The Bucs-Saints game has the highest projected game total of the week at 50.5 points. Winston is a couple of weeks removed from his five-touchdown performance vs. the Eagles. The Saints allowed five more passing touchdowns last week, which brings their season total up to a staggering 35 passing touchdowns allowed. To put that in perspective, the Eagles have allowed the second most passing touchdowns (28), and then it levels off with a few teams at 25 and 24 passing touchdowns allowed. Vegas is projecting this game to turn into a shootout, which provides Winston with a floor of two passing touchdowns. Barring injury, Winston will achieve 4x value this week on DraftKings.

For GPPs, I will still have about 60-70% exposure to West because I suspect he will be 40-50% owned; I always want to roster players I like at a rate higher than the masses while getting less exposure to players I dislike (when compared to global ownership percentages). If I am entering just one GPP lineup, I think you have to roster West and try to beat the field elsewhere because of his upside and likely ownership.

Enjoy the full article. It was a great week of discussion!  

Week 9 DraftKings Fantasy Roundtable

This week's discussion focused on replacement running backs, budget quarterbacks, defense/special teams plays, and off-script games. It was a great session with the DraftKings staff and should give our readers plenty of insight heading into their Week 9 contests.

Some excerpts are below, and the full article is here.

Williams a Lock?
This topic discussed DeAngelo Williams and if he represents a good value play at his $5,500 price tag.

Chris Feery: I agree with everyone so far. Williams is far from a lock this week and will probably be very highly-owned. Also, as the others have mentioned, the better approach to attacking the Raiders would be through the air, making Roethlisberger and company an appealing target. Will just mentioned a great alternative in Jeremy Langford at $4,000, and there are few others we can look at in the same price range as Williams. A little to the north on the salary scale, we have Doug Martin at $5,700. Martin was underwhelming last week, but prior to that he had scored 23+ points for three consecutive weeks. As a cheaper alternative, consider Danny Woodhead at $4,800. Woodhead is another player coming off of a down game, but could see a nice bump in opportunities as the Chargers sort through their injury issues. 

Budget QBs
This discussion centered around Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota as they are the next opponents for the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints, respectively. But the guys took this one in other directions and recommended other low-priced quarterbacks with better prospects this week.

John Lee: ...and this is why we play DFS! I agree with Dan that Carr is intriguing in the same price range as Winston and Mariota, but I am not fond of John's Fitzpatrick selection. Both will face suspect secondaries, but I suspect the Jets will try to protect Fitzpatrick and any chance they have at a wild-card bid this year; if he aggravates the thumb injury while sitting in the pocket looking for a receiver against the Jaguars, nobody is going to forgive first year head coach for allowing it to happen. Instead, I expect a run-first approach from the Jets, although I do agree it is a tough matchup against a very stout rush defense.

Defense Plays
This topic discussed team defenses for this week, particularly as compared to Atlanta, who gets to face a very weak San Francisco team starting Blaine Gabbert this week.

Dan Hindery: The choice of defense for Week 9 is going to be a tough one, and I do not know if a real consensus play will end up emerging by Sunday morning or if there will be a cluster of defenses all ranked similarly. My shortlist top-five for Week 9 includes:

New Orleans ($2,200) - Sure they just got torched for 49 points. But the Tennessee offense is a mess, and they are projected to score fewer than 20 points this week by Vegas. Perhaps it is a better GPP play than a cash game option, but the extra $1,000 or so in savings compared to the top defenses could really provide a boost to a cash game lineup as well. There is also an interesting precedent here; Houston got torched for 42 first half points in Week 7 and came back against Tennessee in Week 8 and held them to six points, notched seven sacks, and collected three turnovers.

New England ($3,300) - New England is favored by 14 points, which means Washington will almost certainly be playing from behind and forced to go pass-heavy. Kirk Cousins has been turnover-prone throughout his career. New England has been one of the better D/ST options all season with 26 sacks in seven games. But they have yet to score a touchdown, which is the only thing that has kept them from having a big week. At some point, they are due to find the end zone.

Off-Script Games
Here, we discussed how we use Vegas to help us project games but that they're sometimes wrong. We're trying to identify the Week 9 games that won't go according to script.

John Mamula: I was surprised to see the Vegas projection of 49 total points in the Chicago Bears-San Diego Chargers game. I see this game coming in about six or seven points fewer than what Vegas is projecting. I do not see either offense producing as they have done in the past without their key playmakers.

Philip Rivers is leading the league in passing with 2,695 passing yards and 336 passing yards per game this season. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every home game this season. However, Rivers has lost his number one passing target, Keenan Allen. Through eight games, Allen had 67 receptions for 725 yards. This loss will have an effect on the entire offense and limits Rivers' upside. On the other side of the field, the Chicago Bears will be without the centerpiece of their offense, Matt Forte. Alshon Jeffery should be held in check by up-and-coming cornerback, Jason Verrett.

Enjoy the full article. It was a great week of discussion!  

Exposed Week 7

With the help of our defensive guru Aaron Rudnicki, we take a look at matchups between wide receivers and tight ends and how defenses will deploy to stop them. We look at some cheaper options that will allow you to load up your roster elsewhere, and some pricier ones that we think you should pay for. We also look at a few wide receivers and tight ends that we don't like this week.

You can read Exposed here.

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Week 6 Fantasy Roundtable

This week, we had some great discussion, including a long breakdown of the biggest #NarrativeStreet story of the week (and perhaps the season) in New England traveling to Indianapolis. We even had a somewhat contrarian opinion on using too many Patriots players this week (see below).

Here are topics and some notable excerpts. But if you want to skip straight to the full article, please do!

New England Breakdown

Dan Hindery: It’s interesting to see some of the astronomical predictions for the Patriots offense. Of course the Patriots would love to go out and put up silly numbers against Indianapolis (and it’s possible they do it). But every team would love to go out and score 50 points on any given Sunday, and it rarely happens. I’d be very wary of going overboard with narrative versus sticking to the fundamentals of an analytical approach.

The most likely outcome is probably much more like what we just saw against Dallas. The Vegas Team Total has been hovering right around 31 (give or take a point). That’s one more than New England just scored against Dallas (which led to solid but unspectacular fantasy production). Stephen Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 made field goals per game (7.5 points from field goals), so that takes the offensive scoring total down from 31 to ~23.5. The Patriots defense/special teams has a decent shot at a score and that probably accounts for ~2.5 points, which takes the offensive scoring projection down to almost exactly three touchdowns (21 points).

Shootout Stacks

Jeff Pasquino: Another game with a lot of possible offense is in Green Bay, where the Packers host the Chargers. The over/under is over 50 right now, and I can easily see that coming to fruition with Aaron Rodgers lighting up a San Diego team on short rest after a bad home loss to the Steelers. Giving up 24 points at home to a Michael Vick-led squad is rough, so just imagine what Rodgers can do.

Monday Night Hangovers?

Scott Bischoff: The Steelers take on the Arizona Cardinals at home this week, a very formidable foe, and they will likely be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger again. The Cardinals deploy a confusing type of defense, and I can't see backup quarterback Michael Vick doing much through the air in this game. The Steelers offense will be carried by running back LeVeon Bell. More importantly, the Cardinals offense is rolling right now, and overall it is not the best timing for the Steelers to take on the Cardinals.

Replacing Charles

Jeff Haseley: Put me in the camp that believes Knile Davis will eventually win this role. It wasn't long ago that Davis was considered an RB1 fantasy play when Charles was out, and that was with Reid as head coach. Could West be the guy to earn substantial playing time? Sure, but at least we know what Davis is capable of and that Reid has relied on him before with a successful result. I don't love either of these backs, but if I had to guess who would perform the best when called upon, it would be Davis. I am not targeting either back this week for cash games. In GPPs, I may take a chance on West, because it looks like he has the lead on the role at this time. This week the percentages are in his favor, but an injury or ineffectiveness will change that momentum over to Davis quickly.

Enjoy the article. It's a long read, but it's well worth the time. These are some of the greatest minds fantasy football (and especially Daily Fantasy Football) has to offer. I make a lot of my own DraftKings lineup decisions based on how this group of individuals answers my questions. Enjoy!
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Footballguys Roundtable on DraftKings Sunday Lineps

Looking for help in constructing your Sunday DraftKings lineups? The staff of Footballguys.com sat down this week to discuss different topics about who to start on Sunday and why.

Here's a sample of some of the questions that were discussed in our DraftKings Roundtable.

LeVeon Bell appears to have picked up right where he left off last season, registering 26.2 and 31.0 fantasy points in his two games this season. This week, he’ll cost you a whopping $700 more than the second-highest running back.

Is Bell worth it? If you’re paying up for him, where are you sacrificing elsewhere?

.....

Last week, the game script question was an enlightening one in that it showed just how difficult it can be to predict NFL games. Let’s see if this week’s round of staffers can nail a few games.

So please pick a game on the slate this week and tell us how you think it will play out. Which player(s) will benefit from this script? Which become values?

.....

Are Tom Brady ($7,800) and Aaron Rodgers ($7,900) actually somewhat contrarian plays this week? With Peyton Manning ($7,000) vs Oakland’s horrific secondary, Eli Manning ($6,800) vs San Francisco’s poor group, and Philip Rivers ($6,200) vs. Pittsburgh’s poor pass defense, do you foresee “the masses” not wanting to pay up at quarterback?

Even matchups like New Orleans-Philadelphia with Drew Brees ($7,200) and Sam Bradford ($6,000) and Chicago-Kansas City with Jay Cutler ($5,300) and Alex Smith ($5,500) provide attractive-for-the-price options.

......

Devonta Freeman’s salary has risen from $4,200 (Week 2) to $4,600 (Week 3) to $5,200 (Week 4) and is now sitting at $6,300 for this week.

Last week, Freeman torched a previously good rush defense at home. Is he still a solid cash game play for one more week despite another tough run matchup and the increased salary?

Check out our DraftKings Sunday Roundtable this week. As an added bonus, all Footballguys.com DraftKings content is free this week. 

Exposed Week 4

Let us help you to pick a few wide receivers and tight ends that have nice mathchups this week so you can load up elsewhere on your roster. We also include a few plays that we don't like.

You can read Exposed here.

Follow @Bischoff_Scott

Monday - Thursday Slate

You will not find much discussions on the Mon - Thurs NFL slates around the Internet, for a number of reasons.  First, picking players from just two games is scary.  The way to take down a GPP on a two game slate is pretty simple - get everything right.  That's hard.  With more games in play, the room for error is much bigger.  Look no further than a DraftKings' weekly perfect lineup and compare it to the top scores on even the biggest GPPs and you will find that the winners were still about 20% or more lower than the perfect score.  On short slates, you need to be as close to perfection, if not 100% perfect, as possible.

Still, these can be some fun games to play, and that's what DFS is supposed to be about, right?  Watch the games with a chance to win some money, and if you don't, just say "Oh well, maybe next time."  That's the attitude you need here.

The other part that makes Monday - Thursday slates so difficult is that these games are three days apart, which feels like a lifetime.  Consider this week where Baltimore goes to Pittsburgh on Thursday.  We know that Michael Vick will be starting, but there are some other guys who are banged up (like Crockett Gillmore) and we are not certain about whether they will play on Thursday.  That highlights a great feature of DraftKings - the ability to make a late swap right up until a player's game kicks off.  You can put Gillmore in, for example, and then decide to use Heath Miller instead on Thursday or even Maxx Williams.  You have that choice.

Now, let's talk about Monday Night Football and Kansas City visiting Green Bay.  The simple recipe for the Chiefs is to run the ball as much as possible with Jamaal Charles ($7,400) (and a little of Knile Davis ($3,000)) and play keep away from Aaron Rodgers.  That might work for a while and keep Kansas City in the game until later in the contest, which is all you want to have Charles be productive and getting 20+ touches in this one.  Travis Kelce  ($5,000) is the the top target for Alex Smith ($6,000), and the big tight end could find the end zone in Lambeau Field.  Jeremy Maclin ($6,000) will have a hard time getting to value unless he gets to 100 yards, and I just do not see that happening.  I like using Kelce and Charles from this group, but Alex Smith and/or Maclin are tournament options.

Green Bay should have Eddie Lacy ($7,200) starting tonight instead of James Starks ($3,000), but I think this game comes down to Aaron Rodgers ($8,000) and his big arm.   Randall Cobb ($7,300) should see a lot of opportunity from the slot and I like him to be the leading receiver tonight, while James Jones ($4,800) has a better chance to score than Davante Adams ($5,000) who is also coming back from injury.  Rodgers and Cobb are my favorite plays, but either wide receiver is a viable tourney option as is TE Richard Rodgers ($2,500).

Now let's talk AFC North.  Baltimore, 0-3 for the first time with Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh, heads to Pittsburgh where the Steelers have to figure out what to do without Ben Roethlisberger on a short week.  Michael Vick ($5,000) will be your starter here, but the value of stud wide reciever Antonio Brown ($9.200) drops significantly, as does home run wideout Derrius Heyward-Bey ($3,600).  Markus Wheaton ($3,500) barely warrants any mention, but two players sure to be in the short passing game this week are running back Le'Veon Bell ($7,700) and TE Heath Miller ($3,700).  Vick will dump the ball into Bell's hands early and often, and Miller should have a good shot at reaching value against Baltimore's soft secondary, something Miller always seems to find a way to exploit in this rivalry.  My top picks for Pittsburgh are Bell and Miller, but if you need cap room, consider Vick, who makes a cheap tournament stack play with Antonio Brown.  I would really not go hard after any other wide reciever aside from Brown, but if you are looking to separate your lineups, Wheaten or Heyward-Bey are you choices.

The Ravens are desperate for a win.  DESPERATE.  Joe Flacco ($6,000) has so few options to move the ball, it is almost ridiculous.  After WR Steve Smith ($6,200), only five targets went to wide receivers last week.  Tight ends Crockett Gillmore ($3,500) and rookie Maxx Williams ($2,500) were featured more all over the field against Cincinnati, and Williams could be the guy if Gillmore is out (he missed all of the second half for reasons unknown).  The run game could be in play, but who do you trust?  Justin Forsett ($6,000) is not looking that great, and Lorenzo Taliaferro ($3,000) is not on the field enough, even if he does get a shot at a touchdown.  Flacco and Smith are the safe options, and then it is anyone's best guess.

As always, take it easy on short slates, but have some fun.  Enjoy the games for what they are - games with some chance at some nice upside.  Good luck.

Enter your Monday-Thursday teams here on DraftKings.

Interactive Saturday! Tweet me your DFS questions all day long!

We here at Footballguys are interactive and here for the people! We love to toss DFS wisdom morsels at the feet of the peasants as we drive by. So those with Week 2 DFS questions, send them my way all day Saturday at the Twitter link below (@JustinHoweFF) for direct exposure to the winning touch Footballguys brings to your weekends!


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