Josh Huff: The Sneaky Monday Night Hammer

It's not too often we get clarity on injury situations impacting Monday Night Football on a Saturday, but today's injury report gifted us with some actionable DFS news regarding the upcoming Eagles-Giants game. No, it wasn't the update on Odell Beckham Jr.'s hamstring we're all patiently waiting for, But this little nugget could go a long way in deciding the outcomes of this weekend's tournaments:

Eagles have ruled WR Nelson Agholor (ankle), LB Kiko Alonso (knee), DE Brandon Bair (groin), & LB Mychal Kendricks (hamstring) OUT for #MNF.

— ESPN Monday Night (@ESPNMondayNight) October 17, 2015

According to Mike Clay from Pro Football Focus, Miles Austin played 45 out of 47 snaps in relief of Nelson Agholor, who left last week's game early with an ankle injury. The problem with Austin as a stealth DFS play is that his career ended three seasons ago and no one has bothered to tell him. Despite the additional playing time, Austin wasn't even targeted in last week's game against the Saints.

Week 5 was a breakout of sorts for Josh Huff, who saw 49% of the Eagles wide receiver snaps, rotating with Riley Cooper. Huff scored his first NFL touchdown on a 41-yard reception, though the Saints defense deserves most of the credit for that play. What has me most excited about Huff on Monday night is that he flashed an all around game that got the coaching staff's attention -- something that can't be said for Austin or Cooper, who are known commodities at this point in their careers.

Here's Chip Kelly (Huff's college coach at Oregon and the man who made him a third round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft) on Huff's Week 5 performance:

"Josh . . . is an extremely dynamic player," Kelly said. "I think he's got the ability to change directions, stop and start. He's really good with the football in his hands, that's why he's doing a great job of returning for us. . . . But the other thing with Josh is he's extremely tough. He's one of the better blockers in this league."

In other words, don't be surprised if you see a lot more of Huff on the field this week at the expense of Austin, Cooper, or both. It was only about a month ago redraft owners were talking themselves into Agholor as a WR2 based on the numbers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin put up as the primary outside receiver in Kelly's offense. If Huff -- a talented receiver who generated some of his own preseason buzz -- has a chance at capturing that role, I want to be a week early plugging him into my lineups rather than a week late.

Huff's match-up with the Giants -- who will be missing stud cornerback Prince Amukamara -- and near minimum $3,100 price tag are icing on the cake. As Kelly pointed out, Huff is "really good with the football in his hands". A receiver with Huff's YAC ability has a huge edge on the Giants, who have allowed the fifth-most yards after the catch in the NFL season.

In a week where it's a struggle to squeeze multiple studs in great match-ups into your line-ups, Huff brings salary relief and tons of upside to the table. He should remain less than 5% owned in  large field tournaments, providing you with a low-owned hammer to help you climb the standings on Monday night.



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Week 6 Fantasy Roundtable

This week, we had some great discussion, including a long breakdown of the biggest #NarrativeStreet story of the week (and perhaps the season) in New England traveling to Indianapolis. We even had a somewhat contrarian opinion on using too many Patriots players this week (see below).

Here are topics and some notable excerpts. But if you want to skip straight to the full article, please do!

New England Breakdown

Dan Hindery: It’s interesting to see some of the astronomical predictions for the Patriots offense. Of course the Patriots would love to go out and put up silly numbers against Indianapolis (and it’s possible they do it). But every team would love to go out and score 50 points on any given Sunday, and it rarely happens. I’d be very wary of going overboard with narrative versus sticking to the fundamentals of an analytical approach.

The most likely outcome is probably much more like what we just saw against Dallas. The Vegas Team Total has been hovering right around 31 (give or take a point). That’s one more than New England just scored against Dallas (which led to solid but unspectacular fantasy production). Stephen Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 made field goals per game (7.5 points from field goals), so that takes the offensive scoring total down from 31 to ~23.5. The Patriots defense/special teams has a decent shot at a score and that probably accounts for ~2.5 points, which takes the offensive scoring projection down to almost exactly three touchdowns (21 points).

Shootout Stacks

Jeff Pasquino: Another game with a lot of possible offense is in Green Bay, where the Packers host the Chargers. The over/under is over 50 right now, and I can easily see that coming to fruition with Aaron Rodgers lighting up a San Diego team on short rest after a bad home loss to the Steelers. Giving up 24 points at home to a Michael Vick-led squad is rough, so just imagine what Rodgers can do.

Monday Night Hangovers?

Scott Bischoff: The Steelers take on the Arizona Cardinals at home this week, a very formidable foe, and they will likely be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger again. The Cardinals deploy a confusing type of defense, and I can't see backup quarterback Michael Vick doing much through the air in this game. The Steelers offense will be carried by running back LeVeon Bell. More importantly, the Cardinals offense is rolling right now, and overall it is not the best timing for the Steelers to take on the Cardinals.

Replacing Charles

Jeff Haseley: Put me in the camp that believes Knile Davis will eventually win this role. It wasn't long ago that Davis was considered an RB1 fantasy play when Charles was out, and that was with Reid as head coach. Could West be the guy to earn substantial playing time? Sure, but at least we know what Davis is capable of and that Reid has relied on him before with a successful result. I don't love either of these backs, but if I had to guess who would perform the best when called upon, it would be Davis. I am not targeting either back this week for cash games. In GPPs, I may take a chance on West, because it looks like he has the lead on the role at this time. This week the percentages are in his favor, but an injury or ineffectiveness will change that momentum over to Davis quickly.

Enjoy the article. It's a long read, but it's well worth the time. These are some of the greatest minds fantasy football (and especially Daily Fantasy Football) has to offer. I make a lot of my own DraftKings lineup decisions based on how this group of individuals answers my questions. Enjoy!
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Washington - Philadelphia Game to be Rescheduled?

Due to the severe weather expected to hit the Mid-Atlantic this weekend due to Hurricane Joaquin, the NFL may have to reschedule the Philadelphia - Washington game scheduled for 1PM Sunday in DC.  If this happens, the NFL is fortunate that both teams are on a bye in Week 8 and therefore this game would be played then rather than now (Week 4).

Redskins-Eagles could be moved to Week 8 due to Hurricane Joaquin http://t.co/sgAJZd3xyS via @cbssports

— Jeff Pasquino (@JeffPasquino) October 1, 2015

The decision is likely to come down sometime Saturday as the Eagles are slated to take the trip down I-95 to Washington on Saturday.

Now, this means you should watch out for any lineups you make this week and be sure to not play any Eagles or Redskins unless the game is certain to be played.  Even if it does kickoff as scheduled, be careful as driving rains and wind will likely impact this contest.

As always, Footballguys has you covered for all the latest things in the NFL.

Week 2: Why I love Darren Sproles

As I start to build my Cash and GPP lineups for this weekend, I find that I'm leaning toward Darren Sproles a lot this week.

Here's a couple reasons why you should consider having him in your lineup.

Last Week's Performance. 

Sproles had only 5 rushing attempts, but converted them into 50 yards of rushing, compared with the 14 total yards from DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews combined. Sproles won't get many goal line carries, but he knows how to make the most of his limited touches.

Now add in the seven receptions on nine targets for 76 more yards and you can see he turned in a pretty solid day from a fantasy prospective. That gave him 19.6 points in DraftKings scoring system, for a very affordable $3500.

If you've read our Cracking DraftKings Strategy Guide, you know that to be a good Cash Game player (50/50, double ups), we're targeting a player that can reach 3x their salary in points. For a Tournament, we're looking for 4x or better. At 3500, Sproles only needs 10.5 points to be a 3x player. at 14 he's 4x and at 17.5 he's 5x or more. Last week Sproles didn't reach the end zone, but at 19.6 points, he was almost 6x his salary value.

The Monday Night Salary Exploit

In most cases, DraftKings needs to lock in the stating salary for the following week contests before the Monday Night game is finished. Since Sproles was playing in Monday Night of Week 1, his performance wasn't considered when his salary was set for Week 2. Savvy DraftKings players know this and look for value plays based on the Monday Night game. As expected, Sproles salary for this week is still only $3500 despite his big performance last week against Atlanta.

Week 2: Sproles vs. Dallas Cowboys

 Last week the Cowboys only gave up 99 yards rushing, but Shane Vereen also chipped in four receptions for another 46 yards. The Cowboys also controlled the clock for the game, allowing the Giants less than 23 minutes of offense. Those are similar stats to what the Eagles had against the Falcons, so any improvement on that means more opportunities for Sproles to touch the ball.

Vegas is expecting a high scoring game. The current Over/Under is 55.5 points, with the Eagles a 5 point favorite at home. This means the Eagles are protected to put up about 30 points in this game. The Cowboys are also without Dez Bryant this week, which will make it that much harder for them to move the ball. The more opportunities that the Eagles have to score, the more likely Sproles will be to reach his target value.

Currently, our projections at Footballguys.com have Sproles with four receptions and a combined 52 yards rushing and receiving. This puts him very close to 3x value already, not taking into account any potential TD scoring. He could easily exceed these if this turns into a high-scoring game.

Return TD Potential. 

Finally, Sproles is also Philadelphia's punt returner. While DraftKings doesn't award points for return yards, they do give 6 points for any punt return TD. (See Jarvis Landry's stat line from last week).

Sproles only had 2 punt return TDs last season, but that extra scoring opportunity only makes him that much more attractive.

A Note on GPP.

Sproles is no brainer in cash games. In GPP he represents excellent value as well, but he might also be in a lot of other lineups. Typically you target player that are not on a lot of other rosters, so this is something to consider before using Sproles in a tournament lineup. He has an excellent chance to reach the 4x or 5x value that you want, so if you decide to use him, make sure to target lesser owned players with your other roster spots.

Good Luck this weekend!


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