Conference Championship Round GPP Breakdown: AFC

Some quick notes before diving into this week's slate:

• DraftKings is still offering head-to-heads and 50-50s this week. If you were still playing cash games the last two weeks, you likely found yourself in plenty of scenarios where three or less players decided the outcome of your contest due to roster overlap between you and your opponents. With two less games to choose players from this week, the overlap will be amplified. Any edge you had over your opponents no longer exists due to the razor thin player pool. More so than with the wildcard and divisional rounds, this is a week for GPPs only -- and even then you should be playing mostly for fun.
• To that end, DraftKings is running some lucrative large field tournaments -- the $1 Million Conference Championship ($20 entry, 57K person field) and $1.25 Million Play Action ($3 entry, 479K person field) both pay $100,000 to the winner. Play what your bankroll allows, but if you were the type of player to enter two $20 GPPs per week during the regular season, I would suggest taking that $40 and spreading it out over 20 or so entries into smaller tournaments. To make a deep run this week, your margin for error is literally zero. If you don't get every single player who has a big game into your lineup, you'll be buried in the standings. Unless you get incredibly lucky, it's going to take a few variations to hit the right combination of players.
• It's the last week of anything resembling NFL DFS until preseason starts up more than six months from now. Enjoy the last taste, but it's worth repeating -- even the best player's edge is minimal to non-existent on this slate. Don't give back the winnings you worked so hard to pile up this season just because this is the last action you'll see for awhile. 

Huge thanks to all the readers and Footballguys subscribers for making work a pleasure this year, and good luck on Sunday!

Patriots

Denver ranked inside the top-8 in all of the pertinent pass defense metrics -- DVOA (1st), opponent completion percentage (8th), passing yards per game (2nd), passing touchdown percentage (8th), yards per pass attempt (1st), and sack percentage (1st). As a result, Vegas has shown the Broncos defense respect by setting New England's implied team total at 23.5 points. It's a number I envision Tom Brady ($7,400) and company cruising past fairly easily. The Patriots scored at least 27 points in every one of Julian Edelman's nine starts this season, and Brady finished with less than 23 fantasy points in only one of those nine games. New England had the sixth highest passing play percentage in the league, and we saw them slant heavily towards the pass last week against Kansas City (only seven rushing attempts by running backs). I'd expect the Patriots to once again play to their strengths against a Denver rush defense that let up a league-low 3.3 yards per attempt this season. It should also help Brady's cause that Broncos stud cornerback Chris Harris played with one arm the whole game against the Steelers last week.

With New England's offense in pass-only mode against the Chiefs, James White ($4,600) saw 72% of the running back snaps -- substantially higher than the 35%-40% he had been playing recently. It didn't result in much production (6.4 fantasy points), but on the chance White sees similar field time against Denver, I'll have him in about 30% of my lineups. For what it's worth, the Broncos gave up the eighth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Pricing is tight enough that fitting both Jonathan Stewart and David Johnson into a lineup is difficult, so White won't exactly be a contrarian play, but he will certainly check in lower owned than the NFC backs and probably C.J. Anderson as well. Steven Jackson ($3,000) played on 29% of the snaps and had six carries for 16 yards last week, putting him under 2.8 yards per carry in all three of his appearances as a Patriot. I suppose Jackson has touchdown upside, but I'm not sure I can bring myself to roster him. Even if Peyton Manning self destructs and New England gets out to a big lead, I don't expect expect Bill Belichick to start running Jackson into a brick wall -- especially if Brady has the short passing game humming. Brandon Bolden ($2,600) will be under 2% owned, but justifiably so after seeing only 7% of the backfield snaps last week.

Julian Edelman ($7,500) is the highest-priced wide receiver on the slate and very likely to be the highest-owned after returning from a two-month layoff to drop 24.1 fantasy points on the Chiefs. Nothing we've seen all season suggests Edelman won't once again act as Brady's primary chain mover on short and intermediate routes, which puts the chances he finishes with less than 15 fantasy points extremely low (it happened once in the eight games Edelman finished this year). Brandon LaFell ($3,300) is awful, but he profiles as a worthy contrarian play this week. He was out there on 90% of the snaps vs. Kansas City and was targeted a respectable five times. Denver is going to have to focus their coverage on Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, which should leave LaFell in soft spots where Brady can find him. Keshawn Martin ($2,600) hooked up with Brady for a 42 yard gain last week, but was in on only 17% of the wide receiver snaps. I won't argue against using him (or anyone really) to construct a unique roster, but I'd rather take my chances with someone like LaFell, who will at least be on the field. Danny Amendola ($4,400) will see a lot of Harris' coverage in the slot. If Harris' shoulder injury hampers him as much as it did last week, Amendola at least stands a chance. But like LaFell, he's an uninspiring contrarian option whose best selling point is that he'll be on the field.

Rob Gronkowski ($7,600) is the biggest fantasy difference maker on the slate and is priced accordingly at $100 more than Edelman. When New England and Denver met in Week 12, Gronk caught six passes for 88 yards and a touchdown. Dating back to 2011, he has 40 catches for 516 yards and six touchdowns in six games against the Broncos. With Greg Olsen only $500 less, there's no question I'll have more exposure to Gronkowski and his GPP-winning ceiling than Olsen (who I still like quite a bit) this week.

The Patriots Defense ($3,100) provides a bit of much needed cap relief and has upside in this matchup against Peyton Manning. Manning wasn't terrible last week against the Steelers, but he didn't do anything to prove the guy who threw 17 interceptions through the season's first nine games isn't still lurking behind that orange #18 jersey.

Broncos

Speaking of Peyton Manning ($5,500), there are contrarian plays, and then there are just bad plays. Manning -- who completed only 56.8% of his passes against a notoriously leaky Pittsburgh pass defense last week -- qualifies as the latter. If he couldn't turn in a serviceable day at home against the Steelers, I have no faith he can do so against a Patriots team that should be able to pressure him (New England's 2.9 sacks per game trailed only Denver's 3.2 for the league lead). I also can't imagine Gary Kubiak's game plan is to beat New England through the air. 35+ pass attempts for Manning would probably mean Kubiak's (and Broncos fans) worst nightmare has come true.

Even in a down game for Manning, both Demaryius Thomas ($7,000) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6,300) were able to reach low double digit fantasy points against the Steelers. Neither receiver faces a particularly exploitable cornerback matchup, but they both qualify as high-floor options who have demonstrated 30 point ceilings. There aren't many players you can say that about on this week's slate, making both receivers viable options. It's worth noting when these teams met in Week 12 (with Brock Osweiler at quarterback) Thomas was limited to one catch for 36 yards, while Sanders posted a 6-113-0 line. Pro Football Focus grades New England's Leonard Johnson as the worst cornerback on this week's slate, but there's no mismatch we can exploit as a result. Jordan Norwood ($2,100) and Andre Caldwell ($2,000) split Denver's slot snaps pretty evenly, effectively cancelling each other out.

C.J. Anderson's ($4,400) price is up $700 from last week after he turned 17 touches into 16.3 fantasy points against a tough Steelers run defense. Anderson has run for less than 4.8 yards per carry in a game just once since Week 8, and has five games with over six yards per carry over that span. It's also encouraging his best game of the season came against New England in Week 12 (15-113-2 plus another 4-40 receiving). While Anderson is the far superior option to Ronnie Hillman ($3,900), the Broncos 50-50 backfield timeshare is here to stay, which caps the upside of both backs against New England's top 10 rush defense (DVOA). Ultimately, it will be difficult to avoid rostering Anderson due to his price and recent production, but Hillman makes for an interesting contrarian play as the cheapest source of 15 touches on the slate. I also don't hate the idea of pairing both Denver running backs with the Broncos defense in a unique roster construction. We can't rule out Denver winning this game at home, and the only way that happens is if the Broncos keep the ball out of Brady's hands by controlling the clock with the run and playing great defense.

Playing Owen Daniels ($2,300) on a two-game slate when Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen are your other options is, um, not optimal. Daniels was on the field for 70% of the snaps last week -- making him the clear play over Vernon Davis ($2,200) and Virgil Green ($2,100) -- but it resulted in two catches for 10 yards against Pittsburgh. If you're really trying to talk yourself into Daniels, I guess you can make a case for New England struggling against tight ends in recent weeks. The Patriots allowed four tight end touchdowns in their last five games of the regular season to the combination of Zach Ertz, Delanie Walker, and Jordan Cameron -- and Travis Kelce probably would have had a touchdown against them last week if Alex Smith hadn't overthrown him in the end-zone.

The Broncos Defense ($3,300) is absolutely dominant and probably comes with a six point floor due to their league-leading sack rate. I just don't see how they can win you a GPP this week against a Patriots offense that has rolled in every game they were completely healthy. There's also a greater than zero chance Manning implodes and leaves them climbing an uphill battle against poor field position. I'll have some exposure to the Broncos, but like most people I'll be going heaviest on Carolina's defense in hopes they keep up their dominant play at home.

Check back on the blog Saturday for the NFC breakdown.

Follow @PhilTWR

Divisional Round GPP Breakdown: Sunday Games

If you missed my breakdown of the New England vs. Kansas City and Arizona vs. Green Bay games (along with some notes on how we can learn from week's Millionaire Maker results when constructing lineups this week), click here. Otherwise, go ahead and dig right in to the Sunday games.

Seahawks

I'm having a tough time deciding whether Seattle @ Carolina ends in a 13-10 defensive slug-fest, or a 30-27 shootout. Vegas landed in the middle, setting the over/under at 44 points, meaning neither team has an implied total above the 24 point mark I usually prefer to target. The line is fair -- Carolina allowed only 17 points per game at home (third-lowest in the league), with both of their late season shootouts coming on the road at the Saints and Giants respectively. I'd like Russell Wilson ($6,800) and the Seahawks offense much more if this game were being played in Seattle, but I do think Wilson warrants a spot on about 15% of your tournament rosters. He'll be lower-owned than Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, and Tom Brady, yet his demonstrated ceiling of 38 fantasy points is right there with each of them. Wilson has averaged 36.6 rushing yards per game in three meetings with Carolina over the last two years, which is nearly the equivalent of an extra passing touchdown per game on DraftKings. Prior to last week's impossible weather game at Minnesota, Wilson had scored at least 21 fantasy points in seven straight contests.

Barring any further surprises, Marshawn Lynch ($6,400) will be active for the first time since Week 10. With the running back position razor thin behind David Johnson, it's tempting to pencil Lynch into lineups, but I'm keeping my expectations in check. Carolina ranks 6th in rush defense DVOA, we have no idea what type of workload Lynch is ready for after such a long layoff, and with Christine Michael ($5,500) running well the last few weeks, it's entirely possible we see the two form some sort of rotation. Lynch is certainly viable on this slate due to his touchdown upside, but if he doesn't score, I'd bet you're looking at about seven fantasy points. I'd rather punt RB2 with someone like Fitzgerald Toussaint or one of the Denver backs, and spend the extra money at wide receiver (or even tight end). If you're looking for a strong case to play Lynch, check out what Dan Hindery wrote in this week's Roundtable.

The Doug Baldwin ($6,800) regression refuses to ever come. This season's cumulative WR7 is once again a strong play despite the tough matchup with Carolina's elite secondary. Baldwin runs 83% of his routes from the slot (per Pro Football Focus), which means he should avoid Josh Norman on the majority of his routes (Norman ventured into the slot on only 2% of his snaps this season). After catching a red zone touchdown last week, Baldwin now has five red zone scores in his last five games on the strength of an NFL leading 61% red zone target market share over that span. Tyler Lockett ($4,400) figures to see the most of Norman's coverage, which limits his appeal (even as a contrarian stacking option in the return game when paired with Seattle's defense). Jermaine Kearse ($3,200) is an interesting low-owned flyer for the second straight week. Before throwing up a dud in last week's ice bowl, Kearse had scored double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six games. Of the three Seattle receivers, he has by far the best one-on-one matchup with Carolina cornerback Robert McClain.

With Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce, Heath Miller (and even Richard Rodgers) on the slate, there is no reason to roster Cooper Helfet ($2,500) or Chase Coffman ($2,800). 

It feels strange to say the Seahawks Defense ($4,100) isn't a top play, but considering their price and bad spot (on the road against a 15-1 team who employs the best quarterback in the NFL this season), there are better options.

Panthers

If I were making 10 GPP lineups this week, Carson Palmer would be on four of them and Cam Newton ($7,500) would be on three. Your number one goal when constructing rosters this week is to assemble a team that can score the most raw points (as opposed to targeting the best point per dollar values at each position). Very simply, Newton has demonstrated the ability to score more points than any other quarterback, and there's a decent chance you'll need him to run deep in tournaments, despite the bad on-paper matchup. It's worth noting Newton's fantasy points per game average increased by about 16% in home games this season.

Jonathan Stewart ($5,800) will be active for the first time since Week 14, and we should see his ownership depressed a bit due to the injury layoff, bad matchup, and steep price tag (he's only $200 less than David Johnson). While Seattle does rank third in rush defense DVOA, Stewart has had their number. He posted a 20-78-2 line on the Seahawaks in their Week 6 meeting, and he reached 70 yards on only 13 carries in Carolina's blowout loss to Seattle in last year's playoffs. There's always the chance Stewart gets poached by Cam Newton at the goal line, but the narrative he doesn't have touchdown upside is a fallacy. From Week 6 (after he came back healthy from the Panthers bye week) through 14 (his last game played before getting injured), Stewart led the league in carries and touchdowns from inside the opponent's five yard line. As one of the few backs on this slate guaranteed at least 15 touches, Stewart is absolutely in play.

With Rob Gronkowski's murky injury situation, Greg Olsen ($6,900) is easily the safest tight end on the slate. I'm expecting him to be one of the three highest-owned players this week, but like Jordan Reed last week, this doesn't look like the spot to fade him. Seattle was exposed by tight ends on several occasions this season. They ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight ends and allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position. When these teams met in Week 6, Olsen exploited the matchup to the tune of seven catches, 131 receiving yards and a touchdown.

The rest of Carolina's receivers will either hold the key to a GPP win or sink your lineup completely. If you believe Cam Newton is going to look every bit like the league MVP in a tough matchup, it makes sense to pair him with flyers like Corey Brown ($3,500), or Jerricho Cotchery ($3,000) who will go under 5% owned. Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,000) found himself on several winning GPP lineups late in the season thanks to his deep ball skills. I don't like his chances of catching a bomb against a Seattle secondary that allowed the fourth-fewest pass plays of 20+ yards. If I had to choose a Panthers wide receiver to roster it would be either Cotchery (who has a plus matchup in the slot with Seattle cornerback Deshawn Shead), or Devin Funchess ($3,400). Funchess isn't guaranteed playing time, but he's proven himself as a playmaker in just about every opportunity he's gotten this season, and Carolina Head Coach Ron Rivera recently referred to his as the team's X-Factor for the playoffs.

Steelers @ Broncos Speed Round

It doesn't look like I have enough time left to give you my full thoughts on this game, and get it out in time to do you any good, so we're going lightning round on the final game of the weekend...

• Ben Roethlisberger ($7,000) - The latest reports on Roethlisberger stated he was a full participant in Friday's practice and his arm strength looked the same as usual. The matchup is ugly, Roethlisberger's road splits are not promising, and he'll be missing his best weapon, but that report is encouraging enough for me to get at least one Steelers stack into the portfolio. The rest of the field will be scared to death to use Roethlisberger and there's a chance he can be set-up with numerous short fields if Peyton Manning looks anything like he did early in the season.
• Fitzgerald Toussaint ($4,200) - The narrative states that with Antonio Brown out and Roethlisberger's arm at less than full strength, Toussaint should clean up in the short passing game. I buy it -- Toussaint was targeted eight times last week and generated 10 of his 15.8 fantasy points via the receiving game. Denver allowed the eighth-most receptions to opposing running backs during the regular season.
• Jordan Todman ($3,800) - I've always liked Todman as a runner and he showed why last week with 65 yards on 11 carries against a tough run defense. But with Denver now favored by 7.5, the implied game script heavily favors Toussaint who played 66% of Pittsburgh's running back snaps last week. The only spot I'll have Todman is in a contrarian lineup that features both Pittsburgh backs, where I'm looking for the low priced combination to net me about 25 combined fantasy points.
• Martavis Bryant ($6,000) - Bryant can score from anywhere on the field regardless of who he's lined up against. He belongs in your tournament lineups every week, and this game is no different. The Steelers have been trying to get the ball in Bryant's hands on short slants (and even rushes) in recent weeks, so he might not be ruined if Roethlisberger can't throw downfield. He'll also likely see an uptick in targets with Brown sidelined.
• Markus Wheaton ($4,300) - Wheaton will take on an expanded role with Brown out, but I'm convinced he's a terrible player and he'll have to deal with shutdown corner Chris Harris on the majority of his routes. If having zero exposure to Wheaton is the reason I don't win money this week, I'm fine with that.
• Heath Miller ($3,200) - Can Miller get you the 10-12 fantasy points you need for him to pay off his price tag -- especially with Brown sidelined? Of course. But the floor here is low and the ceiling not high enough for me to justify using him over Gronk, Olsen, Kelce, or my preferred tight end sleeper, Richard Rodgers.
• Steelers Defense ($3,600) - This is a super-sneaky contrarian play that I'll be looking to get into at least 30% of my lineups. Everyone will be using a defense from a big home favorite, which will leave the Steelers under-owned in a matchup with Peyton Manning. Manning has an awful playoff track record, and threw 17 interceptions in nine games before getting injured. Pittsburgh may very well have the best on paper matchup of any D/ST on the slate.
• Peyton Manning ($6,000) - I'm incredibly conflicted on Manning this week. I've already mentioned his suspect history in playoff games and how bad he's been this season. However, the weakness of Pittsburgh's defense is in their secondary, and Denver's receivers match-up with the Steelers corners so well it's hard not to like Manning at this price tag (and low ownership). Ultimately, I think Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are good enough to bring Manning along for the ride. I'll have 15%-20% exposure.
• C.J. Anderson ($3,700) - Anderson has averaged over six yards per carry in five out of his last six games. He's been the better runner than Ronnie Hillman over the second half of the season, but unfortunately Anderson is no lock to receive more carries than his platoon-mate. Considering Anderson's recent explosiveness and the implied game script, there's a case to be made for him as the RB2 on this slate behind David Johnson.
• Ronnie Hillman ($4,100) - I like Hillman a lot less than Anderson, but since the Broncos insist on trotting him out there for 15 touches per game, I'll be forced to split my Anderson and Hillman shares down the middle. You should too. It can easily be Hillman who benefits most if the Broncos get out to an early lead and take the air out of the ball late in the game.
• Demaryius Thomas ($7,000) - Thomas is a nightmare for the Pittsburgh secondary, as evidenced by his two-touchdown performance against the Steelers in Week 15. He averaged 93.3 receiving yards per game in his 10 games with Manning this season, compared to 61.8 in the six games Manning missed. Given the matchup and Antonio Brown's absence, Thomas' ceiling on this slate is WR1.
• Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800) - Sanders will be matched up against Antwon Blake, PFFs lowest graded cornerback on the slate. When Sanders last faced his old team in Week 15, he exploited the matchup to the tune of a season-high 39.5 fantasy points. The monster performance counted as Sanders' sixth 20+ point fantasy game this season, proving his ceiling is plenty high to help you land in a GPP winner's circle. I'll have lots of lineups that feature both Thomas and Sanders.
• Owen Daniels ($2,500)/Vernon Davis ($2,900) - Don't do this to your rosters.
• Broncos Defense ($3,900) - Denver is my favorite D/ST play of the week. Pittsburgh is not the same team on the road (21.8 points per game away vs. 30.6 at home). They have to face one of the best defenses in the league without two of their best weapons, and their quarterback may not be able to throw past the line of scrimmage. Denver has sacked enemy quarterbacks on 8.32% of their plays this season, the highest rate in the league. If Roethlisberger gets blown up and lands on his shoulder, there's a strong possibility we'll see Landry Jones for extended action. That is a recipe for a deep tournament run.

Follow @PhilTWR

Divisional Round GPP Breakdown: Saturday Games

Before we get into this week’s plays, some lessons from last week’s results:

• I theorized last week, "If you want to have any shot at a deep run in tournaments, you’ll need to surround your core of chalk plays with at least two under-the-radar players (think 20% owned or less on such a short slate) and probably more depending on the size of the field." I was only partially right.

• Last week’s winning Millionaire Maker lineup included four players who were owned by less than 20% of the field. Nine out of the 10 top scoring rosters did indeed include at least two players under 20% owned.

• However, there was another path to a unique roster -- one that could be repeated this week. Travis Kelce was the only player under 20% owned in the lineup that finished in a seven-way tie for third place in the Millionaire Maker. Those seven entrants used Kelce in the flex next to Jordan Reed and passed up huge chunks of the field when both tight ends exploded for big games. Last week’s results are likely to make flexing a tight end more popular this week (especially with Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, and Kelce on the slate), but foregoing a running back or wide receiver in the flex will never sit well with the majority of entrants. Rostering two tight ends is once again a viable strategy for differentiating your tournament lineups in the divisional round.

• It wasn’t just low-owned players, or unique roster construction that won all the money last week. You had to go down to 52nd place in the Millionaire Maker to find a lineup that didn’t include the highest-owned quarterback (Kirk Cousins - 31.8%), wide receiver (Antonio Brown - 66.2%), and tight end (Jordan Reed - 54%). Let this serve as a reminder that you don’t need to stray too far from the beaten path when building lineups this week -- especially now that we have four new teams full of well-rested, well-prepared players. You’ll want to build your core around the obvious plays on the home favorites this week and once again seek out a differentiator or two, whether it be in player selection or roster construction.

Keeping what we learned last week in mind, I felt it would be more useful to go team-by-team and touch on each of the fantasy relevant options, rather than focus on one GPP dart from each team like I did last week.

Chiefs

There’s very little to like outside of Travis Kelce ($5,100) on the Chiefs offense. Kelce exploded for 8-128-0 last week and tied a season-high with 10 targets. With Jeremy Maclin likely limited, Kelce would become Kansas City’s top receiving option. New England was a tough draw for opposing tight ends this season, but they have given up a combined four touchdowns to Zach Ertz, Delanie Walker, and Jordan Cameron in their last five games.

Running back is ugly enough that I was looking forward to using Charcandrick West ($5,500) in a bad matchup, but Spencer Ware ($4,500) returned to practice Thursday and would seem on track to play through his ankle injury. As long as Ware suits up, I won’t have much exposure to either Kansas City running back on the road in Foxborough, where the Chiefs are five point underdogs. It makes sense to have a few shares of Ware if you’re building multiple GPP lineups. He has 32 carries to West’s 21 over the last two games and there’s always a possibility he’ll fall forward for a few yards into the end zone.

Alex Smith ($5,400) simply doesn’t have the ceiling to win you a tournament, and that’s especially true this week with Kansas City projected by Vegas to score less than 19 points. Any upside he possessed is dinged by Maclin’s injury. I can’t envision Maclin being effective even if he plays, which could open the door for Albert Wilson ($3,800) as a GPP dart. Wilson would have been a more popular play this week if Alex Smith hadn’t overthrown him on what would have been a 58-yard touchdown against the Texans. With so many viable wide receiver options to choose from, I don’t see the need to roster Chris Conley ($3,000) unless Maclin sits.

The Chiefs Defense ($4,000) has scored less than eight fantasy points just once since Week 7, but there’s too many big home favorites on the slate to trust them in this spot.

Patriots

As long as the knee injury that held Rob Gronkowski ($7,500) out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday checks out, he’s my favorite GPP play on the Patriots side of the ball. Kansas City ranked second in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight ends and allowed the least overall fantasy points to the position, but Gronk is no ordinary tight end. Considering Gronkowski’s knee injury (which reportedly required a pain killing injection), price (he’s more expensive than the WR2), mediocre performances in his last two games, and the presence of Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce in the player pool, we should get a break on his ownership percentage. I wouldn’t sweat Gronk's last two game logs -- the Patriots were being very careful not to put him in a position where he could get hurt (a plan which apparently didn't work out very well).

Kansas City has a stout run defense and the Patriots will be trotting out 32 year old Steven Jackson ($3,300) at running back. Jackson is cheap and had 15 touches (including a touchdown) at Miami in Week 17, but unless he scores multiple touchdowns, he probably won’t reach double-digit fantasy points in this matchup. Maybe he’s worth a shot in about 10% of your lineups, on the chance New England blows Kansas City’s doors completely off and goes run-heavy in the second half. If the Patriots decide not to test the Chiefs run defense, I’d expect James White ($5,200) to play a major role in the short passing game. White scored between 14 and 31 fantasy points in each game from Weeks 13 to 16. Adding him to a Patriots stack is a nice way to squeeze a little extra juice out of Tom Brady if the New England offense has a big game.

Tom Brady ($7,400) is a very interesting tournament option this week. I expect Carson Palmer and Cam Newton to be heavily-owned, and the crowd might hesitate to use Brady after his terrible last two games of the regular season. But offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer (who got hurt during the Patriots Week 16 loss) will be back, which is a huge plus for Brady’s chances of withstanding the Chiefs pass rush. Brady will also get Julian Edelman ($7,100) back for this game. Over the last two seasons, Brady’s fantasy points per game are 50% higher in the 23 games he’s played with Edelman than the nine games he’s played without him.

As for Edelman, I expect we won’t see his ownership percentage get too high due his price (WR2) and the uncertainty surrounding his injury. Personally, I’m not too concerned about either. Edelman has flashed a 25-30 point ceiling on several occasions this season, and he’s been practicing for over a month. The matchup against Kansas City’s cornerbacks is winnable enough to support a big game. As far as GPP flyers go, you can do worse than Brandon LaFell ($4,000). The weakness of Kansas City’s secondary has been on the perimeter most of the year, and that’s where LaFell lines up on about 80% of his routes. LaFell has been appallingly bad this season, but he’s at least a theoretical red zone threat on a team with the third-most red zone scoring attempts. Danny Amendola ($5,500) isn’t really on my radar, but he should be healthy and he’s had some good games with Edelman in the lineup this season. If the Patriots have the quick passing game humming, Amendola could see 6-8 targets, which would make him a fine contrarian option for your Brady stacks.

The Patriots Defense ($3,500) is right there with the Broncos as my preferred D/ST unit. New England trailed only Denver in sacks per game this season, while Chiefs quarterbacks were sacked on 9% of their offensive plays -- the third highest rate in the league. Alex Smith will be overmatched in Foxborough and the Patriots should roll to an easy win, which points to a strong day for their defense.

Cardinals

The most common roster construction this week is likely to include Carson Palmer ($6,500), David Johnson ($6,000), and at least one Cardinals wide receiver. But if you’re looking to go contrarian, fading the Cardinals skill players isn’t the place to do it. Arizona is this week’s biggest favorite (-7) and they have the highest implied team total (28.5 points) by a wide margin over New England (23.75 points). Don’t be afraid to play Palmer and Johnson in a lineup together due to worries about negative correlation between quarterbacks and running backs from the same team. They are the top plays at their respective positions, and it’s not like there are many viable pivots (especially at running back). Besides, Johnson is such a talented receiver (at least three catches and 31 receiving yards in every game since Week 14), he’s much more likely to help Palmer’s numbers than hurt them.

Michael Floyd ($5,100) has been a favorite play of mine for most of the season. His salary is still nowhere close to reflecting his expected production against a Green Bay team he torched for 111 yards in Week 16. It looks like Floyd will have to contend with cornerback Sam Shields who missed the last four games with a concussion, but Shields may not be 100% after such a long layoff, and no one’s confusing him with Josh Norman anyway. John Brown ($5,200) should enjoy favorable coverage from rookie Damarious Randall on the majority of his routes. According to Pro Football Focus, Randall has allowed the third-most fantasy points per route defended among the cornerbacks on this week’s slate. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen Brown’s 30 point ceiling, but he’s settled in as a high-floor option (11 games with at least double-digit fantasy points) who has the potential to go nuclear in any given week. I won’t have much Larry Fitzgerald ($6,500) since he’s comparatively expensive, Arizona’s other receivers possess higher ceilings, and he faces a difficult matchup in the slot with Casey Hayward. But I will be using Fitzgerald to cut the chalk in some spots based on high target volume and the possibility the bye week returns him to early season form.

The Cardinals Defense ($3,800) has as high a ceiling as exists for a D/ST, but I don’t plan on having much exposure with better options on the board and high potential for this game to turn into a shootout.

Packers

The Packers are my preferred underdog  to use players from due to the aforementioned shootout potential in their matchup with the Cardinals. After watching Green Bay’s offensive line hold off Washington’s solid pass rush, it’s doubtful we’ll see a repeat of the nine-sack performance that doomed the Packers to a 38-8 loss in their Week 16 visit to Arizona. Aaron Rodgers ($6,700) and the Green Bay offense have to be feeling more confident after their convincing Wildcard win, and they should be playing with a collective chip on their shoulder to get some revenge for that Week 16 drubbing. I’ll definitely be building some Rodgers-centric lineups in hopes the best quarterback in the game can keep the positive momentum going.

With Davante Adams likely out (addition by subtraction), Randall Cobb ($5,900) will line up on the outside more and see plenty of stud cornerback Patrick Peterson, but James Jones ($4,600) and Jared Abbrederis ($3,000) should help Rodgers’ cause. Jones saw a team-high 11 targets last week, which was consistent with his usage over the last four games of the regular season (team-leading 28% target market share). The combination of Jones’ guaranteed volume and big play ability (his 18 receptions of 20+ yards ranked 11th-best this season) makes him one of the best point per dollar values on the slate for the second consecutive week. Assuming Abbrederis takes Cobb’s place in the slot in three-receiver sets (he’s lined up there on 87% of his routes this year), he’ll enjoy coverage from Tyrann Mathieu replacement, Jerraud Powers. According to Pro Football Focus, Powers has allowed the second-most fantasy points per route defended among the cornerbacks on this week’s slate. You can do much worse for a minimum salary punt than the receiver seeing high percentage passes from Aaron Rodgers.

With Gronk, Olsen, Kelce and Heath Miller destined to tie up 95% of the tight end traffic, Richard Rodgers ($4,000) makes for an interesting contrarian play. When you adjust for strength of schedule, the Cardinals were one of the worst teams in football at defending the tight end. Over the last five weeks of the season, Arizona allowed over 35% more fantasy points per game to the position than the league average. With Adams out of the lineup, Rodgers could also be called upon for additional targets.

Running back is ugly behind David Johnson, so both Eddie Lacy ($4,400) and James Starks ($4,000) are worth a look. The duo combined for a 2.83x salary multiplier last week, which was actually pretty good considering the alternatives. It's tough to forecast much success for either Green Bay running back on the ground against Arizona's second-rated rush defense (DVOA). Either player would be best used in a unique roster construction along with Aaron Rodgers in hopes they can take a screen pass to the house (like Lacy did against the Cardinals in Week 16).

The Packers Defense ($3,400) doesn’t belong anywhere near your lineup this week.

Check back on Saturday for some analysis on Sunday’s games (Seahawks @ Panthers and Steelers @ Broncos).


Follow @PhilTWR

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 17

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of this week's player analysis:

Aaron Rodgers - $6,800 vs. MIN (5% Owned or Less)

Trusting the Packers offense has gotten me in plenty of trouble this year, but I can’t resist rostering Rodgers at $1,800 less than his Week 1 price. Despite his struggles this year, Rodgers still ranks as the cumulative QB8 and Green Bay is in a great bounceback spot after getting slaughtered on the road in Arizona last week. The stench of that ugly loss will keep most entrants off Rodgers, but he’s playing at home (where his fantasy points per game have increased by 25% over the last two seasons), the Packers are favored to win, and their implied team total of 25 points is enough to allow for a big game. Minnesota’s pass defense is solid, but 76% of the touchdowns they’ve allowed this season have come via the pass (third-highest in the league).

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 14

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of this week's player analysis:

Anquan Boldin - $4,000 @ CLE (Less than 5% Projected Ownership)

Boldin has consistently been under 5% owned this season, and his 8.7 point clunker against a soft Bears pass defense last week certainly won't help him win any popularity contests. But he's quietly been a consistent producer with Blaine Gabbert under center for the 49ers (14 and 17 fantasy points in Weeks 11 and 12 respectively), and while the counting stats weren’t there last week, Boldin did see a season-high 13 targets. Over the last four weeks, Boldin’s 30.7% target market share ranks fifth-highest in the league, and for the season, his 43.6% red zone target market share is the highest of any wide receiver. Cleveland sports the league’s fourth-worst pass defense (DVOA) and allows the second-most red zone scoring attempts per game. Boldin is capable of returning 4x his salary on receptions and yards alone. If he manages a touchdown catch, he’ll obliterate his GPP target score.

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 13

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of this week's player insight:

Kyle Rudolph - $3,700 vs. SEA (Under 5% Projected Ownership)

The Seahawks rank 29th in pass DVOA to opposing tight ends and have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to the position this season. Rudolph followed up his season best 6-106-1 receiving line in Week 11 against the Packers with a solid 7-53-0 performance last week. His 19 targets over the last two games are very encouraging and he’s assured some action when Minnesota visits the red zone. Rudolph’s 38.46% red zone target market share is the seventh-highest in the league. He’s got clear top five upside in this matchup and remains affordably priced as the TE14. Rudolph’s 1.4% ownership in Thursday tournaments on Fanduel (where he was the TE19) is a strong sign he’ll be overlooked on DraftKings as well.

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 12

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of the player insight:

Chris Ivory - $5,800 vs. MIA (6%-10% Projected Ownership)

Ivory’s price is down $300 after he posted a season-low 5.5 fantasy points in the Jets’ road loss to Houston. New York returns home this week, where Ivory is averaging nearly twice as many fantasy points per game as he does on the road. The Dolphins enter this game hemorrhaging fantasy points to opposing running backs. Over the last five weeks they’ve let up over 48% more fantasy points per game to the position than the league average. Vegas has the Jets favored by 3.5 points, which is another split in Ivory’s favor. In the three games New York has been a favorite of at least 3.5 points, Ivory’s fantasy points per game increase by more than 102%.

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 10

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of the player insight:

Calvin Johnson - $7500 @ GB (6% to 10% Projected Ownership)

Johnson underwhelmed and got banged up in his last game before the Lions bye week. He shouldn’t be a popular play with guys like Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery (groin injury notwithstanding) available for slightly less. Green Bay ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA to opposing WR1s. Their top cornerback -- Sam Shields -- missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury, and even if he can return this week to match up with Johnson, there’s concern about his ability to extend his arm upwards. Johnson always seems to get up for Packers games. Since 2011, his fantasy points per game have increased by 14% against Green Bay. In his last three trips to Lambeau Field, Johnson has averaged a monstrous 8-134-1 receiving line.

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 9

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Aaron Rodgers - $7,400 @ CAR

It would be shocking to see more than 2% of the field pay up for Rodgers as the QB2 in a tough on-paper matchup with the Panthers -- especially after his disastrous 77 yard passing performance in a nationally televised game. But Rodgers is the best quarterback in the world, he’s likely to have a chip on his shoulder after getting embarrassed in the national spotlight, and the Packers are in a sneaky good spot this week. Carolina’s defense has to be a little worn out coming off an exhausting overtime win over the Colts on Monday night, and now they have to prepare to face Rodgers on a short week. Vegas has the Packers favored by 2.5 points on the road and their implied team total of 24.25 points suggests Rodgers still has his usual three touchdown upside. In a week where the masses will flock to Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Eli Manning, Rodgers is a high upside lineup differentiator.

Chris Johnson: Buyer Beware

In my weekly column, Projecting Ownership Percentage, I made the case for using Chris Johnson in GPPs despite a moderately high ownership projection. Here was my thinking:

• Johnson looks completely rejuvenated this season.
• Since Week 2 (his first game as a starter), only Devonta Freeman has totaled more than Johnson's 530 rushing yards.
• Johnson is due for positive touchdown regression. He only has three rushing touchdowns despite seeing the fourth-most attempts from inside the opponent's 10-yard line since Week 2.
• No team has surrendered more fantasy points and rushing yards per game to running backs than Johnson's opponent this week, the Cleveland Browns.
• The game script is favorable for running back production. Arizona is a 4.5 point favorite with a solid 25.25 point implied team total. 
• Johnson is the cumulative RB8 since Week 2 per DraftKings scoring, yet he's still priced as the RB19. There's profit baked into his affordable $4,600 price tag.

So what's up with the title of this post?

On Friday, Cardinals Head Coach Bruce Arians revealed there will be "more in the game plan" for Andre Ellington this week. That report was followed up by this quote from Arizona's offensive coordinator, Charles Goodwin:

"I think BA (head coach Bruce Arians) has stuff for (Ellington) and he didn't get to it, but I'm sure he'll get to it this week. As you saw (Monday night), there was a series where I think he was pretty much in there the whole series because he (Arians) wanted to get him going. He's got fresh legs, obviously."

With most teams, I'd write this off as coach speak, but not with the Cardinals. Bruce Arians is the Jim Carrey character from Liar, Liar when it comes to addressing the media, specifically as it relates to Ellington. When he told us the offense would run through Ellington in 2014, most analysts laughed -- until Ellington averaged over 20 touches per game before inevitably breaking down. And coming into this season, when Arians told us Ellington's role wouldn't change despite the acquisitions of both Johnson and rookie running back David Johnson, very few people believed him. But in Week 1, there was Ellington dominating the Cardinals' running back snaps (and looking really good) before spraining his PCL in the second half.

As an unabashed Ellington supporter, maybe the stock I'm putting into the news cycle is slanted by confirmation bias, but Arians' affection for Ellington is undeniable, and it's entirely possible Arizona has been limiting his touches in an effort to get him completely healthy for the stretch run. Not to mention, Ellington has been awesome on his limited opportunities this season -- he's averaging 7.6 yards per carry and 13.7 yards per catch.

I'm now approaching this week as though we'll see a close-to-even split of backfield snaps between Ellington and Chris Johnson, which means Johnson is no longer safe for cash games. I would rather Danny Woodhead at $4,500 or Jonathan Stewart in a great match-up with the Colts at $4,100 if I'm looking to save at running back. And in GPPs, the better play may actually be Ellington. He'll unquestionably be lower owned, and if he does see a significant uptick in playing time, the match-up with Cleveland should unlock his big-play ability.The Browns have let up the second-most rushing plays of 10 yards or more in the league.

Follow @PhilTWR

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 8

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Kamar Aiken - $4,200 vs. SD (Less than 5% Projected Ownership)

Aiken’s days of fantasy relevance are seemingly over now that Steve Smith and Crockett Gilmore have returned to Baltimore’s lineup. Last week, Joe Flacco threw the ball 40 times and Aiken only saw three targets. As a result, Aiken is certain to be less than 2% owned (and deservedly so), but he could be a sneaky play against San Diego. Last week, Aiken was on the field for 80% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps -- the most of any Ravens wide receiver -- so it’s clear playing time is not the issue. This week, Aiken figures to run the majority of his routes against Chargers cornerback Brandon Flowers. Aiken has five inches and 28 pounds on Flowers, who has let up the most fantasy points per route defended this season according to Pro Football Focus. This recommendation is admittedly a high-risk dart throw, but if Flacco spots the mismatch, Aiken has a 20+ point ceiling in a game with the highest over/under on the slate (50.5 points).

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 7

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Adrian Peterson - $7,600 @ DET (6%-10% Projected Ownership)

Peterson was over 17% owned in last week’s Millionaire Maker and disappointed to the tune of 6.7 fantasy points. Recency bias should present us with an opportunity to roster Peterson below his usual ownership rate in a great match-up with Detroit. When these teams met back in Week 2, Peterson totaled 192 yards from scrimmage on 31 touches in a convincing Vikings win. Minnesota is favored on the road this week and expected to score a solid 23.5 points. A league-leading 60% of the Vikings touchdowns have come via the run this season, which doesn’t bode well for Detroit. The Lions have allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, and the most plays from inside their own 10-yard-line. Peterson has the highest touchdown potential of any running back on this week’s slate, making him an excellent GPP play.

Josh Huff: The Sneaky Monday Night Hammer

It's not too often we get clarity on injury situations impacting Monday Night Football on a Saturday, but today's injury report gifted us with some actionable DFS news regarding the upcoming Eagles-Giants game. No, it wasn't the update on Odell Beckham Jr.'s hamstring we're all patiently waiting for, But this little nugget could go a long way in deciding the outcomes of this weekend's tournaments:

Eagles have ruled WR Nelson Agholor (ankle), LB Kiko Alonso (knee), DE Brandon Bair (groin), & LB Mychal Kendricks (hamstring) OUT for #MNF.

— ESPN Monday Night (@ESPNMondayNight) October 17, 2015

According to Mike Clay from Pro Football Focus, Miles Austin played 45 out of 47 snaps in relief of Nelson Agholor, who left last week's game early with an ankle injury. The problem with Austin as a stealth DFS play is that his career ended three seasons ago and no one has bothered to tell him. Despite the additional playing time, Austin wasn't even targeted in last week's game against the Saints.

Week 5 was a breakout of sorts for Josh Huff, who saw 49% of the Eagles wide receiver snaps, rotating with Riley Cooper. Huff scored his first NFL touchdown on a 41-yard reception, though the Saints defense deserves most of the credit for that play. What has me most excited about Huff on Monday night is that he flashed an all around game that got the coaching staff's attention -- something that can't be said for Austin or Cooper, who are known commodities at this point in their careers.

Here's Chip Kelly (Huff's college coach at Oregon and the man who made him a third round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft) on Huff's Week 5 performance:

"Josh . . . is an extremely dynamic player," Kelly said. "I think he's got the ability to change directions, stop and start. He's really good with the football in his hands, that's why he's doing a great job of returning for us. . . . But the other thing with Josh is he's extremely tough. He's one of the better blockers in this league."

In other words, don't be surprised if you see a lot more of Huff on the field this week at the expense of Austin, Cooper, or both. It was only about a month ago redraft owners were talking themselves into Agholor as a WR2 based on the numbers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin put up as the primary outside receiver in Kelly's offense. If Huff -- a talented receiver who generated some of his own preseason buzz -- has a chance at capturing that role, I want to be a week early plugging him into my lineups rather than a week late.

Huff's match-up with the Giants -- who will be missing stud cornerback Prince Amukamara -- and near minimum $3,100 price tag are icing on the cake. As Kelly pointed out, Huff is "really good with the football in his hands". A receiver with Huff's YAC ability has a huge edge on the Giants, who have allowed the fifth-most yards after the catch in the NFL season.

In a week where it's a struggle to squeeze multiple studs in great match-ups into your line-ups, Huff brings salary relief and tons of upside to the table. He should remain less than 5% owned in  large field tournaments, providing you with a low-owned hammer to help you climb the standings on Monday night.



Follow @PhilTWR

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 6

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Anquan Boldin - $4,300 vs. BAL (6%-10% Projected Ownership)

Yes, there’s the revenge game factor. And yes, Boldin does seem like the type of competitor who would enjoy sticking it to his former team. But the real reasons to love Boldin this week are not narrative driven. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. More specifically, Baltimore is allowing 3.6 red zone scoring attempts per game, which ranks in the bottom third of the league. Surprisingly enough, the 49ers have run the second-most offensive plays that began in the red zone this season. Boldin’s 11 red zone targets not only represent a team-high 41% market share, they rank third in the entire NFL, behind only DeAndre Hopkins and Jarvis Landry. Colin Kaepernick got back on on track in a plus road match-up with the Giants last week and should be able to keep the ball rolling downhill at home, in an equally enticing spot. A second straight 25+ point performance for Boldin would not come as a shock.

Week 6 Fantasy Roundtable

This week, we had some great discussion, including a long breakdown of the biggest #NarrativeStreet story of the week (and perhaps the season) in New England traveling to Indianapolis. We even had a somewhat contrarian opinion on using too many Patriots players this week (see below).

Here are topics and some notable excerpts. But if you want to skip straight to the full article, please do!

New England Breakdown

Dan Hindery: It’s interesting to see some of the astronomical predictions for the Patriots offense. Of course the Patriots would love to go out and put up silly numbers against Indianapolis (and it’s possible they do it). But every team would love to go out and score 50 points on any given Sunday, and it rarely happens. I’d be very wary of going overboard with narrative versus sticking to the fundamentals of an analytical approach.

The most likely outcome is probably much more like what we just saw against Dallas. The Vegas Team Total has been hovering right around 31 (give or take a point). That’s one more than New England just scored against Dallas (which led to solid but unspectacular fantasy production). Stephen Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 made field goals per game (7.5 points from field goals), so that takes the offensive scoring total down from 31 to ~23.5. The Patriots defense/special teams has a decent shot at a score and that probably accounts for ~2.5 points, which takes the offensive scoring projection down to almost exactly three touchdowns (21 points).

Shootout Stacks

Jeff Pasquino: Another game with a lot of possible offense is in Green Bay, where the Packers host the Chargers. The over/under is over 50 right now, and I can easily see that coming to fruition with Aaron Rodgers lighting up a San Diego team on short rest after a bad home loss to the Steelers. Giving up 24 points at home to a Michael Vick-led squad is rough, so just imagine what Rodgers can do.

Monday Night Hangovers?

Scott Bischoff: The Steelers take on the Arizona Cardinals at home this week, a very formidable foe, and they will likely be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger again. The Cardinals deploy a confusing type of defense, and I can't see backup quarterback Michael Vick doing much through the air in this game. The Steelers offense will be carried by running back LeVeon Bell. More importantly, the Cardinals offense is rolling right now, and overall it is not the best timing for the Steelers to take on the Cardinals.

Replacing Charles

Jeff Haseley: Put me in the camp that believes Knile Davis will eventually win this role. It wasn't long ago that Davis was considered an RB1 fantasy play when Charles was out, and that was with Reid as head coach. Could West be the guy to earn substantial playing time? Sure, but at least we know what Davis is capable of and that Reid has relied on him before with a successful result. I don't love either of these backs, but if I had to guess who would perform the best when called upon, it would be Davis. I am not targeting either back this week for cash games. In GPPs, I may take a chance on West, because it looks like he has the lead on the role at this time. This week the percentages are in his favor, but an injury or ineffectiveness will change that momentum over to Davis quickly.

Enjoy the article. It's a long read, but it's well worth the time. These are some of the greatest minds fantasy football (and especially Daily Fantasy Football) has to offer. I make a lot of my own DraftKings lineup decisions based on how this group of individuals answers my questions. Enjoy!
Follow @RyanHester13

Millionaire Maker Week 5 Recap

My weekly recap of the DraftKings Millionaire Maker Tournament is now available for subscribers here.

My major takeaways from digging through the top lineups and crunching the numbers was:

1. All of the value in Week 5 was at RB and TE and very little value was there at the WR position. The average scoring running back and tight end outscored even the highest scoring wide receiver on the Top 20 rosters. Looking forward to Week 6, it looks like we may see the phenomenon repeat itself. There is a whole lot of value at RB. Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Demarco Murray, Dion Lewis, Chris Ivory and Charcandrick West are amongst the running backs that look to be priced favorably. Meanwhile, the top wide receivers (with the possible exception of DeAndre Hopkins) all appear to be overpriced.

2. For the third straight week, it was obvious that you had to nail your TE selection to finish near the top of the standings. Every single top finisher had either Gary Barnridge or Antonio Gates. I'm at a bit of a loss as to how to approach the position however. If you feel like there is a lot of luck involved (as Barnridge's touchdown catch with his knees perhaps indicates), maybe the solution is simply to fire up multiple entries into the Millionaire Maker with different tight ends in each. Or perhaps the top plays should have been obvious in hindsight and it is worth spending extra time each week at the all important tight end position. (Maybe I'm just venting a bit here as someone who owned way too many shares of Martellus Bennett and Charles Clay in Week 5?)

3. It was the lowest scoring week at Wide Receiver in the entire year and a half that I've been tracking  this tournament. Nobody topped 29 points at the position. With Odell Beckham, Jr. and Julio Jones banged up, Antonio Brown missing Ben Roethlisberger, and Demaryius Thomas/Calvin Johnson both dealing with major issues at quarterback, perhaps it is time to stop paying up for high-priced WR1s until somebody re-emerges as a stronger every week option. Or perhaps DeAndre Hopkins is quietly emerging as the WR1 to own over the next few weeks? Is any wide receiver more of a lock for double-digit targets than Hopkins right now?

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 5

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Eddie Lacy ($6,700 vs. STL - 5% Projected Ownership)

Lacy checks off every box I look for in a GPP running back. He’s playing at home (where he performed significantly better last season) on a heavily favored team with a high implied point total, and the crowd has every reason to fade him. Since putting up 17.9 fantasy points in Week 1, Lacy has been injured, splitting snaps and held out of the end zone -- yet he’s still the sixth-most expensive running back on the slate. With fantasy football superhero Devonta Freeman available for $400 less, it’s a safe bet Lacy will be overlooked. Lacy played on 77% of Green Bay's snaps in Week 1, before spraining his ankle early in Week 2. He played hurt on 41% of the team's snaps in Week 3, and that number bumped up to 56% last week. With the injury now squarely in the rear-view, I’d expect his snap count to return to pre-injury levels, affording Lacy the opportunity to pound the Rams into submission once Green Bay opens up a big lead. The match-up with St. Louis’ defensive front isn’t as bad as it sounds -- the Rams have allowed 38.6% more fantasy points to running backs than the league average over the last three games.

Millionaire Maker Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Preview

My weekly recap of the top lineups, trends and strategies used in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament can be found here. Some of the major takeaways from Week 4 are:

1. It was one of the lowest-scoring weeks in recent memory and almost all of the top wide receivers vastly underperformed. Most of the week's top receiver scores came from players priced below $5,000 (Vincent Jackson, Allen Hurns, and Tavon Austin for example). Interestingly, even on the top lineups the WR3s (as determined by price) far outscored the WR1s.

Would it be a worthwhile strategy to enter a Millionaire Maker lineup while trying to stick to an artificially lower cap of ~$45,000? It's an interesting concept to ponder. In a week like the one we just experienced, this strategy would have saved you from overpaying for Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Jr., Randall Cobb and the many other highly priced busts and forced you to assemble a lineup with multiple cheaper wide receiver options (which likely would have been beneficial). A strategy like this also automatically gives you a highly unique lineup since you are making entirely different decisions about how to allocate your cap and likely dealing with a unique pool of players to choose from. In weeks where the top receivers and backs perform as expected, you are likely sunk. But if things play out like they did in Week 4, you could be well positioned to take home first overall. It's a boom-bust strategy, but that's what you are looking for in these top-heavy GPPs.

2. For the second straight week, you almost had to own Devonta Freeman. He again outpaced the field at running back and separated the contenders from the pretenders in the Millionaire Maker. Can you fade him in Week 5 at a $6,300 price point?

3. You had to nail tight end to finish near the top in Week 4. Charles Clay and Martellus Bennett were both "chalk" plays with favorable matchups and extra targets expected due to Sammy Watkins and Alshon Jeffery being out with injury. Both produced solid scores that were especially valuable in a week where only one player topped 200 points.

Exposed Week 4

Let us help you to pick a few wide receivers and tight ends that have nice mathchups this week so you can load up elsewhere on your roster. We also include a few plays that we don't like.

You can read Exposed here.

Follow @Bischoff_Scott

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 4

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned."

And the player insight:

Carlos Hyde - $5,100 vs. GB (Less Than 5% Owned)

Hyde is an interesting high-risk/high-reward play this week. The reasons to remove him completely from your player pool are obvious. San Francisco's defense has been terrible in their last two games, we’ve seen Hyde adversely affected by the resulting negative game scripts, and the 49ers play host to a Green Bay Packers team averaging over 32 points per game. So why play Hyde in GPPs -- besides the fact he’s unlikely to appear on more than 3% of your opponent’s rosters? The Packers could come out flat for this game after traveling on a short week. San Francisco played with intensity on both sides of the ball in their only other home game this year. Their plan will be to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands, which can only be accomplished by sustaining drives with large doses of Hyde. It’s worth noting the Packers rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA metric, which accounts for down, distance, and situation. It will get ugly for Hyde quickly if Rodgers remains white-hot and the Niners defense lays down again, but his ceiling is a 5x return on his salary if San Francisco can stay competitive at home.