Week 6 Fantasy Roundtable

This week, we had some great discussion, including a long breakdown of the biggest #NarrativeStreet story of the week (and perhaps the season) in New England traveling to Indianapolis. We even had a somewhat contrarian opinion on using too many Patriots players this week (see below).

Here are topics and some notable excerpts. But if you want to skip straight to the full article, please do!

New England Breakdown

Dan Hindery: It’s interesting to see some of the astronomical predictions for the Patriots offense. Of course the Patriots would love to go out and put up silly numbers against Indianapolis (and it’s possible they do it). But every team would love to go out and score 50 points on any given Sunday, and it rarely happens. I’d be very wary of going overboard with narrative versus sticking to the fundamentals of an analytical approach.

The most likely outcome is probably much more like what we just saw against Dallas. The Vegas Team Total has been hovering right around 31 (give or take a point). That’s one more than New England just scored against Dallas (which led to solid but unspectacular fantasy production). Stephen Gostkowski is averaging 2.5 made field goals per game (7.5 points from field goals), so that takes the offensive scoring total down from 31 to ~23.5. The Patriots defense/special teams has a decent shot at a score and that probably accounts for ~2.5 points, which takes the offensive scoring projection down to almost exactly three touchdowns (21 points).

Shootout Stacks

Jeff Pasquino: Another game with a lot of possible offense is in Green Bay, where the Packers host the Chargers. The over/under is over 50 right now, and I can easily see that coming to fruition with Aaron Rodgers lighting up a San Diego team on short rest after a bad home loss to the Steelers. Giving up 24 points at home to a Michael Vick-led squad is rough, so just imagine what Rodgers can do.

Monday Night Hangovers?

Scott Bischoff: The Steelers take on the Arizona Cardinals at home this week, a very formidable foe, and they will likely be without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger again. The Cardinals deploy a confusing type of defense, and I can't see backup quarterback Michael Vick doing much through the air in this game. The Steelers offense will be carried by running back LeVeon Bell. More importantly, the Cardinals offense is rolling right now, and overall it is not the best timing for the Steelers to take on the Cardinals.

Replacing Charles

Jeff Haseley: Put me in the camp that believes Knile Davis will eventually win this role. It wasn't long ago that Davis was considered an RB1 fantasy play when Charles was out, and that was with Reid as head coach. Could West be the guy to earn substantial playing time? Sure, but at least we know what Davis is capable of and that Reid has relied on him before with a successful result. I don't love either of these backs, but if I had to guess who would perform the best when called upon, it would be Davis. I am not targeting either back this week for cash games. In GPPs, I may take a chance on West, because it looks like he has the lead on the role at this time. This week the percentages are in his favor, but an injury or ineffectiveness will change that momentum over to Davis quickly.

Enjoy the article. It's a long read, but it's well worth the time. These are some of the greatest minds fantasy football (and especially Daily Fantasy Football) has to offer. I make a lot of my own DraftKings lineup decisions based on how this group of individuals answers my questions. Enjoy!
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Millionaire Maker Week 5 Recap

My weekly recap of the DraftKings Millionaire Maker Tournament is now available for subscribers here.

My major takeaways from digging through the top lineups and crunching the numbers was:

1. All of the value in Week 5 was at RB and TE and very little value was there at the WR position. The average scoring running back and tight end outscored even the highest scoring wide receiver on the Top 20 rosters. Looking forward to Week 6, it looks like we may see the phenomenon repeat itself. There is a whole lot of value at RB. Matt Forte, Arian Foster, Demarco Murray, Dion Lewis, Chris Ivory and Charcandrick West are amongst the running backs that look to be priced favorably. Meanwhile, the top wide receivers (with the possible exception of DeAndre Hopkins) all appear to be overpriced.

2. For the third straight week, it was obvious that you had to nail your TE selection to finish near the top of the standings. Every single top finisher had either Gary Barnridge or Antonio Gates. I'm at a bit of a loss as to how to approach the position however. If you feel like there is a lot of luck involved (as Barnridge's touchdown catch with his knees perhaps indicates), maybe the solution is simply to fire up multiple entries into the Millionaire Maker with different tight ends in each. Or perhaps the top plays should have been obvious in hindsight and it is worth spending extra time each week at the all important tight end position. (Maybe I'm just venting a bit here as someone who owned way too many shares of Martellus Bennett and Charles Clay in Week 5?)

3. It was the lowest scoring week at Wide Receiver in the entire year and a half that I've been tracking  this tournament. Nobody topped 29 points at the position. With Odell Beckham, Jr. and Julio Jones banged up, Antonio Brown missing Ben Roethlisberger, and Demaryius Thomas/Calvin Johnson both dealing with major issues at quarterback, perhaps it is time to stop paying up for high-priced WR1s until somebody re-emerges as a stronger every week option. Or perhaps DeAndre Hopkins is quietly emerging as the WR1 to own over the next few weeks? Is any wide receiver more of a lock for double-digit targets than Hopkins right now?