Championship Round Cost Efficiency Breakdown

Check in with the Championship Round Cost Efficiency Breakdown before lineup lock. On a tiny slate with two volatile matchups, you'll need to create your edge by squeezing every drop of delicious value-nectar from what DraftKings' pricing algorithm has drummed up. Find out which team's wideouts are the likeliest cheat code, which aged quarterback to avoid, and which bottom-salaried running back has a flicker of potential to lead his team in touches.

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Cost Efficiency Breakdown, Divisional Playoffs

Don't let the slate start up without checking in on the Divisional Round Cost Efficiency Breakdown. Find the hidden gems and otherwise shrewd plays, salary-wise, for the NFL weekend.

Here's a sample breakdown:

It’s hard to go wrong choosing between Michael Floyd and John Brown, two elite big-play threats on the league’s most dynamic offense. But the week’s largest Vegas scoring projection deserves representation in your lineup, and luckily for us, both come very cheaply (either would need 15 points to cash). Floyd, the safer and preferred cash game target, closed the season with an absolute flourish, topping 100 yards five times from Weeks 10-16 and building a moderately solid volume outlook (eight targets per game over that span), as well. Brown hasn’t been breaking open downfield much, but he’s been an elite red zone producer of late, finding the end zone in each of the Cardinals’ last three meaningful games. He deserves real GPP consideration, but doesn’t look cash-ready.

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Cost Efficiency on Wild Card Weekend

Don't let your contests kick off before you've hit the Wild Card Cost Efficiency Breakdown. It'll guide you through the weekend's true value plays, like this guy:

Kansas City has all but sworn off throwing the ball in the red zone (just seven attempts over the past four weeks). That means their backs, specifically short-yardage option Spencer Ware, are always firmly in play for GPPs. Ware is a bit overpriced for his floor – he does split touches with a more talented Charcandrick West – but a game favoring Kansas City would suggest plenty of rushes and red zone trips to go around. If he can find the end zone twice against Houston, Ware would only need 25-35 scrimmage yards to reach GPP value. And he finished the season with a TD flourish, scoring six times over his final eight games.

Get that and every other cost-based value at the link above, and stick around for the rest of our comprehensive weekly DraftKings coverage!

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Wildcard Weekend Contrarian Plays

The weekly column I wrote for Footballguys subscribers this season focused on why projecting ownership percentage in large field GPPs is important, which players to target based on low ownership, and which highly owned players shouldn’t be faded despite their popularity.

For playoff contests, I felt the need to do things a bit differently. The concept of ownership percentage takes on added importance when constructing lineups on a four game slate. With the player pool so thin, even casual entrants can easily construct a roster made up of the most reliable and/or highest upside players. Whereas on a 16 game slate these “chalk plays” (think Antonio Brown this week) might be around 30% owned, on a short slate we can expect them to appear on 50%-70% of rosters (or more).

More so than in a normal GPP, missing out on just one highly-owned player who has a big day will dig your team a hole too deep to climb out of. And even if you have that player in your lineup, they’ll be lighting it up for nearly every other team in the tournament. So while getting a 40 point game from Antonio Brown this week is great, it will only keep you afloat -- not get you to the top of the standings. If you want to have any shot at a deep run in tournaments this week, you’ll need to surround your core of chalk plays with at least two under-the-radar players (think 20% owned or less on such a short slate) and probably more depending on the size of the field.

If you’re familiar with GPP game theory, none of this is earth shattering. But since the importance of hitting on low-owned players is amplified in playoff contests, that’s where I want to place my focus over the next few weeks. Here is one high variance option from each team that can help separate your rosters from the pack:

Packers @ Redskins

James Jones - $4,100

When I began researching the slate, Jones jumped out to me as a glaring value. Unfortunately, after jumping on some Roundtable discussions with the other Footballguys (namely John Lee) it became apparent I wasn’t alone, which leaves me guessing Jones will be a more popular play than I first anticipated. That being said, I’m still going out of my way to roster him. Jones has quietly become Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver over the last four weeks (not coincidentally since Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties). He leads Green Bay in target market share (27.97%), red zone targets (six), receiving yards (279), and yards per reception (14.7) in that span. Football Outsiders ranks Washington 30th against WR2s in their pass defense DVOA metric, and Jones will run the majority of his routes against undrafted free agent rookie Quentin Dunbar, who Pro Football Focus grades as the third-worst cornerback on the slate. Washington has been burned for pass plays of 20+ yards 58 times this season (sixth-most in the league), while Jones’ 18 receptions of 20+ yards rank him 11th among pass catchers.

Pierre Garcon - $4,200

I’m planning on having low exposure to all Washington players, so coming up with one to write about was a struggle. My gut tells me Kirk Cousins will come crashing down to earth against a strong Green Bay defense and Aaron Rodgers will right the ship (to a degree), leading Green Bay to an easy win in Washington. Jordan Reed will get a lot of traffic based on his recent usage and production (rightfully so), but if he’s 50% owned, going in a different direction at tight end is an easy way to differentiate from the field. Garcon is no great shakes in this matchup, but he’s second on the team in targets over the last four weeks and has caught a touchdown in each of the last three games (two of which came on six red zone targets). As of Thursday, Sam Shields (Green Bay’s best cornerback by a wide margin) was surprisingly still in the league’s concussion protocol after missing three consecutive games. If Shields is once again forced to sit, Garcon becomes far more interesting.

Seahawks @ Vikings

Jermaine Kearse - $3,300

Russell Wilson is likely to be right there with Ben Roethlisberger as most popular quarterback this weekend, but Kearse will check in behind both Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett in terms of ownership. Not only is Kearse the cheapest and most unique way to gain exposure to Wilson, he might be the best option outside of Baldwin. Kearse and Lockett’s target share and fantasy point totals are nearly identical over the last four games. Since Week 12, Kearse has failed to score double digit fantasy points only once, and on the season he’s the second-most frequently targeted Seahawks receiver in the red zone. There’s clear risk here as Kearse was held completely out of the box score in his last meeting with Minnesota, but the Vikings have made a habit of allowing big games to complementary wide receivers in recent weeks, and Kearse is coming in hot. Out of all the players listed in this article, I’ll have the heaviest exposure to Kearse and James Jones.

Kyle Rudolph - $3,500

I’m expecting Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and Travis Kelce to account for about 80% of the tight end ownership, which means you’d really be cutting the chalk with Rudolph. While Rudolph might not have a high ceiling (and definitely has a scary low floor), he does have touchdown potential which is all you can ask for at his price and projected ownership. The Vikings may not pass much in the red zone, but when they do Teddy Bridgewater looks to Rudolph first. Rudolph’s 41% red zone target market share ranks fifth-highest in the NFL (albeit on only 11 targets), and four out of his five touchdowns this season have come in home games. Seattle ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA vs. tight ends and have allowed eight touchdowns to the position (10th-most in the league), so the matchup is favorable. I’m also expecting Seattle to put up plenty of points in this game, which should force Bridgewater to pass more frequently than usual. Jerick McKinnon also makes sense as a low exposure dart throw for Minnesota on the chance Adrian Peterson re-injures his back or ankle early in the game.

Chiefs @ Texans

Albert Wilson - $3,500

The case for Wilson is admittedly a little thin, but outside of Jeremy Maclin (who will be high-owned in a terrible matchup) and Travis Kelce (who isn’t a chalk play, but won’t be low-owned either), it’s tough to find a player on the Chiefs worth rostering. Wilson has at least been involved in Kansas City’s game plan recently. His target share over the last four weeks is above 20%, which has worked out to between four and six looks per game. We also know he’ll be on the field, as his snap count hasn’t dipped below 70% in any of the past four games. Wilson has played well this season (relative to the Chiefs run-first offense), and he flashed the 18 point ceiling we’re looking for at his price tag in Week 14 against San Diego. His primary one-one-one matchup with Texans cornerback Kevin Johnson is winnable -- according to Pro Football Focus, Johnson has allowed the second most fantasy points per route defended on this week’s slate. I expect Alex Smith to be forced to pass more than usual for the Chiefs to win on the road, which would lead to extra opportunity for all of Kansas City’s pass catchers.

Jaelen Strong - $3,000

The intriguing rookie out of Arizona State has begun to show up in box scores, with double-digit fantasy point performances in two of his last three games. The bump in production can be attributed to increased playing time due to recent injuries to Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington. Shorts should make it back this week, but Washington was still limited to side work at Thursday’s practice after suffering a hip injury in Week 17. If Washington doesn’t play, Strong will work opposite DeAndre Hopkins on the perimeter where the Chiefs have been burned by wide receivers for the majority of the season. Four game slates rarely require entrants to drop down to minimum salary plays when constructing lineups, which will keep Strong hidden from the masses. His upside is mostly theoretical at this point, but Strong goes 6’2’’, 217 lbs, showed off elite athleticism at the scouting combine, and has a multi-touchdown NFL game to his credit despite playing limited reps all season. If Washington suits up, it’s probably best to forget Strong. Alfred Blue is the least expensive source of 15-20 touches on the slate and makes sense as another against the grain option from the Texans, if you trust their defense will dominate Kansas City at home.

Steelers @ Bengals

Marvin Jones - $3,700

Those looking to invest in Bengals pass catchers will be shooting for A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, which should leave Jones a forgotten man. Since A.J. McCarron took over as the Bengals starter, Jones and Green have each seen an identical 26 targets. Jones’ target share will likely dip a bit with Eifert’s return to the lineup, but he’ll still enjoy favorable coverage as the Steelers focus on stopping Green (who has a history of destroying them). Something similar to the 6-61-0 line Jones posted when the Bengals and Steelers met in Week 14 is well within his range of outcomes, and the upside is there for more against a Pittsburgh team that led the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers.

Martavis Bryant - $5,600

I’ll be very interested to see Bryant’s ownership in tournaments this weekend. The limited number of available wide receiver options guarantees he won’t be super low-owned, but how many entrants will be willing to take the risk on a player with a combined two receptions and four yards over his last two games? Here’s hoping recency bias is a factor because I plan on having about 35% exposure to Bryant. A high total point ceiling is all you should be concerned with when constructing lineups this week (as opposed to traditional point per dollar value at each roster spot). Bryant has a proven ceiling as high as any receiver’s on this slate, and that includes Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. I loved hearing Bryant get called out by Ben Roethlisberger this week and after Bryant accepted his quarterback’s challenge, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t motivated to bounceback. One thing’s for certain -- Bryant has the physical tools to dominate Cincinnati cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. Heath Miller’s two best fantasy games both came against the Bengals this season, if you’re looking for a true contrarian play from the Steelers.

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Week 17 Cost Efficiency Breakdown

As always, I took a long look at Week 17 from a cost-efficiency standpoint - who actually produces the most value for your DFS dollar? You'll find the full breakdown here, but take a peek at one of the week's top value plays:

As always, there’s little downside and monstrous upside in Julio Jones, who draws the Saints for Week 17. New Orleans has gotten better cornerback play of late, with youngster Devin Breaux shining in coverage, but we still have to consider Jones the favorite there. Needing 25.5 to cash, Jones is a bit of a stretch in a meaningless game against a talented young cornerback. But his talent level and deep-seeded involvement in his offense ensure that matchup is never a real concern. After all, he notched 140% of that 25.5 cash marker against Josh Norman and the suffocating Panthers last week, and 110% of it against the Vontae Davis-led Colts in Week 11.

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Week 16 Red Zone Receiving Outlook

Just like last week, let's take a run through the best red zone receiving outlooks Week 16 has to offer, according to my projection model. The goal, as always, is to identify the guys with the best chances of finding the end zone today and tomorrow. (Check last week's entry at the link for an explanation of the factors that spit out these expectations.)

WIDE RECEIVER

	Gm	TmRZAt	RZTg	RZTD	RZTDPj
G. Tate	4	24	9	5	1.08
D. Baldwin	4	22	11	6	1.00
J. Maclin	4	9	5	3	0.95
E. Decker	4	24	11	3	0.88
B. Marshall	4	24	6	3	0.80
A. Brown	4	22	7	3	0.75
C. Johnson	4	24	6	3	0.72
A. Robinson	4	24	5	3	0.67
S. Watkins	4	12	4	2	0.56
T.Y. Hilton	4	23	4	2	0.55
D. Thomas	4	21	7	3	0.51
M. Wheaton	4	22	7	2	0.50

Some Observations

• Golden Tate is atop this list on the back of some good red zone usage, but also an unusually high success rate. The league average for red zone targets that become TDs in just a hair over 20%, and Tate has converted 56% over the last four weeks. Historically speaking, that's not really Tate's strength. There's a lot to like about Tate, but these results can skew his GPP appeal. He's more of a cash option than one from whom we can confidently expect a wild, multi-TD game.
• This chart assumes Doug Baldwin will suit up and play a full complement of snaps. If that doesn't happen, expect Tyler Lockett, who's just off this list at 0.41 TDs, to see an uptick. He's already operating in an offense that much prefers to throw near the goal line; if he's the No. 1 wideout for the day, he's chalk you need to follow at just $4,500.
• I like Michael Floyd as a GPP idea, but I can't help but note that he hasn't been a red zone presence at all over the last month. That's why I prefer John Brown, who's seen more looks from inside the 20 over that span than Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald combined.
• It's odd that Dorial Green-Beckham has yet to see a red zone target during his four-game mini-breakout. But the imposing touchdown maker has to break out at some point. If he can paid a TD with 4-5 basic receptions, he'll hold tournament value.

TIGHT END

	Gm	TmRZAt	RZTg	RZTD	RZTDPj
R. Gronkowski	4	9	3	2	0.69
D. Walker	4	11	4	2	0.64
J. Thomas	4	35	7	3	0.61
G. Barnidge	4	31	8	3	0.57
B. Watson	4	30	11	2	0.51
W. Tye	4	25	4	2	0.42

Some Observations

• Yes, you want Rob Gronkowski.
• Gary Barnidge has an awful matchup with a Kansas City defense that can erase a TE, but he's a legitimate touchdown machine who should benefit from game flow. And Johnny Manziel has been throwing like a maniac in the red zone.
• Two red zone giants in theory, Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph, have disappointed mightily in the TD column of late. But I like Rudolph's outlook against a Giants defense that struggles with tight ends, and Kelce is the kind of gifted option that can be squeezed into just about any GPP.

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Week 16 Cost Efficiency Breakdown

Don't miss the Week 16 Cost Efficiency Breakdown, overflowing with DFS productivity nuggets like this one:

Doug Baldwin is still on the outer edges of value, but probably not while dinged up with a pesky hamstring ailment. He may even miss the game entirely. In any case, teammate Tyler Lockett is the preferred option by a mile. He costs $2,200 less despite likely similar usage – his respectable 19.8% target share over the last four games is likely to grow with Baldwin limited or out. Besides, Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson is adept at funneling the ball to secondary targets.

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Short-Yardage and Touchdown Breakdown, Week 16

Since we crave touchdowns to swing our DFS tournaments, let's take a look through the top short-yardage (inside the 10-yard line) rushing projections for Week 16, based on the projection model I discussed last week:

	Gm	TmSYRu	OpSYRu	SYRu	SYTD	SYTDPj
J. Bell	4	6	22	4	2	1.03
D. Johnson	3	4	9	3	2	0.85
D. Williams	4	11	2	9	4	0.67
M. Forte	4	8	11	6	2	0.58
T. Gurley	4	6	7	5	2	0.53
S. Ware	2	4	8	2	1	0.50
J. Hill	4	18	3	13	3	0.50
T. Hightower	2	7	13	5	1	0.49
A. Peterson	4	5	4	3	2	0.46
I. Crowell	4	8	5	8	2	0.43
A. Blue	4	2	5	2	1	0.40

Some Observations

• DeAngelo Williams looks to me like the easiest and safest back on the board, and the bulk of that confidence comes from his goal line capabilities. No RB has taken more short-yardage rushes over their last four representative games. And as a 10-point favorite, Williams is most likely looking at a game script that blows squarely his way. He'll be involved through all four quarters, and on all levels of the field.
• Joique Bell may be back to relevance; he's the clear short-yardage preference in Detroit, and the Week 16 matchup is just golden. Over the last month, the 49ers have faced more short-yardage runs than any other team by a mile; opponents just can't help stumbling into the red zone. Bell isn't a strong bet for yardage, but his multi-touchdown upside makes him a deep GPP option.
• Charcandrick West is the trendy Week 16 play, but Spencer West looks like a great TD bet if his snaps aren't limited by injury. He's been explosive up and down the field and successful near the goal line; there's real two-TD upside in a run-based offense looking at a very positive script outlook.
• Some of the week's trendiest picks lack the strong goal line usage we crave. David Johnson has yet to see a rush from inside the 10 through his three starts. Neither of the Patriots' co-hammer backs (Brandon Bolden and Joey Iosefa) took a goal line carry last week, and Steven Jackson has been added to the mix, so have fun diagnosing that. And without Marshawn Lynch, Seattle has eschewed running the ball near the end zone, so we don't know how to valuate its RB options either. But all of that uncertainty makes me appreciate James White all the more - he's one of the few high-usage passing down backs who's also involved in the red zone ground game.

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DraftKings Value Plays for Week 16

Looking to maximize value for your DraftKings lineup this weekend? The staff at Footballguys.com is willing to help! Check out the DraftKings Week 16 Value Plays for all the help that you need.

Here are a couple sample picks:

Will Grant - David Johnson is still a great play at RB for cash games, even though his salary continues to climb. He's taken over the primary RB duties in Arizona and they are playing strong with a shot at home field advantage in the playoffs. He's a great play at home this week against the Packers.

Chad Parsons - The Browns have allowed the fifth-most points to opposing wide receivers over the last three weeks. Jeremy Maclin is reasonably-priced outside the top-20 receivers and has nine or more targets each of the last four games. 

Chris Feery - Randle has found the end zone for two consecutive weeks and will see a healthy bump in targets with the absence of Odell Beckham Jr. If he takes advantage of the opportunity in front of him, he could be one of the steals of the week with his low salary.

Justin Howe - This is still way too cheap. (Ryan) Fitzpatrick has been excellent at feeding his elite wideouts, especially in the red zone, and he projects to solid attempt and scoring totals in a mini-shootout with the Patriots

Check out the full article here


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Christmas Eve DraftKings Sample Lineups for Tonight

Open your presents from Footballguys.com a little early with our Thursday Sample Lineups for Draftkings.com Cash Games (50/50 and Double Up).

Here's an appetizer to start out your lineups right:

QBS: Alex Smith and David Carr

RBS: Danny Woodhead and DeAngelo Williams

WRs: Jeremy Maclin, Doug Baldwin and Michael Floyd

TEs: Jordan Reed and Antonio Gates

Def: Titans and Steelers.

Don't miss out on a chance to put some extra cash in your stocking with DraftKings Christmas Eve contests.

Check out the other Christmas week DraftKings content that we have from Footballguys.com


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First Look at Week 16 Motivation

In the final two weeks of the season, figuring out which teams will be most motivated to win and which will consider resting players can be key to fantasy success. Here's an early look at what is at stake in each game on the Week 16 Slate:

San Diego at Oakland: Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs and just playing out the string. Oakland's ascending young team should be more motivated than the beat-up Chargers.

Washington at Philadelphia: This game should have a playoff atmosphere and both teams have everything to play for. Washington will clinch the NFC East with a win. Philadelphia needs to beat Washington and then the Giants in Week 17 to clinch the division.

New England at NY Jets: The Jets are fighting for their playoff lives and would face an uphill battle should they lose to the Patriots. The Patriots can clinch the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs with a win in either of their final two games.

Houston at Tennessee: Tennessee has long been eliminated and could end up with the first overall pick. Houston will be highly motivated however as a win would clinch the AFC South title. A loss and Houston would potentially face a win-or-go-home matchup with Jacksonville in Week 17.

Cleveland at Kansas City: Cleveland has nothing to play for but Mike Pettine is coaching for his job and Johnny Manziel may be playing for his as well. Kansas City badly needs to keep winning to stay ahead of the Jets and Steelers in the Wild Card race. The Chiefs also could steal the division away from the Broncos should Denver slip up once more and the Chiefs win out.

Indianapolis at Miami: Indianapolis needs to win out and get plenty of help to make the playoffs (Houston losses to Tennessee and Jacksonville). Miami has already been eliminated.

San Francisco at Detroit: Both teams are playing for pride at this point.

Dallas at Buffalo: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention and motivation could be hard to muster.

Chicago at Tampa Bay: Neither team has anything to play for.

Carolina at Atlanta: Carolina still needs one more win (or an Arizona loss) to clinch the top seed in the NFC. A win at Atlanta would allow the Panthers to rest their stars in Week 17. Atlanta maintains very slim playoff hopes. In addition to winning out, the Falcons would need a number of other games to go their way (including a Rams upset of the Seahawks and a Giants upset of the Vikings).

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The Steelers are well-positioned to make the playoffs with only trips to Baltimore and Cleveland standing between them and a top-five seed in the AFC. Baltimore would love nothing more than to play spoiler against their hated rival and should be up for this game (at least to start).

Jacksonville at New Orleans: The Saints are eliminated and Jacksonville is hanging on by a thread. A win by either Houston or Indianapolis in the early games would officially eliminate the Jaguars from the AFC South race.

Saint Louis at Seattle: The Seahawks will be motivated to keep winning to stay ahead of the Vikings for the 5th seed in the NFC. A trip to take on the NFC East champ is much more appealing than a likely trip to Lambeau to face the Packers in the first round. Saint Louis is eliminated from contention.

Green Bay at Arizona: Arizona needs to beat either Green Bay or Seattle in the final two weeks to to lock up a first round bye. A win would allow Arizona to rest players in Week 17. The NFC North will likely come down to the Week 17 matchup between the Vikings and Packers regardless of the outcome of this game (assuming Minnesota handles the Giants). However, Green Bay could keep their hopes of a bye alive with an upset in Week 16. If Green Bay falls behind by multiple scores, it's possible they'd rest some injured players in the second half to prepare for the big Week 17 matchup.

New York Giants at Minnesota: The Giants may be eliminated before kickoff if Washington wins. Or they could be very much alive in the NFC East race should Philadelphia win. For Minnesota, this matchup could be almost meaningless should the afternoon games go as expected. The Vikings should clinch a playoff spot before kickoff. Regardless, they should be motivated with the game at home and the possibility of favorable seeding slightly increased with a win.

Cincinnati at Denver: Another game that should have a playoff atmosphere, both teams will have a lot at stake. Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North and a first-round bye with a victory. Denver would put itself in the driver's seat for a first round bye with the win. The Broncos still have work to do just to make the playoffs and have a lot at stake in the final two weeks.

Week 15 Cost Efficiency Breakdown

Don't miss the Week 15 Cost Efficiency Breakdown, for a tour through the true value plays - expensive and cheap, high-ceiling and high-floor - within the weekend's slate. Here's an exclusive Cracking DraftKings sneak peek:

·         David Johnson will be in every cash lineup of mine that doesn’t feature Carson Palmer. He’s a near-every-down back in arguably the league’s best offense, facing an opponent that’s allowed 96+ rushing yards in 11 of 13 games, including the last four. I’d like to see some red zone usage, but I’m confident enough that the matchup will allow him to rack up 20+ touches. And Johnson is explosive enough in both aspects of the offense to create fireworks from that.

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Red zone Receiving Outlook, Week 15

Yesterday, I ran through the top short-yardage rushing situations for Week 15 to identify the best bets for touchdowns. Let's take a similar look at Week 15's red zone passing outlook, with an eye on receivers who over over- or underwhelming in the red zone - and who'll find themselves in the end zone this weekend.

Note that the figures on the tables carry the same meanings as yesterday, with two exceptions: (1) TmRZAtPj refers to the number of red zone passes I expect that player's team to throw; and (2) I track targets from within the entire red zone, not just inside the 10. The numbers are gathered from each player's last 1-4 representative games (again, see yesterday's post for details).

WIDE RECEIVER

	Gm	TmRZAt	TRZAtPj	RZTar	RZTD	10TDPrj
Doug Baldwin	4	21	5.4	9	4	1.31
Golden Tate	4	23	5.1	9	3	1.04
Calvin Johnson	4	23	5.1	6	3	0.94
Allen Robinson	4	28	6.1	8	3	0.79
DeAndre Hopkins	4	17	5.3	3	2	0.60
Jeremy Maclin	4	12	3.3	5	2	0.60
Antonio Brown	4	27	5.4	8	3	0.50
Tyler Lockett	2	13	5.4	2	1	0.48
T.Y. Hilton	4	27	6.5	4	2	0.45
John Brown	4	19	5.7	5	1	0.40
Sammy Watkins	4	11	3.7	2	1	0.39
Brandon LaFell	4	18	5.2	4	0	0.37
Michael Crabtree	4	14	3.3	3	1	0.34
Ted Ginn Jr.	4	24	5.2	3	2	0.33

• The bottom will eventually fall out, and the Seahawks Passing Parade will wind down. But the red zone connection between Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin has been so strong that the numbers want us to bank on it again. It makes sense against the Joe Haden-less Browns, and Baldwin is still priced a bit below his ceiling, so indulge for one more week. By this time Sunday afternoon, he'll be either priced out of his stratosphere or back on earth in a cheaper pool of boom-or-bust WR3s.
• Calvin Johnson should be one of the chalkiest plays of the week, and I'm fine with it - he projects to 0.94 short TDs, the third-best outlook of anyone. But he'll draw a lot of doubling, and Golden Tate looks poised to benefit, even in the red zone. Note that Tate's projection is skewed a bit by a wild, dive-for-the-deflection touchdown grab from Week 12. It was an impressive play, of course, but it doesn't give us the best picture of Tate as a red zone threat. Take it out of this equation, and Tate would slot behind Allen Robinson at a 0.69-TD projection. That's still high, but it's not the top-rung number it appears to be. Tate is still an easy top-10 value option with or without the nutty catch.
• Robinson isn't on a single roster of mine; his date with Desmond Trufant really dings his outlook. He's been awesome in the red zone, but I'm not paying $7,600 - more than I'd be charged for Alshon Jeffery - to hope Robinson can beat an elite cornerback that's allowed just one TD pass all year.
• Surprisingly, Odell Beckham, Jr. slots 35th out of 43 in red zone TD projection, at just 0.17. The Giants have spread the wealth near the goal line, and while Beckham has dominated the ball everywhere else, he's been just another face in the red zone (just four of 23 team targets). A matchup with All-World Josh Norman won't boost that outlook.

TIGHT END

	Gm	TmRZAt	TmRZAtPj	RZTar	RZTD	10TDPrj
Gary Barnidge	3	27	7.1	7	2	0.53
Julius Thomas	4	28	6.1	6	2	0.44
Antonio Gates	4	21	4.8	4	2	0.41
Jordan Reed	4	7	2.5	3	1	0.36
Rob Gronkowski1	4	16	5.2	3	1	0.33
Zach Miller	4	15	4.8	2	2	0.29
Zach Ertz	4	13	4.0	2	1	0.28
Delanie Walker	4	10	2.5	3	1	0.25
Travis Kelce	4	12	3.3	2	1	0.25

• Antonio Gates has been ignored by DFS players lately - though not exactly by Philip Rivers. He's drawn a healthy 20.9% of team targets over his last four games, and nearly the same number in the red zone, A few touchdown-less weeks have torpedoed his ownership, but he'll likely lead the Chargers' high-volume passing game in usage, both in and out of the red zone. He projects to 0.41 touchdowns today, but in such an injury-depleted offense, that looks like a floor expectation rather than a ceiling one.
• Gary Barnidge has been one of the league's most successful red zone targets all year, and it's carried over to his connection with Johnny Manziel. Over Manziel's three recent starts, Barnidge has drawn seven of the team's 27 red zone targets, scoring twice. The Seahawks field a fine defense1, as you know, but covering TEs has long been a weakness. Barnidge has as strong of a Week 15 ceiling as anyone not named Gronkowski.

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Short-yardage Breakdown, Week 15

My goal in chasing fantasy success has always been evaluating touchdown potential. Touchdowns simply swing contests - especially GPPs - in a way that yardage can't, and they're actually more predictable than many think. Studying the trends and suggested probabilities in the short-yardage (inside the 10-yard line) game gives us a leg up in piling up points.

A quick primer on the numbers you're looking at: over the span of the last 1-4 representative games*, I leverage a running back's

• team's rushes from inside the 10-yard line (Tm10Ru)
• own rushes and touchdowns from inside the 10 (10Ru & 10TD)
• projected rushing touchdowns from inside the 10, based upon the above numbers and defensive numbers for his opponent (10TDPrj)

* A representative game is one in which a player played the same role for all or most of a game that he's likely to play this week. We obviously don't care how many carries Tim Hightower was getting when he was third on the depth chart.

This data has been a pretty accurate measure of touchdown potential, and it gives us a good picture of

Since many RBs need a touchdown to reach cash or GPP value, it's a helpful tool in separating the more dependable scorers from the guys who'll need huge yardage totals to produce for you.

Here's a breakdown of Week 15's top probabilities at finding the end zone:

	Gm	Tm10Ru	10Ru	10TD	10TDPrj
Adrian Peterson	4	4	4	3	0.90
Tim Hightower	1	3	2	1	0.83
Jeremy Hill	4	15	8	3	0.79
Matt Forte	3	8	6	2	0.70
James White	4	8	4	2	0.53
D. Williams	4	15	11	3	0.51
Shaun Draughn	4	2	2	1	0.50
Ryan Mathews	3	12	4	2	0.50
Isaiah Crowell	4	7	7	2	0.47
Latavius Murray	4	10	6	2	0.46
Alfred Blue	4	4	4	1	0.43
Eddie Lacy	3	5	2	1	0.42

• Adrian Peterson has dominated this category for much of the year, thanks to 22 rushes from inside the 10 as the dominant cog in a successful offense. But he's struggled to spin that opportunity into gold - among backs with 15+ attempts, he's turned in the third-lowest touchdown rate (22.7%). It's trending up, though, at 75% over the last four weeks. As a favorite against a porous Bears defense, it would be an upset if Peterson didn't find the end zone; I'd set the over/under at 1.5.
• The amount of rushing opportunity near the goal line in Cincinnati is just nutty, hence Jeremy Hill's sparkling TD outlook. Assuming A.J. McCarron can keep the offense afloat against a pitiful defense, Hill should find himself taking several handoffs from in close.
• There's really no backfield behind Williams, so he's as every-down as they come, and his dominance carries over into the red zone. The Bengals are tied with the Steelers in short-yardage rushes over their last four games, but DeAngelo Williams stands alone with 11 of his own. The Broncos corral rushing yardage exceptionally well, but aren't immune to touchdowns (13 allowed on the year) and receiving production from the backfield. That matchup could turn high-scoring and high-volume, so Williams is an important piece to consider.
• Don't overvalue James White's rushing role, even without LeGarrette Blount on board. But Brandon Bolden profiles much better as a short-yardage back, and the Patriots prefer to throw near the goal line anyway. White could be a league-winner, but it won't come from short TDs.
• If we look at the opposite end of the spectrum, we see a troublesome hole in the outlook of value poster boy David Johnson - he projects to just 0.02 short TDs. Over his two starts, Johnson is yet to take a rush from inside the 10 - he was pulled for Stepfan Taylor for the Cardinals' only attempt. It's less of a concern, however, when we note that he saw three second-half runs from there against the 49ers three weeks ago. He's bound to get back toward the mean soon, and as a favorite in a high-volume matchup, this looks like a solid time to expect it.

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DraftKings Sunday Games Roundtable - Week 15

This week's discussion focused on punt plays, candidates to receive the DraftKings performance bonuses for yardage, chalk plays, and tough issues facing elite wide receivers. It was a great session with the DraftKings staff and should give our readers plenty of insight heading into their contests their week.

Check out  full article here.

Thursday Morning Overlay Watch, Week 15

The $50K Play Action asks for just a $3 entry fee that will more than triple with a score in the top 5%. It's a multi-entry stab (or series of stabs) at solid money with little risk involved, and with less than 14 hours to go, it's less than 50% full.

One of my favorite GPPs, the $70K Slant, is less than half full. A finish within the top 7.5% will more than triple your $9 investment.

The Thursday Millionaire Maker SUPERSatellites aren't filling very quickly. The $1 contest is a little over 50% full, and the $3 game is less than 35% full. I prefer the latter, which will grant Millionaire Maker tickets to the top 13% of its entrants. Get in on these.

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DraftKings Lineup Construction Week 14: Results

Last week on Saturday, I walked through a Cash Lineup Construction for DraftKings.com. I entered this lineup into an actual $1 Double-Up Cash game and was happy to see that it performed pretty well. Here are the results of that lineup

Last Minute Pivot

Here is the original lineup that I entered on Saturday:

But on Sunday morning. the Saints announced that Tim Hightower would receive the bulk of the carries and that C.J. Spiller would retain his 'change of pace' status. I wrote up a quick blog suggesting that people pivot from Spiller to Hightower since they were both just $3000.  That turned out to be a smart choice because Hightower had a significantly better statline:

Spiller - 3 Carries for 2 Yards, 3 Receptions for 7 Yards. 0 TDS.  3.9 Pts on DraftKings

Hightower - 28 Carries for 85 Yards, 1 Reception for 10 Yards. 1 TD. 16.5 Pts on DraftKings

With Hightower in the lineup for me, here is how it performed: 

This lineup finished with 164.38 points. Target Points for Cash games is 150 points (3X value of the 50,000 salary). The cash line for this particular Double-Up was 143.3 pts.

This lineup clearly had some over achieving players, but here's a little more detail into why it was successful.

Players that reached 3X value:

Wilson - 6300. Target 18.9 pts. Total 32.28 pts
Hightower - 3000. Target 9 pts. Total 16.5 pts
Beckham Jr - 9100. Target 27.3 pts. Total 38.6 pts
Marshall - 7600. Target 22.8 pts. Total 27.5 pts
49ers - 2100. Target 6.3 pts Total 8 pts.

Clearly Wilson was the big boost here. His 5 Passing TD performance this week pushed him up to 5x value. Wilson would have made a great GPP play as well this week. The pivot to Hightower was a big boost. If I'd have left Spiller in the lineup, I still would have beaten the 143.3 pay line, but watching the Sunday morning news and switching to Hightower really gave me a boost. The 49er defense wasn't anything special, but their super low price of 2100 made them still a good cash play against the Browns this week. Marshall and Beckham Jr. both had over 100 receiving yards this week and both reached the end zone.

Players that did not reach 3x value

Brown - 8900. Target 26.7 pts. Total 15.7 pts
Maclin - 5500. Target 16.5 pts. Total 12.6 pts
Draughn - 4800. Target 14.4 pts. Total 7.1 pts
ASJ - 2700. Target 8.1 pts. Total 6.1 pts

Brown was the biggest let down of this lineup, but part of that was due to the big lead that Pittsburgh built in the game against he Bengals and after Andy Dalton went down, he Steelers never looked back. Ben Roethlisberger didn't have a passing TD in the game and the Steelers still put 33 points on the board. The Kansas City - San Diego game turned into a snooze fest, and although Maclin had nine targets for the day, he only turned in six receptions for 68 yards. Draughn wasn't a sexy pick by any stretch, but he should have been able to reach his target 3x based on volume. The 49ers struggled the entire game against Cleveland this weekend, and Draughn was barely able to grind out a couple points. ASJ nearly reached value, turning his second 3 reception for 31 yard day. The game script indicated that he should have performed much better against a weak New Orleans defense, but the Saints jumped out early and held Tampa in check all day. Mike Evans finished with a nearly identical stat line (3 receptions, 39 yards) so I don't feel bad about this at all. Again, at 2700, ASJ didn't need much to come through.

Overall a solid Cash lineup. I don't regret any of the picks that I made. Games don't always follow the game script, but hopefully it works out where the players super cheap like ASJ or the 49er defense, or that the player still has a high enough floor to not be a total but like Antonio Brown.

Check back this Saturday for this week's DraftKings cash lineup.



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