Week 16 Red Zone Receiving Outlook

Just like last week, let's take a run through the best red zone receiving outlooks Week 16 has to offer, according to my projection model. The goal, as always, is to identify the guys with the best chances of finding the end zone today and tomorrow. (Check last week's entry at the link for an explanation of the factors that spit out these expectations.)

WIDE RECEIVER

	Gm	TmRZAt	RZTg	RZTD	RZTDPj
G. Tate	4	24	9	5	1.08
D. Baldwin	4	22	11	6	1.00
J. Maclin	4	9	5	3	0.95
E. Decker	4	24	11	3	0.88
B. Marshall	4	24	6	3	0.80
A. Brown	4	22	7	3	0.75
C. Johnson	4	24	6	3	0.72
A. Robinson	4	24	5	3	0.67
S. Watkins	4	12	4	2	0.56
T.Y. Hilton	4	23	4	2	0.55
D. Thomas	4	21	7	3	0.51
M. Wheaton	4	22	7	2	0.50

Some Observations

• Golden Tate is atop this list on the back of some good red zone usage, but also an unusually high success rate. The league average for red zone targets that become TDs in just a hair over 20%, and Tate has converted 56% over the last four weeks. Historically speaking, that's not really Tate's strength. There's a lot to like about Tate, but these results can skew his GPP appeal. He's more of a cash option than one from whom we can confidently expect a wild, multi-TD game.
• This chart assumes Doug Baldwin will suit up and play a full complement of snaps. If that doesn't happen, expect Tyler Lockett, who's just off this list at 0.41 TDs, to see an uptick. He's already operating in an offense that much prefers to throw near the goal line; if he's the No. 1 wideout for the day, he's chalk you need to follow at just $4,500.
• I like Michael Floyd as a GPP idea, but I can't help but note that he hasn't been a red zone presence at all over the last month. That's why I prefer John Brown, who's seen more looks from inside the 20 over that span than Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald combined.
• It's odd that Dorial Green-Beckham has yet to see a red zone target during his four-game mini-breakout. But the imposing touchdown maker has to break out at some point. If he can paid a TD with 4-5 basic receptions, he'll hold tournament value.

TIGHT END

	Gm	TmRZAt	RZTg	RZTD	RZTDPj
R. Gronkowski	4	9	3	2	0.69
D. Walker	4	11	4	2	0.64
J. Thomas	4	35	7	3	0.61
G. Barnidge	4	31	8	3	0.57
B. Watson	4	30	11	2	0.51
W. Tye	4	25	4	2	0.42

Some Observations

• Yes, you want Rob Gronkowski.
• Gary Barnidge has an awful matchup with a Kansas City defense that can erase a TE, but he's a legitimate touchdown machine who should benefit from game flow. And Johnny Manziel has been throwing like a maniac in the red zone.
• Two red zone giants in theory, Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph, have disappointed mightily in the TD column of late. But I like Rudolph's outlook against a Giants defense that struggles with tight ends, and Kelce is the kind of gifted option that can be squeezed into just about any GPP.

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Red zone Receiving Outlook, Week 15

Yesterday, I ran through the top short-yardage rushing situations for Week 15 to identify the best bets for touchdowns. Let's take a similar look at Week 15's red zone passing outlook, with an eye on receivers who over over- or underwhelming in the red zone - and who'll find themselves in the end zone this weekend.

Note that the figures on the tables carry the same meanings as yesterday, with two exceptions: (1) TmRZAtPj refers to the number of red zone passes I expect that player's team to throw; and (2) I track targets from within the entire red zone, not just inside the 10. The numbers are gathered from each player's last 1-4 representative games (again, see yesterday's post for details).

WIDE RECEIVER

	Gm	TmRZAt	TRZAtPj	RZTar	RZTD	10TDPrj
Doug Baldwin	4	21	5.4	9	4	1.31
Golden Tate	4	23	5.1	9	3	1.04
Calvin Johnson	4	23	5.1	6	3	0.94
Allen Robinson	4	28	6.1	8	3	0.79
DeAndre Hopkins	4	17	5.3	3	2	0.60
Jeremy Maclin	4	12	3.3	5	2	0.60
Antonio Brown	4	27	5.4	8	3	0.50
Tyler Lockett	2	13	5.4	2	1	0.48
T.Y. Hilton	4	27	6.5	4	2	0.45
John Brown	4	19	5.7	5	1	0.40
Sammy Watkins	4	11	3.7	2	1	0.39
Brandon LaFell	4	18	5.2	4	0	0.37
Michael Crabtree	4	14	3.3	3	1	0.34
Ted Ginn Jr.	4	24	5.2	3	2	0.33

• The bottom will eventually fall out, and the Seahawks Passing Parade will wind down. But the red zone connection between Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin has been so strong that the numbers want us to bank on it again. It makes sense against the Joe Haden-less Browns, and Baldwin is still priced a bit below his ceiling, so indulge for one more week. By this time Sunday afternoon, he'll be either priced out of his stratosphere or back on earth in a cheaper pool of boom-or-bust WR3s.
• Calvin Johnson should be one of the chalkiest plays of the week, and I'm fine with it - he projects to 0.94 short TDs, the third-best outlook of anyone. But he'll draw a lot of doubling, and Golden Tate looks poised to benefit, even in the red zone. Note that Tate's projection is skewed a bit by a wild, dive-for-the-deflection touchdown grab from Week 12. It was an impressive play, of course, but it doesn't give us the best picture of Tate as a red zone threat. Take it out of this equation, and Tate would slot behind Allen Robinson at a 0.69-TD projection. That's still high, but it's not the top-rung number it appears to be. Tate is still an easy top-10 value option with or without the nutty catch.
• Robinson isn't on a single roster of mine; his date with Desmond Trufant really dings his outlook. He's been awesome in the red zone, but I'm not paying $7,600 - more than I'd be charged for Alshon Jeffery - to hope Robinson can beat an elite cornerback that's allowed just one TD pass all year.
• Surprisingly, Odell Beckham, Jr. slots 35th out of 43 in red zone TD projection, at just 0.17. The Giants have spread the wealth near the goal line, and while Beckham has dominated the ball everywhere else, he's been just another face in the red zone (just four of 23 team targets). A matchup with All-World Josh Norman won't boost that outlook.

TIGHT END

	Gm	TmRZAt	TmRZAtPj	RZTar	RZTD	10TDPrj
Gary Barnidge	3	27	7.1	7	2	0.53
Julius Thomas	4	28	6.1	6	2	0.44
Antonio Gates	4	21	4.8	4	2	0.41
Jordan Reed	4	7	2.5	3	1	0.36
Rob Gronkowski1	4	16	5.2	3	1	0.33
Zach Miller	4	15	4.8	2	2	0.29
Zach Ertz	4	13	4.0	2	1	0.28
Delanie Walker	4	10	2.5	3	1	0.25
Travis Kelce	4	12	3.3	2	1	0.25

• Antonio Gates has been ignored by DFS players lately - though not exactly by Philip Rivers. He's drawn a healthy 20.9% of team targets over his last four games, and nearly the same number in the red zone, A few touchdown-less weeks have torpedoed his ownership, but he'll likely lead the Chargers' high-volume passing game in usage, both in and out of the red zone. He projects to 0.41 touchdowns today, but in such an injury-depleted offense, that looks like a floor expectation rather than a ceiling one.
• Gary Barnidge has been one of the league's most successful red zone targets all year, and it's carried over to his connection with Johnny Manziel. Over Manziel's three recent starts, Barnidge has drawn seven of the team's 27 red zone targets, scoring twice. The Seahawks field a fine defense1, as you know, but covering TEs has long been a weakness. Barnidge has as strong of a Week 15 ceiling as anyone not named Gronkowski.

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Red zone outlook, Week 14

Remember that in fantasy football, we first chase touchdowns. Yardage is nice, but it usually doesn't pile up the fantasy points like touchdowns do. And since most touchdowns are scored from near the goal line, it's essential to get a grasp on the best red zone and short-yardage outlooks of a given week.

Here's a rundown of the Week 14 options most likely to find the end zone, based on their last four games and those of their opponents. I track passing/receiving opportunities from the red zone and rushing opportunities from inside the 10-yard line, where most touchdowns are scored. Don't worry about wild outliers - I normalize these stats to temper those bizarre one- and two-game eruptions. For example, a receiver sporting an unsustainable red zone TD rate over 45% will be capped there, and a guy scoring on just 10% of his targets will be boosted to a fair threshold of 20%.. Those outliers and unexpected happenings have their place in DFS, sure, but not in a realistic set of projections. Ultimately, each player's projected red zone touchdown projection will be spat out in the far right columns.

QUARTERBACK

	Gm	Tm RZ At	Op RZ At	RZ TD	RZ TD Proj
Blake Bortles	4	33	26	9	2.19
Jameis Winston	4	22	23	7	2.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick	4	25	22	6	2.07
Matt Hasselbeck	3	20	19	5	1.98
Cam Newton	4	24	14	10	1.88
Tyrod Taylor	4	10	32	3	1.73
Matthew Stafford	4	21	19	8	1.63
Johnny Manziel	2	20	16	2	1.52
Ben Roethlisberger	4	26	8	6	1.42
Brian Hoyer	4	19	15	7	1.38
Andy Dalton	4	13	30	4	1.34

With that remarkable volume, Bortles looks like a near-lock to generate at least 1-2 red zone scores this week. Not only has he thrown 33 passes (nine for TDs) from there over his last four games - the Colts have allowed eight TDs on 26 attempts over theirs.

The Saints' atrocious defense makes DFS stars out of any soul fortunate enough to face them, so Winston looks golden this week. The Buccaneers have been throwing more and more in the red zone, and New Orleans looks incapable of keeping anyone out of the end zone, With a two-TD projection, Winston makes for a high-upside, solid-floor QB option in the middle salary tiers and is eminently stackable with Mike Evans (or better yet, with $4,500 Vincent Jackson).

That said, I have to wonder how sustainable that is. The Panthers aren't an especially talented team at the skill positions, so their success in tight red zone situations rely largely upon Newton's accuracy and timing. That was a great bet at $6,800, but an iffy one at $7,500.

WIDE RECEIVER

	Gm	Tm RZ Att	RZ Tar	RZ TD	RZ TD Proj
Brandon Marshall	4	25	8	4	0.86
Jeremy Maclin	4	15	5	2	0.64
Demaryius Thomas	2	6	2	1	0.60
Allen Robinson	4	27	7	2	0.56
Calvin Johnson	4	21	5	3	0.55
T.Y. Hilton	3	20	4	2	0.53
Antonio Brown	4	30	8	3	0.53
Doug Baldwin	4	15	5	2	0.52
A.J. Green	4	13	3	2	0.52
Jarvis Landry	4	16	4	2	0.51
Mike Evans	3	20	4	2	0.50
Eric Decker	4	25	10	1	0.48
Kamar Aiken	2	11	4	1	0.47
Sammy Watkins	4	10	2	1	0.42

With the Jets throwing the ball like maniacs in the red zone, both their All Pro-caliber wideouts are solid-to-excellent TD option. No one sees the ball more often near the goal line than Decker, who's found the end zone in eight of his 11 games - that's amazing cash consistency. The GPP dice roll for a multi-TD line, however, is Marshall. That efficiency you see above is just remarkable, and only two teams have allowed more red zone TD passes over the last four weeks than Tennessee.

Note that these Robinson totals do not include last week; this is his recent red zone dominance even alongside Allen Hurns. Few teams throw the ball in that area more than Jacksonville, so this is actually a fair expectation going forward. Robinson's salary has really ballooned, but he's a target-hogging No. 1 wideout who's a solid bet to hit the end zone on any given week.

It's hard to find another No. 1 wideout more vultured near the end zone than Green. Tyler Eifert is a nominal part of the team's game plan prior to reaching the 20, but he sucks a lot of Andy Dalton's attention away from Green once there. Still, Green has a nice TD outlook for Week 14 - the Steelers have been the league's most passed-against team in the red zone of late.

TIGHT END

	Gm	Tm RZ At	Op RZ At	RZ TD	RZ TD Proj
Tyler Eifert	4	17	7	5	0.93
Jordan Reed	4	8	3	2	0.56
Scott Chandler	2	8	2	2	0.44
Gary Barnidge	2	20	4	1	0.38
Delanie Walker	4	8	2	1	0.34
Antonio Gates	4	22	4	2	0.32
Travis Kelce	4	15	2	1	0.29
Julius Thomas	4	27	5	1	0.28
Benjamin Watson	4	17	4	1	0.25

The model considers Eifert the odds-on favorite to lead the position in touchdowns this week. He's earned it, with a commanding 41% target share in the red zone and a league-leading five such TDs over his last four games. As a Steelers fan, I'm intimately familiar with the sight of Lawrence Timmons listlessly chasing an athletic TE up the seams and across the field. If Andy Dalton notices that mismatch near the goal line, chalk up a touchdown for Eifert.

Washington doesn't field a successful offense and simply isn't in the red zone often. That said, Reed has been the clear king of their passing game from there, drawing three of their eight targets over the last four weeks. His field-wide role is a bit up in the air, but he's an asset and a threat on the goal line.

As discussed above, the Jaguars are as pass-happy as anyone inside the 20 - I project them to 7.6 red zone targets as a team - so Thomas makes for a fair GPP chase.

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Week 11 red zone outlooks

Nothing matters to us more than the red zone, and here are some quarterback notes as I finish my Week 11 projections:

• Matthew Stafford got the message from his Week 5 mini-benching; he's looked downright competent over his last four starts. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of them, and his outlook for extending that streak is white-hot. Dating back to Week 6, only the Saints have allowed more red zone TD passes than the Raiders. Stafford himself has thrown well in the red zone, and the Lions are home underdogs. As a result, my model gives him the week's best red zone TD projection (1.78).
• Andy Dalton has been remarkably efficient in the red zone, turning 17 red zone passes into touchdowns over his last four games. That's not the kind of volume we want from our QB, and it's hard to keep up such strong efficiency. but it's a fair GPP stab in Dalton's case. He's an underrated passer and his weapons are very real, but the narratives and inching-up salary should keep his ownership pretty low.
• Over a four-game span, only Tyrod Taylor has thrown as few passes in the red zone (9) as Russell Wilson. The Seahawks offense is sputtering, keeping Wilson from short-yardage opportunity while sharing a backfield with Marshawn Lynch. And in a devastating twist of post-Super Bowl irony, the Seahawks just aren't interested in using Wilson's arm near the goal line. The Jimmy Graham connection isn't being explored, and Wilson hasn't thrown 2+ touchdowns since Week 2. That won't shift soon, especially in a divisional battle with a 49ers defense that's allowed just two red zone TD passes since Week 6.

Keep checking our running Week 11 content to synthesize all of this into your lineup process!

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Close Call Outlook for Week 4

The official touchdowns get all the glory, and rightfully so. But the near-misses can teach, or at least suggest, a lot about a player's scoring potential. Let's take a gander at some intriguing trends from bear the goal line through the young season, and maybe we can identify some uncovered touchdown potential for Week 4:

RUNNING BACKS

• Adrian Peterson's fine 2015 start could be even bigger. His red zone production has been poor, with just one touchdown on 18 rushes, including a subpar 1-for-6 mark from inside the five. And that doesn't include his 11-yard scamper last Sunday that ended at the one; fourth-stringer Zach Line vultured the touchdown on the next play. That'll even out, and Peterson remains a great weekly bet for touchdowns going forward.
• DeMarco Murray has yet to score on three carries from inside the five. That wouldn't be worrisome if Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles weren't a perfect 2-for-2 from there. Assuming Murray plays Sunday, the sledding won't get much easier against Washington's surprisingly stout run defense.
• Chris Ivory has already seen five rushes from inside the five, tied for second-most in the league, but produced just one touchdown among them. The Jets' underachieving offensive line plays a role there, and that outlook isn't great after starting RG Willie Colon's injury. Ivory remains a solid weekly play in general, but it's something to file away as we assess his week-to-week TD potential.
• Any Texan running the ball near Atlanta's goal line has a fine Week 4 outlook. The Falcons have allowed touchdowns on four of five rushes from inside the five, including three to Dallas last week.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

• Julio Jones is obviously much better than you, but what's long held him back from #1 fantasy WR status has been his weak usage and production near the goal line. But thus far in 2015, he leads the league in red zone targets and sits tied for second from inside the 10. He's not exactly dominating from there, catching two of the five balls thrown his way from there, but both have gone for touchdowns. He's a fine bet to score again in Week 4, as Houston has allowed 2-of-4 short-yardage passes to score. It's just another reason to shoehorn Jones onto whatever roster you're constructing.
• It's been a nice welcome-to-the-scene start for Tyler Eifert, who's scored on two of his three red zone targets thus far. And we all saw his two-yard touchdown that was absurdly overturned last Sunday. Roll him out with confidence against a Kansas City defense that has astoundingly allowed TDs on seven of the 10 red zone targets it's faced.
• John Brown has posted serviceable numbers thus far, but he could be a top-10 fantasy WR by now. He drew pass interference at the goal line in Week 1, which would've given him a 5-63-2 line, then drew two long penalties in Week 2 and dropped a sure touchdown last Sunday. You have to like his volume of deep balls; there's real 2013 T.Y. Hilton potential here.
• Amari Cooper has grabbed the exposure, but Michael Crabtree has settled in nicely as an underneath target for Derek Carr. He leads the Raiders with three red zone targets, and will face off this week against a Bears unit that's allowed 56% of its red zone passes to score. He makes for an interesting GPP play at just $4,600.
• Heath Miller leads all non-Gronkowski tight ends with five looks from inside the 10. He's only produced one touchdown, but looks like a strong gamble to find the end zone Thursday night at just $3,700.

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