Close Call Outlook for Week 4

The official touchdowns get all the glory, and rightfully so. But the near-misses can teach, or at least suggest, a lot about a player's scoring potential. Let's take a gander at some intriguing trends from bear the goal line through the young season, and maybe we can identify some uncovered touchdown potential for Week 4:

RUNNING BACKS

• Adrian Peterson's fine 2015 start could be even bigger. His red zone production has been poor, with just one touchdown on 18 rushes, including a subpar 1-for-6 mark from inside the five. And that doesn't include his 11-yard scamper last Sunday that ended at the one; fourth-stringer Zach Line vultured the touchdown on the next play. That'll even out, and Peterson remains a great weekly bet for touchdowns going forward.
• DeMarco Murray has yet to score on three carries from inside the five. That wouldn't be worrisome if Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles weren't a perfect 2-for-2 from there. Assuming Murray plays Sunday, the sledding won't get much easier against Washington's surprisingly stout run defense.
• Chris Ivory has already seen five rushes from inside the five, tied for second-most in the league, but produced just one touchdown among them. The Jets' underachieving offensive line plays a role there, and that outlook isn't great after starting RG Willie Colon's injury. Ivory remains a solid weekly play in general, but it's something to file away as we assess his week-to-week TD potential.
• Any Texan running the ball near Atlanta's goal line has a fine Week 4 outlook. The Falcons have allowed touchdowns on four of five rushes from inside the five, including three to Dallas last week.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

• Julio Jones is obviously much better than you, but what's long held him back from #1 fantasy WR status has been his weak usage and production near the goal line. But thus far in 2015, he leads the league in red zone targets and sits tied for second from inside the 10. He's not exactly dominating from there, catching two of the five balls thrown his way from there, but both have gone for touchdowns. He's a fine bet to score again in Week 4, as Houston has allowed 2-of-4 short-yardage passes to score. It's just another reason to shoehorn Jones onto whatever roster you're constructing.
• It's been a nice welcome-to-the-scene start for Tyler Eifert, who's scored on two of his three red zone targets thus far. And we all saw his two-yard touchdown that was absurdly overturned last Sunday. Roll him out with confidence against a Kansas City defense that has astoundingly allowed TDs on seven of the 10 red zone targets it's faced.
• John Brown has posted serviceable numbers thus far, but he could be a top-10 fantasy WR by now. He drew pass interference at the goal line in Week 1, which would've given him a 5-63-2 line, then drew two long penalties in Week 2 and dropped a sure touchdown last Sunday. You have to like his volume of deep balls; there's real 2013 T.Y. Hilton potential here.
• Amari Cooper has grabbed the exposure, but Michael Crabtree has settled in nicely as an underneath target for Derek Carr. He leads the Raiders with three red zone targets, and will face off this week against a Bears unit that's allowed 56% of its red zone passes to score. He makes for an interesting GPP play at just $4,600.
• Heath Miller leads all non-Gronkowski tight ends with five looks from inside the 10. He's only produced one touchdown, but looks like a strong gamble to find the end zone Thursday night at just $3,700.

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Week 3 Millionaire Maker recap

My weekly in-depth recap of the top lineups and strategies used in the Millionaire Maker tournament was just posted to the Footballguys.com site. Here are a few of my main takeaways from Week 3:

1. For the first time this season, you weren't necessarily rewarded for paying up for Julio Jones despite his strong performance (43.4 points). The stronger strategy was a more balanced approach at Wide Receiver that spread cap space out between three or four of the following players: Randall Cobb ($7,300), A.J. Green ($7,200), Steve Smith Sr. ($6,300), Brandon Marshall ($6,200) and Larry Fitzgerald ($5,800). These receivers in the mid-high priced tier all had strong performances and the full PPR scoring and 100-yard bonus on DraftKings makes it very rewarding to hit on three or more receivers who post big reception totals, 100+ yards and one or more touchdowns.

2. Devonta Freeman was absolutely essential to a top-scoring lineup. Freeman outscored the second-highest scoring running back by almost 15 points and 100% of the top finishers owned Freeman. It was just one of those weeks in the large-GPPs where you either picked Freeman or finished behind somebody who did.

3. The stacks are back. Nearly all of the top finishers employed the stacking strategy with Andy Dalton-A.J. Green and Cam Newton-Greg Olsen both proving to be extremely strong combinations. It was a "chalk" week with the top scoring Quarterbacks all leaning heavily on their top targets (Randall Cobb and Aaron Rodgers were also a strong combination).

Looking forward to Week 4, I am intrigued by another QB-TE stack similar to Newton-Olsen with Tyrod Taylor and Charles Clay facing a poor Giants pass defense. Their low prices allow you to roster four top receivers in the mid-high price range with huge upside. T.Y. Hilton ($6,700), Jordan Matthews ($6,600), Larry Fitzgerald ($6,500), Mike Evans ($6,400) and Jeremy Maclin ($5,800) are all in that sweet spot of pricing that led to a lot of success in Week 3. The low-priced QB-TE combination also allows you to add a pair of mid-high priced running backs, with Latavius Murray ($6,300), Mark Ingram ($6,000), Joseph Randle ($5,500) and Devonta Freeman ($5,200) all strong options to fill out a high-upside Millionaire Maker lineup in Week 4.