Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 16

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of this week's player analysis:

Zach Miller - $4,000 @ TAM (5% Owned or Less)

With Alshon Jeffery listed as doubtful,and both Martellus Bennett and Marquess Wilson on injured reserve, Jay Cutler’s receiving options have all but dried up. It leaves Miller (who has recorded 19.5 and 11.7 fantasy points in his last two games respectively) a safe bet for six to eight targets against a Lovie Smith Tampa-2 scheme that historically leaves tight ends open to roam the seam between the outside linebackers and cornerbacks. For Miller to hit his target score in GPPs (16 points), he’ll likely need to score a touchdown. Chicago hasn’t been a frequent visitor to the red zone lately, but Tampa Bay has given up the eighth-most red zone scoring attempts per game this year and Miller has seen 33% of Chicago’s red zone targets over the last four weeks.

CFB Team Totals for the Saturday Early Slate on DraftKings

Team	Spread	Game Total	Team Total	Opponent	Run	Pass
Baylor	-37	80	58.5	Iowa State	5	5
Oklahoma	-14.5	73.5	44	Texas Tech	5	4
Michigan St	-16.5	63.5	40	Indiana	4	4
Arizona	-7.5	72	39.75	Wash State	5	3
Houston	-21.5	57	39.25	Central FL	4	4
N Carolina	-17.5	61	39.25	Virginia	4	3
Toledo	-14	62.5	38.25	U Mass	4	3
Bowling Green	-14	59	36.5	Kent St	4	2
Alabama	-15.5	54	34.75	Tennessee	4	3
Wash State	7.5	72	32.25	Arizona	2	5
Clemson	-6.5	56	31.25	Miami (FL)	3	4
Nebraska	-7.5	51.5	29.5	Northwestern	3	3
Texas Tech	14.5	73.5	29.5	Oklahoma	2	4
Texas	-6.5	50.5	28.5	Kansas State	3	2
Arkansas	-5.5	51	28.25	Auburn	4	2
Pitt	-7	49	28	Syracuse	3	2
Penn State	-6.5	47	26.75	Maryland	3	2
Wisconsin	-6.5	46	26.25	Illinois	3	2
Miami (FL)	6.5	56	24.75	Clemson	3	2
U Mass	14	62.5	24.25	Toledo	1	4
Indiana	16.5	63.5	23.5	Michigan St	2	3
VA Tech	-2.5	43.5	23	Duke	2	2
Auburn	5.5	51	22.75	Arkansas	3	1
Kent St	14	59	22.5	Bowling Green	2	2
Northwestern	7.5	51.5	22	Nebraska	2	1
Kansas State	6.5	50.5	22	Texas	2	1
Virginia	17.5	61	21.75	N Carolina	1	2
Iowa State	37	80	21.5	Baylor	2	2
Syracuse	7	49	21	Pitt	1	1
Duke	2.5	43.5	20.5	VA Tech	2	1
Maryland	6.5	47	20.25	Penn State	1	1
Illinois	6.5	46	19.75	Wisconsin	1	2
Tennessee	15.5	54	19.25	Alabama	2	1
Central FL	21.5	57	17.75	Houston	1	1

5 STAR MATCHUPS

Baylor Run and Pass- Baylor is leading the nation with both 7.1 yards per rush and 12.2 yards per attempt. Iowa State's defense ranks in the bottom half nationally against both the run and the pass. With a team total of 58.5, Baylor should approach season averages of 336 rushing yards and 371 passing yards. The key to whether Baylor's offensive stars are a great play or merely a good play will be whether Iowa State's offense can do enough to force Baylor to play it's starters into the fourth quarter. 

Oklahoma State Pass- The Cowboys are averaging 308 passing yards per game and face a horrible Kansas defense allowing 311 passing yards per game. Oklahoma State could pass for 400+ yards if motivated to do so or if Kansas' offense is able to keep the game competitive into the second half. Neither of those things are guaranteed, so there is some risk in investing too heavily in the Cowboys passing offense. But also real upside as this is a major mismatch on paper and the team total points to a big day for the Oklahoma State offense.

Oklahoma Pass- The Sooners have been incredibly efficient throwing the ball (9.7 yards per attempt) and have averaged 330 passing yards per game. Tech is giving up 285 passing yards per game and a healthy 8.1 per attempt. Expect Oklahoma to pick up big chunks of yardage through the air and to exceed their season average with 350+ passing yards. Baker Mayfield and Sterling Sharpe are very nice options Saturday.

Washington State Pass- The Cougars are underdogs after a pair of impressive victories. Washington State is the most pass-heavy team in the nation (73% pass and 57 passing attempts per game) and is averaging 417 passing yards per game. Arizona is vulnerable against the pass (allowing 7 yards per attempt) and the game script points to the Cougars having to be aggressive through the air. Luke Falk, Dom Williams, and Gabe Marks should have big games. 

Arizona Run- The Wildcats rank 8th nationally with 5.8 yards per rush and are also 8th nationally with 266 rushing yards per game. Washington State is giving up a healthy 5.0 yards per rush and over 200 yards rushing per game. With a team total of ~40, expect Arizona to put up big numbers on the ground. 

Houston Run- The Cougars are 6th nationally with 282 rushing yards per game. With dual threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. and tough back Kenneth Farrow, Houston presents matchup problems for all opposing rush defenses. UCF is a slightly below average rush defense and does not have the talent to take away both Ward and Farrow, so at least one of the two should have a big game on the ground on Saturday.

Toledo Run- The Rockets are averaging 205 rushing yards per game and face a horrible UMass defense that has allowed 231 rushing yards per game. As two touchdown favorites, the game script should be favorable for Toledo to rack up 250+ rushing yards with the duo of Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson leading the way.

4 STAR MATCHUPS

Bowling Green Pass- Bowling Green leads the nation with 432 passing yards per game. Kent State has a strong defense that should be able to hold the Falcons below their season averages, but BGSU's high-paced offense and deep, talented crew of pass catchers are always going to get theirs. Matt Johnson is always a top quarterback options as is Roger Lewis at wide receiver.

Oklahoma Run- Oklahoma's offense has been very balanced with a 53-47 run-to-pass ratio. However, the Sooners are averaging a surprisingly poor 3.8 yards per rush. Texas Tech hasn't stopped anyone and have given up 5.6 yards per rush and a ridiculous 255 rushing yards per game. If Oklahoma can build an early lead through the air as expected, they should have success with Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon on the ground if they try to slow it down a little and play keep away from the high-octane Red Raiders offense. With a huge 44 point team total, a few rushing touchdowns are likely as well.

Michigan State Run and Pass- Can the Spartans avoid a hangover after their stunning upset over Michigan? If they can, the offense should have a field day against a weak Indiana defense that just gave up 55 points to Rutgers last week. Michigan State would probably like to just pound the ball on the ground with LJ Scott; against an Indiana defense giving up 4.8 yards per rush, they should have some success doing just that. However, Indiana has shown that as underdogs they like to load the box and force teams to beat them through the air. The Spartans are averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and against an incredibly young Indiana secondary, Connor Cook and Aaron Burbridge should be able to do whatever they want. 

Alabama Run- Tennessee is just an average rushing defense. Alabama has been very successfull lately running the ball with Derrick Henry and rank in the top 30 nationally with 199 rushing yards per game. As more than two touchdown favorites, Alabama's offense could become especially run-heavy if they can build an early lead.

Arkansas Run- Auburn’s giving up a ridiculous 5.5 yards per carry and 205 rushing yards per game. Arkansas has ran the ball well this season with 4.8 yards per carry in a run-heavy offense (55% run ratio). Despite the lower team total, this is a sneaky good matchup and Alex Collins should have a big game.

North Carolina Run- The Tar Heels have been a force on the ground. UNC ranks 3rd nationally with 6.8 yards per rush. Virginia is giving up 4.8 yards per rushing attempt and are unlikely to slow dual-threat quarterback Marqise Williams and running backs Elijah Hood and  T.J. Logan. With so many likely focused upon the Greg Ward Jr., Seth Russell and some of the other big-name quarterbacks, Williams makes an especially intriguing GPP option.

Josh Huff: The Sneaky Monday Night Hammer

It's not too often we get clarity on injury situations impacting Monday Night Football on a Saturday, but today's injury report gifted us with some actionable DFS news regarding the upcoming Eagles-Giants game. No, it wasn't the update on Odell Beckham Jr.'s hamstring we're all patiently waiting for, But this little nugget could go a long way in deciding the outcomes of this weekend's tournaments:

Eagles have ruled WR Nelson Agholor (ankle), LB Kiko Alonso (knee), DE Brandon Bair (groin), & LB Mychal Kendricks (hamstring) OUT for #MNF.

— ESPN Monday Night (@ESPNMondayNight) October 17, 2015

According to Mike Clay from Pro Football Focus, Miles Austin played 45 out of 47 snaps in relief of Nelson Agholor, who left last week's game early with an ankle injury. The problem with Austin as a stealth DFS play is that his career ended three seasons ago and no one has bothered to tell him. Despite the additional playing time, Austin wasn't even targeted in last week's game against the Saints.

Week 5 was a breakout of sorts for Josh Huff, who saw 49% of the Eagles wide receiver snaps, rotating with Riley Cooper. Huff scored his first NFL touchdown on a 41-yard reception, though the Saints defense deserves most of the credit for that play. What has me most excited about Huff on Monday night is that he flashed an all around game that got the coaching staff's attention -- something that can't be said for Austin or Cooper, who are known commodities at this point in their careers.

Here's Chip Kelly (Huff's college coach at Oregon and the man who made him a third round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft) on Huff's Week 5 performance:

"Josh . . . is an extremely dynamic player," Kelly said. "I think he's got the ability to change directions, stop and start. He's really good with the football in his hands, that's why he's doing a great job of returning for us. . . . But the other thing with Josh is he's extremely tough. He's one of the better blockers in this league."

In other words, don't be surprised if you see a lot more of Huff on the field this week at the expense of Austin, Cooper, or both. It was only about a month ago redraft owners were talking themselves into Agholor as a WR2 based on the numbers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin put up as the primary outside receiver in Kelly's offense. If Huff -- a talented receiver who generated some of his own preseason buzz -- has a chance at capturing that role, I want to be a week early plugging him into my lineups rather than a week late.

Huff's match-up with the Giants -- who will be missing stud cornerback Prince Amukamara -- and near minimum $3,100 price tag are icing on the cake. As Kelly pointed out, Huff is "really good with the football in his hands". A receiver with Huff's YAC ability has a huge edge on the Giants, who have allowed the fifth-most yards after the catch in the NFL season.

In a week where it's a struggle to squeeze multiple studs in great match-ups into your line-ups, Huff brings salary relief and tons of upside to the table. He should remain less than 5% owned in  large field tournaments, providing you with a low-owned hammer to help you climb the standings on Monday night.



Follow @PhilTWR

Millionaire Maker Week 4 Recap and Week 5 Preview

My weekly recap of the top lineups, trends and strategies used in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament can be found here. Some of the major takeaways from Week 4 are:

1. It was one of the lowest-scoring weeks in recent memory and almost all of the top wide receivers vastly underperformed. Most of the week's top receiver scores came from players priced below $5,000 (Vincent Jackson, Allen Hurns, and Tavon Austin for example). Interestingly, even on the top lineups the WR3s (as determined by price) far outscored the WR1s.

Would it be a worthwhile strategy to enter a Millionaire Maker lineup while trying to stick to an artificially lower cap of ~$45,000? It's an interesting concept to ponder. In a week like the one we just experienced, this strategy would have saved you from overpaying for Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Jr., Randall Cobb and the many other highly priced busts and forced you to assemble a lineup with multiple cheaper wide receiver options (which likely would have been beneficial). A strategy like this also automatically gives you a highly unique lineup since you are making entirely different decisions about how to allocate your cap and likely dealing with a unique pool of players to choose from. In weeks where the top receivers and backs perform as expected, you are likely sunk. But if things play out like they did in Week 4, you could be well positioned to take home first overall. It's a boom-bust strategy, but that's what you are looking for in these top-heavy GPPs.

2. For the second straight week, you almost had to own Devonta Freeman. He again outpaced the field at running back and separated the contenders from the pretenders in the Millionaire Maker. Can you fade him in Week 5 at a $6,300 price point?

3. You had to nail tight end to finish near the top in Week 4. Charles Clay and Martellus Bennett were both "chalk" plays with favorable matchups and extra targets expected due to Sammy Watkins and Alshon Jeffery being out with injury. Both produced solid scores that were especially valuable in a week where only one player topped 200 points.

Monday - Thursday Slate

You will not find much discussions on the Mon - Thurs NFL slates around the Internet, for a number of reasons.  First, picking players from just two games is scary.  The way to take down a GPP on a two game slate is pretty simple - get everything right.  That's hard.  With more games in play, the room for error is much bigger.  Look no further than a DraftKings' weekly perfect lineup and compare it to the top scores on even the biggest GPPs and you will find that the winners were still about 20% or more lower than the perfect score.  On short slates, you need to be as close to perfection, if not 100% perfect, as possible.

Still, these can be some fun games to play, and that's what DFS is supposed to be about, right?  Watch the games with a chance to win some money, and if you don't, just say "Oh well, maybe next time."  That's the attitude you need here.

The other part that makes Monday - Thursday slates so difficult is that these games are three days apart, which feels like a lifetime.  Consider this week where Baltimore goes to Pittsburgh on Thursday.  We know that Michael Vick will be starting, but there are some other guys who are banged up (like Crockett Gillmore) and we are not certain about whether they will play on Thursday.  That highlights a great feature of DraftKings - the ability to make a late swap right up until a player's game kicks off.  You can put Gillmore in, for example, and then decide to use Heath Miller instead on Thursday or even Maxx Williams.  You have that choice.

Now, let's talk about Monday Night Football and Kansas City visiting Green Bay.  The simple recipe for the Chiefs is to run the ball as much as possible with Jamaal Charles ($7,400) (and a little of Knile Davis ($3,000)) and play keep away from Aaron Rodgers.  That might work for a while and keep Kansas City in the game until later in the contest, which is all you want to have Charles be productive and getting 20+ touches in this one.  Travis Kelce  ($5,000) is the the top target for Alex Smith ($6,000), and the big tight end could find the end zone in Lambeau Field.  Jeremy Maclin ($6,000) will have a hard time getting to value unless he gets to 100 yards, and I just do not see that happening.  I like using Kelce and Charles from this group, but Alex Smith and/or Maclin are tournament options.

Green Bay should have Eddie Lacy ($7,200) starting tonight instead of James Starks ($3,000), but I think this game comes down to Aaron Rodgers ($8,000) and his big arm.   Randall Cobb ($7,300) should see a lot of opportunity from the slot and I like him to be the leading receiver tonight, while James Jones ($4,800) has a better chance to score than Davante Adams ($5,000) who is also coming back from injury.  Rodgers and Cobb are my favorite plays, but either wide receiver is a viable tourney option as is TE Richard Rodgers ($2,500).

Now let's talk AFC North.  Baltimore, 0-3 for the first time with Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh, heads to Pittsburgh where the Steelers have to figure out what to do without Ben Roethlisberger on a short week.  Michael Vick ($5,000) will be your starter here, but the value of stud wide reciever Antonio Brown ($9.200) drops significantly, as does home run wideout Derrius Heyward-Bey ($3,600).  Markus Wheaton ($3,500) barely warrants any mention, but two players sure to be in the short passing game this week are running back Le'Veon Bell ($7,700) and TE Heath Miller ($3,700).  Vick will dump the ball into Bell's hands early and often, and Miller should have a good shot at reaching value against Baltimore's soft secondary, something Miller always seems to find a way to exploit in this rivalry.  My top picks for Pittsburgh are Bell and Miller, but if you need cap room, consider Vick, who makes a cheap tournament stack play with Antonio Brown.  I would really not go hard after any other wide reciever aside from Brown, but if you are looking to separate your lineups, Wheaten or Heyward-Bey are you choices.

The Ravens are desperate for a win.  DESPERATE.  Joe Flacco ($6,000) has so few options to move the ball, it is almost ridiculous.  After WR Steve Smith ($6,200), only five targets went to wide receivers last week.  Tight ends Crockett Gillmore ($3,500) and rookie Maxx Williams ($2,500) were featured more all over the field against Cincinnati, and Williams could be the guy if Gillmore is out (he missed all of the second half for reasons unknown).  The run game could be in play, but who do you trust?  Justin Forsett ($6,000) is not looking that great, and Lorenzo Taliaferro ($3,000) is not on the field enough, even if he does get a shot at a touchdown.  Flacco and Smith are the safe options, and then it is anyone's best guess.

As always, take it easy on short slates, but have some fun.  Enjoy the games for what they are - games with some chance at some nice upside.  Good luck.

Enter your Monday-Thursday teams here on DraftKings.

Week 2 Overlay Check-in

A few Week 2 NFL overlays are sticking out to me. With 50 hours to go, consider taking advantage of one of these contests:

• Start, of course, with the $10M Millionaire Maker, which remains just 29% full. It's a $20 shot at winning up to $2M with an awesome payout structure along the way. If this overlays, everyone involved is going to get a boost in the biggest NFL contest of the week.
• I'm also getting into the $500K Slant. For a $9 entry, the top 20% will at least double up, with $40,000 going to 1st. And it's less than a third full right now.
• There's also a great small-ball overlay sitting there, a $5 Double Up that's just 22% filled. This could turn into a near-50/50 in a massive field of entries.

Follow @JustinHoweFF

Players on the Edge

Let's take a look at potential problem spots for offenses out on the edges of their offensive lines. We are not guaranteeing results here, but we are looking at a potential factors that could hinder a quarterbacks ability to hang in the pocket and get the ball down the field to his star receivers. Here are a few matchups with the ability to alter the course of the game. I will add to this list as the week draws out.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah vs. Vikings left tackle Matt Kalil

Ansah has had a good amount of success going head-to-head with Kalil over the course of his short career. The Lions are expecting him to step up and blossom into a big-time pass rusher, and Sunday would be a good time to deliver. This matchup is one that could force Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to flee from the pocket early, and he's not nearly as athletic as some think.
The Lions want Ansah and the other defensive ends to squeeze Bridgewater, forcing him to step up into the pocket and into pressure coming from defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and company. Rookie T.J. Clemmings gets the start at right tackle and it looks like a matchup that favors the Lions as well. Defensive ends Jason Jones, Devin Taylor and Darryl Tapp will get moved off the ball in the run game is Clemmings has great power, but they have a decided advantage as pass rushers converting speed to power on the perimeter.

Vikings defensive end Everson Griffin vs. Lions left tackle Riley Reiff

On the other side of the fence, Griffin has a somewhat favorable matchup against Reiff. Reiff is going to have problems dealing with Griffin's explosive first step and power as he doesn't always anchor well. The Lions look to be getting back right tackle LaAdrian Waddle from injury this week, and I would consider the matchup between Waddle and Vikings defensive end Brian Robison a wash.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

Atlanta defensive end Vic Beasley vs. Giants left tackle Ereck Flowers

This matchup features two players drafted very early in the 2015 draft by teams wanting them to come in and start immediately. Falcons defensive end Vic Beasley was an absolute terror at Clemson over the past two seasons and anyone watching him in Week 1 can tell you that he gets off the ball like he is riding a a rocket ship. When the Giants drafted Flowers, the plan was to have him working as a starter at the right tackle position in his first year but an injury has forced him over to the left side. Flowers is more than capable of handling anything involving power in this matchup. However, he has mechanical flaws in his footwork in pass protection and can be exposed by an average pass rusher. Beasley is no average pass rusher and I'd expect this matchup to be a very big problem for the Giants this week.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

Rams defensive end Joel Long vs. Redskins right tackle Morgan Moses

The Redskins are starting Morgan Moses at the right tackle position this week and he will face off against Rams defensive end Joel Long. This is not a good matchup for Moses, as Long plays lower to the ground and with more power, speed and quickness than Moses. It is going to cause constant chaos at the right side of the Redskins offensive line. The Rams have advantageous matchups elsewhere along this offensive line, and Long will be squeezing Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins up into a pocket where defensive tackles Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers will be waiting, and that doesn't even mention defensive end Robert Quinn. This matchup definitely has the potential to alter the outcome of this game because of the amount of sacks the Rams will generate and turnovers they will force through pressure.

Stay tuned for a few more matchups as we get into the weekend.

Follow @Bischoff_Scott

DraftKings' Contest Spotlight

Week 2 has a ton of GPP contests available this week.  Some of them are highlighted in the Week 2  DraftKings' Contests Spotlight on Footballguys.com.  Check out the contests available this week.

Of course the biggest news is the $15 Million contest called the $15M Fantasy Football World Championship:

The picture is big, but so is the prize.  A live final, followed by a Live Grand Final for a $5 Million first place prize.  200 Qualifiers from Weeks 2-14 will arrive in Las Vegas in December (NFL Week 15), where the Top 10 will get to go to Los Angeles in January during NFL Wild Card Weekend for a shot at the $5M Grand Prize.  Unbelievable.

So, follow the link, check out the contest, and take your shot at millions of dollars and fantasy football history!

Thursday Night Spotlight

This week's Thursday night game is an interesting one as we should get to see first hand how much Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos have left. I break the game down and let you know who you should be considering for your DraftKings lineup here

Trust or Fade: Thursday Night Injury Expectations

Steve Buzzard and I will be collaborating every Saturday on a feature spotlighting the week’s injury concerns. By Friday, we’ll have a full week of practice participation reports and media interviews to more accurately drill down on whether a player is likely to play, and play effectively, on Sunday.

But that doesn’t help you exploit injury edges in your Thursday-Sunday lineups.

So, I’ll be giving a quick “trust or fade” recommendation on the blog each week after the Wednesday practice participation report is released. It’ll be based on incomplete information, but I’m hoping to keep you from starting a player who is likely to be ineffective or take a smart risk on a player who others may be avoiding unnecessarily.

You’ll also want to check out our full midweek injury feature from Craig Zumsteg when it goes live late Wednesday night on our season-long article page.

Thursday Night Football Expectation

C.J. Anderson 6700  >>>>  (Toe/Ankle | Questionable)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

Anderson didn't look comfortable before the late fourth quarter play where he sprained his toe. He's told reporters this week he aggravated an ankle injury that has nagged him throughout his career. His Week 1 injuries occurred late Sunday afternoon and the Broncos are on the road tonight. It's too quick of a turnaround to expect adequate treatment and recovery time. He's expected to play tonight, but he won't be anywhere near 100%. Expect a heavy rotation with Ronnie Hillman against a tough division opponent on the road with a solid run defense. Even the contrarians among us won't find a lot to like here this week.

Demaryius Thomas 8400  >>>>  (Hand | Probable)
Travis Kelce 5100  >>>>  (Hip | Probable)
Jeremy Maclin 6500  >>>>  (Back | Probable)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

I'm not making a specific recommendation on whether you should use Maclin in your cash or GPP lineups. I'm only noting that you can remove injury concerns from your list of pros and cons here.

While there were initially some concerns about Thomas' hand injury, he's practiced all week and it seems to be a non-issue. Kelce has been on the injury report with a minor hip condition and has seen his practice snaps managed. Neither injury should affect their expectation tonight.

Trust or Fade?

NOTE: After publishing this post earlier today, LeSean McCoy left practice with hamstring tightness. There's enough concern here to remove McCoy from all lineups. There's little reason to fuss over a late swap scenario with him this week.

Julio Jones 8900  >>>>  (Hamstring | DNP)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

I'm never reassured when a wide receiver leaves a game multiple times with soreness and then misses practice with a report of a muscle strain. Jones finished last week's game no worse than when he started, however, and doesn't seem to be at risk of missing this week's game. The difficulty here is that Atlanta is probably the least reported team in the NFL. Often, critical updates aren't released until just before game time. The matchup is very favorable for Julio and you'll have the ability to swap Jones out of your lineup on Sunday if needed. If you use Jones in a Thursday lineup, make sure you're monitoring the late week practice reports closely.

Alshon Jeffery 7500  >>>>  (Calf | Not Listed)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

Jeffery wasn't his usual explosive self last week, but he avoided any aggravations and is now on his second week of practice since returning. He was not listed on the injury report on Wednesday and is safe to use.

Mike Evans 7400  >>>>  (Hamstring | Limited)
Cash: LEAN FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

Evans managed a limited practice last Friday, rested in Week 1, and is now back to a limited practice on Wednesday this week. There are enough solid options in his price range that it's probably best to fade the risk of an aggravation in Thursday cash games. If you do elect to use him in either format, watch for an unexpected missed practice later in the week and have a backup plan in place.

Randall Cobb 7400  >>>>  (Shoulder | Limited)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

Cobb will continue to deal with a painful shoulder sprain and it may be another week or two before we can reliably project him to an elite target ceiling. But he showed last week he's willing to play through pain and produce.

Justin Forsett 6200  >>>>  (Shoulder | Limited)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

The specifics of Forsett's shoulder injury aren't clear but there's nothing in the local or national media of concern. It's safe to consider this wear-and-tear rather than something likely to limit him on Sunday. Again, the late swap function here gives you some leeway to roster him in a strong home matchup with an attractive salary and adjust later if needed.

C.J. Spiller 5000  >>>>  (Knee | Limited)
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN TRUST
Something about this still nags at me. I didn't like the suggestion that Spiller wasn't cleared to practice at all last week but would 100% play in Week 2. The limited practice is a great start, however, and it's possible Spiller will return to a full practice by Friday. Volume is a concern here, even in a favorable matchup. Should the Saints get out to a lead, Spiller may not be needed later in the game. Limited practice participation may also mean limited participation in this week's game plan. I'd consider him a lower salary, contrarian GPP play only.

Delanie Walker 3400  >>>>  (Wrist | DNP)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE
What was originally called a hand injury has later been reported as a sprained wrist. Walker has been immobilized much of the week, indicating more than a passing concern from the medical staff. Unless you really like another tight end in the 3000-3600 range and have the lineup flexibility to pivot later, fade Walker on Thursday and reassess for the Sunday slate.

_________________________________________


Check back on Friday for our Injury Spotlight and Lineup Recommendation feature. Until then, follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking analysis on practice participation and media interviews. Finally, on Sunday morning, I’ll be adapting my Injury Expectations column for this blog to help navigate any tricky game time decisions.

Stack Check, Week 1

I played four QB-WR stacks across my lineups this week, based upon the h-value projections from my Week 1 Cost Efficiency Breakdown. Two brought me various degrees of success, and the other two more or less muddled along thanks to individual efforts.

What Worked Out?

Tony Romo-Dez Bryant-Jason Witten panned out very nicely - I cashed in my top GPP this week due to their two scores - and should've produced even more. Bryant's injury was a killer, as he was the most affordable of all of the first-tier WR options and had a bright fourth quarter outlook. (Side note: this stack only made it into one of my lineups. I pivoted off of Witten, ironically, because I never trust his red zone potential.)

Ryan Tannehill-Jarvis Landry had the look of a dynamite full-PPR pairing: a pass-happy offense that features the underneath slot receiver taking on a poor secondary. It paid off fairly well, but mostly due to Landry's punt return touchdown. The expectation was that Landry would muster more than 6.6 yards per catch, but he seems to be settling in as an extreme small-ball weapon, far beyond the likes of even Julian Edelman or Brandin Cooks. DraftKings' full-PPR setup is the place for Landry's value.

What Didn't?

Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams was the sexy play of the week thanks to Adams' low salary. It wound up producing serviceably, but those gobs of Adams owners were forced to watch scrap heap superstar James Jones catch two red zone touchdowns. Frustrating stuff, this game of ours.

I ran out Andy Dalton-A.J. Green in of my GPP lineups. The numbers strongly suggested the two would feast on a sorry troop of Raiders cornerbacks. But Green dropped a touchdown that would have given him a WR1 line, and the game script directed the action heavily to Tyler Eifert. Eifert is a guy who projected fairly well, but fell out of my consideration when extra cash allowed me to add Martellus Bennett and Greg Olsen.

Other Successful Stacks

My top RB-DEF play of the week, Chris Ivory-Jets, worked out beautifully. Ivory's ball-control success kept the Browns' pitiful offense even further pressed for scoring opportunity. Most importantly, it built a lead that forced Browns coordinator John DeFilippo to put the game largely into Johnny Manziel's (currently) inept hands.

I love stacking opposing wideouts in high-scoring games, and Week 1 gave me two great options. I jumped on both, and both ultimately disappointed to some degree. Julio Jones-Jordan Matthews was phenomenal, but also very, very highly owned and few DFSers benefited from it. And Bryant-Odell Beckham, Jr. certainly seems like it should have gone much better:

Designed play to get the ball in Preston Parker's hands while Odell Beckham blocks

— Arif Hasan (@ArifHasanNFL) September 14, 2015

There's little to explain the Giants' offensive game plan for Sunday night. But the underutilization of Beckham was especially puzzling.

Keep an eye on our ever-expanding DraftKings coverage, especially John Mamula's Starting Stacks column, for the premium Footballguys take on your stacking options!

DraftKings CFB Saturday Sleepers and GPP Plays: Week 2

Another huge Saturday of wall-to-wall College Football and DFS action is fast approaching. It may be only Week 2, but there are a ton of intriguing games on this week's schedule. So many in fact that DraftKings has split the action across three different slates. Three slates, three times the fun but that's a lot of information to digest. Fear not, we've got you covered. Check out DraftKings CFB Saturday Sleepers and GPP Plays: Week 2.

We take a look at each slate and give you the games to focus on while building your lineups. We give you some picks to use and some players that may be sneaky good sources of fantasy points this week. Three slates can be a lot to manage, there's no way we're letting you do this alone. Check out the article here and be sure to visit our DraftKings page for all the content and tools you'll need to build some winning lineups this weekend.

The Contrarian: DraftKings Week 1 

For large field GPPs, sometimes to road less traveled can lead to greater results. We know the top plays and matchups. Some of those players can help us form a solid core for our lineups. But to gain separation in tournaments, we need to dig a little deeper. We need to find the hidden gems that may not be so apparent at first glance, the players that are under the radar and won't be so highly owned for the week. What players fit the bill for this week? Have a look at The Contrarian: DraftKings Week 1 to find some answers. 

Week 1 Wide Receiver Value

The top tier of wide receivers is generally excellent and worthy of their high Week 1 salaries. But there's a second-tier guy priced comfortably lower with some BIG projections against a pitiful secondary... see my Cost Efficiency Breakdown for DraftKings Week 1 for more!

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Week 1 Overlay Watch

Still some pretty attractive Week 1 overlays over at DraftKings:

- The NFL $100K Kickoff Special runs TONIGHT is currently just 13% full. It's a great small-entry play, with just a $3 entry fee and prizes up to $10,000.

- The NFL $1M Blitz is, at the moment, just 10% full and pays off HANDSOMELY. Play $300 to win up to $150,000, and the top 20% land in the money!

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DraftKings Week 1 Cost Efficiency Breakdown

Week 1 is here for DraftKings action! There's a very solid QB1 play for cash AND tournament games sitting at just a $7,400 salary. He projects to throw more passes than anybody this week, against one of the league's more burnable secondaries. Get clued in by my Cost Efficiency Breakdown for DraftKings Week 1 and make sure your lineups are value-smart!

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Footballguys Daily Fantasy Hour hosted by RotoGrinders

As reported here previously, the DFS experts at RotoGrinders have teamed up with Footballguys to produce an hour-long videocast every Wednesday night at 8:30 PM (EST) starring Dan Back (db730), Austin Lee (sixmill), and John Lee (tipandpick).  The premiere episode was recorded last night, where the guys discussed Week #1 NFL topics such as preseason impressions, rookies on the rise, ownership projections, WR/CB matchups, Thursday night football analysis, and related DFS-centric subject matter.  You can can watch the video on demand here:

If you prefer to catch the episode on your mobile device, you can subscribe to RotoGrinders' Daily Fantasy Fix podcast, where it can be downloaded now:  FBG/RG Daily Fantasy Hour (Audio-only)


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DraftKings Cash Game Lineups for Week 1

Looking for help with your DraftKings lineups for week 1?  Footballguys.com is giving you a look at some of the cash game lineups that we will be using this week. DraftKings cash games are 50/50s, Double-Ups, and Head-to-Head Matchups. If you play in any of these games, then this page is must-read if you want to have an edge in your contests this week.

These include lineups that can be used in tonight's NFL season opener between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Looking to use Tom Brady in a Thursday game this week? We'll give you a couple examples of lineups that we think will work with Brady as your QB. Want to start Antonio Brown at WR? We have examples of that too.

Check out these DraftKings Week 1 Cash Game Lineups from the staff at Footballguys.com.

Also note that we will be tracking the progress of the staff here on the DraftKings blog to see how these cash game lineups would have performed.  The scores for each lineup will be tallied and we will see who would have cashed.  The cash line will be determined by a representative DraftKings 50/50 contest.  Here is the contest for Week 1:

DraftKings' NFL Massive $10 Double-Up for NFL Week 1

Also note that we will be checking on the cash lines for different price points.  DraftKings offers Double-Ups from $2 all the way up to $1,000.  Let's see if there is much difference in the cash line for $2 through. $50 this week:

DraftKings' NFL Massive $2 Double-Up for NFL Week 1

DraftKings' NFL Massive $5 Double-Up for NFL Week 1

DraftKings' NFL Massive $50 Double-Up for NFL Week 1

Trust or Fade: Injury Updates for Thursday Lineups

Steve Buzzard and I will be collaborating every Friday on a feature spotlighting the week’s injury concerns. By Friday, we’ll have a full week of practice participation reports and media interviews to more accurately drill down on whether a player is likely to play, and play effectively, on Sunday.

But that doesn’t help you exploit injury edges in your Thursday-Sunday lineups.

So, I’ll be giving a quick “trust or fade” recommendation on the blog each week after the Wednesday practice participation report is released. It’ll be based on incomplete information, but I’m hoping to keep you from starting a player who is likely to be ineffective or take a smart risk on a player who others may be avoiding unnecessarily.

You’ll also want to check out our full midweek injury feature from Craig Zumsteg when it goes live late Wednesday night on our season-long article page.

Thursday Night Football Expectation
Here are my recommendations for how to approach players with injury concerns playing on Thursday Night Football:

Julian Edelman 6600  >>>  (Ankle | Not listed on injury report)
If you’re buying into a heavy passing expectation for the Patriots this week, don’t shy away from Edelman. New England is notorious for listing half the team as questionable, whether they’re assured of playing or known to be ruled out. Edelman isn’t on the injury report this week and should be at full strength. He’s safe to use in Thursday night contests.

Trust or Fade?
Here are the most high profile injured players under consideration for DFS lineups this week and my recommendation for how to approach them in your Thursday-Sunday cash and GPP lineups:

LeSean McCoy 7200  >>>  (Hamstring | Full)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE
You need to see more than one full practice to trust McCoy, who has a high hamstring strain at risk of in-game aggravation. Consider him as a high risk GPP play only.


Randall Cobb 8000  >>>  (Shoulder | Limited)
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST
Cobb will be limited all week as the Packers keep him away from contact but I fully expect him to play on Sunday.

Alshon Jeffery 8300  >>>  (Calf | Limited)
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE
Jeffery needs to increase his practice participation to trust in cash games this week. If the Thursday news is positive, he’s worth considering as a GPP play.

Mike Evans 7700  >>>  (Hamstring | DNP)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE
Evans’ Wednesday DNP reads much more like a player who isn’t ready to practice than a player getting a day off midweek.

Joique Bell 5200  >>>  (Knee | Not listed)
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE
I’m frankly shocked Bell isn’t listed on the Lions’ injury report after spending nearly all of camp on PUP. Bell’s early week positive participation probably hurts the upside of Ameer Abdullah than helps Bell’s ceiling. But it’s still too soon to expect Bell is healthy enough to get more than 8-10 touches.

Tre’ Mason 5000  >>>  (Hamstring | DNP)
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE
I don’t expect Mason to play this week. You may consider Benny Cunningham as a speculative GPP play.

_________________________________________

Check back on Friday for our Injury Spotlight and Lineup Recommendation feature. Until then, follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking analysis on practice participation and media interviews. Finally, on Sunday morning, I’ll be adapting my Injury Expectations column for this blog to help navigate any tricky game time decisions.

Is Tyrod Taylor a top-five DraftKings play for Week 1?

Tyrod Taylor is being talked up as the value quarterback of Week 1. Is he a GPP must-play? Here’s how my numbers break down for this Colts matchup:

YdPass	TDPass	Int	AttRush	YdRush	TDRush	DKPt(Rk)	Pt/$1K(Rk)	H-Val(Rk)
178.4	1.35	0.81	5.1	30.8	0.18	15.89(16th)	3.1772(1st)	48.115(4th)

Obviously, priced at the QB minimum, Taylor represents the best numeric values of the week; he’ll have obliterated his salary expectations by the second quarter. But what does that value mean for your lineup? After all, if he only brings you eight points or so, you won’t care how by much he exceeded those expectations. You’ll be bummed over the eight-point QB week you’re staring at.

Well, h-value tells you to be confident. H-value is our method of marrying a player’s scoring expectations to his per-dollar value. And the equation tells us that Taylor is, by my projections, the fourth-best QB play you can make this week.

That should excite you enough. But how likely are my projections to hit the mark?

For Taylor, a complete unknown as a passer, the numbers expect about 6.8 yards per attempt, a low mark but fair for a first-time starter in a ho-hum offense. They don’t love his touchdown potential, given the lack of health and consistent dynamism throughout the Bills offense. Obviously, his true value will be tied to his rushing numbers; specifically, will Taylor put up good ones or great ones?

Last year, three QBs (Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton) soared above all others in rushing production, and their average game featured a rushing line of 6.8 rushes for 42.3 yards. It would be naïve to expect that top-tier production, so my model projects Taylor at 5.1 for 30.8. But it’s easy to see from Wilson, Kaepernick, and Newton that there’s room for more, which means that, as the #4 value play of the week, Taylor may still be undervalued.

I’ve plugged Taylor into one of my two GPP lineups. I’m not expecting fireworks, but I am looking for a high-end QB2 performance in the hopes that the rest of that star-studded lineup - - on the right, and truly a sight to behold - - simply bludgeons the rest of the field. H-value measurement tells me that’s a very fair gamble.

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