Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 8

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Kamar Aiken - $4,200 vs. SD (Less than 5% Projected Ownership)

Aiken’s days of fantasy relevance are seemingly over now that Steve Smith and Crockett Gilmore have returned to Baltimore’s lineup. Last week, Joe Flacco threw the ball 40 times and Aiken only saw three targets. As a result, Aiken is certain to be less than 2% owned (and deservedly so), but he could be a sneaky play against San Diego. Last week, Aiken was on the field for 80% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps -- the most of any Ravens wide receiver -- so it’s clear playing time is not the issue. This week, Aiken figures to run the majority of his routes against Chargers cornerback Brandon Flowers. Aiken has five inches and 28 pounds on Flowers, who has let up the most fantasy points per route defended this season according to Pro Football Focus. This recommendation is admittedly a high-risk dart throw, but if Flacco spots the mismatch, Aiken has a 20+ point ceiling in a game with the highest over/under on the slate (50.5 points).