Friday, October 9, 2015

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 5

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned." - John Lee

And the player insight:

Eddie Lacy ($6,700 vs. STL - 5% Projected Ownership)

Lacy checks off every box I look for in a GPP running back. He’s playing at home (where he performed significantly better last season) on a heavily favored team with a high implied point total, and the crowd has every reason to fade him. Since putting up 17.9 fantasy points in Week 1, Lacy has been injured, splitting snaps and held out of the end zone -- yet he’s still the sixth-most expensive running back on the slate. With fantasy football superhero Devonta Freeman available for $400 less, it’s a safe bet Lacy will be overlooked. Lacy played on 77% of Green Bay's snaps in Week 1, before spraining his ankle early in Week 2. He played hurt on 41% of the team's snaps in Week 3, and that number bumped up to 56% last week. With the injury now squarely in the rear-view, I’d expect his snap count to return to pre-injury levels, affording Lacy the opportunity to pound the Rams into submission once Green Bay opens up a big lead. The match-up with St. Louis’ defensive front isn’t as bad as it sounds -- the Rams have allowed 38.6% more fantasy points to running backs than the league average over the last three games.

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