Friday, September 18, 2015

Week 2: Why I love Darren Sproles

As I start to build my Cash and GPP lineups for this weekend, I find that I'm leaning toward Darren Sproles a lot this week.

Here's a couple reasons why you should consider having him in your lineup.

Last Week's Performance. 

Sproles had only 5 rushing attempts, but converted them into 50 yards of rushing, compared with the 14 total yards from DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews combined. Sproles won't get many goal line carries, but he knows how to make the most of his limited touches.

Now add in the seven receptions on nine targets for 76 more yards and you can see he turned in a pretty solid day from a fantasy prospective. That gave him 19.6 points in DraftKings scoring system, for a very affordable $3500.

If you've read our Cracking DraftKings Strategy Guide, you know that to be a good Cash Game player (50/50, double ups), we're targeting a player that can reach 3x their salary in points. For a Tournament, we're looking for 4x or better. At 3500, Sproles only needs 10.5 points to be a 3x player. at 14 he's 4x and at 17.5 he's 5x or more. Last week Sproles didn't reach the end zone, but at 19.6 points, he was almost 6x his salary value.

The Monday Night Salary Exploit

In most cases, DraftKings needs to lock in the stating salary for the following week contests before the Monday Night game is finished. Since Sproles was playing in Monday Night of Week 1, his performance wasn't considered when his salary was set for Week 2. Savvy DraftKings players know this and look for value plays based on the Monday Night game. As expected, Sproles salary for this week is still only $3500 despite his big performance last week against Atlanta.

Week 2: Sproles vs. Dallas Cowboys

 Last week the Cowboys only gave up 99 yards rushing, but Shane Vereen also chipped in four receptions for another 46 yards. The Cowboys also controlled the clock for the game, allowing the Giants less than 23 minutes of offense. Those are similar stats to what the Eagles had against the Falcons, so any improvement on that means more opportunities for Sproles to touch the ball.

Vegas is expecting a high scoring game. The current Over/Under is 55.5 points, with the Eagles a 5 point favorite at home. This means the Eagles are protected to put up about 30 points in this game. The Cowboys are also without Dez Bryant this week, which will make it that much harder for them to move the ball. The more opportunities that the Eagles have to score, the more likely Sproles will be to reach his target value.

Currently, our projections at have Sproles with four receptions and a combined 52 yards rushing and receiving. This puts him very close to 3x value already, not taking into account any potential TD scoring. He could easily exceed these if this turns into a high-scoring game.

Return TD Potential. 

Finally, Sproles is also Philadelphia's punt returner. While DraftKings doesn't award points for return yards, they do give 6 points for any punt return TD. (See Jarvis Landry's stat line from last week).

Sproles only had 2 punt return TDs last season, but that extra scoring opportunity only makes him that much more attractive.

A Note on GPP.

Sproles is no brainer in cash games. In GPP he represents excellent value as well, but he might also be in a lot of other lineups. Typically you target player that are not on a lot of other rosters, so this is something to consider before using Sproles in a tournament lineup. He has an excellent chance to reach the 4x or 5x value that you want, so if you decide to use him, make sure to target lesser owned players with your other roster spots.

Good Luck this weekend!

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