Saturday, September 26, 2015

Trust or Fade: Sunday Injury Expectations

Earlier in the week, I made a trust or fade recommendation for the injured players at risk at being limited on Sunday for those constructing lineups for the Thursday night DraftKings slate. After Friday's practice participation report, media interviews, and some Saturday updates, those recommendations sometimes change.

Here's the Sunday morning update on which game time decisions are safe to roster on the DraftKings Sunday slate and which situations you should fade.

I'm not going to write up Carlos Hyde, C.J. Anderson, C.J. Spiller, Justin Forsett, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Todd Gurley, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Delanie Walker and Jason Witten. I think all are healthy enough to remove injury concerns from your deliberations this week. In particular, I don't believe Evans will be on a snap count today and I would project Gurley to get 8-14 touches.

I'm also not going to write up Eric Decker, Demarco Murray, and Jordan Cameron. I doubt Decker will make the Jets' active roster and I wouldn't consider Murray or Cameron in any format.

That leaves a short list, but it includes three critical situations.

MARSHAWN LYNCH | 7400 | Calf Strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE

I had Lynch as a core cash game play for much of this week and I know I wasn't alone. The DNP on Friday was a clear indication the Seahawks felt it was more important for Lynch to recover and rehab than participate in any light workout and walkthrough. The "cautious optimism" reported on Saturday means only that the Seahawks saw enough from Lynch not to rule him out. Were this any player not named Marshawn Lynch facing such a soft matchup, he'd be a clear fade.

I'm not advocating this, but if you decide to risk Lynch in a cash lineup, you'll need to leave room in your flex spot to pivot to Fred Jackson if Lynch's pregame goes poorly. Choose a combination of Lynch and a late flex play you can swap to Jackson and a high floor play, preferably from the KC-GB Monday night game.

EDDIE LACY | 7200 | Ankle Sprain | Questionable
Cash: FADE

As the week progressed, the news grew more positive on Lacy. But that's primarily because the Packers were so pessimistic earlier in the week. I think Lacy has a good chance to be active Monday night but I'm less certain he'll be able to handle more than 10-12 touches. He can't be considered in cash lineups and there's not enough upside to consider him a GPP play either.

I wouldn't put Lacy in a lineup this weekend. But his status affects James Starks. If you roster Starks, be sure you've left yourself some room to get out of his shares if we hear Lacy is healthier than expected and you're not willing to roll with Starks anyway.

CHRIS IVORY | 5000 | Quad Strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE

Ivory is a game time decision and will reportedly have to convince the medical staff and coaches he's healthy enough to play. He's had one less day of recovery and rehab after last week's Monday night game and was still sore midweek. I don't think there's enough evidence to argue he'll be inactive today, but I don't see him getting his usual workload. He's too risky to use in a DFS contest.

DAVANTE ADAMS | 5000 | Ankle Sprain | Questionable 
Cash: FADE

Adams is on the probable side of questionable but too risky to trust in lineups. Aaron Rodgers has enough weapons -- even without Lacy and Jordy Nelson -- to ignore a mostly healthy Adams.

Hope variance shines on you today in your DraftKings contests. Footballguys Insiders can read my full breakdown of today's injury expectations.

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