Thursday, September 17, 2015

Jamaal Charles and a Note About Thursday Running Backs

If you read my chapter about Thursday vs. Sunday contests in our Cracking DraftKings e-Book, you probably plan on entering a bunch of contests that start tonight and fading players from Denver and Kansas City. While I've obviously got no qualms with that strategy (especially since Broncos-Chiefs has a 42 point over/under), I wanted to make sure you didn't gloss over my note about Thursday night running backs.

In the e-Book, I pointed out running back fantasy production over the last three years is 8.5% higher on Thursdays than on Sundays. Over the three year sample, 1.98 rushing touchdowns per game were scored on Thursdays versus 1.53 per game on Sundays - a 29% difference.

There were more interesting tidbits I came across during my research, we elected to leave on the cutting room floor:
  • RB1s had the greatest chance out of any position to reach tournament value on Thursday nights. In 2014, RB1s from the Thursday game returned 4x value or greater 23% of the time. Quarterbacks reached their tournament value threshold only 6% of the time, and WR1s 17%.
  • Thursday night games tend to be lopsided. Last year, 12 out of 17 games played on Thursday were decided by 13 points or more. The Vegas favorite was on the winning side of the blowout eight times. In those eight games, the average stat line for the RB1 on the winning team was 21.13 carries, 102.5 rushing yards, and one TD.
This was a long way of saying, if you put anyone from the Thursday game in your lineup this week, make it Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs are at home, favored by Vegas, and Charles remains the centerpiece of Kansas City's offense. Last year, nine of Charles' touchdowns came at home versus only five in road games. His ownership percentage will likely be a little higher than it should be in a tough match-up, but if the Chiefs are going to come out with a win, they'll have to get Charles going. Don't be afraid to use him tonight.


9 comments:

  1. American actor and a writer, as I'm a content writing expert at Gulf Dissertation writing agency so I can say that, he was a majestic writer, he wrote more than 50+ plays and lots of books as well. So in short, Sam Shepard was an amazing writer and an amazing actor too.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Some of the supposedly valid codes were invalid Booking.com Discount Code. Emailed myvouchercode. No response.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The content of this blog is worth reading and highly appreciated. The content delivery style of this article is professional and content writer must be appreciated. The writers delivering the Economics Dissertation writing service on the online sites and virtual platforms does incredible job and are talented in bringing viewership and traffic to the websites.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The people use them for celebration, especially the individuals who are working at the youtube tv in canada platforms use these lighting and fireworks to celebrate the events like Christmas and other festivities and events.

    ReplyDelete
  5. This blog's material is remarkable and well worth reading. This article's content writer should be commended for using a professional delivery style. The writers providing the hnd assignment help Uk on online platforms and virtual sites do a fantastic job and are excellent at driving viewers and traffic to the websites.

    ReplyDelete
  6. This is an amazing sales dashboard that Venuearc Jamaal Charles has put together! It is so user friendly and has everything you need to know about sales data in one place. This will be a valuable resource for anyone in sales.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Great article. I read this article while write my dissertation online. Its a very interesting one.

    ReplyDelete
  8. This is a very good article. I will also rite some articles after coming back from Dubai desert safari.

    ReplyDelete
  9. The article is readable. Hi, I am Blogger on Dubai Desert Safari.

    ReplyDelete