Friday, September 18, 2015

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 2

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned."

And the player insight:

Jonathan Stewart - $5,500 vs. Houston (Less than 5% Projected Ownership)
Stewart is a great play this week for the same reasons Chris Ivory was last week. Carolina is a home favorite matched up with an opponent their defense should dominate. The game script points to heavy dose of the run, and the crowd should be off Stewart after a ho-hum Week 1 performance (12.1 fantasy points). While Stewart’s stat-line on the road against the Jags left something to be desired, there were also positive signs. He was on the field for 73% of Carolina’s offensive snaps and handled 86% of the team’s carries. Stewart also caught all four of his targets, which is always welcome on DraftKings (full PPR scoring). You’re not going to find many unquestioned feature backs in a better spot this week, and Stewart has flashed immense upside in much tougher match-ups as recently as last year’s playoffs.

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