Friday, September 11, 2015

Projecting Ownership Percentage

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's a small sample of the strategy insight:

“If a guy is 30% owned at $5000 on DraftKings, you have to ask yourself if you think he could get 20 points (4x value for GPP) at least 30% of the time. If the answer is ‘yes,’ then you roster him and forget about the percent owned.

And the player insight:

Jordan Cameron - $3,800 @ WAS (Under 5% Owned)
Cameron’s ownership percentage is a tough one to project. On one hand, he’s a relatively cheap option (TE9) with proven tournament upside, which should make him attractive to the rest of the field. On the other, he’s coming off a lost season and we’ve never seen him play a game in a Dolphins uniform. Ultimately, I see the crowd paying up to get guys like Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett, which should leave Cameron under-owned. The Redskins ranked bottom five at defending the tight end last season, and Cameron seems primed for a big role in the red zone, where the Dolphins ran the second most plays in the NFL in 2014. The two players who led Miami in red zone targets last season -- Mike Wallace and tight end Charles Clay -- both play for different teams, freeing up 2.5 red zone targets per game. High touchdown potential is a requisite for a GPP tight end and Cameron has it this week.

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