Saturday, September 12, 2015

Trust or Fade: Sunday Injury Expectations

Earlier in the week, I made a trust or fade recommendation for the injured players at risk at being limited on Sunday for those constructing lineups for the Thursday night DraftKings slate. After Friday's practice participation report, media interviews, and some Saturday updates, those recommendations sometimes change.

Here's the Sunday morning update on which injured players are safe to roster on the FanDuel Sunday slate and which situations you should fade.

ALSHON JEFFERY | 8300 | Calf strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: FADE

I think Jeffery will likely be active today and the matchup is very favorable. However, I don't believe Jeffery is at full strength and he's at risk of an in-game aggravation even if he is effective. Though he's been productive through muscle strains in the past, I think you either pay up for the healthier studs with equally strong matchups or take the obvious values at lower salaries like Brandin Cooks (7100) or Davante Adams (4400). I would consider him only as a low-owned gamble in the Millionaire Maker.

MIKE EVANS | 7700 | Hamstring strain | Questionable
Cash: LEAN FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

Evans said he felt "really good" after his limited Friday practice. If it hadn't been his first and only practice in the past three weeks, that might sway me in a more positive direction. The only reason I'm giving Evans the benefit of the doubt here is the very favorable matchup. I didn't consider him in my lineup deliberations this week and, barring an extremely positive pregame note, neither should you.

LESEAN MCCOY | 7200 | Hamstring strain | Questionable
Cash: FADE
GPP: LEAN FADE

McCoy practiced fully this week but told ESPN's Josina Anderson he didn't feel 100% recovered. A high hamstring strain is a tough injury. McCoy has had four weeks to recover and no setbacks this week, but that doesn't guarantee he won't struggle today. I'd recommend looking elsewhere around the 7000 range. Jeremy Hill (7100), C.J. Anderson (7000), and DeMarco Murray (6700) are all much stronger cash and GPP plays today.

RANDALL COBB | 8000 | AC sprain | Probable
Cash: TRUST
GPP: TRUST

There's a small risk of an in-game aggravation if Cobb is hit or falls on the shoulder just right. But pain medication and extra padding should keep him fit enough to trust, especially if you're looking for to stack someone other than Davante Adams with Aaron Rodgers today.

I'm also fading Zach Ertz (3600 | questionable) and Joique Bell (5200 | expected to start) today. Ertz will probably be active on Monday night, but isn't likely to see a full workload. And the Detroit running back rotation is too unclear to trust. Bell's availability also kills any potential GPP flex value for Ameer Abdullah.

Best of luck today in your DraftKings contests. Footballguys Insiders can read my full breakdown of today's injury expectations, which includes additional thoughts on lesser players like Devante Parker, Tre Mason, and Michael Floyd.

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