Each week, unexpected wide receiver scores fall upon
unsuspecting DFS players, for various reasons. Often, the culprit is the quality
of the cornerback(s) lining up across the ball – many DFSers don’t foresee
streak-busting matchups with the league’s top cover men. To that end, I
rummaged through Week 1’s CB v. WR matchups to identify a handful of WR plays
to exploit (listed in green), as well as a few
to shy away from (in red).
Cornerbacks to target
relentlessly and without mercy
Despite the two rookie quarterbacks making their NFL debuts,
the Titans-Buccaneers matchup looks ripe for big pass plays. The two teams “boast”
several of the league’s worst-rated CBs from 2014. With Jason McCourty likely
out for the Titans, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson should run circles around their
replacements, Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Perrish Cox. Wreh-Wilson was especially
putrid last year, but neither looks to match up well with Tampa Bay’s
playmaking twin towers. Their wild card is the accuracy of Jameis Winston, who
looked overmatched in the preseason, but Evans and Jackson are oversized
dominators capable of reeling in misplaced throws. Both project to WR2 (or
better) upsides this week.
On the other side, Kendall Wright
looks primed for a solid PPR line from the slot. He seemed to develop a strong
connection with Marcus Mariota in the preseason, and will kick off the year
against an uninspiring slot CB crew of Leonard
Johnson, Mike Jenkins, and Sterling Moore. If he indeed opens 2015
as Mariota’s security blanket, we could be looking at 7+ receptions at a
relatively cheap price tag ($5,100). Beyond Wright, Week 1 is as good a time as
any to roll the dice on the big-play potential of Justin
Hunter and Dorial Green-Beckham. Bucs
outside men Alterraun Verner and Johnthan Banks were miserable in 2014,
so a handful of big downfield strikes could be on tap for Tennessee.
For whatever reason, the Cowboys like to use Brandon Carr to shadow certain opposing
wideouts. But Carr has been atrocious in coverage in recent years, and things
are even less rosy for Dallas on the other side: first-round mega-bust Morris Claiborne is likely only still
on roster due to the team’s pathetic depth chart. Like Carr, he’s been picked
on relentlessly as a Cowboy. As a result of this ineptitude, Giants WRs make
for even stronger plays than usual this week, so upgrade Odell Beckham, Jr. even further through the
Beckham-shaped hole in your ceiling. Even the wildly inconsistent Rueben Randle looks like a fair “punting” option in
deep GPP games.
Doug Baldwin’s prospects get
a solid bump as he takes on the Rams’ much-maligned CB crew -- specifically Janoris Jenkins, whom PFF docked with
nearly 10 yards per target and five touchdowns in 2014. Baldwin soundly
defeated Rams CBs last year, catching 10 balls for 166 yards and a touchdown in
their two meetings. With the Seahawks likely to throw more in 2015 but lacking
outside threats, Baldwin could post another WR2 (or better) line this week.
You don’t need me to outline the reasons Packers wideouts
get a bump as they take on the Bears’ atrocious secondary. Second-year man Kyle Fuller is a promising playmaker,
but he and the rest of the defense teamed to allow 7.71 yards per reception and
a jaw-dropping 34 touchdowns in 2014. Even with Jordy Nelson sidelined, there’s
plenty of firepower at play here, so Randall Cobb
becomes a no-brainer WR1 while super-cheap Davante
Adams holds real WR2 appeal.
Cornerbacks to run
from, typically while screaming and wetting yourself
There’s trouble afoot for Brian
Quick, a popular breakout candidate who comes cheaply this week (just
$4,200), but will face Richard Sherman
and the vaunted Seahawks secondary. Quick actually broke out last year, finally
parlaying his mammoth physical ability into fantasy startability prior to his
injury. But as much as I like Quick’s potential, this clearly isn’t the week to
roll the dice. Last year, Quick dominated for the first four weeks before being
thoroughly shut down by two highly successful pass defenses from the NFC West –
the 49ers and the Seahawks. Seattle closed the 2014 season on a tear, allowing
an anemic 118 pass yards per game over the final seven weeks. They did lose
Byron Maxwell, and may take the field without All-Pro SS Kam Chancellor, but
those may not be devastating losses. The Seahawks are well-stocked in the
secondary; second-year man Dion Bailey hasdrawn raves this preseason, and Maxwell replacements Tharold
Simon and Cary Williams posted
promising 2014 seasons in coverage.
Twitterverse poster boy Allen
Robinson has a tough task on his hands to open the year. He’ll face rising
star Josh Norman, Carolina’s shadow CB
who allowed a feeble 5.0 yards per target last year – nearly a yard and a half
fewer than Richard Sherman. Robinson enters the year as the Jaguars’
unquestioned top option in the passing game, so he’ll see more Norman than he’d
probably like. Robinson looks like a target hog in an offense that trails a
lot, so he’s not without major fantasy appeal. But that appeal is volume-based –
Robinson is not a dynamic downfield or red zone option – and that’s magnified
against a shutdown CB that doesn’t allow big plays.
Rough news for Sammy Watkins:
the Colts may be moving Vontae Davis around the field to shadow specific receivers. Davis played almost
exclusively on the right in 2014 and, according to PFF, allowed 50+ yards in
coverage just once all year. If he’s deployed exclusively on Watkins, the Bills’
only gamebreaking downfield wideout, it’s hard to expect big numbers for the
second-year man.
The “Dodge Darrelle” strategy is rendered useless this week,
as Darrelle Revis faces the pitiful
Browns offense. Any scant appeal Dwayne Bowe
holds for you should evaporate as quickly as Bowe’s productivity did in Kansas
City.
Steve Smith looks poised to
dominate targets in Baltimore this season, but this doesn’t look like his week.
He’ll face rising star Chris Harris
on one side of the field, and while Harris doesn’t mirror specific receivers,
Smith’s outlook isn’t much rosier elsewhere. He’ll also see plenty of Aqib Talib this week. Simply put: Smith
is likely reliant upon a pass-heavy game script to post usable fantasy numbers.
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