Sunday, September 20, 2015

Five Under Five: Last Minute GPP Plays

When I checked my player exposure on the Daily Crusher Mobile App this morning, it became obvious I needed to make some changes to my tournament lineups. As I looked over the player pool with a fresh set of eyes, I convinced myself the following players have paths to big games, and should all be under 5% owned. Here's what my inner-dialogue sounded like:

DeAngelo Williams - $5,300 vs. SF
Everyone loves an unquestioned starting running back playing for a heavy home favorite...unless it's DeAngelo Williams. How come no one wants to acknowledge he ran for 127 yards on 21 carries last week - and looked good doing it? Pittsburgh is a six point home favorite this week, with a 26 point team total. They're coming off extended rest while the 49ers are playing on a short week and flying cross country to play in an early game. The setup is there for the San Francisco defense to play much worse than they did last Monday, when they bottled up Adrian Peterson. If things go the way Vegas is predicting, there's going to be a lot of opportunity for Williams today. Even though Will Johnson vultured a touchdown last week, Williams saw three carries from inside the 10-yard line, so he's got touchdown potential as well.

Nelson Agholor - $5,500 vs. DAL
Agholor is going to be largely ignored this week after looking overwhelmed in his NFL debut. The fact is he had a pretty tough draw, lining up opposite Falcons' stud cornerback Desmond Trufant on many of his routes. The downgrade from Trufant to Dallas cornerbacks Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne is significant. Vegas is predicting fireworks in Eagles-Falcons (55 point O/U), so this is a game to target. All the reasons Agholor was a favorite of many fantasy analysts this summer still exist - he's a talented player and Chip Kelly's primary outside receiver (he played 59 snaps last week, trailing only Jordan Matthews' 63).

Eddie Lacy - $7,200 vs. SEA
No one wants anything to do with Lacy in a tough matchup with Seattle, which is precisely what makes him attractive in GPPs. Like DeAngelo, Lacy is the primary runner on a home team favored by more than a field goal, and projected to score 26 points. Would a multi-touchdown game for Eddie Lacy at home really be all that surprising? Eight of his 13 total touchdowns last year came at Lambeau Field.

Rueben Randle - $4,700 vs. ATL
Randle stunk last week, but so did every Giants receiver. Vegas expects New York to get back on track this week (26.5 point team total), which puts Randle in a nice spot. I mentioned Desmond Trufant a moment ago - he'll have his hands full with Odell Beckham and so will the Falcons' safeties. Randle should see soft coverage and with Victor Cruz out again, the targets should be there.

Joseph Randle - $5,600 @ PHI
Randle received 72% of the Cowboys' carries last week. We know Dallas wants to win by controlling the clock. Without Dez Bryant around to help move the chains, the Cowboys will lean more heavily on the run and the short passing game. You can do worse in a GPP than a low-owned lead back in a game with the week's highest over/under. The Eagles front-seven is tough, but Tevin Coleman didn't fair too poorly against them last week.

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