Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Week 12 College Football MACtion Tuesday-Wednesday Slate Breakdown

It's hard to believe the season is coming to a close. If you haven't tried out college football, this should be a fun two day slate with some high scoring exciting games.


1) Matt Johnson- $8,800- Bowling Green is one of the premiere offenses in the country and Toledo has a great run defense. Where Toledo is weak is the secondary allowing 261 yards per game passing, which should open up some great opportunities for Johnson. The issue is that he is going to be difficult to fit into your roster due to his price. However, if you pair him up with Ryan Graham, the price becomes much more manageable and he is a great cash game play due to this game projected to be very high scoring.

2) Phillip Ely$7,000- If you were to take out the game that Phillip Ely had against Northern Illinois, he has 335 yards passing and 3.7 touchdowns per game over those three previous games. This game is projected to be a high scoring game, and Bowling Green is allowing 270 yards per game which should allow Ely to have tremendous upside. There is some risk though as Toledo has a very balanced offense at times, but Ely has thrown for 35.5 attempts per game since Hunt returned, which as long as he is getting that volume should make him safe for cash games and GPP's. 

3) Ryan Graham- $5,700- Graham is the top punt play on the slate, as he did not see his price increase this week. Making his first home start, Graham should be able to use his dual-threat ability to make value on the ground and through the air. Graham does not have enough upside for GPP's, but should be a nice punt for cash games.

4) Zach Terrell- $7,600- Zach Terrell has not been the same over the last two games, and things don't get any easier this week as he is going on the road to face a Northern Illinois defense that is better than the past two defenses than he has faced. At this price, he is a GPP play only as while he still does have upside based on having two great wide receivers, he is not a cash game play this week.

5) Derrius Vick (If Active)- $5,400- Ball State is 120th in total defense, Derrius Vick is a quarterback who has started running the ball more as ran for 107 yards last week. He is questionable this week, but if he plays he makes a good GPP play.

Running Backs

1) Joel Bouagnon- $7,000- Joel Bouagnon is one of the most consistent running backs in college football as he has ran for over 100 yards in each of his last five games, and has scored a touchdown in all but one game this season. Western Michigan's defense showed how poor they were against the run last week when Travis Greene had the best game of his season with 170 yards and 3 touchdowns.

2) Kareem Hunt- $7,400- Kareem Hunt has returned to 2014 form, as over the last two games he is averaging 127 yards and two touchdowns per game. Bowling Green's defense is not great as they allow 169 yards rushing per game, and Hunt should continue having success. He is a great GPP and cash game play this week.

3) Jamauri Bogan- $5,600- Jamauri has taken over the running back position for Western Michigan as he is averaging 20 carries in each of the last two games. What is even more impressive is that the 5'7'' 174 pound running back has scored 10 touchdowns in his last four games. He runs with a tremendous amount of power and should have a great day this week.

4) Travis Greene- $7,000- Travis Greene burned us last week, as we had him as a GPP only play and he went off for 170 yards and three touchdowns. We aren't letting recency bias factor in here, as we still recommend him only as a GPP play this week, as he is facing a Toledo team that is one of the best run defenses in the country allowing only 114 yards per game on the ground. Greene is finally healthy after dealing with injury most of the season, but due to the matchup we are recommending other plays this week.

Wide Receivers-

1) Roger Lewis- $7,600- If you spend up on Roger Lewis, you're paying for consistency, in seven of his last eight games he has gone over 25 points, which at a discounted $7,600 makes for a great play this week. He is the top option for cash game and GPP's due to his 200 yard upside. Toledo has a very strong run defense, which will force Bowling Green to throw the ball more than the last few weeks in order to score.

2) Kenny Golladay-$6,600- Golladay has taken a major step forward since a key injury to Tommylee Lewis who is questionable for this game although it is looking like he is unlikely to play. Over the last two games, Golladay has is averaging seven receptions for 135 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. He faces a Western Michigan team that has been one of the better teams in the MAC against the pass, but still has a high enough target % rate that he is a top play for this slate.

3) Corey Davis- $7,200- Corey Davis from an actual game standpoint has been tremendous. The issue is for fantasy is that he is not getting into the end zone. He had a three touchdown game two weeks ago and followed that back up with a 13 catch 159 yard performance last week, but without the touchdown upside the floor for Corey Davis is lower than comparable wide receivers such as Roger Lewis. We like Davis a lot due to seeing a high number of targets, but when you're comparing these elite wide receivers you have to differentiate between the smallest thing. The matchup is also worse as he is facing a Northern Illinois team that only allows 222 yards passing per game compared to Toledo's 260 yards per game. He is a tremendous GPP play as he will be under-owned compared to Roger Lewis, but we are not recommending using him in cash games this week.

4) Sebastian Smith $4,900- Sebastian Smith has had a minimum of 11.9 points over his last five games and has had 17 or more points in seven of his last nine games. Ball State has one of the worst defenses in college football allowing 300 yards passing per game, which while we do not expect Ohio to have over 300 yards passing, it still presents a great opportunity for Sebastian to continue the trend of having 17 or more points which would be a great value on this slate.

Cheap Flex Plays Under $4,500
1) Argeros Turner- $4,200

2) Cody Thompson- $3,900
3) Antwan Dixon- $3,900
4) A.J Ouellette- $3,500
4) Ryan Burbrink- $4,500
5) Kevonn Mabon- $4,100
6) Jordan Huff- $3,800

As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @ohiostate241 or check out the Footballguys message boards where we will have slate discussion prior to tonight’s games. Good luck everybody.

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