Wednesday, August 26, 2015

A glimpse at Week 1 QB plays

My Week 1 QB projections have turned out some surprising results in terms of h-value. I'll be discussing them further over the coming weeks, of course, but here are some surprising observations:

Robert Griffin III ($6,400) - Surprisingly, Griffin currently sits #1 on my Week 1 h-value chart. This is a byproduct of the "last three games" model on which my projections are based. Remember, the Dolphins were thoroughly gashed by the pass over the final three weeks of 2014; as a result, Griffin projects to 278 yards through the air. I like that defense, and I don't expect Griffin to necessarily hit that total. But Week 1 is unpredictable, as teams are employing new concepts for the first time and big plays can come in bunches. Miami-Washington has the look of a shootout.

Ryan Tannehill ($7,400) - A cherry matchup against a frankly pathetic pass defense makes Tannehill an excellent play. Washington will be missing Junior Gallette and Bashaud Breeland from an already talent-starved roster. Tannehill could underhand-lob his way to 300 yards.

Colin Kaepernick ($7,000), Cam Newton ($7,600), Marcus Mariota ($6,000) - Upon running the h-value numbers, it seems to me that DraftKings has underpriced these guys' rushing potential. Any would make for a very shrewd GPP play, but Mariota has my eye. If his impressive poise and accuracy carry over from the preseason, he could push for low-end QB1 status in a plus matchup.

As for fades, I'll be avoiding Peyton Manning ($8,200) hard against a Ravens secondary that's recovering from last year's dumpster fire.

More analysis is coming! Stay glued to our extensive Week 1 coverage for the full run of plays and fades, straight from the mouths of the Footballguys.

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