Week 17 Cost Efficiency Breakdown

As always, I took a long look at Week 17 from a cost-efficiency standpoint - who actually produces the most value for your DFS dollar? You'll find the full breakdown here, but take a peek at one of the week's top value plays:

As always, there’s little downside and monstrous upside in Julio Jones, who draws the Saints for Week 17. New Orleans has gotten better cornerback play of late, with youngster Devin Breaux shining in coverage, but we still have to consider Jones the favorite there. Needing 25.5 to cash, Jones is a bit of a stretch in a meaningless game against a talented young cornerback. But his talent level and deep-seeded involvement in his offense ensure that matchup is never a real concern. After all, he notched 140% of that 25.5 cash marker against Josh Norman and the suffocating Panthers last week, and 110% of it against the Vontae Davis-led Colts in Week 11.

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The Contrarian: DraftKings Week 17

If there's ever a great week to employ some contrarian thinking, Week 17 certainly fits the bill. Not only do we have all 32 teams in action, but we also have to decipher the varying levels of motivation for each of them. Some are clear cut: the Jets 'win and in' scenario against the Bills for one example, while several teams can lock down their playoff seeding with a win, including the Panthers, who guarantee themselves home field advantage with a win over the Buccaneers. Then there's Washington, who will move neither up or down with a win or loss and will be limiting snaps for starters, as well as a plethora of teams who have been eliminated from contention.

There are countless ways to approach a challenging week such as this for DFS purposes, but one thing is for certain - finding the week's diamonds in the rough can have a huge impact on our standings on the leaderboards. Each week, The Contrarian goes position by position to help you identify some of the week's hidden gems. Here's a sneak peek at one of Week 17's top contrarian selections:

Frank Gore, $4,000

A disappointing season for the Indianapolis Colts comes to a close this Sunday and will likely lead to several changes for the Colts. The Colts are incredibly banged up and have yet to decide on a starting quarterback for the regular season finale. When the options include Josh Freeman, Ryan Lindley and Stephen Morris, we can be fairly confident that we’ll see a heavy dose of the running game in Week 17, which leads us to Frank Gore as a top contrarian selection at running back. Gore delivered his finest performance of the season last week against the Dolphins and looks to be in line for another solid outing against the Titans, who he ran for two touchdowns against back in Week 3.

You can check out the rest of Week 17's contrarian selections here. 

Tips and Picks, Week 17 Edition

Every week, Footballguy John "tipandpick" Lee spends hours upon hours researching recent NFL trends, personnel matchups, injury situations, and various statistical databases to compile a list of players who are worthy of your attention on DraftKings.com. John evaluates those players and their respective projections to divide them into either cash game or tournament plays based on their salaries and game strategy. The result is a 5,000-word article that not only identifies the players that are most attractive, but details why they made the final cut. Footballguys Subscriber PRO members can read the entire article HERE, but, first, a snippet from the article to give you an idea of what to expect:

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The Fade: DraftKings Week 17 

The final week of the regular season is upon us and it shapes up to be a challenging one with plenty of question marks on playing time for starters and motivations for teams that have been eliminated from contention. Despite the week's challenges, we can still find some success by following the same principles we have used to guide us through Weeks 1 through 16, including which players we may want to take a pass on. Here's a sneak peek at one of Week 17's top fade candidates:

Devonta Freeman, $7,600

The highest-priced running back of the week may actually be in line to justify his price tag in the expected shootout between the Saints and Falcons. Although Freeman has cooled considerably from his blistering pace in Weeks 3 through 6, he still offers tremendous upside and brings an average of 22.4 points per game to the table. The Saints defense has resembled a sieve for much of the season, including Week 6 when Freeman contributed 156 combined yards and two scores for a cool 38.6 points. Despite the hefty price tag, Freeman will be highly owned and for good reason – there’s a solid chance that he comes in as Week 17’s most productive running back. Difficult as it may be, we’ll have to consider fading Freeman for a little differentiation for our lineups. 

You can check out the rest of Week 17's fade candidates here.  

Starting Stacks

Last week of the NFL regular season! Can you think of a better way to start the new year than to win a large GPP tournament? Here is a sample from our starting stacks article:

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Team Total 28.5 points

QB Cam Newton $7,500-TE Greg Olsen $6,800 Total Stack $14,300 (28.6% of salary)

QB Cam Newton $7,500-WR Devin Funchess $3,400 Total Stack $10,900 (21.8% of salary)

The Panthers are 10.5 point home favorites vs. the Buccaneers. The Panthers have one of the highest team totals of the week at 28.5 points. After suffering their first loss of the season last week, the Panthers will be motivated to regain their momentum before heading into the playoffs. The Panthers have additional motivation as they are still competing for the number one overall playoff spot in the NFC Conference. Cam Newton has been lights-out at home this season averaging 26.7 fantasy points/per game. Ted Ginn did not practice on Friday and is expected to miss the game due to a knee injury. This means that there will be some additional targets available for the Panthers receivers. Greg Olsen has been the most consistent weapon in the passing game averaging 15.6 fantasy points/per game. Devin Funchess is an alternative cheap option that should carry a low ownership percentage.

Here is the entire article:

Starting Stacks

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 17

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of this week's player analysis:

Aaron Rodgers - $6,800 vs. MIN (5% Owned or Less)

Trusting the Packers offense has gotten me in plenty of trouble this year, but I can’t resist rostering Rodgers at $1,800 less than his Week 1 price. Despite his struggles this year, Rodgers still ranks as the cumulative QB8 and Green Bay is in a great bounceback spot after getting slaughtered on the road in Arizona last week. The stench of that ugly loss will keep most entrants off Rodgers, but he’s playing at home (where his fantasy points per game have increased by 25% over the last two seasons), the Packers are favored to win, and their implied team total of 25 points is enough to allow for a big game. Minnesota’s pass defense is solid, but 76% of the touchdowns they’ve allowed this season have come via the pass (third-highest in the league).

Week 17 Punt Plays

Week 17 Punt Plays

Every week John Lee, Cecil Lammey and I (Jeff Pasquino) discuss our punt plays for DraftKings on The Audible to close out our weekly DFS DraftKings podcast.  These are players that we are looking at to fill in a last spot on our lineups that are relatively cheap.  We have all been there - we have only a few bucks left and 1-2 spots to go in our roster, and we need a good value play to fill in that gap.  The rules we play by are that the player must not cost more than $3,500.

Just like always, I can only use one on the show - and I am not going to steal the thunder from our three picks that make the airwaves - but I will share a few guys that did not make it for the final cut.  Last week we all took the Giants, but only Rueben Randle paid off.  This week is trickier, but I think that there are some interesting values.  Who exactly? You have to listen!  So, tune in for my pick this week, and give the following list of additional punt plays for this week a read and tell me what you think, either in the comments or on twitter (@JeffPasquino).   Here goes:

Jonas Gray, RB, Jaguars ($3,000) - Rumor has it that the Jaguars want to get Gray a good look this week.  For this cheap, if he gets 15+ touches, cash and GPP value are both within reach against the Texans.

Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers ($3,500) - Not a sexy pick, but San Francisco has been playing pretty well of late, and Boldin gets plenty of targets.  Grabbing 4-6 passes for 50-70 yards will create plenty of value here against St. Louis.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings ($3,500) -  This is more of a late swap value play, as the Vikings may not be going all out on Sunday Night Football if they can get the Redskins in the Wild Card round.  Throw in that Adrian Peterson may lock up the rushing title and Minnesota can rest him in favor of McKinnon, who is healthier than ADP.

Steven Jackson, RB, Patriots ($3,300) - New England wants to get ready for another Super Bowl run, and what better way can they do that than to see what Steven Jackson has left in the tank in Week 17?  Running against Miami is a good test to see what he can offer for the postseason.

Jeremy Butler, WR, Ravens ($3,500) - Baltimore is truly playing out the string, but Butler has been seeing a lot of targets of late and both Butler and Ryan Mallett are playing for 2016 jobs.  Not a bad choice here for a player who is motivated against a Bengals team that will be forcing Baltimore to throw.

Jaelen Strong, WR, Texans ($3,000) - Could be worth the gamble to take the rookie wide receiver for Houston as they have nothing to play for and could be resting other guys while they get a look at the young talent.

Thanks for reading as always, and be sure to check out The DraftKings' Audible episode every week, and subscribe to The Audible on iTunes.  Good luck this week!