Don't let the slate start up without checking in on the Divisional Round Cost Efficiency Breakdown. Find the hidden gems and otherwise shrewd plays, salary-wise, for the NFL weekend.
Here's a sample breakdown:
It’s hard to go wrong choosing between Michael Floyd and John Brown, two elite big-play threats on the league’s most dynamic offense. But the week’s largest Vegas scoring projection deserves representation in your lineup, and luckily for us, both come very cheaply (either would need 15 points to cash). Floyd, the safer and preferred cash game target, closed the season with an absolute flourish, topping 100 yards five times from Weeks 10-16 and building a moderately solid volume outlook (eight targets per game over that span), as well. Brown hasn’t been breaking open downfield much, but he’s been an elite red zone producer of late, finding the end zone in each of the Cardinals’ last three meaningful games. He deserves real GPP consideration, but doesn’t look cash-ready.
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Saturday, January 16, 2016
Friday, January 15, 2016
Divisional Round Punt Plays
Divisional Round Punt Plays
Every week John Lee, Cecil Lammey and I (Jeff Pasquino) discuss our punt plays for DraftKings on The Audible to close out our weekly DFS DraftKings podcast. These are players that we are looking at to fill in a last spot on our lineups that are relatively cheap. We have all been there - we have only a few bucks left and 1-2 spots to go in our roster, and we need a good value play to fill in that gap. The rules we play by are that the player must not cost more than $3,500.
Just like always, I can only use one on the show - and I am not going to steal the thunder from our three picks that make the airwaves - but I will share a few guys that did not make it for the final cut. With such a small slate (four games) this week, there are not that many - but there are still a few to consider. So who did I pick on the show? You have to listen! So, tune in for my pick this week, and give the following list of additional punt plays for this week a read and tell me what you think, either in the comments or on twitter (@JeffPasquino). Here goes:
Steven Jackson, RB, Patriots ($3,300) - Rumor has it that the Patriots want to get Steven Jackson going this week to spark a New England ground game, and they could need him if Gronkowski either cannot play or is at less than full strength.
Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks ($3,200) - Carolina will blanket Doug Martin, so someone else has to step up to help Russell Wilson. Jermaine Kearse could easily be that guy. He has had 20 targets over the past four weeks, resulting in 16 catches and two scores over that period. He's on the field plenty, so he looks like a reasonable roll of the dice.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Steelers ($3,000) - With Pittsburgh now having to play without Antonio Brown, it will be all hands on deck for the receivers. That means DHB moves up to #3 in the pecking order. The question is, will it be all hands, or all stone hands?
Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs ($3,000) - If Spencer Ware is unable to go, Davis makes for a reasonable punt this week. Davis was the RB2 last week for the Chiefs with Ware sidelined, rushing to close out the game, and he led off the game with a kick return for a touchdown. Pairing him with the Kansas City defense is a bold contrarian move that could pay off big if he returns another kickoff.
Scott Chandler, TE, Patriots ($2,600) - New England wants Rob Gronkowski to be ready, but if he misses this game (or is limited), Chandler is a competent understudy. One touchdown catch makes 3x value for Chandler, which is not unreasonable at all if he moves up the depth chart for Saturday.
Thanks for reading as always, and be sure to check out The DraftKings' Audible episode every week, and subscribe to The Audible on iTunes. Good luck this week!
Divisional Round GPP Breakdown: Saturday Games
Before we get into this week’s plays, some lessons from last week’s results:
There’s very little to like outside of Travis Kelce ($5,100) on the Chiefs offense. Kelce exploded for 8-128-0 last week and tied a season-high with 10 targets. With Jeremy Maclin likely limited, Kelce would become Kansas City’s top receiving option. New England was a tough draw for opposing tight ends this season, but they have given up a combined four touchdowns to Zach Ertz, Delanie Walker, and Jordan Cameron in their last five games.
Running back is ugly enough that I was looking forward to using Charcandrick West ($5,500) in a bad matchup, but Spencer Ware ($4,500) returned to practice Thursday and would seem on track to play through his ankle injury. As long as Ware suits up, I won’t have much exposure to either Kansas City running back on the road in Foxborough, where the Chiefs are five point underdogs. It makes sense to have a few shares of Ware if you’re building multiple GPP lineups. He has 32 carries to West’s 21 over the last two games and there’s always a possibility he’ll fall forward for a few yards into the end zone.
Alex Smith ($5,400) simply doesn’t have the ceiling to win you a tournament, and that’s especially true this week with Kansas City projected by Vegas to score less than 19 points. Any upside he possessed is dinged by Maclin’s injury. I can’t envision Maclin being effective even if he plays, which could open the door for Albert Wilson ($3,800) as a GPP dart. Wilson would have been a more popular play this week if Alex Smith hadn’t overthrown him on what would have been a 58-yard touchdown against the Texans. With so many viable wide receiver options to choose from, I don’t see the need to roster Chris Conley ($3,000) unless Maclin sits.
The Chiefs Defense ($4,000) has scored less than eight fantasy points just once since Week 7, but there’s too many big home favorites on the slate to trust them in this spot.
As long as the knee injury that held Rob Gronkowski ($7,500) out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday checks out, he’s my favorite GPP play on the Patriots side of the ball. Kansas City ranked second in pass defense DVOA to opposing tight ends and allowed the least overall fantasy points to the position, but Gronk is no ordinary tight end. Considering Gronkowski’s knee injury (which reportedly required a pain killing injection), price (he’s more expensive than the WR2), mediocre performances in his last two games, and the presence of Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce in the player pool, we should get a break on his ownership percentage. I wouldn’t sweat Gronk's last two game logs -- the Patriots were being very careful not to put him in a position where he could get hurt (a plan which apparently didn't work out very well).
Kansas City has a stout run defense and the Patriots will be trotting out 32 year old Steven Jackson ($3,300) at running back. Jackson is cheap and had 15 touches (including a touchdown) at Miami in Week 17, but unless he scores multiple touchdowns, he probably won’t reach double-digit fantasy points in this matchup. Maybe he’s worth a shot in about 10% of your lineups, on the chance New England blows Kansas City’s doors completely off and goes run-heavy in the second half. If the Patriots decide not to test the Chiefs run defense, I’d expect James White ($5,200) to play a major role in the short passing game. White scored between 14 and 31 fantasy points in each game from Weeks 13 to 16. Adding him to a Patriots stack is a nice way to squeeze a little extra juice out of Tom Brady if the New England offense has a big game.
Tom Brady ($7,400) is a very interesting tournament option this week. I expect Carson Palmer and Cam Newton to be heavily-owned, and the crowd might hesitate to use Brady after his terrible last two games of the regular season. But offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer (who got hurt during the Patriots Week 16 loss) will be back, which is a huge plus for Brady’s chances of withstanding the Chiefs pass rush. Brady will also get Julian Edelman ($7,100) back for this game. Over the last two seasons, Brady’s fantasy points per game are 50% higher in the 23 games he’s played with Edelman than the nine games he’s played without him.
As for Edelman, I expect we won’t see his ownership percentage get too high due his price (WR2) and the uncertainty surrounding his injury. Personally, I’m not too concerned about either. Edelman has flashed a 25-30 point ceiling on several occasions this season, and he’s been practicing for over a month. The matchup against Kansas City’s cornerbacks is winnable enough to support a big game. As far as GPP flyers go, you can do worse than Brandon LaFell ($4,000). The weakness of Kansas City’s secondary has been on the perimeter most of the year, and that’s where LaFell lines up on about 80% of his routes. LaFell has been appallingly bad this season, but he’s at least a theoretical red zone threat on a team with the third-most red zone scoring attempts. Danny Amendola ($5,500) isn’t really on my radar, but he should be healthy and he’s had some good games with Edelman in the lineup this season. If the Patriots have the quick passing game humming, Amendola could see 6-8 targets, which would make him a fine contrarian option for your Brady stacks.
The Patriots Defense ($3,500) is right there with the Broncos as my preferred D/ST unit. New England trailed only Denver in sacks per game this season, while Chiefs quarterbacks were sacked on 9% of their offensive plays -- the third highest rate in the league. Alex Smith will be overmatched in Foxborough and the Patriots should roll to an easy win, which points to a strong day for their defense.
The most common roster construction this week is likely to include Carson Palmer ($6,500), David Johnson ($6,000), and at least one Cardinals wide receiver. But if you’re looking to go contrarian, fading the Cardinals skill players isn’t the place to do it. Arizona is this week’s biggest favorite (-7) and they have the highest implied team total (28.5 points) by a wide margin over New England (23.75 points). Don’t be afraid to play Palmer and Johnson in a lineup together due to worries about negative correlation between quarterbacks and running backs from the same team. They are the top plays at their respective positions, and it’s not like there are many viable pivots (especially at running back). Besides, Johnson is such a talented receiver (at least three catches and 31 receiving yards in every game since Week 14), he’s much more likely to help Palmer’s numbers than hurt them.
Michael Floyd ($5,100) has been a favorite play of mine for most of the season. His salary is still nowhere close to reflecting his expected production against a Green Bay team he torched for 111 yards in Week 16. It looks like Floyd will have to contend with cornerback Sam Shields who missed the last four games with a concussion, but Shields may not be 100% after such a long layoff, and no one’s confusing him with Josh Norman anyway. John Brown ($5,200) should enjoy favorable coverage from rookie Damarious Randall on the majority of his routes. According to Pro Football Focus, Randall has allowed the third-most fantasy points per route defended among the cornerbacks on this week’s slate. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen Brown’s 30 point ceiling, but he’s settled in as a high-floor option (11 games with at least double-digit fantasy points) who has the potential to go nuclear in any given week. I won’t have much Larry Fitzgerald ($6,500) since he’s comparatively expensive, Arizona’s other receivers possess higher ceilings, and he faces a difficult matchup in the slot with Casey Hayward. But I will be using Fitzgerald to cut the chalk in some spots based on high target volume and the possibility the bye week returns him to early season form.
The Cardinals Defense ($3,800) has as high a ceiling as exists for a D/ST, but I don’t plan on having much exposure with better options on the board and high potential for this game to turn into a shootout.
The Packers are my preferred underdog to use players from due to the aforementioned shootout potential in their matchup with the Cardinals. After watching Green Bay’s offensive line hold off Washington’s solid pass rush, it’s doubtful we’ll see a repeat of the nine-sack performance that doomed the Packers to a 38-8 loss in their Week 16 visit to Arizona. Aaron Rodgers ($6,700) and the Green Bay offense have to be feeling more confident after their convincing Wildcard win, and they should be playing with a collective chip on their shoulder to get some revenge for that Week 16 drubbing. I’ll definitely be building some Rodgers-centric lineups in hopes the best quarterback in the game can keep the positive momentum going.
With Davante Adams likely out (addition by subtraction), Randall Cobb ($5,900) will line up on the outside more and see plenty of stud cornerback Patrick Peterson, but James Jones ($4,600) and Jared Abbrederis ($3,000) should help Rodgers’ cause. Jones saw a team-high 11 targets last week, which was consistent with his usage over the last four games of the regular season (team-leading 28% target market share). The combination of Jones’ guaranteed volume and big play ability (his 18 receptions of 20+ yards ranked 11th-best this season) makes him one of the best point per dollar values on the slate for the second consecutive week. Assuming Abbrederis takes Cobb’s place in the slot in three-receiver sets (he’s lined up there on 87% of his routes this year), he’ll enjoy coverage from Tyrann Mathieu replacement, Jerraud Powers. According to Pro Football Focus, Powers has allowed the second-most fantasy points per route defended among the cornerbacks on this week’s slate. You can do much worse for a minimum salary punt than the receiver seeing high percentage passes from Aaron Rodgers.
With Gronk, Olsen, Kelce and Heath Miller destined to tie up 95% of the tight end traffic, Richard Rodgers ($4,000) makes for an interesting contrarian play. When you adjust for strength of schedule, the Cardinals were one of the worst teams in football at defending the tight end. Over the last five weeks of the season, Arizona allowed over 35% more fantasy points per game to the position than the league average. With Adams out of the lineup, Rodgers could also be called upon for additional targets.
Running back is ugly behind David Johnson, so both Eddie Lacy ($4,400) and James Starks ($4,000) are worth a look. The duo combined for a 2.83x salary multiplier last week, which was actually pretty good considering the alternatives. It's tough to forecast much success for either Green Bay running back on the ground against Arizona's second-rated rush defense (DVOA). Either player would be best used in a unique roster construction along with Aaron Rodgers in hopes they can take a screen pass to the house (like Lacy did against the Cardinals in Week 16).
The Packers Defense ($3,400) doesn’t belong anywhere near your lineup this week.
Check back on Saturday for some analysis on Sunday’s games (Seahawks @ Panthers and Steelers @ Broncos).
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- I theorized last week, "If you want to have any shot at a deep run in tournaments, you’ll need to surround your core of chalk plays with at least two under-the-radar players (think 20% owned or less on such a short slate) and probably more depending on the size of the field." I was only partially right.
- Last week’s winning Millionaire Maker lineup included four players who were owned by less than 20% of the field. Nine out of the 10 top scoring rosters did indeed include at least two players under 20% owned.
- However, there was another path to a unique roster -- one that could be repeated this week. Travis Kelce was the only player under 20% owned in the lineup that finished in a seven-way tie for third place in the Millionaire Maker. Those seven entrants used Kelce in the flex next to Jordan Reed and passed up huge chunks of the field when both tight ends exploded for big games. Last week’s results are likely to make flexing a tight end more popular this week (especially with Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, and Kelce on the slate), but foregoing a running back or wide receiver in the flex will never sit well with the majority of entrants. Rostering two tight ends is once again a viable strategy for differentiating your tournament lineups in the divisional round.
- It wasn’t just low-owned players, or unique roster construction that won all the money last week. You had to go down to 52nd place in the Millionaire Maker to find a lineup that didn’t include the highest-owned quarterback (Kirk Cousins - 31.8%), wide receiver (Antonio Brown - 66.2%), and tight end (Jordan Reed - 54%). Let this serve as a reminder that you don’t need to stray too far from the beaten path when building lineups this week -- especially now that we have four new teams full of well-rested, well-prepared players. You’ll want to build your core around the obvious plays on the home favorites this week and once again seek out a differentiator or two, whether it be in player selection or roster construction.
Chiefs
Running back is ugly enough that I was looking forward to using Charcandrick West ($5,500) in a bad matchup, but Spencer Ware ($4,500) returned to practice Thursday and would seem on track to play through his ankle injury. As long as Ware suits up, I won’t have much exposure to either Kansas City running back on the road in Foxborough, where the Chiefs are five point underdogs. It makes sense to have a few shares of Ware if you’re building multiple GPP lineups. He has 32 carries to West’s 21 over the last two games and there’s always a possibility he’ll fall forward for a few yards into the end zone.
Alex Smith ($5,400) simply doesn’t have the ceiling to win you a tournament, and that’s especially true this week with Kansas City projected by Vegas to score less than 19 points. Any upside he possessed is dinged by Maclin’s injury. I can’t envision Maclin being effective even if he plays, which could open the door for Albert Wilson ($3,800) as a GPP dart. Wilson would have been a more popular play this week if Alex Smith hadn’t overthrown him on what would have been a 58-yard touchdown against the Texans. With so many viable wide receiver options to choose from, I don’t see the need to roster Chris Conley ($3,000) unless Maclin sits.
The Chiefs Defense ($4,000) has scored less than eight fantasy points just once since Week 7, but there’s too many big home favorites on the slate to trust them in this spot.
Patriots
Kansas City has a stout run defense and the Patriots will be trotting out 32 year old Steven Jackson ($3,300) at running back. Jackson is cheap and had 15 touches (including a touchdown) at Miami in Week 17, but unless he scores multiple touchdowns, he probably won’t reach double-digit fantasy points in this matchup. Maybe he’s worth a shot in about 10% of your lineups, on the chance New England blows Kansas City’s doors completely off and goes run-heavy in the second half. If the Patriots decide not to test the Chiefs run defense, I’d expect James White ($5,200) to play a major role in the short passing game. White scored between 14 and 31 fantasy points in each game from Weeks 13 to 16. Adding him to a Patriots stack is a nice way to squeeze a little extra juice out of Tom Brady if the New England offense has a big game.
Tom Brady ($7,400) is a very interesting tournament option this week. I expect Carson Palmer and Cam Newton to be heavily-owned, and the crowd might hesitate to use Brady after his terrible last two games of the regular season. But offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer (who got hurt during the Patriots Week 16 loss) will be back, which is a huge plus for Brady’s chances of withstanding the Chiefs pass rush. Brady will also get Julian Edelman ($7,100) back for this game. Over the last two seasons, Brady’s fantasy points per game are 50% higher in the 23 games he’s played with Edelman than the nine games he’s played without him.
As for Edelman, I expect we won’t see his ownership percentage get too high due his price (WR2) and the uncertainty surrounding his injury. Personally, I’m not too concerned about either. Edelman has flashed a 25-30 point ceiling on several occasions this season, and he’s been practicing for over a month. The matchup against Kansas City’s cornerbacks is winnable enough to support a big game. As far as GPP flyers go, you can do worse than Brandon LaFell ($4,000). The weakness of Kansas City’s secondary has been on the perimeter most of the year, and that’s where LaFell lines up on about 80% of his routes. LaFell has been appallingly bad this season, but he’s at least a theoretical red zone threat on a team with the third-most red zone scoring attempts. Danny Amendola ($5,500) isn’t really on my radar, but he should be healthy and he’s had some good games with Edelman in the lineup this season. If the Patriots have the quick passing game humming, Amendola could see 6-8 targets, which would make him a fine contrarian option for your Brady stacks.
The Patriots Defense ($3,500) is right there with the Broncos as my preferred D/ST unit. New England trailed only Denver in sacks per game this season, while Chiefs quarterbacks were sacked on 9% of their offensive plays -- the third highest rate in the league. Alex Smith will be overmatched in Foxborough and the Patriots should roll to an easy win, which points to a strong day for their defense.
Cardinals
Michael Floyd ($5,100) has been a favorite play of mine for most of the season. His salary is still nowhere close to reflecting his expected production against a Green Bay team he torched for 111 yards in Week 16. It looks like Floyd will have to contend with cornerback Sam Shields who missed the last four games with a concussion, but Shields may not be 100% after such a long layoff, and no one’s confusing him with Josh Norman anyway. John Brown ($5,200) should enjoy favorable coverage from rookie Damarious Randall on the majority of his routes. According to Pro Football Focus, Randall has allowed the third-most fantasy points per route defended among the cornerbacks on this week’s slate. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen Brown’s 30 point ceiling, but he’s settled in as a high-floor option (11 games with at least double-digit fantasy points) who has the potential to go nuclear in any given week. I won’t have much Larry Fitzgerald ($6,500) since he’s comparatively expensive, Arizona’s other receivers possess higher ceilings, and he faces a difficult matchup in the slot with Casey Hayward. But I will be using Fitzgerald to cut the chalk in some spots based on high target volume and the possibility the bye week returns him to early season form.
The Cardinals Defense ($3,800) has as high a ceiling as exists for a D/ST, but I don’t plan on having much exposure with better options on the board and high potential for this game to turn into a shootout.
Packers
With Davante Adams likely out (addition by subtraction), Randall Cobb ($5,900) will line up on the outside more and see plenty of stud cornerback Patrick Peterson, but James Jones ($4,600) and Jared Abbrederis ($3,000) should help Rodgers’ cause. Jones saw a team-high 11 targets last week, which was consistent with his usage over the last four games of the regular season (team-leading 28% target market share). The combination of Jones’ guaranteed volume and big play ability (his 18 receptions of 20+ yards ranked 11th-best this season) makes him one of the best point per dollar values on the slate for the second consecutive week. Assuming Abbrederis takes Cobb’s place in the slot in three-receiver sets (he’s lined up there on 87% of his routes this year), he’ll enjoy coverage from Tyrann Mathieu replacement, Jerraud Powers. According to Pro Football Focus, Powers has allowed the second-most fantasy points per route defended among the cornerbacks on this week’s slate. You can do much worse for a minimum salary punt than the receiver seeing high percentage passes from Aaron Rodgers.
With Gronk, Olsen, Kelce and Heath Miller destined to tie up 95% of the tight end traffic, Richard Rodgers ($4,000) makes for an interesting contrarian play. When you adjust for strength of schedule, the Cardinals were one of the worst teams in football at defending the tight end. Over the last five weeks of the season, Arizona allowed over 35% more fantasy points per game to the position than the league average. With Adams out of the lineup, Rodgers could also be called upon for additional targets.
Running back is ugly behind David Johnson, so both Eddie Lacy ($4,400) and James Starks ($4,000) are worth a look. The duo combined for a 2.83x salary multiplier last week, which was actually pretty good considering the alternatives. It's tough to forecast much success for either Green Bay running back on the ground against Arizona's second-rated rush defense (DVOA). Either player would be best used in a unique roster construction along with Aaron Rodgers in hopes they can take a screen pass to the house (like Lacy did against the Cardinals in Week 16).
The Packers Defense ($3,400) doesn’t belong anywhere near your lineup this week.
Check back on Saturday for some analysis on Sunday’s games (Seahawks @ Panthers and Steelers @ Broncos).
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Saturday, January 9, 2016
The Contrarian: DraftKings Wild Card Weekend
It's always a good idea to employ some contrarian thinking when building your tournament lineups, but maybe even more so when we're looking at a short slate such as this weekend. With only four games on tap, we can expect the week's chalk plays to have an even larger ownership percentage than normal.To separate our lineups from the pack, we'll need to pivot away from some of this weekends most popular plays and replace them with some lower owned players with comparable upside - and in a perfect world, perhaps our lower owned selections can outperform the chalk plays we pivot away from. Results like this can have a huge bearing on our standings on the leader boards and turn an already enjoyable weekend of playoff games into one to remember.
This week, The Contrarian walks you through each of this weekends games from a contrarian perspective to help you zero in on where the public's interest will lay for DFS purposes. We also provide you with our choices for the top contrarian plays at each position. Here's a sneak peek at our breakdown of the quarterback position from a contrarian perspective:
QUARTERBACKS
As we alluded to earlier, the veteran signal caller with the game manager reputation usually attracts very little interest and this week will be no different with a tough matchup with the Houston Texans on tap. While Smith rarely sets the world on fire, he offers consistent production at a reasonable price. He’s thrown for two touchdowns and rushed for 50+ yards in each of his past two games and is averaging a respectable 17.6 points per game this season. Flashing back to Week 1 against these same Houston Texans, Smith threw for three touchdowns en route to 23.22 fantasy points. A lot has changed since then of course for both teams, but a Chiefs squad that has cruised into the playoffs on a wave of ten consecutive victories just may surprise some folks with their productivity on Saturday.
Other Quarterbacks Deserving Contrarian Consideration
A.J. McCarron, $5,200: The Bengals could be forced into a shootout with a Steelers team that may be airing it out on the regular this Sunday, pointing us to some nice upside for McCarron.
Teddy Bridgewater, $5,100: This is definitely a boom-bust contrarian selection and not for the faint of heart as we discussed earlier, but it’s always nice to be the guy who takes down a GPP with an outside the box quarterback. You can check out the rest of this week's contrarian selections here. Best of luck this weekend and enjoy the games!
The Fade: DraftKings Wild Card Weekend
With only four games on the docket, Wild Card weekend can seem like a breeze at first glance. While it's certainly much more manageable than a full slate of games, it can be anything but a breeze to put together a lineup capable of making some noise in a GPP. A limited player pool will lead to plenty of overlap among lineups as the 'must-plays' and 'can't miss' players are readily apparent to everyone, making it all the more difficult to create a lineup that stands out from the crowd.Even on this limited slate, we'll have to take a pass on some of the week's chalk plays and replace them with some lower owned players with comparable upside to give our lineups a fighting chance. It can be pretty tough to fade some of the top plays of the week with such a limited player pool, but the good news is we don't have to fade them all. Players that you have your heart set on should certainly take up residence in your lineups while you seek out some uniqueness elsewhere.
This week's edition of The Fade walks through all four of this weekend's Wild Card games to point out the players who will be on the short list for lineup consideration of many DFSers. Here's a sneak peek at our breakdown of the week's projected most popular quarterbacks:
QUARTERBACKS
Ben Roethlisberger, $7,200
It’s neck-and-neck between the week’s two most expensive quarterbacks for the top fade candidate spot, but we’ll give the nod to Ben Roethlisberger over Russell Wilson by a nose. The high-powered Steelers offense is one of the most attractive targets for DFS purposes due to their ability to accumulate a plethora of yardage and points. As mentioned earlier, the absence of DeAngelo Williams may actually result in an increase in interest for Roethlisberger, who will be expected to be in full-on air it out mode to compensate for the uncertainty at running back. Roethlisberger looks tough to pass on at first glance, but if we dig into the two previous meetings with the Bengals we’ll find that he’s only thrown for one score versus four picks. He may very well deliver a much better return this Saturday Night, but if we’re looking for a spot to separate our lineups from the pack, quarterback is always a great place to start.
Other QB’s That Deserve Fade Consideration
Russell Wilson, $7,000: The allure of a repeat of Week 13’s 34.06-point outing against these same Vikings will be a little too much to pass on for many DFSers this weekend.
Kirk Cousins, $5,900: Cousins is on a roll and comes in at a very reasonable price, which will inspire many to click the plus sign next to his name while finalizing lineups.
You can check out the rest of this week's top fade candidates here.
Cost Efficiency on Wild Card Weekend
Don't let your contests kick off before you've hit the Wild Card Cost Efficiency Breakdown. It'll guide you through the weekend's true value plays, like this guy:
Kansas City has all but sworn off throwing the ball in the red zone (just seven attempts over the past four weeks). That means their backs, specifically short-yardage option Spencer Ware, are always firmly in play for GPPs. Ware is a bit overpriced for his floor – he does split touches with a more talented Charcandrick West – but a game favoring Kansas City would suggest plenty of rushes and red zone trips to go around. If he can find the end zone twice against Houston, Ware would only need 25-35 scrimmage yards to reach GPP value. And he finished the season with a TD flourish, scoring six times over his final eight games.
Get that and every other cost-based value at the link above, and stick around for the rest of our comprehensive weekly DraftKings coverage!
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Kansas City has all but sworn off throwing the ball in the red zone (just seven attempts over the past four weeks). That means their backs, specifically short-yardage option Spencer Ware, are always firmly in play for GPPs. Ware is a bit overpriced for his floor – he does split touches with a more talented Charcandrick West – but a game favoring Kansas City would suggest plenty of rushes and red zone trips to go around. If he can find the end zone twice against Houston, Ware would only need 25-35 scrimmage yards to reach GPP value. And he finished the season with a TD flourish, scoring six times over his final eight games.
Get that and every other cost-based value at the link above, and stick around for the rest of our comprehensive weekly DraftKings coverage!
Follow @JustinHoweFF
Friday, January 8, 2016
Wildcard Weekend Contrarian Plays
The weekly column I wrote for Footballguys subscribers this season focused on why projecting ownership percentage in large field GPPs is important, which players to target based on low ownership, and which highly owned players shouldn’t be faded despite their popularity.
For playoff contests, I felt the need to do things a bit differently. The concept of ownership percentage takes on added importance when constructing lineups on a four game slate. With the player pool so thin, even casual entrants can easily construct a roster made up of the most reliable and/or highest upside players. Whereas on a 16 game slate these “chalk plays” (think Antonio Brown this week) might be around 30% owned, on a short slate we can expect them to appear on 50%-70% of rosters (or more).
More so than in a normal GPP, missing out on just one highly-owned player who has a big day will dig your team a hole too deep to climb out of. And even if you have that player in your lineup, they’ll be lighting it up for nearly every other team in the tournament. So while getting a 40 point game from Antonio Brown this week is great, it will only keep you afloat -- not get you to the top of the standings. If you want to have any shot at a deep run in tournaments this week, you’ll need to surround your core of chalk plays with at least two under-the-radar players (think 20% owned or less on such a short slate) and probably more depending on the size of the field.
If you’re familiar with GPP game theory, none of this is earth shattering. But since the importance of hitting on low-owned players is amplified in playoff contests, that’s where I want to place my focus over the next few weeks. Here is one high variance option from each team that can help separate your rosters from the pack:
Packers @ Redskins
James Jones - $4,100
When I began researching the slate, Jones jumped out to me as a glaring value. Unfortunately, after jumping on some Roundtable discussions with the other Footballguys (namely John Lee) it became apparent I wasn’t alone, which leaves me guessing Jones will be a more popular play than I first anticipated. That being said, I’m still going out of my way to roster him. Jones has quietly become Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver over the last four weeks (not coincidentally since Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties). He leads Green Bay in target market share (27.97%), red zone targets (six), receiving yards (279), and yards per reception (14.7) in that span. Football Outsiders ranks Washington 30th against WR2s in their pass defense DVOA metric, and Jones will run the majority of his routes against undrafted free agent rookie Quentin Dunbar, who Pro Football Focus grades as the third-worst cornerback on the slate. Washington has been burned for pass plays of 20+ yards 58 times this season (sixth-most in the league), while Jones’ 18 receptions of 20+ yards rank him 11th among pass catchers.
Pierre Garcon - $4,200
I’m planning on having low exposure to all Washington players, so coming up with one to write about was a struggle. My gut tells me Kirk Cousins will come crashing down to earth against a strong Green Bay defense and Aaron Rodgers will right the ship (to a degree), leading Green Bay to an easy win in Washington. Jordan Reed will get a lot of traffic based on his recent usage and production (rightfully so), but if he’s 50% owned, going in a different direction at tight end is an easy way to differentiate from the field. Garcon is no great shakes in this matchup, but he’s second on the team in targets over the last four weeks and has caught a touchdown in each of the last three games (two of which came on six red zone targets). As of Thursday, Sam Shields (Green Bay’s best cornerback by a wide margin) was surprisingly still in the league’s concussion protocol after missing three consecutive games. If Shields is once again forced to sit, Garcon becomes far more interesting.
Seahawks @ Vikings
Jermaine Kearse - $3,300
Russell Wilson is likely to be right there with Ben Roethlisberger as most popular quarterback this weekend, but Kearse will check in behind both Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett in terms of ownership. Not only is Kearse the cheapest and most unique way to gain exposure to Wilson, he might be the best option outside of Baldwin. Kearse and Lockett’s target share and fantasy point totals are nearly identical over the last four games. Since Week 12, Kearse has failed to score double digit fantasy points only once, and on the season he’s the second-most frequently targeted Seahawks receiver in the red zone. There’s clear risk here as Kearse was held completely out of the box score in his last meeting with Minnesota, but the Vikings have made a habit of allowing big games to complementary wide receivers in recent weeks, and Kearse is coming in hot. Out of all the players listed in this article, I’ll have the heaviest exposure to Kearse and James Jones.
Kyle Rudolph - $3,500
I’m expecting Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and Travis Kelce to account for about 80% of the tight end ownership, which means you’d really be cutting the chalk with Rudolph. While Rudolph might not have a high ceiling (and definitely has a scary low floor), he does have touchdown potential which is all you can ask for at his price and projected ownership. The Vikings may not pass much in the red zone, but when they do Teddy Bridgewater looks to Rudolph first. Rudolph’s 41% red zone target market share ranks fifth-highest in the NFL (albeit on only 11 targets), and four out of his five touchdowns this season have come in home games. Seattle ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA vs. tight ends and have allowed eight touchdowns to the position (10th-most in the league), so the matchup is favorable. I’m also expecting Seattle to put up plenty of points in this game, which should force Bridgewater to pass more frequently than usual. Jerick McKinnon also makes sense as a low exposure dart throw for Minnesota on the chance Adrian Peterson re-injures his back or ankle early in the game.
Chiefs @ Texans
Albert Wilson - $3,500
The case for Wilson is admittedly a little thin, but outside of Jeremy Maclin (who will be high-owned in a terrible matchup) and Travis Kelce (who isn’t a chalk play, but won’t be low-owned either), it’s tough to find a player on the Chiefs worth rostering. Wilson has at least been involved in Kansas City’s game plan recently. His target share over the last four weeks is above 20%, which has worked out to between four and six looks per game. We also know he’ll be on the field, as his snap count hasn’t dipped below 70% in any of the past four games. Wilson has played well this season (relative to the Chiefs run-first offense), and he flashed the 18 point ceiling we’re looking for at his price tag in Week 14 against San Diego. His primary one-one-one matchup with Texans cornerback Kevin Johnson is winnable -- according to Pro Football Focus, Johnson has allowed the second most fantasy points per route defended on this week’s slate. I expect Alex Smith to be forced to pass more than usual for the Chiefs to win on the road, which would lead to extra opportunity for all of Kansas City’s pass catchers.
Jaelen Strong - $3,000
The intriguing rookie out of Arizona State has begun to show up in box scores, with double-digit fantasy point performances in two of his last three games. The bump in production can be attributed to increased playing time due to recent injuries to Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington. Shorts should make it back this week, but Washington was still limited to side work at Thursday’s practice after suffering a hip injury in Week 17. If Washington doesn’t play, Strong will work opposite DeAndre Hopkins on the perimeter where the Chiefs have been burned by wide receivers for the majority of the season. Four game slates rarely require entrants to drop down to minimum salary plays when constructing lineups, which will keep Strong hidden from the masses. His upside is mostly theoretical at this point, but Strong goes 6’2’’, 217 lbs, showed off elite athleticism at the scouting combine, and has a multi-touchdown NFL game to his credit despite playing limited reps all season. If Washington suits up, it’s probably best to forget Strong. Alfred Blue is the least expensive source of 15-20 touches on the slate and makes sense as another against the grain option from the Texans, if you trust their defense will dominate Kansas City at home.
Steelers @ Bengals
Marvin Jones - $3,700
Those looking to invest in Bengals pass catchers will be shooting for A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, which should leave Jones a forgotten man. Since A.J. McCarron took over as the Bengals starter, Jones and Green have each seen an identical 26 targets. Jones’ target share will likely dip a bit with Eifert’s return to the lineup, but he’ll still enjoy favorable coverage as the Steelers focus on stopping Green (who has a history of destroying them). Something similar to the 6-61-0 line Jones posted when the Bengals and Steelers met in Week 14 is well within his range of outcomes, and the upside is there for more against a Pittsburgh team that led the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Martavis Bryant - $5,600
I’ll be very interested to see Bryant’s ownership in tournaments this weekend. The limited number of available wide receiver options guarantees he won’t be super low-owned, but how many entrants will be willing to take the risk on a player with a combined two receptions and four yards over his last two games? Here’s hoping recency bias is a factor because I plan on having about 35% exposure to Bryant. A high total point ceiling is all you should be concerned with when constructing lineups this week (as opposed to traditional point per dollar value at each roster spot). Bryant has a proven ceiling as high as any receiver’s on this slate, and that includes Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. I loved hearing Bryant get called out by Ben Roethlisberger this week and after Bryant accepted his quarterback’s challenge, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t motivated to bounceback. One thing’s for certain -- Bryant has the physical tools to dominate Cincinnati cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. Heath Miller’s two best fantasy games both came against the Bengals this season, if you’re looking for a true contrarian play from the Steelers.
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