The Fade: DraftKings Week 17 

The final week of the regular season is upon us and it shapes up to be a challenging one with plenty of question marks on playing time for starters and motivations for teams that have been eliminated from contention. Despite the week's challenges, we can still find some success by following the same principles we have used to guide us through Weeks 1 through 16, including which players we may want to take a pass on. Here's a sneak peek at one of Week 17's top fade candidates:

Devonta Freeman, $7,600

The highest-priced running back of the week may actually be in line to justify his price tag in the expected shootout between the Saints and Falcons. Although Freeman has cooled considerably from his blistering pace in Weeks 3 through 6, he still offers tremendous upside and brings an average of 22.4 points per game to the table. The Saints defense has resembled a sieve for much of the season, including Week 6 when Freeman contributed 156 combined yards and two scores for a cool 38.6 points. Despite the hefty price tag, Freeman will be highly owned and for good reason – there’s a solid chance that he comes in as Week 17’s most productive running back. Difficult as it may be, we’ll have to consider fading Freeman for a little differentiation for our lineups. 

You can check out the rest of Week 17's fade candidates here.  

Starting Stacks

Last week of the NFL regular season! Can you think of a better way to start the new year than to win a large GPP tournament? Here is a sample from our starting stacks article:

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Team Total 28.5 points

QB Cam Newton $7,500-TE Greg Olsen $6,800 Total Stack $14,300 (28.6% of salary)

QB Cam Newton $7,500-WR Devin Funchess $3,400 Total Stack $10,900 (21.8% of salary)

The Panthers are 10.5 point home favorites vs. the Buccaneers. The Panthers have one of the highest team totals of the week at 28.5 points. After suffering their first loss of the season last week, the Panthers will be motivated to regain their momentum before heading into the playoffs. The Panthers have additional motivation as they are still competing for the number one overall playoff spot in the NFC Conference. Cam Newton has been lights-out at home this season averaging 26.7 fantasy points/per game. Ted Ginn did not practice on Friday and is expected to miss the game due to a knee injury. This means that there will be some additional targets available for the Panthers receivers. Greg Olsen has been the most consistent weapon in the passing game averaging 15.6 fantasy points/per game. Devin Funchess is an alternative cheap option that should carry a low ownership percentage.

Here is the entire article:

Starting Stacks

Projecting Ownership Percentage: Week 17

Ownership percentage -- as it applies to constructing tournament lineups -- is one of the most misunderstood concepts in DFS. Projecting Ownership Percentage will explain the best strategy for factoring ownership percentage into your DFS decision making, and highlight this week's top tournament plays at each ownership tier. 

Here's an example of this week's player analysis:

Aaron Rodgers - $6,800 vs. MIN (5% Owned or Less)

Trusting the Packers offense has gotten me in plenty of trouble this year, but I can’t resist rostering Rodgers at $1,800 less than his Week 1 price. Despite his struggles this year, Rodgers still ranks as the cumulative QB8 and Green Bay is in a great bounceback spot after getting slaughtered on the road in Arizona last week. The stench of that ugly loss will keep most entrants off Rodgers, but he’s playing at home (where his fantasy points per game have increased by 25% over the last two seasons), the Packers are favored to win, and their implied team total of 25 points is enough to allow for a big game. Minnesota’s pass defense is solid, but 76% of the touchdowns they’ve allowed this season have come via the pass (third-highest in the league).

Week 17 Punt Plays

Week 17 Punt Plays

Every week John Lee, Cecil Lammey and I (Jeff Pasquino) discuss our punt plays for DraftKings on The Audible to close out our weekly DFS DraftKings podcast.  These are players that we are looking at to fill in a last spot on our lineups that are relatively cheap.  We have all been there - we have only a few bucks left and 1-2 spots to go in our roster, and we need a good value play to fill in that gap.  The rules we play by are that the player must not cost more than $3,500.

Just like always, I can only use one on the show - and I am not going to steal the thunder from our three picks that make the airwaves - but I will share a few guys that did not make it for the final cut.  Last week we all took the Giants, but only Rueben Randle paid off.  This week is trickier, but I think that there are some interesting values.  Who exactly? You have to listen!  So, tune in for my pick this week, and give the following list of additional punt plays for this week a read and tell me what you think, either in the comments or on twitter (@JeffPasquino).   Here goes:

Jonas Gray, RB, Jaguars ($3,000) - Rumor has it that the Jaguars want to get Gray a good look this week.  For this cheap, if he gets 15+ touches, cash and GPP value are both within reach against the Texans.

Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers ($3,500) - Not a sexy pick, but San Francisco has been playing pretty well of late, and Boldin gets plenty of targets.  Grabbing 4-6 passes for 50-70 yards will create plenty of value here against St. Louis.

Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings ($3,500) -  This is more of a late swap value play, as the Vikings may not be going all out on Sunday Night Football if they can get the Redskins in the Wild Card round.  Throw in that Adrian Peterson may lock up the rushing title and Minnesota can rest him in favor of McKinnon, who is healthier than ADP.

Steven Jackson, RB, Patriots ($3,300) - New England wants to get ready for another Super Bowl run, and what better way can they do that than to see what Steven Jackson has left in the tank in Week 17?  Running against Miami is a good test to see what he can offer for the postseason.

Jeremy Butler, WR, Ravens ($3,500) - Baltimore is truly playing out the string, but Butler has been seeing a lot of targets of late and both Butler and Ryan Mallett are playing for 2016 jobs.  Not a bad choice here for a player who is motivated against a Bengals team that will be forcing Baltimore to throw.

Jaelen Strong, WR, Texans ($3,000) - Could be worth the gamble to take the rookie wide receiver for Houston as they have nothing to play for and could be resting other guys while they get a look at the young talent.

Thanks for reading as always, and be sure to check out The DraftKings' Audible episode every week, and subscribe to The Audible on iTunes.  Good luck this week!

DraftKings Adds Lineup Uploader

DraftKings Adds Lineup Uploader

So this week, DraftKings added a new feature to their lineup management capabilities.  If you go to your My Lineups section, you will now see a new button labeled "Upload Lineups".  See Figure 1 below:

Figure 1:  The Upload Lineups Button (Upper Right)

After you click that button, you get to choose the sport and the slate of games from this menu:

Figure 2:  Sport and Slate Selection

Finally, the spreadsheet template is downloaded.  Just open it up (See Figure 3) and fill out your lineups, then save it. Once you have it all filled out, the "Upload CSV" file button will be in play from Figure 2.

Figure 3:  Creating a CSV list of lineups

Week 16 Red Zone Receiving Outlook

Just like last week, let's take a run through the best red zone receiving outlooks Week 16 has to offer, according to my projection model. The goal, as always, is to identify the guys with the best chances of finding the end zone today and tomorrow. (Check last week's entry at the link for an explanation of the factors that spit out these expectations.)

WIDE RECEIVER

	Gm	TmRZAt	RZTg	RZTD	RZTDPj
G. Tate	4	24	9	5	1.08
D. Baldwin	4	22	11	6	1.00
J. Maclin	4	9	5	3	0.95
E. Decker	4	24	11	3	0.88
B. Marshall	4	24	6	3	0.80
A. Brown	4	22	7	3	0.75
C. Johnson	4	24	6	3	0.72
A. Robinson	4	24	5	3	0.67
S. Watkins	4	12	4	2	0.56
T.Y. Hilton	4	23	4	2	0.55
D. Thomas	4	21	7	3	0.51
M. Wheaton	4	22	7	2	0.50

Some Observations

• Golden Tate is atop this list on the back of some good red zone usage, but also an unusually high success rate. The league average for red zone targets that become TDs in just a hair over 20%, and Tate has converted 56% over the last four weeks. Historically speaking, that's not really Tate's strength. There's a lot to like about Tate, but these results can skew his GPP appeal. He's more of a cash option than one from whom we can confidently expect a wild, multi-TD game.
• This chart assumes Doug Baldwin will suit up and play a full complement of snaps. If that doesn't happen, expect Tyler Lockett, who's just off this list at 0.41 TDs, to see an uptick. He's already operating in an offense that much prefers to throw near the goal line; if he's the No. 1 wideout for the day, he's chalk you need to follow at just $4,500.
• I like Michael Floyd as a GPP idea, but I can't help but note that he hasn't been a red zone presence at all over the last month. That's why I prefer John Brown, who's seen more looks from inside the 20 over that span than Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald combined.
• It's odd that Dorial Green-Beckham has yet to see a red zone target during his four-game mini-breakout. But the imposing touchdown maker has to break out at some point. If he can paid a TD with 4-5 basic receptions, he'll hold tournament value.

TIGHT END

	Gm	TmRZAt	RZTg	RZTD	RZTDPj
R. Gronkowski	4	9	3	2	0.69
D. Walker	4	11	4	2	0.64
J. Thomas	4	35	7	3	0.61
G. Barnidge	4	31	8	3	0.57
B. Watson	4	30	11	2	0.51
W. Tye	4	25	4	2	0.42

Some Observations

• Yes, you want Rob Gronkowski.
• Gary Barnidge has an awful matchup with a Kansas City defense that can erase a TE, but he's a legitimate touchdown machine who should benefit from game flow. And Johnny Manziel has been throwing like a maniac in the red zone.
• Two red zone giants in theory, Travis Kelce and Kyle Rudolph, have disappointed mightily in the TD column of late. But I like Rudolph's outlook against a Giants defense that struggles with tight ends, and Kelce is the kind of gifted option that can be squeezed into just about any GPP.

Follow @JustinHoweFF

The Contrarian: DraftKings Week 16 

As the season grows long in the tooth, finding the week's hidden gems can become that much more challenging. That's where The Contrarian comes in to help. Each week, we provide you with the top contrarian plays at each position and also dig into the games. matchups and situations that just may scare off the masses and provide the opportunity to snag a high upside player with a low ownership percentage. Here's one of Week 16's top contrarian selections:

Eli Manning, $5,600

The absence of Odell Beckham Jr. will keep Eli Manning well of the radar this week, but the underrated Manning just may surprise many and continue on his recent hot streak. Over his past two games, Manning has thrown for eight touchdowns versus only one pick, 582 yards - good enough for an average of 28.24 points per game. Granted, those numbers occurred with Beckham at his disposal, but Manning has some other weapons to lean on, namely Rueben Randle and Will Tye. Neither player will ever be confused with Beckham, but they have combined for four of Manning’s eight touchdown tosses over the past two and figure to see a healthy bump in targets against the Vikings. Both receiving options come in at a low price of $3,500, offering the opportunity for a low cost, under the radar stack that may be one of the top contrarian options of Week 16.      

You can check out the rest of this week's top contrarian selections here.