Starting Stacks Week 7

Having trouble deciding on who to stack in your DraftKings GPP tournaments this Sunday? Our Starting Stacks Article will provide some "chalk" plays and some "under the radar" plays. You can read the article here:

DraftKings Starting Stacks

Exposed Week 7

With the help of our defensive guru Aaron Rudnicki, we take a look at matchups between wide receivers and tight ends and how defenses will deploy to stop them. We look at some cheaper options that will allow you to load up your roster elsewhere, and some pricier ones that we think you should pay for. We also look at a few wide receivers and tight ends that we don't like this week.

You can read Exposed here.

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The Week 7 Cost Efficiency Report

The Cost Efficiency Report for Week 7 is here and live! Which overachieving quarterbacks are likely to keep their up-trends rolling along? Has Devonta Freeman become just as strong a top-salaried value as Le'Veon Bell and Adrian Peterson? Which bottom-salaried wideouts have the best outlooks to reach those magical multipliers for DFS value? You'll find those answers amidst gobs and gobs more value and efficiency reports for Week 7 right here.

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Week 7 DraftKings Roundtable

This week's discussion focused on emerging talents, matchups, and punt plays that will have DraftKings players shoehorn multiple "studs" into their lineups. We even shifted gears mid-topic at one point, which ended up resulting in a "bonus" topic of sorts.

Some excerpts are below, and the full article is here.

Hopkins on Fire

This topic discussed whether DeAndre Hopkins should be an "auto-play" this week.

John Lee: I did a quick evaluation of value based on projected receptions/game (targets/game x reception percentage) divided by salary, and Hopkins scored a 1.01 on that undefined scale by my methodology. There were four wide receivers above or equal to him for Week 7, including Steve Smith (1.16), Keenan Allen (1.14), Pierre Garcon (1.07), Golden Tate (1.02), and Jeremy Maclin (1.01). Smith should see a heavy dose of Patrick Peterson in coverage (pass), Allen is nursing a hip injury (hold), Garcon is attractive against Tampa Bay's 29th-ranked pass coverage unit (buy), Tate gets an underrated Vikings' passing defense (pass), and Maclin is on the league's concussion protocol (hold). With that in mind, only Pierre Garcon presents the kind of volume-based value that Hopkins brings to the table once again this week, which means that I will be looking for cheap, value-based plays (in addition to Garcon) to try to squeeze Hopkins' $8,600 salary into my cash games this weekend.

Gurley Automatic?
Here, we discussed how poor Cleveland's run defense is and how Todd Gurley's price this week is remarkably low considering his skill, opportunity, and matchup.

Phil Alexander: Phil Alexander: You might not find a better point per dollar value in DFS this year than Gurley at $5,000 vs. the Browns. Gurley ranked as the cumulative RB7 on DraftKings in Weeks 4 and 5 (his only two weeks as a starter), yet he's currently priced as the RB14. Cleveland's struggles defending running backs are well documented, and Gurley will be coming out of the bye well rested and white hot. He's posted at least 159 yards from scrimmage in each of his last two games. Both performances came on the road against strong defenses, and his explosion at Green Bay was especially impressive because St. Louis fell behind by two touchdowns in the first quarter. Negative game script hasn't been a problem for Gurley, but it helps that the table is set nicely for him this week. The Rams are playing at home, favored by 4.5 points, and projected to score a not-too-shabby 23.25 points. Cash game value (15 fantasy points) looks like Gurley's floor in this match-up.

Kansas City vs Wide Receivers
The Chiefs have been miserable at defending opposing wideouts this season, so I asked the guys if they were willing to let Antonio Brown back into the circle of trust.

John Mamula: While it currently looks like Landry Jones will be the starting quarterback this week, I think there is a decent chance Ben Roethlisberger will surprise many and be named the starter on Sunday morning. Reports stated that Roethlisberger looked good in practice on Wednesday. Pittsburgh needs to keep winning to keep momentum heading into the Bengals matchup next week. Mobility may be an issue for Roethlisberger, but he has played through injuries in the past and is as tough as they come at quarterback. Regardless who starts at quarterback, I am off Antonio Brown in cash games.

With everyone being unanimous that they wouldn't play Brown this week, I shifted gears and asked a "bonus" question about which cheap wide receiver was the best option between Martavis Bryant, Michael Floyd, or Willie Snead.

Chris Feery: In order, I would take Snead, Bryant, and then Floyd. As Justin said, Snead is the most reliable target on the Saints. The game script tells us we're looking at a close, high-scoring game. Snead is a great way to get a piece of it at an affordable price. Bryant gets the nod over Floyd on the outside chance that this past Sunday's performance was indicative of chemistry with Landry Jones. As for Floyd, $3,200 is a very intriguing price and his eight targets from last week is a situation worth keeping an eye on.

Punt Plays
Here, I asked the gang about some of the lower-priced players who could provide room for high-end players while also providing punch to the lineup.

Justin Howe: I could get on board with some [Ted] Ginn ownership. Olsen remains top dog by a mile, but he's also been swallowed whole by a few defenses thus far; teams want Cam Newton to beat them with downfield passing. Ginn is the only guy with any shred of certainty among those wideouts, and Newton trusts him; no one since Chad Henne in 2009 has leaned more on Ginn as a receiver. Top Eagles cornerback Byron Maxwell has come around a bit over the last few weeks, but as Phil points out, all it would take for Ginn to reach 4x value would be a line around 4-56-1. A few token catches and one long connection with Newton, and he's in the money.

Enjoy the full article. It was a great week of discussion! 

CFB Team Totals for the Saturday Early Slate on DraftKings

Team	Spread	Game Total	Team Total	Opponent	Run	Pass
Baylor	-37	80	58.5	Iowa State	5	5
Oklahoma	-14.5	73.5	44	Texas Tech	5	4
Michigan St	-16.5	63.5	40	Indiana	4	4
Arizona	-7.5	72	39.75	Wash State	5	3
Houston	-21.5	57	39.25	Central FL	4	4
N Carolina	-17.5	61	39.25	Virginia	4	3
Toledo	-14	62.5	38.25	U Mass	4	3
Bowling Green	-14	59	36.5	Kent St	4	2
Alabama	-15.5	54	34.75	Tennessee	4	3
Wash State	7.5	72	32.25	Arizona	2	5
Clemson	-6.5	56	31.25	Miami (FL)	3	4
Nebraska	-7.5	51.5	29.5	Northwestern	3	3
Texas Tech	14.5	73.5	29.5	Oklahoma	2	4
Texas	-6.5	50.5	28.5	Kansas State	3	2
Arkansas	-5.5	51	28.25	Auburn	4	2
Pitt	-7	49	28	Syracuse	3	2
Penn State	-6.5	47	26.75	Maryland	3	2
Wisconsin	-6.5	46	26.25	Illinois	3	2
Miami (FL)	6.5	56	24.75	Clemson	3	2
U Mass	14	62.5	24.25	Toledo	1	4
Indiana	16.5	63.5	23.5	Michigan St	2	3
VA Tech	-2.5	43.5	23	Duke	2	2
Auburn	5.5	51	22.75	Arkansas	3	1
Kent St	14	59	22.5	Bowling Green	2	2
Northwestern	7.5	51.5	22	Nebraska	2	1
Kansas State	6.5	50.5	22	Texas	2	1
Virginia	17.5	61	21.75	N Carolina	1	2
Iowa State	37	80	21.5	Baylor	2	2
Syracuse	7	49	21	Pitt	1	1
Duke	2.5	43.5	20.5	VA Tech	2	1
Maryland	6.5	47	20.25	Penn State	1	1
Illinois	6.5	46	19.75	Wisconsin	1	2
Tennessee	15.5	54	19.25	Alabama	2	1
Central FL	21.5	57	17.75	Houston	1	1

5 STAR MATCHUPS

Baylor Run and Pass- Baylor is leading the nation with both 7.1 yards per rush and 12.2 yards per attempt. Iowa State's defense ranks in the bottom half nationally against both the run and the pass. With a team total of 58.5, Baylor should approach season averages of 336 rushing yards and 371 passing yards. The key to whether Baylor's offensive stars are a great play or merely a good play will be whether Iowa State's offense can do enough to force Baylor to play it's starters into the fourth quarter. 

Oklahoma State Pass- The Cowboys are averaging 308 passing yards per game and face a horrible Kansas defense allowing 311 passing yards per game. Oklahoma State could pass for 400+ yards if motivated to do so or if Kansas' offense is able to keep the game competitive into the second half. Neither of those things are guaranteed, so there is some risk in investing too heavily in the Cowboys passing offense. But also real upside as this is a major mismatch on paper and the team total points to a big day for the Oklahoma State offense.

Oklahoma Pass- The Sooners have been incredibly efficient throwing the ball (9.7 yards per attempt) and have averaged 330 passing yards per game. Tech is giving up 285 passing yards per game and a healthy 8.1 per attempt. Expect Oklahoma to pick up big chunks of yardage through the air and to exceed their season average with 350+ passing yards. Baker Mayfield and Sterling Sharpe are very nice options Saturday.

Washington State Pass- The Cougars are underdogs after a pair of impressive victories. Washington State is the most pass-heavy team in the nation (73% pass and 57 passing attempts per game) and is averaging 417 passing yards per game. Arizona is vulnerable against the pass (allowing 7 yards per attempt) and the game script points to the Cougars having to be aggressive through the air. Luke Falk, Dom Williams, and Gabe Marks should have big games. 

Arizona Run- The Wildcats rank 8th nationally with 5.8 yards per rush and are also 8th nationally with 266 rushing yards per game. Washington State is giving up a healthy 5.0 yards per rush and over 200 yards rushing per game. With a team total of ~40, expect Arizona to put up big numbers on the ground. 

Houston Run- The Cougars are 6th nationally with 282 rushing yards per game. With dual threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. and tough back Kenneth Farrow, Houston presents matchup problems for all opposing rush defenses. UCF is a slightly below average rush defense and does not have the talent to take away both Ward and Farrow, so at least one of the two should have a big game on the ground on Saturday.

Toledo Run- The Rockets are averaging 205 rushing yards per game and face a horrible UMass defense that has allowed 231 rushing yards per game. As two touchdown favorites, the game script should be favorable for Toledo to rack up 250+ rushing yards with the duo of Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson leading the way.

4 STAR MATCHUPS

Bowling Green Pass- Bowling Green leads the nation with 432 passing yards per game. Kent State has a strong defense that should be able to hold the Falcons below their season averages, but BGSU's high-paced offense and deep, talented crew of pass catchers are always going to get theirs. Matt Johnson is always a top quarterback options as is Roger Lewis at wide receiver.

Oklahoma Run- Oklahoma's offense has been very balanced with a 53-47 run-to-pass ratio. However, the Sooners are averaging a surprisingly poor 3.8 yards per rush. Texas Tech hasn't stopped anyone and have given up 5.6 yards per rush and a ridiculous 255 rushing yards per game. If Oklahoma can build an early lead through the air as expected, they should have success with Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon on the ground if they try to slow it down a little and play keep away from the high-octane Red Raiders offense. With a huge 44 point team total, a few rushing touchdowns are likely as well.

Michigan State Run and Pass- Can the Spartans avoid a hangover after their stunning upset over Michigan? If they can, the offense should have a field day against a weak Indiana defense that just gave up 55 points to Rutgers last week. Michigan State would probably like to just pound the ball on the ground with LJ Scott; against an Indiana defense giving up 4.8 yards per rush, they should have some success doing just that. However, Indiana has shown that as underdogs they like to load the box and force teams to beat them through the air. The Spartans are averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and against an incredibly young Indiana secondary, Connor Cook and Aaron Burbridge should be able to do whatever they want. 

Alabama Run- Tennessee is just an average rushing defense. Alabama has been very successfull lately running the ball with Derrick Henry and rank in the top 30 nationally with 199 rushing yards per game. As more than two touchdown favorites, Alabama's offense could become especially run-heavy if they can build an early lead.

Arkansas Run- Auburn’s giving up a ridiculous 5.5 yards per carry and 205 rushing yards per game. Arkansas has ran the ball well this season with 4.8 yards per carry in a run-heavy offense (55% run ratio). Despite the lower team total, this is a sneaky good matchup and Alex Collins should have a big game.

North Carolina Run- The Tar Heels have been a force on the ground. UNC ranks 3rd nationally with 6.8 yards per rush. Virginia is giving up 4.8 yards per rushing attempt and are unlikely to slow dual-threat quarterback Marqise Williams and running backs Elijah Hood and  T.J. Logan. With so many likely focused upon the Greg Ward Jr., Seth Russell and some of the other big-name quarterbacks, Williams makes an especially intriguing GPP option.

Week 7 Punt Plays

Every week John Lee and I (Jeff Pasquino) discuss our punt plays for DraftKings on The Audible to close out our weekly DFS DraftKings podcast.  These are players that we are looking at to fill in a last spot on our lineups that are relatively cheap.  We have all been there - we have only a few bucks left and 1-2 spots to go in our roster, and we need a good value play to fill in that gap.  The rules we play by are that the player must not cost more than $3,500.

So who made my short list for this week?  Well, I can only use one on the show - and I am not going to steal the thunder from our three picks that make the airwaves - but I will share a few guys that did not make it for the final cut.  Some of them look pretty solid this week, so give them a read and tell me what you think, either in the comments or on twitter (@JeffPasquino).  Here goes:

Theo Riddick, RB, Lions ($3,400) - Today's winner of the Last Man Standing award goes to Theo Riddick, the lone healthy back for Detroit that isn't physically hurting or suffering from fumblitis.  Riddick could easily get 10 carries and 4+ catches this week against the Vikings.  If he gets 60 yards, that's 10 points right there and an easy cash (3x) value.  That's his floor, folks.  A tournament upside is just one scoring play away.

Albert Wilson, WR, Chiefs ($3,000) - Wilson scored last week for Kansas City, which certainly improves his value (and makes him something of a unicorn for Kansas City, who never seem to be able to get a wide receiver to the end zone).  Now that Jeremy Maclin is recovering from a concussion, Wilson could see the most targets of any Chief wide receiver this week.

Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys ($3,100) and Chrstine Michael, RB, Cowboys ($3,000) - Dallas is already talking about giving Michael more chances, and McFadden saw a ton of targets in Week 4 before the bye.  I expect Dallas to run a ton against the Giants, using the strength of the Cowboys with their offensive line to establish themselves early and get back towards the top of the woeful NFC East.  Both players should see enough touches to get 9-10 points quite easily, and a touchdown makes them hit tournament value with ease.

Interview with DraftKings $50,000 Winner Josh Fey

Ever wonder what it's like to bring home $50,000 playing DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football? Well this week I interviewed Footballguys.com subscriber Josh Fey and he shared some insight on what it as like. Josh finished second last week in DraftKings $1.5M Play Action GPP, landing him a $50,000 payday! Congrats Josh!

Here are some snippets from the interview. You can find the full article on Footballguys.com. 

FBG: Describe what it was like for that final five minutes. How did you feel as the clock ticked down to zero?

JF: Miserable - and awesome at the same time.  I finished 2nd to a guy that had the D/ST playing on Monday Night.  So I still had a chance to take 1st if the opposing team (Giants) scored a TD.  But there were also people creeping up as Philadelphia was running out the clock with Demarco Murray - who hit the 100 yard bonus in the final drive.  Not having any people going in the last game of the week left me feeling awfully helpless.  The last few plays were victory-formation - QB kneels, so I could relax for about the last 60 seconds.

...

FBG: DraftKings allows you to change your lineup any time before the game starts. Did you change or consider changing any players at the last minute? What were your thoughts behind why you did or did not do it?

JF: My last player played Sunday night - LeGarrette Blount.  I did consider switching him out, but he was a really cheap RB option (4400) so wasn't left with many choices that I thought had the upside that Blount had.  I felt pretty good about Blount given his history against the Colts and figured the game script would be good for him and ownership would be pretty low (ended up just under 14%, which was higher than I expected)

...

FBG: How many DraftKings contests do you play each week? How many cash games (Double Up or 50/50) do you play compared with tournaments each week?  Is there a strategy that you use in choosing your contest and if so, would you describe it?

JF: I play from $60-$120 a week (at least so far).  I'd say 85% of those are large field 50/50s a Double Ups.  There are some weeks I can't put in as much research time or don't feel as comfortable with my cash lineups that will make me be on the lower end of my weekly wager. 

If you want to read the full interview, you need to be a Footballguys.com subscriber. Click Here for the full article and info on how to join Footballguys.com

Keep checking back for more great DraftKings content and more interviews with big DFS winners!

Good luck this weekend!

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